人民币升值下，离岛免税经营近况及展望 20260106 摘要 海南离岛免税销售额在经历低迷后显著回升，增速从个位数增长至接近 30%，反映经济状况的改善，主要得益于消费券刺激和游客结构变化。 元旦假期海南省市及企业发放消费券约 5,000 万元，拉动消费效果显著， 预计 2026 年消费券投放力度将保持现有水平，利好免税企业。 黄金品类占比从 7%-8%提升至 16%，增速超 200%，3C 类产品占比 11%-12%，增速 30%-40%，两者合计占整体销售额三分之一以上， 成为增长引擎。 人民币升值对进口为主的免税行业构成利好，近期升值约两个百分点， 将直接增加免税店利润，一季度财务报表有望得到正面反馈。 各离岛免税企业在折扣和促销方面保持谨慎稳定，未出现过低折扣，预 计未来也不会剧烈变动，政府通过消费券避免企业牺牲利润促销。 传统香化类产品销售止跌企稳，呈现个位数增长，高单价 3C 类、黄金 类产品销售爆发性增长，反映高净值客户群体消费信心复苏，酒水类产 品仍处于低谷。 新政放开后，离境游客平均客单价达近 7,000 元，高于此前预估，岛民 免税购买人数占比接近 0.5%，客单价水平约为 3,000 元 ...

旅游零售Ⅱ | 证券研究报告 — 行业深度 2025 年 12 月 26 日 强于大市 免税行业报告 政策加码，景气回升，重视投资机遇 当前国家层面对内需重视程度愈发提升，预计未来消费行业将迎来更多政策 端的支持。免税行业步入外部环境优化、利好政策加码、行业景气度改善的 新纪元，建议重视板块投资机遇，维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 商贸零售：旅游零售Ⅱ 证券分析师：李小民 (8621)20328901 xiaomin.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522090001 证券分析师：宋环翔 huanxiang.song@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300524080001 高端消费现回暖信号，中日关系趋紧促进海外消费回流。在亚太及中国市 场，爱马仕、LVMH、PRADA、开云集团等奢侈品集团的 Q3 业绩增速环比 均有提升或改善；以太古地产为代表的高端地产也实现显著回暖，内地所有 高端商场 25Q1-3 销售额全部实现正增长,高端消费回暖信号初显。中国游客 对日本的旅游消费贡献颇高 ...

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The duty-free industry in Hainan is experiencing significant benefits from the duty-free policy, particularly for island residents who can purchase 15 categories of goods without limits within a year, stimulating demand from both residents and buyers [2][4][15] - In November, the overall sales growth in Hainan's duty-free market reached approximately 25% year-on-year, with island residents contributing about 15% to the sales [2][15] Key Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: In November, Hainan's duty-free sales are expected to reach 2.6 billion yuan, showing over 30% growth compared to the previous year [4] - **Product Categories**: - Gold jewelry saw the highest growth rate of over 20% in November, while 3C electronic products grew by about 15% [5] - The sales distribution for January to October 2025 was as follows: cosmetics 12.377 billion yuan, luxury goods 5.6324 billion yuan, 3C electronics 903 million yuan, and liquor 1.915 billion yuan [9] - **Gross Margin**: The overall gross margin for the duty-free products is maintained at around 35%, with variations across different categories [9][8] - **Supply Chain Management**: Monthly ordering is based on a 90-day sales cycle, with safety stock for new products set at 120 days. The purchasing scale for peak seasons is expected to increase by 20%-30% year-on-year [17][19] Regulatory Environment - Customs regulations on purchasing have tightened, including the implementation of traceability systems and increased monitoring at ports, which could impact the market as approximately 70% of sales come from buyers [13][14] - The future of the gold category's operational model, which involves exporting and then importing, presents growth opportunities but is subject to potential regulatory tightening [11] Consumer Behavior - After the relaxation of policies for island residents, their shopping amounts and frequency increased by about 5%, but their overall contribution remains smaller compared to the total market growth [15] - The proportion of large purchase groups (buyers) in the market is between 50% to 70%, influenced by customs regulations and product structure changes [16] Future Outlook - The duty-free industry is expected to see continued growth driven by returning Japanese customers, although this effect may not be sustainable long-term [23] - Emerging categories like gold and domestic electronic products are anticipated to become significant growth points [23] - Potential policy changes, such as increasing the current spending limit from 100,000 yuan to 120,000 yuan, could further stimulate the market [24] Additional Insights - The cost of goods in Hainan is approximately 10% lower than in the domestic market, with specific categories like cosmetics and luxury goods having significant price advantages [3][21] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost island residents' consumption as they aim to utilize their annual quotas before they reset [29] - The new Haikou Duty-Free City project aims to enhance shopping convenience and attract more customers, despite currently operating at a loss [30][31] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Hainan duty-free industry, highlighting sales performance, regulatory impacts, consumer behavior, and future growth prospects.

Group 1 - The new duty-free policy in Hainan has significantly boosted consumer activity in Sanya, even during the traditionally low tourist season of November [1][2] - The policy allows for an expanded range of duty-free products, including certain domestic items, with an annual shopping limit of 100,000 yuan per person and no restrictions on purchase frequency [1][4] - Sales data indicates that in the first week following the policy's implementation, duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a year-on-year sales growth of over 30%, with the new policy contributing approximately 1.5 percentage points to this growth [2][3] Group 2 - The iPhone 17 series has become a hot-selling item in the duty-free stores, often referred to as a "Sanya specialty," with prices being 200-800 yuan lower than those in mainland Apple stores due to various subsidies [2][3] - The duty-free shopping policy is seen as a trial for local residents, allowing them to enjoy benefits from the upcoming closure of the island while testing the risk management capabilities of the new regulations [4][6] - The concept of "closure" in this context refers to Hainan becoming a special regulatory zone, facilitating a high level of openness and potentially transforming it into the largest free trade port in China [5][6]