SDICSI 2025 年 8 月 22 日 佳鑫国际 (3858.HK) 佳鑫国际（3858.HK）IPO 点评报告 报告摘要 公司概览 佳鑫国际是扎根于哈萨克斯坦的钨矿公司，专注于开发巴库塔钨矿。公司此次寻求在香港 以及哈萨克斯坦的阿斯塔纳国际交易所（AIX）双重主要上市。根据招股书弗若斯特沙利文 资料，截至2024年底，巴库塔钨矿是一个全球最大型三氧化钨矿产资源量露天钨矿，也是全 球第四大WO3 矿产资源量钨矿（包括露天钨矿及地下钨矿）。公司产品包括含65% WO3的白钨 精矿。巴库塔钨矿项目于2025年4月开始一期商业生产，2025年的目标年度采矿及矿物加工 能力为3.3百万吨钨矿石，预计2027年第一季度就巴库塔钨矿项目展开二期商业生产，预期 达到4.95百万吨/年的目标产量。目前公司已与江西铜业香港和江西钨业就2025年及2026年 订立白钨精矿销售协议。公司预计在钨矿石精矿生产稳定后，计划使用全球发售所得款项 作进一步加工步骤，以生产仲钨酸铵及碳化钨。 根据招股书，公司2025年前未产生收入， 2025年截至6月底收入为1.26亿港币。 2022/2023/2024年度公司的归母净利为-93.6 ...

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten mining indicators in China have been tightened for two consecutive years, with the first batch of 2025 indicators decreasing by 6.5% to 58,000 tons, alongside increased efforts to combat illegal smuggling and enhance environmental inspections, aimed at controlling production and consolidating policy effects [2][4][6] - The global supply-demand relationship for tungsten is tightening, with an expected gap to continue expanding from 2026 to 2028 [2][3] - The price of tungsten concentrate in China has surged to 193,000 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative increase of 36% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historical high [2][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Export Controls**: China has implemented export controls on heavy tungsten acid, tungsten oxide, and tungsten carbide, leading to a short-term decline in export volumes. However, due to high overseas premiums, some products have seen a recovery, with ammonium paratungstate exports increasing by 70% year-on-year [2][4][6] - **Geopolitical Factors**: Conflicts between India and Pakistan have highlighted tungsten's strategic metal value, contributing to price increases [4] - **Supply Constraints**: Domestic and international supply constraints are expected to drive long-term price increases, with the market entering a bullish phase [3][4][17] - **Price Disparity**: There is a significant price disparity between domestic and overseas tungsten prices, with overseas APT prices significantly higher than domestic prices. Chinese companies can maintain growth by increasing exports to regions not subject to the 301 tariffs [2][16][20] Policy Measures - **Mining Quota Control**: China has a history of controlling tungsten mining quotas since 1991, with the first batch for 2025 set at 58,000 tons, a decrease from previous years [6] - **Export Control Implementation**: Export controls were strengthened in February 2025, leading to a drop in overall tungsten product exports, although certain downstream products like tools and blades have seen growth [22][23] - **Environmental and Smuggling Crackdown**: Increased efforts to combat illegal smuggling and enhance environmental inspections have been noted, effectively reducing over-extraction rates [6] Global Responses - **EU and US Initiatives**: Both the EU and the US have taken measures to secure critical metal supplies, with the EU setting local mining, processing, and recycling targets, and the US enhancing domestic production capabilities through legislation and international cooperation [7][9][12] - **US Tariffs**: The US has imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese tungsten concentrate and downstream products, aiming to restructure the supply chain and increase tungsten stockpiles in the fiscal years 2024-2025 [13][14][15] Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - **Supply Growth Limitations**: Global supply growth remains constrained, with emerging industries and geopolitical security demands driving long-term demand growth [17][19] - **Production Forecasts**: Global tungsten production is expected to rise from 81,000 tons in 2023 to 90,300 tons by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.57% [18][24] - **Chinese Market Drivers**: Demand in China is driven by manufacturing upgrades and large infrastructure projects, with significant growth in hard alloy tungsten material consumption [19] Price Trends and Predictions - **Short-term Price Outlook**: In the short term, the tightening supply-demand relationship and low global inventories are expected to benefit Chinese tungsten concentrate prices, potentially leading to new historical highs [24] - **Long-term Price Projections**: Long-term projections indicate that the global supply-demand gap will further widen, driving prices upward and indicating a bullish market trend [24] Investment Insights - **Company Performance Trends**: Analysis of major listed companies indicates stable profit growth driven by resource injection and downstream product price increases [26] - **Investment Selection Criteria**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong upstream resource development potential and robust downstream pricing capabilities, particularly those benefiting from high overseas premiums [27][28]

Industry Overview - The tungsten market prices have continued to rise, with domestic black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten iron prices reported at 179,000 yuan, 260,000 yuan, and 265,000 yuan per ton respectively, marking increases of 25%, 23.5%, and 24.4% since the beginning of the year [1] - A new round of price adjustments by institutions and tungsten enterprises has enhanced market bullish sentiment, supporting the upward trend in tungsten prices [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources issued a total mining quota of 58,000 tons for tungsten in April, which is a reduction of 4,000 tons and 5,000 tons compared to 2024 and 2023 respectively [1] - The quality of tungsten ore in China has declined, with tungsten ore and concentrate grades decreasing from 0.42% and 66.57% in 2004 to 0.28% and 56.08% in 2020, further limiting capacity release [1] - There has been no significant increase in domestic supply in recent years, and overseas supply from Bakuta and Sandong tungsten mines may be lower than expected, reinforcing tight supply logic [1] Company Insights - Zhongtung High-tech is a leading comprehensive supplier of hard alloy tools in China, forming a complete tungsten industry chain that includes tungsten mining, smelting, hard alloys, and deep processing [3] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry leverages its tungsten resource advantages and integrated industry chain layout, continuously enhancing its competitiveness in the high-end hard alloy products sector [4]

Industry Overview - Tungsten carbide (WC) is a compound made of tungsten and carbon, known for its high hardness, high melting point, and excellent conductivity, making it essential in various industrial applications [1][2][10] - The production of tungsten carbide in China is projected to remain above 60,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, with an estimated production of approximately 68,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2000 tons [10][12] Market Dynamics - The demand for tungsten carbide has been positively influenced by the continuous development of downstream industries, with China being the largest producer and exporter of tungsten products [1][12] - In 2024, China's tungsten carbide exports are expected to be 4,146.8 tons, generating an export value of 17,934.1 million USD, although there has been a decline in export volume in early 2025 due to new export controls [12][13] Policy Support - The Chinese government has recognized tungsten as a strategic resource, implementing policies to support the deep processing of tungsten, including plans for significant tungsten smelting projects and the development of tungsten-based new materials [6][8][24] - Recent government initiatives aim to enhance the tungsten industry chain, focusing on exploration, mining, and deep processing to create a complete industrial chain [8][24] Industry Chain - The tungsten carbide production chain includes upstream raw materials such as tungsten concentrate and graphite, with the midstream focusing on the production of tungsten carbide, and the downstream applications spanning aerospace, defense, and high-end manufacturing [16][18][20] - The production of tungsten concentrate in China is projected to reach 130,500 tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.95% [18] Application Areas - Tungsten carbide is widely used in defense and aerospace for manufacturing high-performance military equipment, as well as in high-end manufacturing for precision tools and components [24][25] - The material is also utilized in the semiconductor industry and renewable energy sectors, showcasing its versatility and importance in modern technology [24][25] Future Trends - The demand for tungsten carbide is expected to continue growing as downstream applications expand, with increasing performance requirements driving technological advancements in production [25] - Environmental policies are pushing for greener production methods in the tungsten carbide industry, aligning with national goals for sustainable development [25]

Investment Rating - The report rates the tungsten industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The global tungsten industry is experiencing a complex situation characterized by resource control competition and technological upgrades, with supply chain camp formation [2][12] - China's tungsten industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-value-added products, driven by domestic upgrades and international market expansion [3][39] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing regional procurement trends, particularly in emerging markets like Russia and ASEAN countries [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Background of the Game: Strategic Value of Tungsten Resources and Supply System - 80% of global tungsten resources come from China, while high-end application technologies are dominated by Europe and the US, leading to a clash between China's outward industrial upgrade and the US's protection of its domestic industries [12][13] - The US aims to reduce dependency on Chinese tungsten through tariffs and domestic mining initiatives, while China seeks to maintain its resource advantages and expand its international market share [2][12] 2. Policy Duel: China's and the US's Dual Strategies - China's tungsten industry policies focus on transformation and control, implementing measures such as export tariffs and quotas to manage production and sales [16][22] - The US is working to lower its reliance on Chinese tungsten by diversifying import sources and increasing domestic production through the Defense Production Act [25][30] 3. Export Trends: Acceleration of Transformation in the Tungsten Industry - China's tungsten exports are experiencing a decline in overall volume but are shifting towards high-value products, with significant growth in exports to Russia and ASEAN countries [39][51] - The export structure is changing, with a focus on high-end products like hard alloy tools, which have seen price increases and growing demand [45][43] 4. Industry Opportunities: Focus on Regional Markets in Russia, Europe, and ASEAN - The geopolitical situation is driving regional procurement, with Russia emerging as a significant market for Chinese tungsten exports, showing a compound annual growth rate of nearly 70% from 2018 to 2024 [3][51] - The EU's rearmament plans are expected to stimulate demand for tungsten products, particularly in Germany, creating opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3][51]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC highlights that the price of 65% WO3 tungsten concentrate in China has surpassed 173,000 yuan/ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 31,000 yuan and a cumulative rise of 21.8%, reaching a historical high. The firm anticipates a continued tightening of supply and demand dynamics due to limited production growth and increasing demand driven by emerging industries and safety concerns [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The growth rate of tungsten production in China is slowing, with only Kazakhstan and South Korea expected to contribute significant supply increases in the short term. The global tungsten supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028 [2]. - Domestic demand is benefiting from emerging industries such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and robotics, while overseas demand is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased demand for high-end equipment and strategic stockpiling. The global tungsten consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [2]. Price Disparity and Export Opportunities - There is a noticeable divergence in domestic and international price systems, creating an arbitrage opportunity for tungsten product exports. Since the export controls were implemented in February, overseas APT prices have surged, while domestic tungsten concentrate prices remain strong. As of June 6, overseas APT prices exceeded domestic prices by 50,000 yuan/ton, with a premium rate of 22% [2]. - Despite a 20.1% year-on-year decline in overall tungsten product exports from January to April, exports of downstream tools and tungsten iron have shown robust growth in March and April [2]. Long-term Outlook and Industry Opportunities - The tightening supply-demand situation is expected to persist, with tungsten prices entering a bull market and likely to continue breaking historical highs. The supply-demand gap for tungsten is projected to expand from 18,300 tons in 2024 to 19,100 tons in 2028, with the gap representing -18.4% to -17.4% of global tungsten demand from 2024 to 2028 [3]. - The configuration opportunities for global tungsten industry leaders are becoming increasingly prominent, benefiting from resource injection, development, and simultaneous advancement in upstream resources and downstream high-end projects [3].

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is entering a bull market phase, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging industries and geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant rise in tungsten prices and highlighting the strategic value of global tungsten industry leaders [1][3][7]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of June 6, the price of 65% WO3 tungsten concentrate in China has surpassed 173,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 31,000 yuan since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative growth of 21.8% [1][7]. - The price of tungsten has been on an upward trend since mid-March, reaching a historical high of 166,500 yuan per ton on May 16, and further increasing to 173,000 yuan by June 6 [7][8]. - The global supply of tungsten is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while global tungsten consumption is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [3][36]. Group 2: Policy Impacts and Strategic Value - The strategic value of tungsten is increasingly recognized amid de-globalization, with China tightening mining quotas and enhancing export controls, particularly affecting upstream products like APT and tungsten carbide [3][15]. - The U.S. and Europe are restructuring their supply chains and increasing strategic stockpiling of tungsten, with the U.S. imposing tariffs and planning to boost tungsten inventory levels [3][23][27]. - China's export controls on tungsten products are expected to limit the export of midstream products, while downstream high-value tungsten products may see increased export opportunities [3][30]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Demand Growth - China's tungsten production growth is slowing, with a significant drop in the over-extraction rate from 32% in 2020 to 14% in 2024, indicating a tightening supply [16][36]. - Emerging industries, such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and robotics, are driving domestic demand, while geopolitical conflicts are stimulating overseas demand for tungsten [41][45]. - The global tungsten supply is expected to face constraints, with only Kazakhstan and South Korea likely to contribute significant supply increases in the short term [36][38].

Group 1 - The article highlights China's strategic export controls on rare metals, particularly targeting the U.S. military and technology sectors, which could significantly impact U.S. defense capabilities [1][3][6] - The F-35 fighter jet, which relies heavily on Chinese rare earth elements, is experiencing production delays, indicating a vulnerability in the U.S. military supply chain [3][6] - The article emphasizes the critical role of rare metals in modern technology and military applications, positioning them as essential resources in global economic and political competition [8][10][12] Group 2 - China holds a dominant position in the global tungsten market, with 60.53% of the world's tungsten reserves and 84.52% of its production as of 2022, underscoring its influence in the industry [14][17][19] - Despite a slight decrease in global tungsten production in 2023, China remains the primary supplier, particularly to the U.S., which still relies heavily on Chinese tungsten imports [21][25][27] - The U.S. is attempting to diversify its tungsten supply sources, including contracts with Australia, but faces significant challenges due to the uneven distribution of tungsten resources and technological limitations in mining and processing [33][35][39] Group 3 - The article discusses the strategic importance of tungsten in high-tech manufacturing and military equipment, highlighting the risks associated with U.S. dependence on foreign tungsten supplies [29][31][43] - Establishing a new supply chain for tungsten in the U.S. will require substantial investment and time, making it difficult to quickly reduce reliance on Chinese resources [41][44][46] - The evolving global supply chain dynamics and the increasing demand for tungsten position it as a critical resource in future geopolitical strategies [46][48]

2 0 2 5年4月2 1日，自然资源部下达2 0 2 5年度第一批钨矿开采总量控制指标，2 0 2 5年第一批钨矿（三氧化钨含量6 5%）开采总 量控制指标为5 . 8万吨。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年第一批钨矿开采指标同比下降6 . 5%，延续下滑趋势。 2 0 2 5年国内第一批钨矿（三氧化钨含量6 5%）开采总量控制指标为5 . 8万吨，相比2 0 2 4年公布的第一批指标降低4 0 0 0吨，同比 下滑6 . 5%，降幅同比增加4 . 9 p c ts。其中，黑龙江、浙江、安徽、湖北未分配指标，江西、广东、广西、云南、甘肃和新疆分 配指标有不同程度下调。 ▍ 国内钨精矿产量下降，全球新增项目有限。 根据中国钨业协会数据，2 0 2 4年全国钨精矿产量为1 2 . 7万吨，同比下降0 . 7 8%。在钨矿开采总量控制指标的约束下，我国钨资 源开发逐渐合理有序，相对于开采总指标的超产幅度已经从2 0 1 5年的5 4 . 9%快速下降到2 0 2 4的11 . 4%。受开采指标约束、环保 监管要求、矿山品位下降等因素影响，我们预计未来钨矿供给或将继续收紧。考虑到全球钨矿新增项目有限，且多数项目处于 未开发或可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the tungsten industry, indicating a positive outlook for companies with resource advantages and deep processing capabilities [7]. Core Viewpoints - The tightening of total mining control indicators and resource scarcity are driving the upward trend in tungsten prices. The first batch of tungsten mining control indicators for 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 6.5% from the previous year [2][10]. - The global tungsten resource supply bottleneck began in 2016, leading to a shift in pricing logic from "demand narrative" to "supply narrative," initiating the longest price increase cycle in nearly 20 years [4][26]. - The recent export controls on tungsten products have significantly reduced export volumes, with March exports dropping by 63% year-on-year [3][19]. Summary by Sections Total Mining Control Indicators - The first batch of tungsten mining control indicators for 2025 is 58,000 tons, down from 62,000 tons in the previous year, primarily due to reductions in Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces [10][11]. - The overall annual total mining control indicators are expected to remain flat or decrease compared to last year, reflecting a long-term growth bottleneck in domestic tungsten supply since its peak in 2015 [12][28]. March Exports - The export control measures implemented on February 4, 2025, have led to a drastic reduction in the export of dual-use tungsten items, with March exports falling to 502 tons, a 63% decrease year-on-year [3][19]. - The newly controlled tungsten products, such as tungsten carbide and ammonium paratungstate, saw their export volumes drop to zero, while other tungsten products also experienced significant declines [17][19]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with resource supply advantages and deep processing capabilities are expected to benefit significantly from the tungsten industry's favorable cycle, as resource scarcity continues to dominate the market [5][28]. - Key investment targets include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the current market dynamics [5][28].