盈利预测与估值 考虑到老铺黄金持续破圈，终端销售高景气延续，且公司布局海外市场，进一步打开成长空间；同时， 随着公司品牌力及议价能力的提升，商场租金扣点有望进一步改善，且收入规模快速增长有望带动费用 率下行，我们上调25-27 年归母净利润40%/42%/43%至49.1/62.1/75.8 亿元。传统大众珠宝/奢侈品可比公 司25 年iFind/彭博一致预期17x/33xPE。考虑到老铺黄金高成长势头强劲，且品牌定位高端、稀缺性突 出，给予25 年38.5xPE，对应目标价1200 港币（前值840 港币基于25 年37 倍PE）。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、黄金价格震荡、消费信心恢复不达预期、门店拓展计划不及预期。 新店扩张与老店升级持续推进，进驻高端商圈，夯实高端品牌调性截至2024 年底，老铺黄金已在全国 15 个核心城市布局36 家自营门店，进驻包括SKP、万象城在内的26 家主力高端商场。2025 年以来，公 司陆续开设北京东方天地禅房主题店（1 月）、深圳罗湖万象城B1 精品店（3 月）、北京SKP-S 店（4 月）、上海港汇恒隆店（5 月）、新加坡店（6 月）、上海IFC 店（6 月），门店选址 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1,200.00 [1][7]. Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth momentum driven by rapid store expansion both domestically and internationally, particularly in high-end markets [1][2]. - The premium gold jewelry market is expanding, with the company leading the trend through product innovation and high craftsmanship [2]. - The company has successfully opened new stores in key locations, enhancing its brand positioning and targeting high-net-worth customers [3]. - Strong same-store sales growth is observed, with a significant increase in online sales contributing to overall revenue growth [4]. - Profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards due to sustained high demand and successful overseas market entry, with net profit projections for 2025-2027 increased by 40%-43% [5][12]. Summary by Sections Store Expansion and Upgrades - As of the end of 2024, the company has established 36 self-operated stores in 15 major cities, focusing on high-end shopping centers [3]. - Recent openings include stores in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Singapore, with plans for further expansions [3]. Sales Performance - The company reported a same-store revenue growth of over 120.9% in 2024, with a remarkable 170% growth in the first five months of 2025 [4]. - Online sales through platforms like Tmall and JD.com reached HKD 12.8 billion in early 2025, marking a 333% year-on-year increase [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been significantly raised, with expected revenues of RMB 23.6 billion, RMB 29.2 billion, and RMB 35.4 billion respectively [10][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 4.9 billion, reflecting a 233.6% increase from the previous year [12][17]. Market Positioning - The company is recognized as the leading brand in traditional handcrafted gold jewelry, continuously innovating with products that blend heritage craftsmanship with modern aesthetics [2]. - The brand's positioning in high-end markets is reinforced by its strategic store locations and product offerings [3].

Core Insights - Gold prices have risen significantly over the past two years, impacting the gold jewelry industry negatively despite the increase in gold prices for jewelry [1][6] - Lao Pu Gold, a local brand focusing on traditional craftsmanship and high-end positioning, has emerged successfully in 2023, attracting consumers with its high average transaction value and profit margins [1][10] Industry Overview - The gold jewelry industry is facing challenges due to rising gold prices, which have led to a decline in consumer demand for decorative gold items, with a reported drop of over 20% in sales [8][14] - Investment products like gold bars have seen a significant increase in demand, with sales rising by over 20%, contrasting with the decline in gold jewelry sales [8][14] Company Performance - Lao Pu Gold has positioned itself uniquely in the market with a focus on ancient craftsmanship and a high average spending of 25,000 yuan per customer, leading to a gross margin exceeding 40% [12][15] - The brand's average store sales exceeded 300 million yuan in 2024, significantly outperforming luxury brands like Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels by over 50% [16] Pricing Strategy - Lao Pu Gold employs a "one-price" strategy, which shifts consumer focus from gold prices to the craftsmanship and cultural value of the products, effectively decoupling from fluctuating gold prices [12][15] - This pricing model has allowed Lao Pu Gold to maintain high profit margins, even as traditional competitors struggle with rising costs [15][26] Consumer Behavior - The rise in gold prices has altered consumer psychology, leading to a shift from viewing gold as a decorative item to an investment asset, which has negatively impacted the jewelry sector [8][14] - Lao Pu Gold has successfully tapped into the cultural consumption trend, appealing to consumers' emotional and cultural values rather than just the investment aspect of gold [22][30] Market Positioning - Lao Pu Gold has established itself as a leader in the niche market of cultural gold jewelry, differentiating itself from both domestic competitors and international luxury brands [17][24] - The brand's focus on traditional craftsmanship and cultural narratives has resonated well with Chinese consumers, who prefer high-purity gold over alternatives like K-gold [18][20] Future Outlook - The brand's growth trajectory may face challenges in maintaining its pricing strategy during periods of fluctuating gold prices and balancing expansion with brand value [26][24] - Lao Pu Gold's commitment to traditional craftsmanship and cultural heritage will be crucial for its long-term sustainability and market differentiation [22][30]

本报记者 刘旺 北京报道 过去一年，奢侈品行业正在经历寒冬时，国货消费品牌出现了新的"排队王"，港股"黄金届爱马仕"老铺 黄金（06181.HK）凭借独特的品牌定位与业绩爆发力，成为资本市场与消费市场的双重焦点。 从业绩上看，2024年，老铺黄金实现85.06亿元的营业收入，同比增长167.5%；实现净利润14.73亿元， 同比增长253.9%。股价自上市以来飙升超20倍。 但实际上，老铺黄金仍然是一家年轻的公司，其创立于2009年，以"古法黄金"为核心卖点，对标爱马 仕、卡地亚等国际奢侈品牌。产品采用"一口价"定价模式，毛利率常年稳定在40%以上。然而《中国经 营报》记者注意到，高光之下，老铺黄金的代工争议、竞争加剧等问题，也浮出水面。记者就公司发展 相关问题向老铺黄金发送采访函，截至发稿未获回复。 快速扩店年入85亿元 4月28日，老铺黄金发布了2024年度报告。报告期内，老铺黄金实现营业收入85.06亿元，同比增长 167.5%；毛利35.01亿元，同比增长162.9%；实现净利润14.73亿元，同比增长253.9%。 据了解，老铺黄金在15个城市共开设了36家自营门店，全部位于包括SKP系（5家）和万 ...

以下文章来源于华商韬略 ，作者华商韬略 华商韬略 . 聚焦标杆与热点、解构趋势与韬略 比爱马仕还赚钱。 文 ｜ 张静波 编辑 ｜ 毕亚军 周怡 来源｜ 华商韬略（ID：hstl8888） 封面来源 ｜ Pexels 黄金，正让全球陷入疯狂。 伦敦交易所，每一次价格的跳动，都牵动全球投资者的心，湖南湘江边的一位老人，则在涨声一片中数钱数到手软。 财富神话 2025年4月1日，港股老铺黄金收盘价定格在868港元，市值逼近1500亿港元。 这距离它2024年6月以40.50港元/股发行价上市，还不到10个月。 老铺黄金上市之初，以公司发行价计算，持股67%的徐高明家族，身价才不到50亿元，而若以4月17日收盘价777港元计算，这一数字已高达 870多亿港元。 湖南籍富豪，多以实业起家，比如三一集团梁稳根、蓝思科技周群飞。 徐高明的崛起，却更多了一抹资本的色彩。 创造这一资本神话的，是一场史无前例的黄金大牛市。 过去几年，国际金价在全球地缘政治格局的动荡中暴涨，从每盎司1200美元飙升至最高3500美元。 主打黄金饰品的老铺黄金，因此站上时代的财富风口。 不到10个月，股价暴涨20倍 ，这是一个疯狂的纪录。 即便是曾 ...