铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：定价脱离供需，宏观支撑偏强 | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 | 当周值 | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | 全球发货量 | 3213 . | 7 | -463 | 4 . | 101 | 6 . | | | 澳发货量 | 1874 . | 0 | -165 | 7 . | -72 | 2 . | | | 巴发货量 | 792 . | 5 | -151 | 5 . | 114 | 7 . | | 供 应 | 力拓-中国发货量 | 549 . | 9 | -146 | 4 . | 76 . | 1 | | | BHP-中国发货量 | 496 . | 4 | -17 . | 0 | -12 | 1 . | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the macro - risk appetite for iron ore is boosted again, and it will be in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 780.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32%. The position of I2605 was 534,905 hands, with an increase of 16,750 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of 65% Carajás fines (Carajas) was 874.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; 61.5% PB fines was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 61% Jimbobara fines was 748.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 56.5% Super Special fines was 677.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of 66% Langna ore and 65% Laiwu ore remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.6 yuan/ton to 108.0 yuan/ton; the basis against Jimbobara fines decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton to 49.6 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 18.0 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 79.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Jimbobara fines remained unchanged at 47.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 118.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7,859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6,043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand and macro factors lead to the downward revision of coal - coke valuation. Domestic coal production has a slight month - on - month increase but may be affected by safety inspections, and Mongolian coal supply remains high. Downstream coking coal replenishment is limited due to bearish sentiment, and steel mills' production is unstable. Recently, the macro risk appetite at home and abroad has significantly declined, and the valuation of risk assets has dropped. The notice on the signing of long - term coal contracts in 2026 strengthens the market's expectation of coal supply recovery, and without significant positive drivers in demand and the macro - level, coal - coke valuation continues to fall [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal - Coke Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Domestic coal production has a slight month - on - month increase, but some areas may have temporary shutdowns due to safety inspections. Mongolian coal supply remains high, especially the significant year - on - year increase in the number of trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port recently [3] - **Demand**: Affected by bearish sentiment, downstream coking coal replenishment is limited, but steel mills' production is unstable, and hot metal production remains high [3] - **Macro**: Recently, the macro risk appetite at home and abroad has significantly declined, the valuation of risk assets related to technology and other themes has dropped significantly, and the domestic valuation has also been significantly revised down [3] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The notice on the signing of long - term coal contracts in 2026 strengthens the market's expectation of coal supply recovery, and without significant positive drivers in demand and the macro - level, coal - coke valuation continues to fall [3] Coal - Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Coal**: FW raw coal is 851.45 (-2.36), FW clean coal is 433.84 (-1.82), hot metal production is 236.28 (-0.6), MS total inventory is - 10.1 (mine raw coal - 0.1, mine clean coal + 20.9, independent coking - 30.8, steel mill coking + 6.9, port - 7.0, FW port + 12.7), and the profit of commercial coal is 587 (-6). The Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1223 [5] - **Coke**: The daily average of independent coking plants is 62.67 (-0.33), the daily average of steel mill coking plants is 46.22 (+0.05), hot metal production is 236.28 (-0.6), MS total inventory is + 1.3 (independent coking - 5.8, steel mill - 0.1, port + 7.1), and the average profit of coking enterprises is 19 (+53). The Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1621 [5] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply - Weekly**: It shows the production data of raw coal, clean coal, and the production of 523 sample mines, as well as the production data of coking coal in different years [9][11][13] - **Supply - Monthly**: It shows the monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 [15] - **Supply - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: It shows the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs clearance volume of the three ports from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][21][23] - **Inventory - Pithead**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 13.62 tons week - on - week to 155.81 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 10.41 tons week - on - week to 97.99 tons [28] - **Inventory - Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory is 291.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7 tons [30] - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different regions and different production capacities [33][35][37] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and steel mill coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different regions [39] 02 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants, including the overall situation, the situation of plants with different production capacities, and the situation in different regions [42] - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 [44] - **Supply - Output - Coking Plant**: It shows the daily output of coke in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years [46] - **Supply - Output - Steel Mill**: It shows the daily output of coke in 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 [48] - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: It shows the inventory of coke in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years [50] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: It shows the inventory and average available days of coke in steel mill coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years and different regions [51][53][54] - **Inventory - Full - Sample Summary**: It shows the total coke inventory from 2019 to 2025 [56] - **Demand - Pig Iron**: It shows the daily output of hot metal in 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 and the supply - demand difference of coke [58][59] - **Profit**: It shows the profit of coke, including the profit of the main - contract on the coke futures and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [62][63] 03 Coal - Coke Spot and Futures Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: It shows the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605 from November 14 to November 21, 2025 [67] - **Coke Futures**: It shows the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2601 and coke 2605 from November 14 to November 21, 2025 [69] - **Coal - Coke Month - Spread**: It shows the month - spreads of coking coal and coke from August 7 to November 7, 2025 [72] - **Coal - Coke Spot**: It shows the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke [75] - **Coal - Coke Basis**: The basis fluctuates within a narrow range, and the futures prices have been relatively firm recently, so the basis has not broken through the previous high [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Driven by sector sentiment, prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][16]. - Logs: Prices are fluctuating repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton or 2.21%. The I2601 contract had a position of 464,830 lots, an increase of 12,205 lots. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 13 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices in some areas decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [6]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [6]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71%, with a trading volume of 1,200,313 lots and a position of 1,347,830 lots, a decrease of 63,773 lots. The HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,389 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.92%. Spot prices in various regions generally increased. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 21, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. In mid - August 2025, the output and inventory of key steel enterprises changed. The manufacturing supply index in July decreased. The national general public budget revenue from January to July increased slightly [11][12]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0 [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying increases. Spot prices of related products were provided. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 25, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in ports changed [14]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,215.5 yuan/ton, up 53.5 yuan/ton or 4.6%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,736 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton or 3.4%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some areas remained unchanged, while others changed. The basis and spreads also changed [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [16]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [17]. Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [19]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [21]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of logs is 1 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: With the macro risk preference not significantly corrected, there is still support [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Log: Repeated oscillation [2][16] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series futures products on August 21, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and log, providing corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: No detailed data presented in the text [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data** - Rebar (RB2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,132 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.38%); trading volume was 1,317,374 lots, and open interest was 1,523,392 lots, a decrease of 85,302 lots [7] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,402 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.61%); trading volume was 619,254 lots, and open interest was 1,123,892 lots, a decrease of 61,086 lots [7] - **Macro and Industry News** - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% [8] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [8] - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [8] - In early August 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [9] - On August 14, steel output: rebar - 0.73 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.7 million tons; total inventory: rebar + 30.51 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.84 million tons; apparent demand: rebar - 20.85 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 8.54 million tons [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data** - Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price was 5,622 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; trading volume was 267,911 lots, and open interest was 228,094 lots [10] - Silicomanganese 2511: Closing price was 5,818 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; trading volume was 56,642 lots, and open interest was 117,713 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 20, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton (- 50), and the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton (- 50) [11] - A steel mill in Fujian set the price of silicomanganese at 6,017 yuan/ton on the 19th, a 217 - yuan increase from July, with a procurement volume of 11,600 tons [11] - In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2.7435 million tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [12] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a relatively weak downward trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data** - Coking coal (JM2601): Closing price was 1,162.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (- 2.7%); trading volume was 1,974,478 lots, and open interest was 698,714 lots, a decrease of 15,151 lots [13] - Coke (J2601): Closing price was 1,678 yuan/ton, down 30.5 yuan/ton (- 1.8%); trading volume was 30,721 lots, and open interest was 39,060 lots, an increase of 644 lots [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Log - **Fundamental Data**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of log futures contracts (such as 2509, 2511, 2601), as well as the price information of log spot markets in Shandong and Jiangsu [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Iron Ore: Macro Risk Appetite Has Not Significantly Corrected, Support Remains" and was released on August 18, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The macro risk appetite for iron ore has not significantly corrected, and there is still support [2] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures - The closing price of I 2601 was 776.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%. The position was 447,326 lots, down 4,631 lots [3] Spot Prices - Imported ores: The price of Carajás fines (65%) was 884.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 772.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 745.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 645.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. Domestic ores: The price of Handan ore (66%) was 912.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu ore (65%) was 830.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - The basis of I 2601 against Super Special fines was 76.8 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton; the basis of I 2601 against Jinbuba fines was 50.3 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between I 2509 - I 2601 was 16.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between I 2601 - I 2605 was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines - PB fines was 112.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between PB fines - Jinbuba fines was 27.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between PB fines - Super Special fines was 127.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list [3] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3]