Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao [11] Core Insights - China Jinmao is a state-owned enterprise focused on high-quality residential development, benefiting from strong support from its major shareholder, Sinochem Group, and internal management reforms [3][7] - The company has entered a new development phase, with significant improvements in sales performance, achieving a total sales amount of 807 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27%, marking its first entry into the top ten sales rankings [7][28] - The company aims to resolve 80% of its historical issues within three years, with a new product line "Jin Yu Man Tang" receiving positive market feedback [3][10] Overview - China Jinmao is a central enterprise urban operator under Sinochem Group, focusing on high-quality real estate development. The company has historically acquired land at low costs through differentiated models, creating a competitive edge with its "technology residential" products [7][16] - In 2024, Sinochem Group provided perpetual bonds and shareholder loans to support the company, helping it navigate through difficulties [7][21] - The company has seen a significant improvement in its operational performance, with a comprehensive gross profit margin of 16.2% in H1 2025, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 [7][30] Resource Management - The company has significantly improved its land acquisition strategy, with a land acquisition intensity of 65% in Q1-Q3 2025, ranking among the top enterprises in the industry [8][46] - The focus on major cities has increased, with over 80% of new land acquisitions being small-scale projects, reflecting a more cautious risk appetite [8][46] - As of mid-2025, the company has an unsold inventory value of approximately 320 billion yuan, with about 30% located in first-tier cities [8][46] Efficiency and Operations - The launch of the new product line "Jin Yu Man Tang" has received favorable market reception, with multiple projects achieving strong sales performance [9][27] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, with a significant decrease in financing costs to 3.0% in H1 2025, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of managing existing burdens while creating value through new land acquisitions. The company is expected to gradually improve its profitability, with projected net profits of 7.3 billion, 10.9 billion, and 16.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of 1.18 to 1.24 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% to 26% from the current price of 1.06 HKD [5][3]. Core Insights - The company has successfully turned around its performance, achieving profitability in 2024 due to reduced inventory impairment provisions, improved gross margins in development, decreased operating expenses, and increased contributions from joint ventures [1][19]. - The company maintains a diversified business structure, focusing on urban and property development, commercial leasing, hotel operations, and property services, with urban and property development accounting for over 89% of its revenue [15][19]. - The company has a strong sales performance, ranking 12th in the industry with sales of 98.3 billion RMB in 2024, and has a robust land bank with 87% of unsold value located in first- and second-tier cities [2][62]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a platform enterprise in urban operations under China National Chemical Corporation, with a stable shareholding structure and diversified business segments [11][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 59.1 billion RMB, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, marking a return to profitability [17][19]. - The company has cumulatively recognized 17.4 billion RMB in impairments since 2020, with a significant reduction in impairment provisions in 2024 [21][19]. Business Segments - **Urban and Property Development**: The company launched the "Jin Yu Man Tang" product line, contributing 492 billion RMB in revenue, despite a 22% decline [31][19]. - **Commercial Leasing and Retail Operations**: The commercial leasing segment generated 1.6 billion RMB in revenue, with a high occupancy rate and stable rental income [46][47]. - **Hotel Operations**: The hotel segment faced challenges, generating 1.7 billion RMB in revenue, down 18% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36% [54][56]. - **Property Services**: The property services segment, which was spun off in 2022, contributed 3 billion RMB in revenue, reflecting a 10% increase [58][60]. Sales and Land Bank - The company achieved sales of 98.3 billion RMB in 2024, with a sales area of 5.82 million square meters and an average selling price of 16,887 RMB per square meter [62][68]. - The company has a substantial land bank, with unsold value of approximately 280 billion RMB, primarily located in economically developed regions [83][87]. Debt Management - The company has optimized its debt structure, with a total debt of 122.8 billion RMB and a manageable proportion of short-term debt [89][95]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position, with all three red lines in green, ensuring access to diverse financing channels [89][95].