Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new phase with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points for the first time in 10 years, marking a 16-day consecutive rise, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in "hard technology" and resource sectors [1][13]. Market Drivers - The rapid iteration and upgrade of industries such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and brain-computer interfaces are fundamental supports for the market's sustained rise [4]. - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and foreign capital's positive outlook on Chinese assets are likely to boost overall A-share valuations [7]. - The current market sentiment reflects a shift from a "long-term bear market mindset" to a "trend upward mindset," which can create significant upward momentum [11][15]. Structural Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a structural optimistic phase driven by the resonance of policy, liquidity, and industrial cycles, rather than being merely a seasonal rally or driven by capital [14]. - The dual logic behind this market rally includes breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing fields like semiconductors and AI, alongside resource sectors benefiting from global inflation expectations and energy security strategies [14][18]. Investment Strategies - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on both "hard technology" and resource sectors, as these areas are expected to yield significant returns [31][33]. - The focus on AI hardware is emphasized over applications due to the current technological landscape, while the resource sector is seen as a defensive asset with high dividend yields [32][24]. Market Outlook - Following the breakthrough of 4100 points, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase rather than a rapid ascent, with key observations including the stability of capital structure and the breadth of sector rotation [35][36]. - The market's future trajectory will depend on several factors, including the trend of the RMB, the pace of foreign capital inflow, and the verification of industry fundamentals [36].

2025年，作为"十四五"收官之年与深圳市中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司（以下简称"中金岭 南"或"公司"）的"深化改革年"，中金岭南交出了一份稳中向好、进中提质的成绩单：1-9月实现营业总 收入485.05亿元，同比增长11.81%；归母净利润8.41亿元，同比增长5.18%；全年预计降本增效约2亿 元，并再度跻身《财富》中国500强。 2025年10月，中金岭南凡口铅锌矿资源整合I期采矿工程开工仪式在韶关仁化举行 在国内，中金岭南正全力推进"增储上产"。凡口矿资源整合Ⅰ期采矿工程已开工，广西矿业6000 吨/日采选扩产改造项目加速推进，万侯多金属矿正开展探转采的相关工作，天堂铜铅锌多金属矿勘查 取得重大突破，铜、铅、锌、银、钨等资源储量进一步提升。 做资源安全的"稳定器"：国内挖潜与海外拓展并举 "保障战略性矿产资源安全是企业的首要政治责任，更是生存发展根基。"喻鸿指出。在全球资源竞 争日益激烈的当下，铜铅锌等关键矿产资源，不仅关乎企业日常生产运营，更与国家经济安全、产业安 全紧密相连。我国虽是铜铅锌生产与消费大国，但部分高端原料仍高度依赖进口，资源供应稳定性存在 潜在风险。因此，从源头保障资源安全，增强自 ...

二是资源类板块的走强，反映百年变局下全球各国对于资源安全的强烈诉求。以31个申万一级行业划 分，有色金属行业是本轮13连阳期间表现最好的板块，整体涨幅接近20%。其中，铜、铝及各类能源金 属板块个股涨幅靠前。 当下，全球地缘博弈和资源保护主义为本就脆弱的资源供应端带来更多挑战，并加速重构大宗商品贸易 秩序，这一趋势在过去20年间极少出现，且在将来仍存在巨大的不确定性。事实上，上述新科技赛道背 后的"AI竞速"，也在一定程度上反映了该时代特征。 （上接1版） 而资本市场不断提高对前沿领域的适配度，成为推动新科技赛道风起云涌的主要背景。2025年底，上交 所发布业务指引，推进科创板第五套上市标准在商业航天等领域扩围，加快推进商业航天创新发展，主 动服务航天强国战略。 回到市场制度方面，在新的全球经济格局下，资本市场被赋予前所未有的战略使命，已超越若干年前的 融资渠道定位，跃升为驱动国家竞争力重构的重要引擎。在"稳住楼市股市"的定调下，资本市场各项改 革加速推进同样是新的时代注脚。 近两年来，资本市场有关中长期资金入市、投资者回报优化、科创企业支持体系升级等方面的改革渐次 落地，深刻改变了A股的资金结构与交易逻辑。 ...

展望2026年，机构普遍认为，全球对于资源安全的诉求将成为新主线，AI投资等带来的新需求也将成 为新一轮商品周期的驱动力量。中金公司在大宗商品2026年展望报告中，总结了有望贯穿全年市场的三 条投资主线： 1月5日，能源类期货走势分化。沥青期货增仓上行，主力合约BU2602收盘报3133.0元/吨，涨幅3.95%， 所有合约日内增仓38946手，增仓幅度近10%；原油期货则明显走弱，主力合约SC2602收盘报421.7元/ 桶，跌幅3.39%。 元旦假期，海外地缘冲突升级，美国于1月3日对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，成为引发能源期货价格 波动的重要原因。多家机构表示，委内瑞拉原油是沥青型炼厂的重要原料，此次供应中断可能引发沥青 原料短缺。 广发期货研报表示，OPEC数据显示，委内瑞拉石油储量达3032亿桶，占全球的17%，是全球石油储量 最高的国家。其中，马瑞原油（Merey）是委内瑞拉核心出口原油品种，该品种属于典型高硫超重质原 油，沥青收率达60%（中东地区常规原油的沥青收率多在30%），是沥青型炼厂的重要原料，其短期供 应中断将直接引发沥青原料短缺，推高沥青价格。 有色金属期货昨日也整体走强。工业金属领 ...

然而，目前国内铝土矿进口依赖度高、铝资源供给不足，碳排放强度高导致节能降碳压力巨大以及高端 产品依赖进口等问题日益凸显，中国铝行业正面临资源瓶颈与转型升级的双重挑战。 工信部等十部门发布的《铝产业高质量发展实施方案(2025—2027年)》(下称《方案》)从原料保障、产 业布局及技术创新等维度明确提出量化目标：到2027年我国铝产业链供应链韧性及安全水平将显著提 升，重点实现国内铝土矿资源量增长3%-5%、再生铝产量突破1500万吨；推动电解铝行业能效标杆产能 占比超30%、清洁能源使用率超30%、赤泥综合利用率超15%；同步突破低碳冶炼、精密加工等关键技 术，培育高端铝材消费新增长点。 铝作为关键基础原材料和战略资源，是我国第一大有色金属产业。近年来，我国铝产业迅猛发展，已成 为全球最大的生产与消费国。2024年我国氧化铝、电解铝、铝加工材和再生铝产量保持世界第一，分别 约为8500万吨、4400万吨、4950万吨和1050万吨，有力支撑了航空航天、新能源、新一代信息技术等战 略性新兴产业发展。 该政策直击行业目前面临的三大痛点——资源安全、绿色转型与高端替代，专业人士指出，随着政策落 实，产业链上下游整合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Action Plan for Promoting the Application of Recycled Materials" aims to increase the application ratio of recycled materials, accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of key industries, ensure the safety of industrial and supply chains, and enhance the effectiveness of the circular economy [1][2]. Group 1: Goals and Objectives - By 2030, the recycling system for waste will be further improved, with annual recycling volumes of waste steel and waste paper exceeding 300 million tons and 8 million tons respectively, and production of recycled non-ferrous metals and recycled plastics reaching over 25 million tons and 19.5 million tons respectively [1][2]. - The application of recycled materials in sectors such as automotive, electronics, textiles, and packaging will steadily increase, enhancing their role in resource security and energy conservation [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Enhancements - The plan emphasizes enhancing the supply capacity of recycled steel, improving the supply level of recycled non-ferrous metals, and increasing the production capacity of high-quality recycled plastics [2]. - It encourages the application of more recycled materials in automotive manufacturing, electronics, and battery production, while promoting the use of recycled materials in textiles and packaging [2]. Group 3: Policy and Management Framework - The plan proposes to establish a standard certification system for the promotion and application of recycled materials, advance data traceability management, and improve market mechanisms for carbon reduction related to recycled materials [2]. - It aims to create incentive policies for promoting the application of recycled materials and facilitate the utilization of overseas recycled raw materials [2]. Group 4: Significance and Impact - The implementation of the "Action Plan" is seen as a significant step towards transforming resource utilization methods and improving resource efficiency, contributing to the green and low-carbon transformation of key industries and the stability of supply chains [3].

Group 1: Overall Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a significant transformation due to geopolitical shifts and economic changes, leading to a re-evaluation of resource values and pricing mechanisms [18][24][25] - The year 2025 marked a historic bull market for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, which redefined their financial and hedging attributes [18][27] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index achieving an annual increase of 87.05%, outperforming major market indices [20] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The long-term bullish logic supporting gold remains intact, with expectations for a structured upward trend in gold prices through 2026, driven by a weakening US dollar and rising debt risks [3][34] - The anticipated transition in US Federal Reserve leadership is expected to create short-term trading opportunities around gold prices, influenced by market uncertainties [4][34] - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to slow down, impacting the overall market dynamics for gold in the near term [3][34] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper supply is entering a long-term structural bottleneck, with a significant decrease in new mine production expected by 2026, enhancing the bargaining power of core mines [5][9] - The smelting sector is facing a "zero processing fee" era, leading to accelerated industry consolidation as high-cost smelting enterprises exit the market [9][10] - The fundamental support for copper prices is strong, with an expected widening supply-demand gap in 2026, indicating a trend of rising prices [9][10] Group 4: Aluminum Market Trends - The aluminum industry is witnessing a shift in value dynamics, with a focus on structural premiums due to increased reliance on imported resources [10][11] - The market for alumina is expected to face challenges due to oversupply and pressure on profitability, while the electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for growth driven by energy value [10][11] - The profitability within the aluminum industry is anticipated to concentrate further towards the downstream smelting segment, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Lithium Market Outlook - The lithium market is projected to experience a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, although there are risks of mismatched release rhythms [11][12] - The recovery in lithium prices is expected to be supported by a rebound in demand from the energy storage sector, despite uncertainties in the electric vehicle market [11][13] - Investors are advised to monitor the construction and installation pace of domestic energy storage projects to better capture investment opportunities in the lithium sector [11][13]

全球铼已知储量加起来不到2500吨，主要窝在智利、美国、俄罗斯那儿。智利独占鳌头，1300吨，美国 390吨，俄罗斯310吨。2019年全世界一年就产45吨，智利占了近一半。因为开采提纯门槛高，一克铼卖 几百块，跟铂金差不多贵重。中国对铼的找矿从60年代起步，那时候全靠进口凑合，产业从头建起，慢 慢搞出自己的生产链。 矿藏乍现，资源丰盈 铼属于那种稀缺的过渡金属。早在1925年，德国人从钼矿里头提炼出来，取名源自莱茵河的拉丁词。它 的熔点高得离谱，3186摄氏度，就比钨低点，沸点更是5596摄氏度，全元素里数一数二。地壳里铼少得 可怜，每十亿份才一份，通常跟钼或者铜矿掺和一块儿，提取起来很费劲，得经过一堆化学步骤才行。 2010年，陕西洛南县黄龙铺钼矿区本来冲着钼去的，结果意外探到伴生铼，金属量176吨，占全球7%， 一下子成了国内头号矿藏。这地方原先是钼矿为主，铼藏在深处，得靠精密设备探测。 七年后的2017年，安徽泾县湛岭钼矿床又探明30吨铼，矿床条件不错，铼分布稳当。地质队用数据分析 和仪器，摸清了铼的规律，这些发现可不是天上掉馅饼，得益于长期积累。 两次加起来超200吨，极大缓解了铼缺口。中国地质专家 ...

说起中国企业在海外搞矿业投资，这几年最亮眼的案例得数拉斯邦巴斯铜矿了。这座矿藏在秘鲁安第斯 山脉里头，当初中国五矿领头的联合体花了70亿美元买下来，现在算起来价值已经破千亿了。 2014年，全球铜价正低迷，矿业公司到处叫苦，不少人觉得这笔买卖是高风险赌博。可十年过去，这矿 不光稳稳产出，还成了中国资源安全的海外支柱。 中国五矿资源有限公司是主角，它是五矿集团的子公司，2014年联合中信金属和国新国际，组了个团 队，从嘉能可斯特拉塔手里接盘拉斯邦巴斯。 嘉能可是全球矿业大佬，那时候他们正忙着并购，需要甩掉部分资产来满足监管要求，尤其是中国商务 部的反垄断审查。 结果，联合体出价5.85亿美元买股权，外加2014年已经投进去的资本支出，总共支付了70.05亿美元。 这笔钱不小，当时创下了中国金属矿业海外并购的纪录。矿区位于秘鲁阿普里马克省，海拔高，资源丰 富，已探明铜储量超过1000万吨，平均品位0.62%，还伴生钼、金、银。 买下来后，五矿占股62.5%，国新22.5%，中信15%。融资方面，用了股权加银行贷款，中国开发银行带 头，凑了70亿美元的银团贷款，工行、进出口银行也掺和了。 这买卖不是一时冲动，五矿看 ...

三是引领绿色转型，塑造中国标准。近年来，五矿商会陆续开发了四项可持续矿产相关国际标准，《中 国矿产供应链尽责管理指南》已获得伦敦金属交易所（LME）等重要国际机构的认可，使我国企业首 次可以在国际交易中使用"中国标准"。此外发起成立"绿色矿产委员会"，通过搭建矿产供应链上下游协 同共赢的合作机制，帮助企业实现负责任采购和可持续供应链治理，帮助企业在全球市场赢得合规竞争 的先机。 18日，中国五矿化工进出口商会（以下简称"五矿商会"）副会长刘丹阳在中国铁矿石现货交易平台第十 一届会员大会上表示，当前全球产业链供应链格局面临深刻重塑，保障包括铁矿石在内的关键矿产资源 安全，已提升至前所未有的战略高度，成为必须面对的时代课题。 刘丹阳介绍，近年来，五矿商会围绕钢铁行业的高质量发展与资源安全保障开展了一系列工作。 一是规范大宗商品进出口秩序，保障我国能源资源安全。2023年起，五矿商会负责铁矿石、铜精矿、原 油、钾肥和稀土进出口信息收集、整理、分析和核对等工作，为3000多家企业提供服务，定期向相关部 委报告大宗商品进口（出口）早期数据，监测市场变化，及时发布行业信息。 二是维护行业权益，应对全球挑战。面对复杂的国际 ...