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铁矿石:宏观风偏再提振,高位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the macro - risk appetite for iron ore is boosted again, and it will be in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 780.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32%. The position of I2605 was 534,905 hands, with an increase of 16,750 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of 65% Carajás fines (Carajas) was 874.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; 61.5% PB fines was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 61% Jimbobara fines was 748.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 56.5% Super Special fines was 677.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of 66% Langna ore and 65% Laiwu ore remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.6 yuan/ton to 108.0 yuan/ton; the basis against Jimbobara fines decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton to 49.6 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 18.0 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 79.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Jimbobara fines remained unchanged at 47.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 118.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7,859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6,043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]
铁矿石:宏观预期反复,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 02:29
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report indicates that iron ore is experiencing repeated macro - expectations and is in a wide - range shock state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 787.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.0 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.38%. The position was 473,608 lots, with an increase of 1,118 lots [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices (such as 65% Karara fines, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jinbuba ore) decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton, while 56.5% Super Special ore remained unchanged. Domestic ore prices (66% Langna ore, 65% Laiwu ore) remained stable [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (12601 vs Super Special) increased by 3.0 to 93.9, and the basis (12601 vs Jinbuba) increased by 0.8 to 44.2. Spreads such as 12509 - 12601 decreased by 5.0 to 15.5, and 12601 - 12605 decreased by 1.0 to 24.0. The difference between Karara fines and PB fines remained at 112.0, and the difference between PB fines and Super Special decreased by 2.0 to 108.0 [1]. Macro and Industry News - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on August 31, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of trend intensity being [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1].
铁矿石:短期利多兑现,上涨驱动放缓
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term positive factors for iron ore have been realized, and the upward driving force has slowed down [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Information**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 736.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan or - 0.07%. The previous day's position was 757,976 lots, with an increase of 13,617 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices decreased, with the price of 65% Carajás fines dropping 3 yuan to 863 yuan/ton, 61.5% PB fines down 5 yuan to 773 yuan/ton, 61% Jimbobara fines down 2 yuan to 738 yuan/ton, and 56.5% Super Special fines down 4 yuan to 642 yuan/ton. Domestic ore prices remained unchanged [4]. - **Spread**: The basis of 12505 contract against Super Special fines decreased by 10.4 yuan to 48 yuan/ton, and against Jimbobara fines decreased by 8.2 yuan to 17.3 yuan/ton. The spread between 12509 - 12601 increased by 1 yuan to 38.5 yuan/ton, and 12505 - 12509 increased by 6.5 yuan to 65 yuan/ton. The difference between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 2 yuan to 90 yuan/ton, PB - Jimbobara decreased by 3 yuan to 35 yuan/ton, and PB - Super Special decreased by 1 yuan to 131 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - As of the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4].