投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 基本面预期走弱，矿价震荡调整 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面有所走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下降，但目前钢厂盈利状况依旧良好， 矿石需求维持相对高位，给予矿价一定支撑。不过，国内港口矿石到货低位回升，而海外矿商发运迎 来下降，但高矿价下减量持续不强，相应的内矿生产再度收缩，预计矿石整体供应将稳中有升。目前 来看， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 现实矛盾不大，矿价震荡走高 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面表现平稳，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗有所减量，但仍处年内高位，且钢厂盈利 状况较好，继续给予矿价强支撑。与此同时，港口到货环比增加，但财年末冲量结束后矿商发运延续 减量，海外矿石供应收缩，相应的内矿生产弱稳，供应端相对利好，关注矿商发运变化情况。目前来 看， ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/6/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 715.50 | -1.00↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 668,751 | -11149↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 25.5 | -1.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -57432 | -7849↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 2,800.00 | -200.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 94.05 | -0.23↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 773 | +2↑ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 754 | +1↑ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 665 | +1↑ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 基本面在走弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面延续走弱，淡季钢厂检修增多，矿石终端消耗持续回落，且后续仍有下降空间，需 求弱势格局延续。港口到货和矿商发运均有所下降，但财年末矿商冲量，海外矿石依旧位于年内高位， 按船期推算后续到货将回升，而内矿供应弱稳运行，矿石供应近期维持高位。目前来看，铁矿石供需 格局并 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures contract 2509 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the support level of MA5. The bullish sentiment dominates, leading to a slightly bullish oscillation of ore prices [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the futures price is deeply at a discount, and the market sentiment has warmed up, so the downward resistance of ore prices is large. In the short - term, the ore prices will continue the trend of oscillating higher, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly bullish. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment dominates, causing the ore prices to oscillate strongly. The support level of MA5 should be focused on [1]. Market Driving Logic - Macro - level positive news reappears, and the market sentiment has warmed up, leading to the stabilization of ore prices. The demand for iron ore continues to decline, but the decline is limited and remains at a high level within the year. During the off - season, the steel mill production weakens, and the demand - side positive effect is not strong [2]. - Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments have both increased. With the expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush, the overseas ore supply remains at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output has decreased, the decrease is not sustainable. Overall, the iron ore supply is increasing [2]. - Currently, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak - stable situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ore prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the deep discount of the futures price and the warming market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. In the short - term, the bullish atmosphere dominates, and the ore prices will continue to oscillate higher. The performance of finished steel products should be observed [2].

研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|铁矿周报 2025-04-27 市场情绪反复，矿价震荡运行 策略摘要 宏观上，本周美国对华关税表态反复，政策不确定性扰动市场交易情绪，铁矿石波动放 大。供应方面，本期铁矿石全球发运量小幅回升，近期铁矿发运窄幅震荡，内矿产量环 比下降，铁矿供给压力有所缓解。需求方面，本期五大材产量有所回升，延续去库趋势。 钢厂盈利率回升，铁水产量增长至年内高位，铁矿石需求相对旺盛。库存方面，本期铁 矿石港口库存有所上涨。整体来看，铁水增产空间有限，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾不突出， 关税对钢材出口影响预期仍在，且国内粗钢供给端存在一定变化，持续关注供给侧变化 对产业链的影响，关注关税变化和节前下游补库情况。 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 ...