Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the gradual ebb of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable and rising shipments, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of futures contracts and the positive basis provide some support to the futures price. Overall, it shows a range - bound pattern mainly [4] Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated within the day, closing at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a decline rate of +0.13%. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 553,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were nearly 9.5 billion yuan. The disk price was in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 3 to 787, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 672. The main swap was at 104.2 (-0.7) US dollars/ton. Spot prices fell slightly, and swap prices also declined [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the disk was 819.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 18.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and there was also some support below the futures [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil weakened, especially in Brazil, while shipments from non - mainstream countries increased month - on - month. The current arrivals decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental protection and annual maintenance continued. Coupled with stricter environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and delays in blast furnace复产, molten iron continued to decline significantly and exceeded expectations. The profitability rate of steel mills remained flat month - on - month, and there was still an expectation of further weakening of molten iron. The release of restocking demand was still slow [2] - Inventory: Port unloading and warehousing accelerated, showing signs of further inventory accumulation. Inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The arrivals within the week increased, and the congestion situation improved. Steel mill inventories continued to decline. Against the background of the decline of molten iron, the daily consumption decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased. The spot price of iron ore was relatively firm, and steel mills actively reduced normal inventory and had a weak willingness to replenish further [2] Macroeconomic Factors - Overseas: The recent combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair replacement" in the US is conducive to the Fed's easing. The quality of economic data in January is expected to return to normal levels and provide more guidance for the market. The overseas macro - environment will continue to warm up in 2026. The "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy in the US is conducive to promoting economic prosperity. The ECB announced in December to keep interest rates unchanged and raised the GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as scheduled without radical tightening, raising the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and maintaining the forecast for 2026 [3] - Domestic: On December 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting deployed tasks for 2026, including urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks was still a highlight, with deployments for gas pipelines and drainage and flood prevention projects, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In addition, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The weakening of commodity retail was the main drag factor, while service consumption continued to improve. In terms of investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment continued to weaken, while exports performed well and remained an important support [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the macro - risk appetite for iron ore is boosted again, and it will be in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 780.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32%. The position of I2605 was 534,905 hands, with an increase of 16,750 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of 65% Carajás fines (Carajas) was 874.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; 61.5% PB fines was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 61% Jimbobara fines was 748.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 56.5% Super Special fines was 677.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of 66% Langna ore and 65% Laiwu ore remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.6 yuan/ton to 108.0 yuan/ton; the basis against Jimbobara fines decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton to 49.6 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 18.0 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 79.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Jimbobara fines remained unchanged at 47.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 118.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7,859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6,043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is under pressure with supply growth expected and weak demand becoming a reality, leading to a renewed weakness in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Performance**: On December 11, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opening with oscillations, then quickly falling, and slightly recovering in the afternoon, closing at 757.0 yuan/ton, down 1.30% [7] - **Spot Market**: On December 11, the main iron ore outer - market quotes rose 0.3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning back down and the D value continuing to decline; the daily MACD indicator's green bar has started to expand [9] - **Future Outlook**: Supply from Australia and Brazil is picking up and is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Demand is weak as the output of five major steel products has reached a new low this year, and the daily average hot - metal output has dropped to around 2.32 million tons. Steel mills are restocking as needed, with inventory available days at a relatively low level of around 20 days this year. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, reaching a new high since the end of February, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - BP interest rate cut in its December interest rate decision, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75%, and is predicted to cut rates by another 25 BP in 2026 [12] - According to the 2026 China Real Estate Market Trend Report, in a neutral scenario, the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new construction area is expected to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment is expected to decline by 11%. In the medium - to - long term, the average annual sales area of new commercial housing during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be maintained at 7 - 8 billion square meters, and the real estate market is expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment phase in the middle and late stages of the "14th Five - Year Plan" [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of ore, the shipping volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, port arrival volumes, domestic mine capacity utilization rates, and other relevant data related to the iron ore and steel industry [14][22][23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The fundamentals of iron ore continue to exert downward pressure. The supply remains high, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore market is expected to continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3][5][6]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Situation - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot prices declined. The main contract dropped from 809.5 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 6.11%. The spot price also decreased, with the Platts price index falling 4.30% to $104.5/ton, and the mainstream spot price at Qingdao Port dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The high - level decline of ore prices is due to factors such as weakened market sentiment, reduced demand from steel mills, and a weakened supply - demand pattern. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is still weakening, mainly pressured by the supply side [3]. - Overseas ore supply is active. As of the week of October 19, the arrival volume at 47 domestic ports was 26.763 million tons, still at a high level this year. The arrival volume in the third quarter increased significantly compared with the same period last year, making up for the reduction in the first quarter [3]. - The increase in domestic port arrivals is due to the active shipments of miners. The latest global iron ore shipment volume is 33.335 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The shipment volume in October was 88.8319 million tons, with month - on - month and year - on - year increases of 2.06% and 10.34% respectively. The cumulative annual shipment volume increased by 14.34 million tons, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil [3]. - In October, the average value of the Platts iron ore price index (CFR, 62% FE) was $105/ton. High ore prices encourage overseas miners to ship actively. With a high inventory of floating cargoes at sea, the subsequent arrival volume at domestic ports will remain high. Domestic mine supply has also increased, which will further suppress the iron ore price [4]. Demand Situation - Iron ore demand has weakened. The poor performance of steel demand during the peak season has led to steel mills reducing production, and the consumption of iron ore has declined. As of the week of October 17, the daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.59 million tons and 1.79 million tons respectively [5]. - Although the decline in iron ore demand is not large, the steel market's supply - demand pattern remains weak. After the holiday, steel demand has recovered slightly, but most varieties have not returned to pre - holiday levels, and some varieties have the lowest demand in the same period in the past five years [5]. - The downstream industries of steel have not improved, and the "Silver October" peak season may be lackluster. The steel inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and the subsequent de - stocking pressure is large. The profitability of steel mills is deteriorating, with the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills at 55.41%, having decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, a cumulative decline of 12.99 percentage points. Most steel products in North China are in a loss - making state, and only those in East China maintain a small profit. Therefore, the subsequent production enthusiasm of steel mills will decline, and iron ore demand is expected to continue to weaken [5][6].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: The iron ore market is affected by multiple events and shows a moderately strong and fluctuating trend. The trend strength of iron ore is 1, indicating a moderately positive view [1] Group 3 Summary based on relevant catalogs - **Fundamental tracking**: - **Futures**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 780.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The position was 447,365 lots, a decrease of 26,627 lots [1] - **Spot prices**: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 918 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 779 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 748 yuan/ton, unchanged; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 708 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Langna (66%) was 952 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu (65%) was 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Spreads**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special fines was 141.5 yuan/ton, up 4.6 yuan/ton; against Jinbuba fines was 49.1 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton. The spread between 12509 and 12601 was -40 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; between 12601 and 12605 was 21 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines was 139 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; between PB fines and Jinbuba fines was 31 yuan/ton, unchanged; between PB fines and Super Special fines was 71 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - **Macro and industry news**: Affected by the US government shutdown, the data on the change in non - farm payrolls in the US in September and the US unemployment rate in September, originally scheduled to be announced at 20:30 Beijing time, have not been released [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - and medium - term, and show a slightly weak oscillation trend intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the M20 line. The supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will oscillate at a high level [2]. - The iron ore futures price is relatively strong due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply is rising. The ore fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the high - valued ore price is still under pressure. The positive factors are the peak - season expectation and the support of varietal arbitrage funds. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillation, and the intraday trend is slightly weak oscillation. The key is to focus on the M20 line support. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level ore price oscillation [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has improved, but the iron ore supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. Ore demand is falling as steel mill production weakens and steel product contradictions accumulate with shrinking profits. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is increasing. The ore fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure. Positive factors include peak - season expectations and varietal arbitrage funds, and the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with attention on steel prices [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed a strong performance, with iron ore futures opening at 790.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 801.5 CNY, reflecting a 2.17% increase [1] - The total global iron ore shipment decreased by 151,000 tons to 30.467 million tons, while the port arrival volume also fell by 1.259 million tons to 23.819 million tons [1] - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased by 0.39 thousand tons to 240.32 thousand tons, indicating resilient demand despite a minor decline [1] Group 2 - Iron ore shipments and arrivals are expected to rise, but the overall supply remains weak, with steel mills actively replenishing stocks due to favorable profit margins [2] - The impact of typhoons is subsiding, leading to a slight increase in port inventories, while the fundamental outlook for iron ore remains strong [2] - The black metal sector's price movements are primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with iron ore prices expected to stabilize at high levels due to sustained production from steel mills [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to see the price fluctuate at a high level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The core logic is that the fundamental expectation is weakening, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of the ore price. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA20 line [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. However, steel mills' profitability is still good, and ore demand remains at a relatively high level, providing some support for the ore price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, while the shipments of overseas miners have decreased, but the reduction is not significant under high ore prices. Domestic ore production has contracted again. It is expected that the overall ore supply will increase steadily. - Currently, the resilience of ore demand is acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price. But as the supply is increasing, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory consolidation state. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Although the steel mill production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore has decreased but remains at a high level within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills provides strong support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased month - on - month, but after the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of miners continue to decrease, the overseas ore supply contracts, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable. The supply side is relatively favorable. The ore demand has certain resilience, and with the optimistic sentiment remaining, the ore price is supported to continue the upward - oscillating trend in the short term. However, the fundamentals of the ore have not improved substantially under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upside potential should be cautiously optimistic, being alert to the switch of trading logic to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner. There are specific explanations for calculating the rise and fall amplitude and definitions of different trends [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, but ore consumption remains high within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills supports the ore price. Port arrivals increase, but miner shipments decrease, overseas supply contracts, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The demand has resilience, and the short - term ore price is supported to run with a slight upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and caution is needed for the upside potential [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, the US Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the "big and beautiful" bill with a vote ratio of 51 to 49. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the inventory at domestic ports increased slightly. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased, and the demand for iron ore remained supported. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are mixed, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA pulled back from high levels. Operationally, conduct short - term trading in the range of 723 - 710, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 715.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume was 668,751 lots, down 11,149 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 57,432 lots, down 7,849 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 2,800 lots, down 200 lots. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 94.05 US dollars/ton, down 0.23 US dollars [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 754 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 665 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 39 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 94.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.10 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.60, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 779 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 3,357.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 tons. The inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 36.07 tons. The inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88.77 tons. The monthly iron ore import volume was 9,813 tons, a decrease of 501 tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 41.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines was 65.69%, a week - on - week increase of 2.14%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 53.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49 tons. The BDI index was 1,521, down 32. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 21.16 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 6.79 US dollars/ton, down 0.64 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.55%, down 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.87%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.75%, down 1.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.38%, down 0.10% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,882.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,363.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199.7 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,217.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.7 tons [2]