为了提供更全面的预测，Omdia指出了一些可能抑制2026年经济增长的宏观经济风险因素。尽管 中国和欧元区的通胀基本得到控制，但美国的通胀问题依然令人担忧。预计今年的其他挑战包括劳 计算与数据存储领域将引领半导体营收增长，预计到2026年将同比增长41.4%，超过5000亿美 元。这主要得益于数据中心服务器和其他内存密集型应用的高需求，以及内存芯片价格的上涨。笔 记本电脑的增长则得益于人工智能技术的普及和企业的大规模更新换代。预计今年全球四大超大规 模数据中心运营商的资本支出总额将达到约5000亿美元，并且预计未来还将继续增长。资本支出 正重新分配至人工智能基础设施、模型开发和新兴应用领域，凸显了人工智能对各行业的变革性影 响。 2026年，消费电子和无线应用领域也将为半导体营收增长带来强劲前景。推动增长的因素包括存 储器价格上涨、新一代折叠屏智能手机的发布以及互联消费设备的复苏。苹果、三星和其他厂商在 人工智能摄影方面的升级以及旗舰智能手机的更新换代也将进一步促进增长。可穿戴设备、智能音 箱和虚拟现实（VR）头显预计也将实现显著的营收增长。 Omdia高级首席分析师Myson Robles-Bruce表示： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has criticized Nexperia (Netherlands) for halting wafer supply to Nexperia (China), causing disruptions in the global semiconductor supply chain, and has called for responsible actions from the Dutch side to stabilize the situation [1][6]. Group 1: Supply Chain Impact - Nexperia (Netherlands) announced on October 26 that it would stop supplying wafers to Nexperia (China), leading to production disruptions [1]. - The Chinese government has stated that it will exempt eligible exports to facilitate the recovery of Nexperia (China) and stabilize the global semiconductor supply chain [1][6]. - Despite potential disruptions from European wafer supply, Nexperia (China) is expected to continue delivering products to domestic semiconductor clients [2]. Group 2: Alternative Suppliers - Several Chinese wafer manufacturers, including Wuxi Xin Jie Neng and Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics, are capable of supplying wafers to Nexperia (China) [2]. - Shanghai Ding Tai Jiang Xin Technology, part of Wingtech Technology, is also likely to provide wafers to Nexperia (China), with a significant investment of 12 billion yuan in a 12-inch wafer production facility [4]. Group 3: Production and Certification Challenges - Nexperia (China) may require 6 to 12 months to certify new wafer suppliers due to strict safety requirements, complicating the production scheduling process [4]. - Most Chinese wafer manufacturers primarily produce medium and low-voltage products, while foreign companies like Infineon and STMicroelectronics can produce high-voltage products, potentially limiting Nexperia (China)'s options [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following positive news regarding the potential resumption of chip shipments from Nexperia (China), stock prices of European automakers such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo rose by at least 3% [6]. - Nexperia (Netherlands) welcomed recent statements from China and the U.S. that removed obstacles to chip shipments but refrained from commenting on Nexperia (China)'s plans to accelerate its independence [6]. Group 5: Company Statements and Legal Issues - Nexperia (China) has assured customers of sufficient inventory to meet demand until the end of the year and is actively validating new wafer production capacities [7]. - Nexperia (China) refuted claims of contract violations, stating that Nexperia (Netherlands) owes 1 billion yuan to its packaging and testing factory in Dongguan [7].