证 券 研 究 报 告 周期行业产业月报（2025 年 10 月） 稀土永磁体：烧/粘结钕铁硼及钐钴 ——2025 年第 2 期 邮箱：qiuhongao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524120004 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 稀土资源的战略地位持续提升，已成为大国之间资源竞争与产业博弈的重要 焦点。稀土元素具有特殊的电子层结构，展现出优异的磁性、光学和电学性能， 它们已成为现代科技与工业中不可或缺的战略性矿产资源。在新能源、新材料、 节能环保、航空航天、电子信息、国防军工等诸多高科技领域，稀土材料发挥 着不可替代的作用。牛津能源研究所预计稀土需求在 2030 年之前都将大幅增 长，主要用作电动车和风力涡轮机上的永磁部件。 全球稀土储量分布相对集中。中国以 4400 万吨（约占全球 48%）位居第一， 其后是巴西（2100 万吨，23%）和印度（690 万吨，7.6%），美国的稀土储量 仅有 190 万吨，相当于中国储量的 4.3%。在产量端，格局则更为悬殊 ，据 USGS 估计，2024 年全球约 39 万吨的稀土矿产品产量中，仅中国就生产了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in rare earth prices and export controls by the Chinese government has led to a significant surge in the stock prices of rare earth permanent magnet companies, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1][2][3]. Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce has intensified export controls on rare earths, with new regulations announced on October 9, which include restrictions on certain overseas rare earth-related items and technologies [3][5]. - The price of rare earth concentrate has been raised by Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth, with Northern Rare Earth adjusting its price to 26,205 yuan per ton for Q4 2025, reflecting a 37% increase [2][3]. Market Performance - Companies such as Jiuling Technology and Galaxy Magnet have seen stock price increases of 28% and 20%, respectively, while Northern Rare Earth's stock has risen over 170% this year, with a market capitalization of approximately 208.6 billion yuan [1][2]. - Northern Rare Earth has projected a net profit of 1.51 to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 272.54% to 287.34% [1][2]. Industry Dynamics - The rare earth permanent magnet industry encompasses upstream mining, midstream material processing, and downstream applications in various sectors, including electric vehicles and military equipment [4][5]. - China holds over 60% of the global rare earth production and has a significant advantage in refining and extraction technologies, which are crucial for maintaining its market position [5][6]. Strategic Value and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent export controls will enhance the strategic value of the rare earth industry, potentially leading to improved valuations for listed companies in the sector [5][6]. - The tightening of export controls is expected to strengthen China's pricing power in the global rare earth market, with implications for future supply and demand dynamics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have highlighted China's export control on the rare earth element samarium, which is crucial for advanced military technologies, raising concerns in the global defense industry [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Dependency - China accounts for approximately 87% of the global supply of samarium, with Lockheed Martin indicating that each F-35 fighter jet requires 1.2 kg of samarium-cobalt permanent magnets, essential for radar and missile guidance systems [1]. - New export license regulations from China have led to a situation where U.S. military-grade samarium-cobalt permanent magnet inventories can only sustain production needs for about six months, indicating a potential supply chain crisis [1]. - Despite efforts to rebuild the rare earth supply chain through the Inflation Reduction Act, the cost of producing military-grade samarium in California is 3.2 times higher than that of similar products from China [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Challenges - The Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute in China has made breakthroughs in samarium-iron-nitride magnet technology, increasing energy density by 40% compared to traditional samarium-cobalt materials, complicating U.S. efforts to find technological alternatives [3]. - A significant 83% of rare earth material suppliers in the existing military certification system are still from China, creating a challenging dependency for U.S. defense contractors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Impact - From January to August 2024, China's rare earth exports to the U.S. decreased by 29%, while the export price increased by 18%, indicating a strategic control over the U.S. military-industrial complex [5]. - General Dynamics in Texas has postponed the mass production of the "Abrams X" tank due to a shortage of samarium materials, which has affected the turret gyroscope standards [5]. - The limited supply strategy employed by China poses a more significant threat to U.S. military production capabilities than a complete embargo [5]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The competition over rare earth elements reflects a broader restructuring of power within global supply chains, as China leverages its technological patents and resource reserves to create new trade barriers [7]. - The ongoing silent struggle between the U.S. and China over rare earth elements is expected to profoundly influence the balance of military technology over the next decade [7].