Core Insights - Tungsten has emerged as a critical resource in military industrial applications, with a melting point of 3400°C and hardness second only to diamond, making it essential for armor-piercing ammunition, missile engine components, and advanced chip manufacturing [1][7]. Resource Comparison - Global tungsten reserves are approximately 4.6 million tons, with China holding 2.4 million tons (52.17%), Russia at 450,000 tons, and the U.S. at only 140,000 tons [3]. - In China, the Jiangxi Gannan region hosts significant tungsten deposits, with the Zhu Xi tungsten mine and Wu Ning Da Hu Tang tungsten mine holding reserves of 2.86 million tons and 1.06 million tons, respectively, surpassing the combined reserves of the U.S. and Russia [3]. U.S. and Russian Challenges - The U.S. has ceased commercial tungsten mining since 2015, relying on imports for 58% of its tungsten alloy needs, primarily from China [5]. - Russia's tungsten mining is hindered by extreme environmental conditions and high transportation costs, limiting its production capacity to 3,000 tons per year, which is only one-twentieth of China's output [5]. Military Applications - Tungsten's military value is highlighted in the Ukraine conflict, where tungsten alloy armor-piercing shells can penetrate thick armor due to their high density [7]. - The U.S. military consumes over 6,000 tons of tungsten annually, and any disruption in the supply chain could cripple half of its weapon production lines [7]. Supply Chain Control - China controls the entire tungsten supply chain, from mining to high-end processing, implementing annual quotas and monopolizing deep processing technologies, which increases costs for Western companies by 30% [9]. - Export restrictions on tungsten products starting in 2025 have already led to a 25% drop in export volumes, pushing international tungsten prices close to historical highs [9]. Historical Context - The competition for tungsten resources dates back to the 1930s, with significant historical events involving tungsten trade impacting military capabilities during World War II and the Cold War [12][14]. - The ongoing "tungsten war" reflects the geopolitical struggle for resource control, with China transitioning from a resource exporter to a technology price setter [16]. Future Implications - The strategic importance of tungsten is underscored by its applications in advanced technologies, such as nano tungsten wires for chip etching and tungsten-molybdenum alloys for hypersonic missiles [16]. - The potential for a supply disruption from China is recognized as a top-tier risk for the U.S. military, with significant implications for various industries, including aerospace and semiconductors [16].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. reveal a complex interplay of tariffs and resource control, particularly concerning rare metals, which are critical for modern industries and military applications [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has canceled 91% of tariffs on Chinese imports, but retains a 10% "base tariff" on key sectors like semiconductors, indicating a strategic approach to maintain leverage in technology [3]. - China's rare earth exports have significantly decreased, with a 37% year-on-year drop in the first four months of 2025, and exports of tungsten to the U.S. have reached zero [3][5]. - The trade negotiations are not merely about tariffs but represent a broader "resource war," where control over rare metals is seen as crucial for technological and military supremacy [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Rare Metals - Rare metals such as tungsten, tellurium, and indium are essential for various high-tech applications, including military hardware and renewable energy technologies [5][9]. - China holds a dominant position in the global supply of these metals, with 72% of tungsten, 83% of rare earths, and 95% of indium reserves, giving it significant leverage in negotiations [5][9]. - The strategic value of these metals is underscored by their critical roles in advanced military systems, such as the guidance systems of intercontinental missiles and components of fighter jets [5][9]. Group 3: Future Resource Strategies - China is implementing a comprehensive strategy to secure its resource supply chain, including establishing strategic reserves and controlling the entire production process from mining to processing [9]. - The country is actively investing in overseas mining operations to ensure a steady supply of critical materials, which could further enhance its bargaining power in future negotiations [9]. - The ongoing developments suggest that while tariffs may be paused, the underlying competition for resource control will continue to intensify, impacting global supply chains and geopolitical dynamics [1][9].