商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -4.0 | -0.53% | | | I2605 | | 748.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 540,573 | 12,089 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 878.0 | 873.0 | 5.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 750.0 | 752.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 702.0 | 705.0 | -3.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 638.0 | 640.0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 899.0 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -5.5 | -0.70% | | | I2605 | | 777.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 518,849 | -1,835 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 874.0 | 879.0 | -5.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 781.0 | 787.0 | -6.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 730.0 | 735.0 | -5.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 666.0 | 674.0 | -8.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 950 ...

1. Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 2. Market Quotes 2.1 Futures Contracts Quotes on January 15 - RB2605: Closed at 3160 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 754,088 lots and an open interest of 1,685,122 lots, a decrease of 6,339 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.16 billion yuan [5] - HC2605: Closed at 3307 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a trading volume of 326,133 lots and an open interest of 1,448,345 lots, a decrease of 530 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.00 billion yuan [5] - SS2603: Closed at 14415 yuan/ton, up 3.52%, with a trading volume of 489,832 lots and an open interest of 145,444 lots, an increase of 10,565 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.53 billion yuan [5] - I2605: Closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 252,986 lots and an open interest of 652,402 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and a capital outflow of 1.50 billion yuan [5] 2.2 Futures Contracts' Top 20 Long - Short Positions on January 15 - RB2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,064,999 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,065,708 lots, an increase of 5,112 lots, and the long - short difference was -12,008 lots, with a deviation of -1.13% [8] - HC2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,055,923 lots, a decrease of 37 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,059,878 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots, and the long - short difference was -2,684 lots, with a deviation of -0.25% [8] - SS2603: The top 20 long positions were 102,619 lots, an increase of 5,928 lots; the top 20 short positions were 114,495 lots, an increase of 9,908 lots, and the long - short difference was -3,980 lots, with a deviation of -3.67% [8] - J2605: The top 20 long positions were 25,469 lots, a decrease of 540 lots; the top 20 short positions were 27,514 lots, a decrease of 640 lots, and the long - short difference was 100 lots, with a deviation of 0.38% [8] - JM2605: The top 20 long positions were 250,835 lots, a decrease of 2,077 lots; the top 20 short positions were 345,552 lots, an increase of 11,642 lots, and the long - short difference was -13,719 lots, with a deviation of -4.60% [8] - I2605: The top 20 long positions were 411,151 lots, a decrease of 911 lots; the top 20 short positions were 433,889 lots, a decrease of 8,428 lots, and the long - short difference was 7,517 lots, with a deviation of 1.78% [8] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On January 15, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opened lower, fluctuated and declined, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and weakened again at the end of the session, closing at 813.0 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [7] - In the spot market on January 15, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0.7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 6 - 9 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract was moving downward, the K and J values turned back, and the D value continued to decline; the daily MACD indicator's red bar of the iron ore 2605 contract has been narrowing for 3 consecutive weeks [9] 3.2 Market Outlook - Supply side: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil have been declining for two consecutive weeks, with last week's shipments dropping by 1.333 million tons to 25.332 million tons. The arrival volume has been increasing in the past two weeks, with last week's arrival volume increasing by 1.64 million tons to 29.204 million tons. It is expected that the arrival volume may remain at a high level this week and then gradually decline [10] - Demand side: The total output of the five major steel products increased slightly again last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased for three consecutive weeks, returning to 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons. The resilience of iron ore demand is very strong. This is due to the resumption of production of some overhauled production lines after the New Year's Day holiday and the repair of steel profits. The profitability rate of steel mills has remained around 37% - 38% in recent weeks. The blast furnace profit of rebar has turned positive and continues to rise, and the production profits of rebar electric furnace and hot - rolled coil, although still negative, are close to the break - even point [11] - Inventory side: Currently, steel mills are restocking on - demand, and the available days of inventory decreased by 1 day to 19 days compared with last week. However, the restocking stage before the Spring Festival will start in mid - to - late January, and the restocking demand will boost the ore price to some extent. The port inventory has been accumulating since the fourth quarter of 2025, with the inventory at 45 ports reaching nearly 1.63 billion tons, a new high since April 2018. However, the port inventory is structurally differentiated, with more inventory in the hands of traders, and the proportion of steel mills' inventory continues to decline. There may be a supply gap for the medium - and low - grade iron ore favored by steel mills, resulting in strong prices [11] - Overall, the previous increase in ore prices was affected by the strong rise of the overall commodity market and the marginal strengthening of the iron ore's own fundamentals. Before the Spring Festival, the restocking demand will further support the ore price. It is expected that the ore price may rebound after a decline, but the high port inventory will also bring upward pressure, and the upward space is relatively limited. At least in the week before the Spring Festival, the ore price will remain resilient [12] 4. Industry News - On January 15, the central bank deputy governor Zou Lan said that the central bank will launch two policy measures. One is to lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to improve banks' enthusiasm for credit investment in key areas. The one - year interest rates of various re - loans will be lowered from the current 1.5% to 1.25% [13] - Starting from January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the re - loan and rediscount interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. After the reduction, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year agricultural and small - business re - loan interest rates will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively, the rediscount rate will be 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate will be 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool interest rate will be 1.25% [13] 5. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the May contract, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of steel mills' iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and shipping volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mills' inventory of five major steel products [15][21][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the gradual ebb of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable and rising shipments, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of futures contracts and the positive basis provide some support to the futures price. Overall, it shows a range - bound pattern mainly [4] Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated within the day, closing at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a decline rate of +0.13%. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 553,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were nearly 9.5 billion yuan. The disk price was in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 3 to 787, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 672. The main swap was at 104.2 (-0.7) US dollars/ton. Spot prices fell slightly, and swap prices also declined [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the disk was 819.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 18.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and there was also some support below the futures [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil weakened, especially in Brazil, while shipments from non - mainstream countries increased month - on - month. The current arrivals decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental protection and annual maintenance continued. Coupled with stricter environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and delays in blast furnace复产, molten iron continued to decline significantly and exceeded expectations. The profitability rate of steel mills remained flat month - on - month, and there was still an expectation of further weakening of molten iron. The release of restocking demand was still slow [2] - Inventory: Port unloading and warehousing accelerated, showing signs of further inventory accumulation. Inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The arrivals within the week increased, and the congestion situation improved. Steel mill inventories continued to decline. Against the background of the decline of molten iron, the daily consumption decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased. The spot price of iron ore was relatively firm, and steel mills actively reduced normal inventory and had a weak willingness to replenish further [2] Macroeconomic Factors - Overseas: The recent combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair replacement" in the US is conducive to the Fed's easing. The quality of economic data in January is expected to return to normal levels and provide more guidance for the market. The overseas macro - environment will continue to warm up in 2026. The "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy in the US is conducive to promoting economic prosperity. The ECB announced in December to keep interest rates unchanged and raised the GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as scheduled without radical tightening, raising the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and maintaining the forecast for 2026 [3] - Domestic: On December 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting deployed tasks for 2026, including urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks was still a highlight, with deployments for gas pipelines and drainage and flood prevention projects, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In addition, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The weakening of commodity retail was the main drag factor, while service consumption continued to improve. In terms of investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment continued to weaken, while exports performed well and remained an important support [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the macro - risk appetite for iron ore is boosted again, and it will be in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 780.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32%. The position of I2605 was 534,905 hands, with an increase of 16,750 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of 65% Carajás fines (Carajas) was 874.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; 61.5% PB fines was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 61% Jimbobara fines was 748.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 56.5% Super Special fines was 677.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of 66% Langna ore and 65% Laiwu ore remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.6 yuan/ton to 108.0 yuan/ton; the basis against Jimbobara fines decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton to 49.6 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 18.0 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 79.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Jimbobara fines remained unchanged at 47.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 118.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7,859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6,043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is under pressure with supply growth expected and weak demand becoming a reality, leading to a renewed weakness in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Performance**: On December 11, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opening with oscillations, then quickly falling, and slightly recovering in the afternoon, closing at 757.0 yuan/ton, down 1.30% [7] - **Spot Market**: On December 11, the main iron ore outer - market quotes rose 0.3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning back down and the D value continuing to decline; the daily MACD indicator's green bar has started to expand [9] - **Future Outlook**: Supply from Australia and Brazil is picking up and is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Demand is weak as the output of five major steel products has reached a new low this year, and the daily average hot - metal output has dropped to around 2.32 million tons. Steel mills are restocking as needed, with inventory available days at a relatively low level of around 20 days this year. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, reaching a new high since the end of February, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - BP interest rate cut in its December interest rate decision, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75%, and is predicted to cut rates by another 25 BP in 2026 [12] - According to the 2026 China Real Estate Market Trend Report, in a neutral scenario, the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new construction area is expected to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment is expected to decline by 11%. In the medium - to - long term, the average annual sales area of new commercial housing during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be maintained at 7 - 8 billion square meters, and the real estate market is expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment phase in the middle and late stages of the "14th Five - Year Plan" [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of ore, the shipping volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, port arrival volumes, domestic mine capacity utilization rates, and other relevant data related to the iron ore and steel industry [14][22][23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The fundamentals of iron ore continue to exert downward pressure. The supply remains high, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore market is expected to continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3][5][6]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Situation - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot prices declined. The main contract dropped from 809.5 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 6.11%. The spot price also decreased, with the Platts price index falling 4.30% to $104.5/ton, and the mainstream spot price at Qingdao Port dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The high - level decline of ore prices is due to factors such as weakened market sentiment, reduced demand from steel mills, and a weakened supply - demand pattern. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is still weakening, mainly pressured by the supply side [3]. - Overseas ore supply is active. As of the week of October 19, the arrival volume at 47 domestic ports was 26.763 million tons, still at a high level this year. The arrival volume in the third quarter increased significantly compared with the same period last year, making up for the reduction in the first quarter [3]. - The increase in domestic port arrivals is due to the active shipments of miners. The latest global iron ore shipment volume is 33.335 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The shipment volume in October was 88.8319 million tons, with month - on - month and year - on - year increases of 2.06% and 10.34% respectively. The cumulative annual shipment volume increased by 14.34 million tons, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil [3]. - In October, the average value of the Platts iron ore price index (CFR, 62% FE) was $105/ton. High ore prices encourage overseas miners to ship actively. With a high inventory of floating cargoes at sea, the subsequent arrival volume at domestic ports will remain high. Domestic mine supply has also increased, which will further suppress the iron ore price [4]. Demand Situation - Iron ore demand has weakened. The poor performance of steel demand during the peak season has led to steel mills reducing production, and the consumption of iron ore has declined. As of the week of October 17, the daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.59 million tons and 1.79 million tons respectively [5]. - Although the decline in iron ore demand is not large, the steel market's supply - demand pattern remains weak. After the holiday, steel demand has recovered slightly, but most varieties have not returned to pre - holiday levels, and some varieties have the lowest demand in the same period in the past five years [5]. - The downstream industries of steel have not improved, and the "Silver October" peak season may be lackluster. The steel inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and the subsequent de - stocking pressure is large. The profitability of steel mills is deteriorating, with the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills at 55.41%, having decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, a cumulative decline of 12.99 percentage points. Most steel products in North China are in a loss - making state, and only those in East China maintain a small profit. Therefore, the subsequent production enthusiasm of steel mills will decline, and iron ore demand is expected to continue to weaken [5][6].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: The iron ore market is affected by multiple events and shows a moderately strong and fluctuating trend. The trend strength of iron ore is 1, indicating a moderately positive view [1] Group 3 Summary based on relevant catalogs - **Fundamental tracking**: - **Futures**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 780.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The position was 447,365 lots, a decrease of 26,627 lots [1] - **Spot prices**: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 918 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 779 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 748 yuan/ton, unchanged; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 708 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Langna (66%) was 952 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu (65%) was 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Spreads**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special fines was 141.5 yuan/ton, up 4.6 yuan/ton; against Jinbuba fines was 49.1 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton. The spread between 12509 and 12601 was -40 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; between 12601 and 12605 was 21 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines was 139 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; between PB fines and Jinbuba fines was 31 yuan/ton, unchanged; between PB fines and Super Special fines was 71 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - **Macro and industry news**: Affected by the US government shutdown, the data on the change in non - farm payrolls in the US in September and the US unemployment rate in September, originally scheduled to be announced at 20:30 Beijing time, have not been released [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - and medium - term, and show a slightly weak oscillation trend intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the M20 line. The supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will oscillate at a high level [2]. - The iron ore futures price is relatively strong due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply is rising. The ore fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the high - valued ore price is still under pressure. The positive factors are the peak - season expectation and the support of varietal arbitrage funds. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillation, and the intraday trend is slightly weak oscillation. The key is to focus on the M20 line support. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level ore price oscillation [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has improved, but the iron ore supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. Ore demand is falling as steel mill production weakens and steel product contradictions accumulate with shrinking profits. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is increasing. The ore fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure. Positive factors include peak - season expectations and varietal arbitrage funds, and the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with attention on steel prices [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed a strong performance, with iron ore futures opening at 790.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 801.5 CNY, reflecting a 2.17% increase [1] - The total global iron ore shipment decreased by 151,000 tons to 30.467 million tons, while the port arrival volume also fell by 1.259 million tons to 23.819 million tons [1] - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased by 0.39 thousand tons to 240.32 thousand tons, indicating resilient demand despite a minor decline [1] Group 2 - Iron ore shipments and arrivals are expected to rise, but the overall supply remains weak, with steel mills actively replenishing stocks due to favorable profit margins [2] - The impact of typhoons is subsiding, leading to a slight increase in port inventories, while the fundamental outlook for iron ore remains strong [2] - The black metal sector's price movements are primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with iron ore prices expected to stabilize at high levels due to sustained production from steel mills [2]