人民币升值下，离岛免税经营近况及展望 20260106 摘要 海南离岛免税销售额在经历低迷后显著回升，增速从个位数增长至接近 30%，反映经济状况的改善，主要得益于消费券刺激和游客结构变化。 元旦假期海南省市及企业发放消费券约 5,000 万元，拉动消费效果显著， 预计 2026 年消费券投放力度将保持现有水平，利好免税企业。 黄金品类占比从 7%-8%提升至 16%，增速超 200%，3C 类产品占比 11%-12%，增速 30%-40%，两者合计占整体销售额三分之一以上， 成为增长引擎。 人民币升值对进口为主的免税行业构成利好，近期升值约两个百分点， 将直接增加免税店利润，一季度财务报表有望得到正面反馈。 各离岛免税企业在折扣和促销方面保持谨慎稳定，未出现过低折扣，预 计未来也不会剧烈变动，政府通过消费券避免企业牺牲利润促销。 传统香化类产品销售止跌企稳，呈现个位数增长，高单价 3C 类、黄金 类产品销售爆发性增长，反映高净值客户群体消费信心复苏，酒水类产 品仍处于低谷。 新政放开后，离境游客平均客单价达近 7,000 元，高于此前预估，岛民 免税购买人数占比接近 0.5%，客单价水平约为 3,000 元 ...

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Hainan duty-free industry, particularly following the new policies implemented in November 2025, which have significantly impacted sales performance and market dynamics [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Growth**: In the first week after the new policy implementation, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales increased by over 30% year-on-year, with the new policy contributing approximately 1.5 percentage points to this growth. The primary drivers of this increase were market recovery and strong sales of electronic products, such as Apple smartphones [1][5]. - **Market Structure**: The product category structure in Hainan's duty-free market remains relatively stable. The share of cosmetics has decreased to 40%-45%, while electronic products account for about 15%, potentially rising to 22%-25% during new product launches. Alcoholic beverages represent nearly 10%, and luxury goods account for approximately 20%-25% [1][9]. - **Market Share and Performance**: China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is expected to recover its market share to around 88% in 2025, outperforming other competitors in terms of revenue and profit growth due to internal adjustments and cost control measures [1][6][18]. - **Consumer Segments**: The new policy allowing local residents to purchase duty-free goods is projected to contribute 3%-4% to overall sales. However, the potential of foreign tourists, especially from non-traditional Eastern European markets, is seen as a more significant opportunity [1][13]. - **Future Sales Projections**: Sales in Hainan's duty-free market are expected to steadily exceed 2024 levels, with conservative growth estimates of 7%-8% for 2026. If supported by favorable policies, double-digit growth is also possible [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Advantages**: CDFG has a significant advantage in supply chain management compared to other local state-owned enterprises, which face challenges in brand introduction and product diversity. This positions CDFG favorably in the competitive landscape [4][16]. - **Impact of Tax Policies**: The new tax policies will be implemented gradually, ensuring at least a 20% tax rate difference to protect the duty-free advantage. Basic consumer goods will see a reduced tax rate of 3%-5%, with minimal immediate impact on existing product categories [10][21]. - **Operational Challenges for Competitors**: Other operators, such as Hainan Tourism Investment Development Co., are struggling to maintain competitiveness due to operational inefficiencies and supply chain issues. Their market positions are weakening, while CDFG continues to enhance its operational capabilities [17][19]. - **Cost Control**: CDFG's gross margin for cosmetics is approximately 35%, significantly higher than the 15%-18% margins of other operators. This indicates a strong position in cost control and pricing strategy [20]. - **Regulatory Oversight**: The new policy for local residents includes strict regulatory measures to manage risks, with a focus on data analysis and verification processes to ensure compliance [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Hainan duty-free industry, highlighting the competitive landscape, consumer behavior, and regulatory environment.