转自：北京日报客户端 在今天的高科技产品中，智能手机运行流畅、屏幕色彩绚丽，电动车加速迅猛——这些卓越性能的背后，往往离不开一类特殊的材料：稀土。 镧系的 15 个元素从镧到镥，加上性质相近的钪和钇，共同构成了稀土家族。它们具有独特的磁、光、电等物理特性，能够在极小的体积内提供强大的磁力 和复杂的光电转换，成为许多尖端技术中不可替代的功能材料。 就拿新能源汽车来说，其驱动电机需要钕铁硼永磁体，单台车的稀土磁体高达 2 千克。我们来算一下，截至 2025 年 10 月，北京市新能源汽车保有量已达 120 万辆。假设这些车当中只有 2/3 处于高频使用的状态，那也相当于大概 1600 吨稀土磁体，每天在这座城市的道路上来来去去。 内置式永磁同步电机，图片来源：参考文献 [14] 更不用说隐身战机、精确制导武器等国防系统，对稀土材料的性能要求非常严苛。据估算制造一架 F35 战斗机要使用超过 400 千克稀土材料。 这意味着从日常消费电子到国家尖端武器，都离不开稳定的稀土供应。 "稀土"指 15 种镧系元素 + 钪、钇 | Z | 化学符 | 名称 | 应用范围 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 周期行业产业月报（2025 年 10 月） 稀土永磁体：烧/粘结钕铁硼及钐钴 ——2025 年第 2 期 邮箱：qiuhongao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524120004 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 稀土资源的战略地位持续提升，已成为大国之间资源竞争与产业博弈的重要 焦点。稀土元素具有特殊的电子层结构，展现出优异的磁性、光学和电学性能， 它们已成为现代科技与工业中不可或缺的战略性矿产资源。在新能源、新材料、 节能环保、航空航天、电子信息、国防军工等诸多高科技领域，稀土材料发挥 着不可替代的作用。牛津能源研究所预计稀土需求在 2030 年之前都将大幅增 长，主要用作电动车和风力涡轮机上的永磁部件。 全球稀土储量分布相对集中。中国以 4400 万吨（约占全球 48%）位居第一， 其后是巴西（2100 万吨，23%）和印度（690 万吨，7.6%），美国的稀土储量 仅有 190 万吨，相当于中国储量的 4.3%。在产量端，格局则更为悬殊 ，据 USGS 估计，2024 年全球约 39 万吨的稀土矿产品产量中，仅中国就生产了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global race for rare earth resources is intensifying as countries seek to establish a supply chain independent of China, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials in modern industry and defense [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are essential for high-end manufacturing and defense, with significant quantities required for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military technology [5][12]. - China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain is not solely based on reserves but also on its advanced purification technology, achieving levels of purity that many Western countries cannot match [7][10]. Group 2: Western Response and Initiatives - Following China's export restrictions and price surges, Western nations initiated various strategies to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths, including the U.S. Rare Earths Act and the EU's Critical Raw Materials Alliance [14][27]. - Australia’s Peak Rare Earths discovered a significant deposit in Tanzania, which was initially seen as a potential solution for Western supply needs [16][29]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Western Companies - Peak Rare Earths faced significant challenges, including political resistance in Tanzania and a lack of sustained investment, which hindered its ability to develop the mine [19][21]. - The company struggled financially and ultimately had to accept Chinese investment, which led to a complete acquisition by a Chinese firm, highlighting the difficulties faced by Western companies in establishing a reliable supply chain [25][29]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The acquisition of Peak by a Chinese company underscores the shifting dynamics in the global rare earth market, where Western efforts to secure independence have faltered due to financial and operational challenges [27][31]. - The situation illustrates the need for long-term investment and technological support in the rare earth sector, areas where Western companies have been lacking compared to their Chinese counterparts [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic importance in the global rare earth market, emphasizing that Western countries, particularly the U.S. and Japan, have become increasingly dependent on Chinese rare earth supplies despite efforts to reduce this reliance [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Dependency on Chinese Rare Earths - As of 2025, U.S. dependency on Chinese rare earths has increased from 90% in 2010 to 97%, highlighting a significant failure in efforts to diversify sources [4][6]. - U.S. officials, including Florida Congressman Carlos Gimenez, have expressed skepticism about the ability to compete with China in the rare earth sector [2][4]. - The only U.S. rare earth mine, Mountain Pass, still requires processing in China, indicating a lack of domestic capabilities [4][6]. Group 2: Japan's Attempts and Challenges - Japan invested 100 billion yen and 46 billion yen in overseas rare earth projects to reduce reliance on China after the 2010 supply disruption [4][6]. - Despite these efforts, Japan only recently managed to import a small amount of rare earths from outside China, with heavy reliance on Chinese sources for critical elements [6][8]. - The need for rare earths in industries such as automotive and clean energy remains a significant challenge for Japan [6][8]. Group 3: Importance of Rare Earths in Modern Technology - Rare earths are essential for various high-tech applications, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics, with specific examples provided such as the use of neodymium in electric motors [6][8][9]. - The absence of rare earths would severely hinder the performance of electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, undermining Western goals for carbon neutrality [8][9]. - The military sector is also heavily reliant on rare earths, with 78% of U.S. military weapon systems depending on Chinese supplies [11]. Group 4: China's Competitive Advantage - China's unique capability in rare earth purification and separation technology gives it a significant edge over Western countries, which struggle to replicate these processes [13][15]. - The ability to produce high-purity rare earths (4N and above) is crucial for advanced technology applications, and China's expertise in this area is unmatched [15][17]. - The article concludes that global rare earth production ultimately requires processing in China, solidifying its dominant position in the market [17].

Core Insights - TSMC's chairman, Wei Zhejia, has signaled a critical shortage of rare earth materials, indicating a plea for assistance from mainland China, which reflects deeper geopolitical tensions in the semiconductor industry [1][3] - China's dominance in rare earth processing and technology creates a significant leverage point in the global semiconductor supply chain, with 92.3% of global refining capacity and 60% of core patents held by China [1][2] - The reliance on rare earth materials, particularly neodymium-iron-boron magnets used in advanced EUV lithography machines, poses a substantial risk to TSMC's production capabilities, especially as the demand for advanced chips increases [2][3] Industry Analysis - The U.S. has struggled to achieve rare earth independence, with 90% of materials from the Mountain Pass mine still needing to be processed in China, highlighting the inefficiencies and high costs of domestic production [2] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes are increasingly vulnerable, as the consumption of rare earth materials in 5nm chips is three times that of 14nm chips, making supply chain disruptions particularly damaging [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with TSMC being forced to relocate advanced manufacturing to the U.S., despite higher costs, indicating a loss of operational autonomy and a response to external pressures [3][4] Strategic Implications - The rare earth crisis underscores a new paradigm in technology leadership, where control over upstream supply chains is as critical as technological prowess [4] - TSMC's predicament reflects broader challenges faced by global companies navigating geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for robust supply chain strategies [4]

Core Insights - The visit of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet to the eVAC Magnetics factory in South Carolina marks the production of the first neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet in the U.S. in 25 years, indicating a shift towards domestic supply chain independence [1][2] - The factory, a subsidiary of Germany's Vacuumschmelze, received significant funding from the Department of Defense and tax credits, which are expected to create hundreds of jobs and contribute to economic recovery [1][2] - The production line focuses on the final shaping of neodymium-iron-boron magnets, a step that had been absent in the U.S. for 25 years, highlighting the previous reliance on imports, particularly from China [2][4] Government Support and Economic Implications - The factory's establishment was expedited by state support, with the permitting process completed in just eight weeks, showcasing effective local governance [1][2] - Bessenet linked the factory's opening to broader economic recovery and job creation, suggesting that manufacturing will continue to grow in the coming years [1][2] - The factory's operations are seen as a step towards national security and economic independence, aligning with previous policies aimed at bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. [2][4] Industry Context and Challenges - Despite the positive developments, experts caution that the U.S. still lacks the capabilities for large-scale rare earth separation, which is essential for a complete domestic supply chain [4] - The U.S. is currently focusing on mid-range products for electric vehicles and industrial applications, while China continues to dominate the high-end military-grade magnet market [4] - The establishment of the eVAC factory is viewed by some as a result of subsidies rather than innovation, with concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. rare earth production capabilities [4] Future Outlook and Strategic Partnerships - The factory has partnered with Ucore Rare Metals to enhance North American supply chains and reduce reliance on Asian imports, indicating a strategic move towards self-sufficiency [8] - Ucore has received additional funding from the Department of Defense to commercialize rare earth separation technology, further supporting the domestic supply chain [8] - The broader geopolitical landscape is shifting, with predictions of a fragmented global economy where the U.S. and China may increasingly operate in separate spheres [8]

Core Insights - The global storage chip market is experiencing unprecedented price surges, with DRAM prices increasing by 171.8% year-on-year and NAND Flash prices rising by 98.5% [2][3] - The price hikes are driven by a structural transformation in demand due to the explosion of generative AI, which requires significantly more storage capacity compared to traditional servers [2][3] - The supply side is also adjusting, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix shifting production from traditional DRAM to AI-compatible memory types [2][3] Demand Dynamics - The demand for storage chips has escalated dramatically, with AI servers requiring 8 times more DRAM and 3 times more NAND than standard servers [2] - Training large language models necessitates 3-5TB of storage, highlighting the increased storage requirements for AI applications [2][3] - The demand surge has led to panic buying among cloud service providers, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3] Supply Constraints - From Q3 2023, major storage chip manufacturers began reducing traditional DRAM production in favor of HBM and DDR5, leading to a significant supply crunch [2][3] - The discontinuation of older products like DDR4 and LPDDR4X has further tightened market supply [3] - The supply shortage is expected to persist until mid-2026, with price volatility becoming the norm [3][12] Impact on Industries - The price increases are affecting various sectors, including smartphones, personal computers, and servers, with AI server delivery times extending from 3-4 weeks to 12-16 weeks [3][12] - Manufacturers are reevaluating pricing strategies due to rising costs and market pressures [3] Role of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth metals are becoming critical resources in the storage chip industry, transitioning from auxiliary materials to strategic resources [5][7] - China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain, holding 36% of global reserves and over 80% of production, positions it as a key player in the semiconductor industry [7][8] - The recent export controls on rare earth materials by China are expected to further impact global semiconductor production capabilities [5][7] Future Outlook - The demand for rare earth elements is projected to increase by 3-7 times by 2030, while the construction of new mining projects typically takes 10-15 years, creating a potential supply bottleneck [8] - The ongoing transformation in the storage chip market is expected to permanently alter the value chain and positioning of storage technologies within the semiconductor industry [4][12]

Core Insights - Malaysia's government has announced a partnership with a South Korean company and Australian Lynas Corporation to build a large factory for producing 3,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets, despite China's dominant position in the rare earth market [1][9] - The decision reflects Malaysia's strategic shift towards reducing reliance on Chinese technology and fostering local manufacturing capabilities [1][11] Investment and Strategic Goals - The project involves an investment of 600 million ringgit, aiming for a complete local manufacturing chain and a commitment to technology localization [1][11] - Malaysia's government is pursuing a strategy to transition from being a raw material supplier to becoming part of a value-added industrial chain, with rare earths being a key asset [3][9] Geopolitical Context - The collaboration is seen as a political move amidst the US-China competition, with Malaysia seeking to maintain "technological neutrality" [9][11] - Lynas Corporation plays a crucial role as the only company capable of large-scale rare earth separation outside of China, allowing Malaysia to avoid dependency on Chinese technology [9][17] Technology and Collaboration Dynamics - The choice of South Korea over China is not due to superior technology but rather a preference for a partnership that allows for local hiring and technology transfer without the constraints of Chinese technology protectionism [4][6] - Malaysia aims to gain autonomy in its manufacturing path, aspiring to be a key node in the international supply chain, similar to South Korea and Japan [11][21] Future Implications - The shift in Malaysia's strategy highlights a growing concern among countries about becoming too dependent on China, prompting a re-evaluation of global supply chains [19][21] - China's future competitiveness will hinge on its ability to foster collaborative ecosystems rather than merely relying on its technological superiority [14][17]

Core Insights - The U.S. government claims a "major victory" following the recent U.S.-China summit, highlighting four key commitments from China, which is perceived as a retreat by the Chinese side [1] - However, the announcement of a $1.4 billion investment in two U.S. rare earth startups aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths contradicts this narrative [1][4] - The U.S. Department of Defense's significant financial backing for these companies reveals underlying vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base, particularly its reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies [3][4] Investment and Financial Moves - The U.S. government and private investors have collectively invested $1.4 billion in two rare earth companies, with $620 million in loans from the Department of Defense and an additional $50 million from the Commerce Department [1] - The investment aims to support a rare earth magnet factory with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons, highlighting the urgency to establish a domestic supply chain [1][6] - The scale of this investment is notable, as it represents approximately 20% of the global rare earth market, which was valued at $6 to $6.5 billion last year [1] Industry Dynamics - China dominates the rare earth market, accounting for 69% of global extraction and 92% of refining capacity, with a complete supply chain from mining to processing [3] - The U.S. startups, "Firehawk Elements" and "New Element Technologies," face significant challenges due to their limited operational history and workforce, which could hinder their ability to scale production effectively [6][8] - The technology employed by "New Element Technologies" has not been validated for large-scale production, raising concerns about its viability in meeting military-grade demands [4][6] Strategic Implications - The U.S. investment strategy appears to be a reactive measure rather than a proactive solution, indicating a lack of confidence in securing stable rare earth supplies from China [4][8] - The urgency of the U.S. response is linked to upcoming midterm elections, suggesting that political motivations may be influencing defense strategies [4][8] - The ongoing competition in the rare earth sector underscores the importance of technological advancement and supply chain resilience, areas where China currently holds a significant advantage [8]

Core Insights - The meeting between Australian Prime Minister Albanese and Trump focused on a framework agreement regarding rare earths and critical minerals, signed on October 20, 2023, amid China's recent export restrictions on rare earths [1][3] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement entails a joint investment of $1 billion each from the U.S. and Australia over the next six months to enhance Australia's rare earth mining and processing capabilities [5] - There is a discrepancy in reported investment amounts, with a later announcement indicating a total of $3 billion planned for critical minerals, raising questions about the clarity of the agreement [5] - The U.S. military plans to build a gallium refining plant in Western Australia, highlighting the strategic importance of gallium in missile and satellite production [5] Group 2: Context and Implications - China's recent export restrictions on rare earths have significantly impacted U.S. industries, which rely heavily on these materials for various critical applications, including missiles and satellites [3][9] - Historically, the U.S. has struggled to achieve self-sufficiency in rare earths, with past initiatives failing to establish a robust domestic supply chain [9][15] - The potential formation of a "rare earth alliance" involving the U.S., Japan, and the EU could pose long-term challenges to China's dominance in the rare earth sector, although it may also drive China to innovate and enhance its high-value product offerings [11][13] Group 3: Industry Challenges - Australia possesses rare earth resources but lacks the advanced processing technology required to convert raw materials into usable products, which currently relies on China for over 90% of lithium processing [6][7] - The complete rare earth supply chain, from extraction to processing, requires a sophisticated technological framework that China has developed over decades, making it difficult for the U.S. and Australia to quickly establish a competitive alternative [7][9] - The competition in the rare earth industry is fundamentally about supply chain and technology, indicating that mere agreements and investments may not suffice to alter the existing market dynamics [15]