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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250826
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:27
2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:板块情绪带动,宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:板块情绪带动,宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 787.0 | 17.0 | 2. 21% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 464. 830 | 12. 205 | | | | | 昨日 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:41
2025年08月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:市场情绪冷淡,偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:市场情绪冷淡,偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 铁矿石趋势强度:1 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 21 日 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | 来源:Mysteel,东财 Choice,国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 财联社 8 月 16 日电,据央视新闻,当地时间 8 月 15 日,美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250818
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]
铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:02
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Iron Ore: Macro Risk Appetite Has Not Significantly Corrected, Support Remains" and was released on August 18, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The macro risk appetite for iron ore has not significantly corrected, and there is still support [2] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures - The closing price of I 2601 was 776.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%. The position was 447,326 lots, down 4,631 lots [3] Spot Prices - Imported ores: The price of Carajás fines (65%) was 884.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 772.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 745.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 645.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. Domestic ores: The price of Handan ore (66%) was 912.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu ore (65%) was 830.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - The basis of I 2601 against Super Special fines was 76.8 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton; the basis of I 2601 against Jinbuba fines was 50.3 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between I 2509 - I 2601 was 16.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between I 2601 - I 2605 was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines - PB fines was 112.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between PB fines - Jinbuba fines was 27.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between PB fines - Super Special fines was 127.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list [3] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3]