1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Thread Steel**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, overall steel supply and demand are relatively loose, and weak reality exerts pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory levels are high, supply and demand changes follow seasonal patterns, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market will continue to suppress the market in the medium term, and there is some pressure on supply and demand, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories have accumulated, steel mills are consuming inventory and purchasing on demand, supply has decreased this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The negotiation on iron ore between China and Australia has escalated, which has pushed up ore prices in the short term. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may put emotional pressure on the market, so operate with caution [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Except for some coking enterprises in Hebei that have limited production, the operation in other regions has remained stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills' blast furnaces limited production, molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term, steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production intensively, and the average daily output of mines has continued to increase month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][16][17]. - **Silicomanganese**: The operating rate in the production area remains low, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. The quotes of some mainstream manganese mines in April continue to rise, providing strong support for the cost side. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has been launched one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation, production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, the current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, the daily melting volume is 148,500 tons, and in the face of weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventory. Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, and the demand for heavy soda ash lacks support. The rise in energy prices has led to an overall increase in costs, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Thread Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices of thread steel futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,174, 3,119, and 3,147 respectively, with price increases of 33, 31, and 32 respectively. The latest prices of spot thread steel in different regions such as Tangshan, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,100, 3,220, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 40 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of thread steel 01 in Shanghai is 46, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of thread steel 05 in Shanghai is 101, with a decrease of 1; the latest basis of thread steel 10 in Shanghai is 73, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of RB 10 - 01, RB 01 - 05, and RB 05 - 10 are -27, 55, and -28 respectively, with changes of -1, 2, and -1 respectively [2]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: The latest prices of hot rolled coil futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,291, 3,270, and 3,282 respectively, with price increases of 28, 40, and 38 respectively. The latest prices of spot hot rolled coil in different regions such as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,180, 3,260, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 50 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of hot rolled coil 01 in Shanghai is -31, with an increase of 2; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 05 in Shanghai is -10, with a decrease of 10; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 10 in Shanghai is -22, with a decrease of 8. The latest spreads of HC 10 - 01, HC 01 - 05, and HC 05 - 10 are -9, 21, and -12 respectively, with changes of 10, -12, and 2 respectively [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices of iron ore futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 741, 785, and 758 respectively, with price increases of 12, 13, and 12 respectively. The latest prices of PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder are 773, 751, and 798 respectively, with price increases of 9, 11, and 0 respectively [6]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of PB powder for 01 is 83, with a decrease of 2; the latest basis of PB powder for 05 is 40, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of PB powder for 09 is 66, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of i 01 - 05, i 05 - 09, and i 09 - 01 are -44, 27, and 17 respectively, with changes of -13, 1, and 12 respectively [6]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,906.0, 1,740.0, and 1,803.5 respectively, with price increases of 50.5, 44.5, and 41.5 respectively. The latest prices of spot coke in different regions such as Lvliang, Rizhao, and Handan are 1,230, 1,470, and 1,370 respectively, with no price changes [11]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 74.0%, a decrease of 0.4%; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 227.6 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 110.3 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.3 tons, a decrease of 3.9 tons; the inventory available days are 12.5 days, an increase of 0.1 day; the port coke inventory is 203.1 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons; the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is 17.0 yuan, an increase of 24.0 yuan [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,468.0, 1,168.0, and 1,251.5 respectively, with price increases of 42.0, 45.0, and 35.0 respectively. The latest prices of spot coking coal in different regions such as Lvliang, Gujiao, and Meng 5 are 1,310, 1,230, and 1,175 respectively, with no price changes [15]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coal washing plants is 26.6%, an increase of 3.8%; the daily average clean coal output of sample coal washing plants is 19.9 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 50.4 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons; the coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 796.2 tons, a decrease of 33.3 tons; the inventory available days are 11.9 days, a decrease of 0.4 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 775.6 tons, a decrease of 16.8 tons; the inventory available days are 12.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days; the total port coking coal inventory is 267.7 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons [15]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: The latest prices of ferrosilicon futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5,960, 5,868, and 5,940 respectively, with price increases of 58, 0, and 22 respectively. The latest prices of silicomanganese futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 6,248, 6,132, and 6,184 respectively, with price increases of 26, 2, and 6 respectively. The latest prices of spot ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions have different price changes [18]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08%; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is 26.55%, a decrease of 1.77%; the output of 187 silicomanganese enterprises is 195,860 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons; the inventory of 63 silicomanganese enterprises is 387,300 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 96,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 66,280 tons, a decrease of 4,120 tons [18]. Glass - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 are 1,280, 1,104, and 1,211 respectively, with price increases of 25, 17, and 17 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 368, an increase of 213.1; the main contract's open interest is 117, a decrease of 9.1 [22]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of glass in different regions such as Hubei, China, and East China are 1,090, 1,137, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The daily melting volume is 146,900 tons, a decrease of 0.16 tons; the inventory is 7,601 ten - thousand weight boxes, an increase of 2,066 ten - thousand weight boxes [22]. Soda Ash - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 are 1,358, 1,276, and 1,330 respectively, with price increases of 26, 34, and 31 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 373, an increase of 233.8; the main contract's open interest is 109, a decrease of 5.9 [26]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of soda ash in different regions such as Shahe, East China, and Central China are 1,260, 1,230, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The operating rate is 0.0%, a decrease of 86.82%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 146,925 tons; the enterprise inventory is 189.4 tons, an increase of 30.64 tons [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 10, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. After opening, it quickly declined, then fluctuated and rebounded, turning from a decline to a rise, closing at 784.0 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [7] - Currently, in terms of fundamentals, the shipments from Australia and Brazil declined last week. Affected by weather conditions in the first quarter, the overall shipment volume is at a relatively low level. The arrival volume rebounded last week and may oscillate at a moderately low level in the future [10] - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output before the Spring Festival slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons, and the demand remained resilient. After the festival, it continued to rise in the first week and then declined, mainly due to production restrictions of some steel enterprises during the Two Sessions [10] - Overall, although it is still the off - season for demand, the current profit performance is not bad. The profit per ton of blast furnace steel for rebar and hot - rolled coils is in the positive range. Driven by profit, the resumption of production may accelerate after the Two Sessions [11] - In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks sufficiently before the festival, and the inventory decreased significantly after the holiday. It is expected that the available days of inventory will continue to decline to about 20 days. Port inventory has slightly increased, mainly affected by the decline in arrival volume and low downstream production during the holiday. Considering that the arrival volume in March will still oscillate at a medium - low level, while the production rhythm of downstream steel enterprises will gradually resume, it is expected that the port inventory will remain at about 1.7 billion tons, still at a historical high [11] - Generally speaking, the supply in the first quarter is relatively tight, while the demand side still faces certain policy pressure during the Two Sessions, but the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the iron ore price has started to rebound. After the geopolitical disturbances gradually subside, the fundamentals may boost the iron ore price to continue to strengthen periodically, but the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 10, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were raised by 0.4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were lowered by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - In terms of technical analysis, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend. The J - value turned down, while the K - value and D - value continued to rise. The red bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract has been expanding for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined last week. Affected by weather in the first quarter, the overall shipment volume is at a low level. The arrival volume rebounded last week and may oscillate at a moderately low level [10] - Demand: Before the Spring Festival, the daily average pig iron output slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons. After the festival, it continued to rise in the first week and then declined, mainly due to production restrictions during the Two Sessions. Currently, although it is the off - season, the profit is good, and the resumption of production may accelerate after the Two Sessions [10][11] - Inventory: Steel mills' pre - holiday inventory decreased significantly after the holiday, and the available days of inventory are expected to decline to about 20 days. Port inventory has slightly increased, and it is expected to remain at about 1.7 billion tons [11] 3.2 Industry News - According to Xinhua News Agency, the spokesman of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said that in case of an attack on Iran, Iran would not allow "enemies and their allies" to export oil from the region [12] - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran responded to Trump's remarks on the Iranian situation, saying that the end of the war would be decided by Iran [12] - The actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to transportation disruptions, and Saudi Arabia was forced to divert to the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco recently provided about 4.6 million barrels of spot crude oil through a rare tender. The tender in the spot market reflects market pressure [12] - According to CCTV International News, Trump said in a phone interview that the war might end soon [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the available days of steel mills' iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mills' inventory of five major steel products [14][20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash [1] - **Cautiously bullish**: Iron ore, ferromanganese, ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, and the overall supply and demand of steel are relatively loose. The high supply of raw materials and weak reality exert pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, the absolute inventory level is high, supply and demand changes conform to seasonal characteristics, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market still suppresses the market in the medium term, and there is certain pressure on supply and demand. However, the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories are accumulating, steel mills are consuming inventories and purchasing on demand. Supply has shrunk this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The escalation of iron ore negotiations between China and Australia has pushed up ore prices periodically. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may exert emotional pressure on the market, so cautious operation is required [1][8] - **Coke**: Except for some coke enterprises in Hebei being restricted in production, the operation in other regions remains stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills restricted blast furnace production, and molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term. Steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventories is insufficient. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is required [1][12] - **Coking coal**: Domestic coal mines are resuming production intensively, and the daily output of mines continues to rise month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventories is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand tend to be loose, the short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, and cautious operation is required [1][16] - **Ferromanganese**: The production area's operating rate remains at a low level, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventories have decreased month-on-month. Some mainstream manganese mines' quotes for April continue to rise, and the cost side provides strong support. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to a certain extent [1][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventories have decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders is starting one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to a certain extent [1][19][20] - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation. Production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a daily melting volume of 148,500 tons. Under weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventories. The recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23] - **Soda ash**: The in-plant inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, with insufficient support for heavy soda demand. The rise in energy prices has driven up the overall cost, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the latest price of rebar 01 is 3,174 with a rise of 33, and the latest price of hot-rolled coil 01 is 3,291 with a rise of 28 [2] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Rebar demand is weak, and molten iron production is high, resulting in relatively loose supply and demand. Hot-rolled coil production and demand are stable, and inventory is high [1][4] - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the conflict between the US and Iran and weak reality, the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices have increased, and spot prices and related indexes have also changed. For example, the latest price of iron ore 01 is 741 with a rise of 12, and the latest price of PB powder is 773 [6] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Molten iron production is expected to rebound, port inventories are accumulating, and supply has shrunk this period, with improved fundamentals [1][8] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, but the sharp decline in the crude oil sector may bring emotional pressure [1][8][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices have increased, and spot prices are relatively stable. For example, the latest price of the coke 1-month contract is 1,906.0 with a rise of 50.5 [11] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Supply is relatively stable except for some restrictions in Hebei, and demand has decreased due to blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, with insufficient inventory replenishment willingness [1][12] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][12][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices have increased, and spot prices are mostly stable. For example, the latest price of the coking coal 1-month contract is 1,468.0 with a rise of 42.0 [15] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing due to concentrated resumption of production in domestic coal mines, and demand has decreased due to the decline in molten iron production, with overall loose supply and demand [1][16] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][16][17] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase. For example, the latest price of ferromanganese 01 is 6,248 with a rise of 26, and the latest price of ferrosilicon 01 is 5,960 with a rise of 58 [18] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Ferromanganese production area's operating rate is low, demand is increasing, and inventories are decreasing. Ferrosilicon supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventories are decreasing [1][19] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, with support from fundamentals and low valuation despite volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][19][20] 3.6 Glass - **Price Information**: Glass futures prices have increased, and spot prices are relatively stable. For example, the latest price of FG01 is 1,280 with a rise of 25 [22] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and a need for further supply reduction [1][23] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with the market affected by crude oil price fluctuations [1][23][24] 3.7 Soda Ash - **Price Information**: Soda ash futures prices have increased, and spot prices have different degrees of increase. For example, the latest price of SA01 is 1,358 with a rise of 26 [26] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Inventories are at a record high, production is at a neutral level, and demand is weak [1][27] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with short-term fluctuations due to rising energy costs [1][27][28]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report focuses on the iron ore market, stating that it is waiting for steel mills to resume production, and the iron ore price rebounds at a low level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 is 752.0 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of -0.20%. The yesterday's position is 525,573 hands, with a change of -7,288 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), Jinbuba (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all decreased, while the prices of domestic ores such as Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special decreased by 1.8 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 0.7 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 remained unchanged at 20.5, and the spread of I2609 - I2701 increased by 0.5 to 14.0. The spreads of Carajás fines - PB, PB - Jinbuba, and PB - Super Special all changed to some extent [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened at 3:00 p.m. on March 4 in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing [1]. - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Policy in this City" on February 25, which came into effect on February 26, 2026 [2]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, with the range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish, and 2 represents the most bullish [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates a warming of the iron ore market, with prices expected to fluctuate upwards [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 748.5 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.53%). The yesterday's position was 540,573 hands, with an increase of 12,089 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás Fine (65%) was 878.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton; PB (61.5%) was 750.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba (61%) was 702.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton; Super Special (56.5%) was 638.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 899.0 yuan/ton and 817.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special increased by 1.8 yuan/ton to 91.8 yuan/ton, and against Jinbuba increased by 0.8 yuan/ton to 69.5 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 16.5 yuan/ton, and I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 11.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás Fine - PB increased by 7.0 yuan/ton to 128.0 yuan/ton, PB - Jinbuba increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 48.0 yuan/ton, and PB - Super Special remained unchanged at 112.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust the local real - estate policy, which took effect on February 26 [1] - On February 25, it was reported that some steel enterprises in North China had received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions. They were required to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30% [2] - On February 24, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that the two sides of China and the United States were in communication regarding President Trump's visit to China [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is in a game between expectations and reality, with ore prices fluctuating in a narrow range [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.70%. The持仓 was 518,849 hands, a decrease of 1,835 hands [1] - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices, including Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jimbobara fines (61%), and Super Special fines (56.5%), all decreased, while domestic ore prices of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.2 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jimbobara fines increased by 0.1 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts and different ore types also changed [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [1] - Many real - estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters city regularly [1] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]

1. Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 2. Market Quotes 2.1 Futures Contracts Quotes on January 15 - RB2605: Closed at 3160 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 754,088 lots and an open interest of 1,685,122 lots, a decrease of 6,339 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.16 billion yuan [5] - HC2605: Closed at 3307 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a trading volume of 326,133 lots and an open interest of 1,448,345 lots, a decrease of 530 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.00 billion yuan [5] - SS2603: Closed at 14415 yuan/ton, up 3.52%, with a trading volume of 489,832 lots and an open interest of 145,444 lots, an increase of 10,565 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.53 billion yuan [5] - I2605: Closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 252,986 lots and an open interest of 652,402 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and a capital outflow of 1.50 billion yuan [5] 2.2 Futures Contracts' Top 20 Long - Short Positions on January 15 - RB2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,064,999 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,065,708 lots, an increase of 5,112 lots, and the long - short difference was -12,008 lots, with a deviation of -1.13% [8] - HC2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,055,923 lots, a decrease of 37 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,059,878 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots, and the long - short difference was -2,684 lots, with a deviation of -0.25% [8] - SS2603: The top 20 long positions were 102,619 lots, an increase of 5,928 lots; the top 20 short positions were 114,495 lots, an increase of 9,908 lots, and the long - short difference was -3,980 lots, with a deviation of -3.67% [8] - J2605: The top 20 long positions were 25,469 lots, a decrease of 540 lots; the top 20 short positions were 27,514 lots, a decrease of 640 lots, and the long - short difference was 100 lots, with a deviation of 0.38% [8] - JM2605: The top 20 long positions were 250,835 lots, a decrease of 2,077 lots; the top 20 short positions were 345,552 lots, an increase of 11,642 lots, and the long - short difference was -13,719 lots, with a deviation of -4.60% [8] - I2605: The top 20 long positions were 411,151 lots, a decrease of 911 lots; the top 20 short positions were 433,889 lots, a decrease of 8,428 lots, and the long - short difference was 7,517 lots, with a deviation of 1.78% [8] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On January 15, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opened lower, fluctuated and declined, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and weakened again at the end of the session, closing at 813.0 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [7] - In the spot market on January 15, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0.7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 6 - 9 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract was moving downward, the K and J values turned back, and the D value continued to decline; the daily MACD indicator's red bar of the iron ore 2605 contract has been narrowing for 3 consecutive weeks [9] 3.2 Market Outlook - Supply side: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil have been declining for two consecutive weeks, with last week's shipments dropping by 1.333 million tons to 25.332 million tons. The arrival volume has been increasing in the past two weeks, with last week's arrival volume increasing by 1.64 million tons to 29.204 million tons. It is expected that the arrival volume may remain at a high level this week and then gradually decline [10] - Demand side: The total output of the five major steel products increased slightly again last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased for three consecutive weeks, returning to 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons. The resilience of iron ore demand is very strong. This is due to the resumption of production of some overhauled production lines after the New Year's Day holiday and the repair of steel profits. The profitability rate of steel mills has remained around 37% - 38% in recent weeks. The blast furnace profit of rebar has turned positive and continues to rise, and the production profits of rebar electric furnace and hot - rolled coil, although still negative, are close to the break - even point [11] - Inventory side: Currently, steel mills are restocking on - demand, and the available days of inventory decreased by 1 day to 19 days compared with last week. However, the restocking stage before the Spring Festival will start in mid - to - late January, and the restocking demand will boost the ore price to some extent. The port inventory has been accumulating since the fourth quarter of 2025, with the inventory at 45 ports reaching nearly 1.63 billion tons, a new high since April 2018. However, the port inventory is structurally differentiated, with more inventory in the hands of traders, and the proportion of steel mills' inventory continues to decline. There may be a supply gap for the medium - and low - grade iron ore favored by steel mills, resulting in strong prices [11] - Overall, the previous increase in ore prices was affected by the strong rise of the overall commodity market and the marginal strengthening of the iron ore's own fundamentals. Before the Spring Festival, the restocking demand will further support the ore price. It is expected that the ore price may rebound after a decline, but the high port inventory will also bring upward pressure, and the upward space is relatively limited. At least in the week before the Spring Festival, the ore price will remain resilient [12] 4. Industry News - On January 15, the central bank deputy governor Zou Lan said that the central bank will launch two policy measures. One is to lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to improve banks' enthusiasm for credit investment in key areas. The one - year interest rates of various re - loans will be lowered from the current 1.5% to 1.25% [13] - Starting from January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the re - loan and rediscount interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. After the reduction, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year agricultural and small - business re - loan interest rates will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively, the rediscount rate will be 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate will be 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool interest rate will be 1.25% [13] 5. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the May contract, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of steel mills' iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and shipping volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mills' inventory of five major steel products [15][21][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the gradual ebb of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable and rising shipments, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of futures contracts and the positive basis provide some support to the futures price. Overall, it shows a range - bound pattern mainly [4] Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated within the day, closing at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a decline rate of +0.13%. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 553,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were nearly 9.5 billion yuan. The disk price was in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 3 to 787, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 672. The main swap was at 104.2 (-0.7) US dollars/ton. Spot prices fell slightly, and swap prices also declined [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the disk was 819.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 18.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and there was also some support below the futures [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil weakened, especially in Brazil, while shipments from non - mainstream countries increased month - on - month. The current arrivals decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental protection and annual maintenance continued. Coupled with stricter environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and delays in blast furnace复产, molten iron continued to decline significantly and exceeded expectations. The profitability rate of steel mills remained flat month - on - month, and there was still an expectation of further weakening of molten iron. The release of restocking demand was still slow [2] - Inventory: Port unloading and warehousing accelerated, showing signs of further inventory accumulation. Inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The arrivals within the week increased, and the congestion situation improved. Steel mill inventories continued to decline. Against the background of the decline of molten iron, the daily consumption decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased. The spot price of iron ore was relatively firm, and steel mills actively reduced normal inventory and had a weak willingness to replenish further [2] Macroeconomic Factors - Overseas: The recent combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair replacement" in the US is conducive to the Fed's easing. The quality of economic data in January is expected to return to normal levels and provide more guidance for the market. The overseas macro - environment will continue to warm up in 2026. The "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy in the US is conducive to promoting economic prosperity. The ECB announced in December to keep interest rates unchanged and raised the GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as scheduled without radical tightening, raising the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and maintaining the forecast for 2026 [3] - Domestic: On December 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting deployed tasks for 2026, including urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks was still a highlight, with deployments for gas pipelines and drainage and flood prevention projects, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In addition, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The weakening of commodity retail was the main drag factor, while service consumption continued to improve. In terms of investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment continued to weaken, while exports performed well and remained an important support [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the macro - risk appetite for iron ore is boosted again, and it will be in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 780.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32%. The position of I2605 was 534,905 hands, with an increase of 16,750 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of 65% Carajás fines (Carajas) was 874.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; 61.5% PB fines was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 61% Jimbobara fines was 748.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 56.5% Super Special fines was 677.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of 66% Langna ore and 65% Laiwu ore remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.6 yuan/ton to 108.0 yuan/ton; the basis against Jimbobara fines decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton to 49.6 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 18.0 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 79.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Jimbobara fines remained unchanged at 47.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 118.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7,859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6,043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is under pressure with supply growth expected and weak demand becoming a reality, leading to a renewed weakness in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Performance**: On December 11, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opening with oscillations, then quickly falling, and slightly recovering in the afternoon, closing at 757.0 yuan/ton, down 1.30% [7] - **Spot Market**: On December 11, the main iron ore outer - market quotes rose 0.3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning back down and the D value continuing to decline; the daily MACD indicator's green bar has started to expand [9] - **Future Outlook**: Supply from Australia and Brazil is picking up and is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Demand is weak as the output of five major steel products has reached a new low this year, and the daily average hot - metal output has dropped to around 2.32 million tons. Steel mills are restocking as needed, with inventory available days at a relatively low level of around 20 days this year. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, reaching a new high since the end of February, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - BP interest rate cut in its December interest rate decision, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75%, and is predicted to cut rates by another 25 BP in 2026 [12] - According to the 2026 China Real Estate Market Trend Report, in a neutral scenario, the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new construction area is expected to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment is expected to decline by 11%. In the medium - to - long term, the average annual sales area of new commercial housing during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be maintained at 7 - 8 billion square meters, and the real estate market is expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment phase in the middle and late stages of the "14th Five - Year Plan" [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of ore, the shipping volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, port arrival volumes, domestic mine capacity utilization rates, and other relevant data related to the iron ore and steel industry [14][22][23]