商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 780. 5 | -3.5 | -0. 45% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 447. 365 | -26.627 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 讲口矿 | 卡粉（65%） | 918. 0 | 917.0 | 1.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 779.0 | 779.0 | 0. 0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - and medium - term, and show a slightly weak oscillation trend intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the M20 line. The supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will oscillate at a high level [2]. - The iron ore futures price is relatively strong due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply is rising. The ore fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the high - valued ore price is still under pressure. The positive factors are the peak - season expectation and the support of varietal arbitrage funds. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillation, and the intraday trend is slightly weak oscillation. The key is to focus on the M20 line support. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level ore price oscillation [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has improved, but the iron ore supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. Ore demand is falling as steel mill production weakens and steel product contradictions accumulate with shrinking profits. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is increasing. The ore fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure. Positive factors include peak - season expectations and varietal arbitrage funds, and the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with attention on steel prices [3].

8月12日，国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘红。其中，铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报790.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，铁矿石主力最高触及801.5元，下方探低787.5元，涨幅达2.17%。 中财期货分析称，供给端，铁矿石发运、到港均有所上升，预计后续铁矿石发运、到港将有所回升，供 应端整体偏弱。需求端，钢厂按需补库，日均铁水产量持续高位，钢厂在利润较好的情况下生产积极性 整体偏强，需求端整体偏强。库存端，台风影响陆续结束，预计疏港量将有所回落，港口库存将小幅累 库。现阶段铁矿石基本面现实偏强，需重点关注钢厂的限产节奏与力度，预计铁矿石价格震荡运行。 建信期货表示，现阶段黑色板块盘面价格走势主要受到宏观情绪的影响，反内卷相关品种炒作情绪依然 存在，但铁矿受到的影响几乎可以忽略不计，价格已逐步回归基本面，考虑到钢厂维持高产为矿价提供 支撑，预计短期矿价将呈现高位盘整运行走势。 目前来看，铁矿石行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于铁矿石后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 华联期货指出，本期外矿发运量小幅回落，全球铁矿发运总量环比减少15.1万吨至3046.7万吨，同时， 外矿到港量也有所回 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to see the price fluctuate at a high level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The core logic is that the fundamental expectation is weakening, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of the ore price. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA20 line [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. However, steel mills' profitability is still good, and ore demand remains at a relatively high level, providing some support for the ore price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, while the shipments of overseas miners have decreased, but the reduction is not significant under high ore prices. Domestic ore production has contracted again. It is expected that the overall ore supply will increase steadily. - Currently, the resilience of ore demand is acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price. But as the supply is increasing, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory consolidation state. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Although the steel mill production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore has decreased but remains at a high level within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills provides strong support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased month - on - month, but after the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of miners continue to decrease, the overseas ore supply contracts, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable. The supply side is relatively favorable. The ore demand has certain resilience, and with the optimistic sentiment remaining, the ore price is supported to continue the upward - oscillating trend in the short term. However, the fundamentals of the ore have not improved substantially under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upside potential should be cautiously optimistic, being alert to the switch of trading logic to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner. There are specific explanations for calculating the rise and fall amplitude and definitions of different trends [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, but ore consumption remains high within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills supports the ore price. Port arrivals increase, but miner shipments decrease, overseas supply contracts, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The demand has resilience, and the short - term ore price is supported to run with a slight upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and caution is needed for the upside potential [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, the US Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the "big and beautiful" bill with a vote ratio of 51 to 49. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the inventory at domestic ports increased slightly. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased, and the demand for iron ore remained supported. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are mixed, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA pulled back from high levels. Operationally, conduct short - term trading in the range of 723 - 710, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 715.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume was 668,751 lots, down 11,149 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 57,432 lots, down 7,849 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 2,800 lots, down 200 lots. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 94.05 US dollars/ton, down 0.23 US dollars [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 754 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 665 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 39 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 94.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.10 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.60, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 779 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 3,357.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 tons. The inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 36.07 tons. The inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88.77 tons. The monthly iron ore import volume was 9,813 tons, a decrease of 501 tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 41.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines was 65.69%, a week - on - week increase of 2.14%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 53.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49 tons. The BDI index was 1,521, down 32. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 21.16 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 6.79 US dollars/ton, down 0.64 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.55%, down 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.87%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.75%, down 1.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.38%, down 0.10% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,882.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,363.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199.7 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,217.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.7 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to face downward pressure, with the price likely to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line and the change in hot metal [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel mills increase maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in ore terminal consumption with further decline potential. Although port arrivals and miners' shipments have decreased, overseas ore is still at a high level due to miners' end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. Based on shipping schedules, subsequent arrivals are expected to increase, and domestic ore supply is weakly stable. The supply of ore has remained high recently. The supply - demand pattern has not improved, and the futures price discount is being repaired. Therefore, the ore price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures contract 2509 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the support level of MA5. The bullish sentiment dominates, leading to a slightly bullish oscillation of ore prices [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the futures price is deeply at a discount, and the market sentiment has warmed up, so the downward resistance of ore prices is large. In the short - term, the ore prices will continue the trend of oscillating higher, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly bullish. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment dominates, causing the ore prices to oscillate strongly. The support level of MA5 should be focused on [1]. Market Driving Logic - Macro - level positive news reappears, and the market sentiment has warmed up, leading to the stabilization of ore prices. The demand for iron ore continues to decline, but the decline is limited and remains at a high level within the year. During the off - season, the steel mill production weakens, and the demand - side positive effect is not strong [2]. - Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments have both increased. With the expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush, the overseas ore supply remains at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output has decreased, the decrease is not sustainable. Overall, the iron ore supply is increasing [2]. - Currently, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak - stable situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ore prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the deep discount of the futures price and the warming market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. In the short - term, the bullish atmosphere dominates, and the ore prices will continue to oscillate higher. The performance of finished steel products should be observed [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: This week, the iron ore futures market oscillated. By Friday's close, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 699 yuan/ton, a 1.27% decline from last week. The spot market fluctuated with the futures. The 62% Platts Index dropped to $98.95/ton, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 761 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply**: The latest Mysteel data shows that the global iron ore shipment volume this period was 2.9255 million tons, a 17,800 - ton increase from the previous period. Australia's shipment volume increased significantly, while Brazil's decreased. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.3253 million tons, a 200,200 - ton decrease [4] - **Demand**: Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills found that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.33%, a 0.77% increase from the previous period and a 4.60% increase year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a 1.45% increase from the previous period and a 6.07% increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period and a 6.93% increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 244,350 tons, a 4,230 - ton increase from the previous period and a 15,630 - ton increase year - on - year [4] - **Inventory**: Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 14.261 million tons, a 205,000 - ton increase from the previous period, indicating a trend of inventory accumulation. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327,920 tons, an 18,410 - ton increase [5] - **Overall Situation**: Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5] 3. Strategy Summary - Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5]