来源：上海证券报微信公众号 编 者 按 2025年7月起，多种化工品、工业制品、原料价格掀起上涨浪潮，引发市场的广泛关注。价格跳动的曲 线背后，藏着市场最关切的三重追问：此轮涨价由何驱动？这波涨势能持续多久？产业链上下游企业的 业绩能否借此迎来修复契机，又将如何重塑行业竞争格局？ 春江水暖"价"先知。涨价，是经济脉络复苏中最灵敏的脉动信号。上海证券报微信公众号推出《市场 探"涨"》系列报道，意在凸显这一系列价格变化背后的市场活力与商业逻辑变迁。透过"涨"声，倾听复 苏脚步；在潮起潮落之间，探见未来可期。 继2月初上调价格后，分散染料再度提价。 记者获悉，2月24日，全球染料龙头浙江龙盛对分散染料产品实施新一轮调价，涨价幅度分为2000元/ 吨、4000元/吨两档，其中主力品种ECT300%分散黑每吨上调4000元。2月25日，闰土股份亦宣布对分散 染料价格进行适当上调，最高涨幅为4000元/吨。 原材料还原物涨价为核心原因 闰土股份称，染料产品价格由市场供需及原料价格等因素决定。还原物是分散染料的重要中间体之一， 其价格近两年来在较低位运行，自2026年元月下旬开始上涨，截至目前市场报价在7万元/吨左右。 从 ...

2025年7月起，多种化工品、工业制品、原料价格掀起上涨浪潮，引发市场的广泛关注。价格跳动的曲 线背后，藏着市场最关切的三重追问：此轮涨价由何驱动？这波涨势能持续多久？产业链上下游企业的 业绩能否借此迎来修复契机，又将如何重塑行业竞争格局？ 春江水暖"价"先知。涨价，是经济脉络复苏中最灵敏的脉动信号。上海证券报微信公众号推出《市场 探"涨"》系列报道，意在凸显这一系列价格变化背后的市场活力与商业逻辑变迁。透过"涨"声，倾听复 苏脚步；在潮起潮落之间，探见未来可期。 继2月初上调价格后，分散染料再度提价。 记者获悉，2月24日，全球染料龙头浙江龙盛对分散染料产品实施新一轮调价，涨价幅度分为2000元/ 吨、4000元/吨两档，其中主力品种ECT300%分散黑每吨上调4000元。2月25日，闰土股份亦宣布对分散 染料价格进行适当上调，最高涨幅为4000元/吨。 原材料还原物涨价为核心原因 这是分散染料企业月内第二次上调价格。 对于驱动本次涨价的原因，两家公司均对记者表示，主要系原材料价格的上涨，特别是一些重要中间体 涨价。 闰土股份称，染料产品价格由市场供需及原料价格等因素决定。还原物是分散染料的重要中间体之一， ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a price surge in dyes, driven by a significant increase in the prices of upstream key intermediates, with some rising over 50% [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The price of disperse dyes has been continuously increasing, with leading companies like Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtou Co. raising their quotes on February 8 [1] - UBS Securities indicates that after four years of adjustment, the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry are improving, predicting an upward cycle from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Demy Chemical (002054), a fine chemical enterprise, has a closely related textile chemicals business to the dye industry chain, suggesting that the improved industry outlook may positively impact the company's profitability [1] Group 3: Stock Performance - Demy Chemical's stock has shown significant volatility over the past week, with a price fluctuation range of 16.19% from February 6 to February 13 [1] - On February 9, the stock hit the daily limit up, increasing by 10.05%, followed by a further rise of 1.89% on February 12, before a slight decline to 10.62 yuan on February 13, down 1.39% [1] - On February 9, institutional investors net bought 24.94 million yuan worth of shares, indicating high short-term capital activity, with a financing purchase amount of 89.58 million yuan on February 12 [1] - Technically, the stock price has broken through the 20-day moving average of 9.39 yuan, with the MACD indicator maintaining a bullish signal, although attention is needed around the resistance level of 11.00 yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zhejiang Longsheng's competition and pricing strategy are undergoing changes, with disperse dye prices still in the early stages of an upward trend [1] - The prices of intermediates such as para-phenylenediamine are at the bottom of the cycle, indicating potential for upward movement [1] - The company's revenue and profit from the "Huaxing New City" project in Q4 2026 are expected to be confirmed, showing significant earnings elasticity [1] Group 2 - Despite the increase in disperse black prices from 16,000 yuan/ton to 21,000 yuan/ton since early January, the actual profit increase for disperse dye manufacturers is limited due to rising costs of intermediates [1] - There is still ample room for further increases in disperse dye prices, with expectations for a new round of price hikes after the Spring Festival [1] - The current market capitalization of the company may only reflect the anticipated rise in disperse dye prices, and any increase in the prices of intermediates like para-phenylenediamine could significantly enhance profit expectations [1] Group 3 - Assuming the company exports 20,000 tons of disperse dye, 4,000 tons of para-phenylenediamine, 3,000 tons of para-cresol, and 500 tons of reducing agents, each 10,000 yuan/ton price increase could boost profits by 1.5 billion yuan, 300 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 40 million yuan respectively [1] - The target price has been raised by 27% to 21.52 yuan, maintaining an "outperforming the industry" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The dye industry is expected to see a recovery in demand due to both domestic and international factors, with China maintaining its position as the world's largest producer, consumer, and exporter of dyes, with an annual production exceeding 900,000 tons [5][18] - The supply structure of dyes is improving, with leading companies possessing significant pricing power due to the elimination of smaller, less compliant enterprises [7][29] - The price increase of dyes is driven by the intermediate production process, benefiting companies with integrated supply chains [8][48] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The dye industry is characterized by diverse products and applications, with significant growth in downstream printing and dyeing fabric production, which is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.59% from 2018 to 2024 [20] - China's dye export volume is expected to reach 272,000 tons in 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, supported by a compound annual growth rate of 7.51% from 2020 to 2025 [23] Environmental and Regulatory Landscape - The dye industry faces stringent environmental regulations, leading to the gradual elimination of high-pollution, low-compliance small enterprises, thus optimizing the industry structure [26][29] - Recent regulatory changes have increased compliance costs for smaller players, further consolidating market share among larger firms [30] Intermediate Supply and Price Trends - The production of key intermediates, such as H acid and reducing agents, is critical for dye manufacturing, with recent supply disruptions leading to price increases [40][45] - The price of reducing agents has surged from 25,000 yuan/ton to approximately 50,000 yuan/ton, directly impacting the production costs of disperse dyes [43] Key Companies in the Industry - Zhejiang Longsheng is a leading enterprise with a dye production capacity of 300,000 tons and a strong integrated supply chain [51] - RunTu Co. has a well-established dye industry system with a total dye production capacity of 238,000 tons [53] - Annoqi focuses on differentiated dye products and is integrating AI technology into its production processes [54] - Jinhua Group has a dye production capacity of 95,000 tons and is expanding its product portfolio through strategic acquisitions [56]

Core Viewpoint - The dye industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by the rising costs of upstream intermediates, which is expected to continue in the short term and may accelerate industry consolidation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Several dye-related companies have announced price increases, with Zhejiang Longsheng Group reporting a rise of 5000 yuan/ton for certain disperse dyes [2]. - The price of key intermediates, particularly reducing agents, has surged to around 70,000 yuan/ton, contributing to the overall increase in dye prices [2]. - The current price increase is expected to last for 1-3 months, followed by a phase of high-level consolidation, with potential stabilization in the fourth quarter if demand does not improve significantly [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The rise in dye prices is anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation due to high raw material costs and stricter environmental regulations [4]. - Leading companies with integrated intermediate capabilities are likely to strengthen their market positions, potentially using a "volume compensates for price" strategy to expand their advantages [4]. - Companies without intermediate support may face profitability challenges due to high procurement costs and weak bargaining power, leading to a "high-price procurement, low-price sales" dilemma [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Companies lacking intermediate support need to seek breakthroughs by establishing long-term collaborations with intermediate suppliers or exploring high-end, functional, and environmentally friendly dye segments to avoid homogenization [5]. - Improvements in performance for companies without intermediate support will rely more on strategic adjustments and upgrades rather than an overall industry recovery [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the prices of dye intermediates, particularly reducing agents, have been rising since mid-January, leading to an increase in dye prices. This trend is supported by a concentrated supply and stringent safety and environmental regulations, which are optimizing the industry landscape. Current prices are at historically low levels, and cost pressures are expected to further transmit downstream, benefiting companies with stable market shares and related intermediate support [1][2][4]. Group 2 - The cost of intermediates is driving a rapid increase in dye prices. The price of reducing agents, a key intermediate for disperse dyes, has surged from 25,000 yuan/ton to around 70,000 yuan/ton since mid-January. Companies like Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtao Co. have announced price increases for disperse dyes, with Zhejiang Longsheng raising prices by 2,000 yuan/ton and Runtao Co. by 5,000 yuan/ton for certain products [2][3]. - The dye prices have been historically low due to intensified industry competition. By 2025, the average export price of disperse dyes is expected to decline by 6.66% year-on-year to $4.36/kg, marking the lowest level in nearly a decade [2][3]. - The supply of dyes is concentrated, with China being the largest producer, trader, and consumer of dyes globally, accounting for approximately 70%-75% of the world's total production. The top five dye-producing companies in China are projected to account for 61.07% of the total national output in 2024, an increase of 1.54 percentage points from 2023 [3][4]. Group 3 - The investment recommendation suggests that dye prices are at a bottom range, and changes in cost and strict regulations may improve industry conditions. Companies with stable market shares, high safety and environmental investments, and complete industrial chain support are likely to benefit. Recommended companies include Zhejiang Longsheng, with Runtao Co. suggested for further attention [4].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 强于大市 染料价格上行，一体化企业 有望受益 1 月中旬以来，还原物等染料中间体价格连续上涨，推动染料价格上行。染料 行业供给集中，高安全、环保监管推动行业格局持续优化，当前价格处于历 史较低水平，成本压力有望进一步向下游传导，份额稳定、拥有相关中间体 配套的企业有望充分受益。维持行业强于大市评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 ◼ 染料价格处于底部区间，成本端变化、严监管等外部因素或促进行业景气 度改善。行业集中度较高，且安全监管、环保政策等因素或对已有产能形 成制约，份额稳定、安全环保投入较高、产业链配套齐全的龙头企业有望 受益。推荐：浙江龙盛，建议关注：闰土股份。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 下游需求不及预期；环保与安全生产风险；行业竞争加剧。 相关研究报告 《化工行业 2026 年度策略》20260128 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：赵 ...

另一个还原物——染料中间体【间苯二胺】开始提价，弹性巨大！推荐华尔泰/浙江龙盛 各位领导好，龙盛和闰土调研最新反馈：染料中间体已经开始全面提价，除市场关注度较高的还原物外，染料最 关键的中间体间苯二胺也开始提价！ 我们预计本轮染料周期，核心中间体间苯二胺的价格会持续上行。 弹性：产能方面，浙江龙盛8万吨、华尔泰2万吨（公开数据），假设间苯二胺回到4-5万元的常态价格，弹性巨 大。 强烈推荐关注。 此外，昨日山西爆炸有望引发全国硝化装置检查，打击地下工厂，间苯二胺有望受益。 另一个还原物——染料中间体【间苯二胺】开始提价，弹性巨大！推荐华尔泰/浙江龙盛 各位领导好，龙盛和闰土调研最新反馈：染料中间体已经开始全面提价，除市场关注度较高的还原物外，染料最 关键的中间体间苯二胺也开始提价！ 近日，间苯二胺价格从1.2万元/吨上涨到1.5-1.6万元/吨，提价3000-4000元/吨。 历史上，间苯二胺常态价格为4-5万元/吨，历史高点10万元/吨以上（321爆炸），而连续几年的染料低谷，间苯二 胺打到了一万多的成本价。 近日，间苯二胺价格从1.2万元/吨上涨到1.5-1.6万元/吨，提价3000-4000元/吨。 历 ...

Group 1 - The dye and chemical sector has strengthened again, with companies like Yancheng Chemical Co., Ltd. and Huatai reaching their daily limit, while Jihua Group, United Chemical, Huilong Co., Ltd., Hangmin Co., Ltd., and Yayun Co., Ltd. also saw increases [1] - Zhejiang Longsheng has raised prices for certain disperse dyes, with the price of disperse black dye increasing by 5,000 yuan per ton as of February 8 [1] - Due to the recent rise in the price of reducing agents, Runtu Co., Ltd. has also seen the price of disperse black dye increase by approximately 5,000 yuan per ton [1]