刚果金鲁巴亚矿区停产催化钽价上行，年内涨幅60%+。 参考阿格斯金属网，钽精矿已升至160-165美元/磅，刷新本世纪新高，但距离350美元的历史高点仍有明显距离。 东方钽业：资源溢价/产能扩张双击，目标市值640e，看150%空间 刚果金鲁巴亚矿区停产催化钽价上行，年内涨幅60%+。 参考阿格斯金属网，钽精矿已升至160-165美元/磅，刷新本世纪新高，但距离350美元的历史高点仍有明显距离。 集团钽铌锡矿技改稳步推进，扩产+涨价显著增厚矿山利润，远期利润22e。 实控人Taboca旗下矿山年产精炼锡6000 东方钽业：资源溢价/产能扩张双击，目标市值640e，看150%空间 扩产增厚0.5e（1.6e*0.3倍扩产），涨价10w增厚8e（10w*8000吨） 空间测算：2028年主业10e+矿22e，20Xpe，对应市值640e，空间150%。 钽铌：远期利润看12e。 扩产增厚1.1e（0.9e*1.2倍扩产），涨价60%增厚10e（10w*1万吨） 锡：远期利润看10e。 集团钽铌锡矿技改稳步推进，扩产+涨价显著增厚矿山利润，远期利润22e。 实控人Taboca旗下矿山年产精炼锡6000吨、钽铌铁合金 ...

Q&A 2026 年稀土板块的投资机会和价格走势如何？ 2026 年稀土板块的投资机会非常值得关注。首先，供给端方面，稀土供应整 体偏紧。自去年 12 月底到今年 2 月中旬，稀土现货价格从 60 万元涨至 86 万 元，涨幅接近 50%；期货价格则突破 92 万元，上涨超过 50%。这一趋势类似 于 2011 年和 2021 年的情况。央企主导的两大稀土集团在新的一年里并未放 开指标，而独立于央企之外的民营企业也因没有配额而减产甚至停产。因此， 我们预计未来三个月月度供给将环比减少 800 吨至 1,000 吨，同比下降约 10%。 需求端来看，今年市场普遍预期稀土出口需求会较好，尤其是与美国关 系改善后，出口需求可能逐月上涨。而国内新能源车需求虽前期偏悲观，但目 前磁材厂订单情况超预期。如果 3 月份订单节奏加快，下游磁材厂将开启一轮 补库。目前库存处于中低水平，这将进一步推动需求。 综合以上因素，我们认 为今年上半年稀土价格有望突破 2021 年的历史高点（氧化钕曾达到 110 万元/ 战略金属（稀土钽钨）更新 20260223 摘要 稀土价格飙升：氧化钕期货价格已突破 92 万元，涨幅超 50%，与 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [21]. Core Insights - The operational performance of Pilbara Minerals in Q4 2025 met expectations, reflecting ongoing improvements in mining efficiency and strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing ore processing capacity [1]. - The total mining volume increased from 7.7 million tons in the previous quarter to 8.1 million tons, indicating effective operational measures and a shift towards self-operated mining [1]. - The average expected actual selling price for lithium concentrate was $1,161 per ton (CIF, SC5.2), representing a 56% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 66% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a robust balance sheet with a cash balance of AUD 954 million and an undrawn credit facility of AUD 625 million as of December 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Lithium Concentrate Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, lithium concentrate production totaled 208,000 tons, a 7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but an 11% increase year-on-year [2]. - Total sales of lithium concentrate reached 232,000 tons, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. - The lithium recovery rate was 75.8%, and the company implemented additional crushing capacity to ensure operational continuity during periods of increased wear [2]. 2. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of AUD 373 million in Q4 2025, a 49% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 73% increase year-on-year [7]. - Operating cash profit was AUD 166 million, driven by price increases and ongoing cost optimization [7]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were AUD 45 million in cash terms, with a focus on mine development and infrastructure [8]. 3. Upstream Development Projects - The company is strategically positioning itself during the lithium market downturn to maintain operational capability and performance expectations [9]. - The Ngungaju processing plant is under evaluation for potential restart, with preparations including crusher upgrades [11]. - The P2000 feasibility study is ongoing, assessing the potential expansion of the Pilgangoora project to approximately 2 million tons per year [12]. 4. Chemical Business Strategy - The chemical business strategy focuses on maintaining long-term growth options within the lithium value chain [14]. - The midstream demonstration plant project in Australia was completed in Q4 2025, with updates on commissioning expected soon [16]. - The joint venture with POSCO for downstream production of lithium hydroxide is progressing, with production lines successfully meeting commercial standards [17].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [22]. Core Insights - The operational performance of Pilbara Minerals in Q4 2025 met expectations, reflecting ongoing improvements in mining efficiency and strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing ore processing capacity [1]. - The total mining volume increased from 7.7 million tons in the previous quarter to 8.1 million tons, indicating effective operational measures and a shift towards a self-operated mining model [1]. - The average expected actual selling price for lithium concentrate was $1,161 per ton (CIF, SC5.2), representing a 56% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 66% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a robust balance sheet with a cash balance of AUD 954 million and an undrawn credit facility of AUD 625 million as of December 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Lithium Concentrate Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, lithium concentrate production totaled 208,000 tons, a 7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but an 11% increase year-on-year [2]. - Total sales of lithium concentrate reached 232,000 tons, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. - The lithium recovery rate for the quarter was 75.8%, despite increased ore processing [2]. 2. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of AUD 373 million in Q4 2025, a 49% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 73% increase year-on-year [7]. - Operating cash profit was AUD 166 million, driven by price increases and ongoing cost optimization [7]. - Capital expenditures for the quarter were AUD 45 million in cash terms, with a focus on mine development and infrastructure [8]. 3. Upstream Development Projects - The company is strategically positioning itself during the lithium market downturn to maintain operational capability and performance expectations [9]. - The Ngungaju processing plant is under evaluation for potential restart, with preparations ongoing for upgrades [11]. - The P2000 feasibility study is progressing, with results expected in Q1 2026, focusing on expanding production capacity [12]. 4. Chemical Business Strategy - The chemical business strategy emphasizes maintaining long-term growth options within the lithium value chain, including expanding downstream markets [14][15]. - The midstream demonstration plant project in Australia was completed in Q4 2025, with updates on commissioning expected soon [16]. - The joint venture with POSCO for downstream lithium hydroxide production continues to show technical strength, despite market challenges [17].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [3][20]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, lithium concentrate production reached 224,800 tons, a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, indicating sustained reliability and processing capacity following the successful completion of the P1000 expansion [1]. - The average actual sales price of spodumene concentrate was $742 per ton, a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 9% increase year-on-year [2]. - The unit operating cost (including freight and royalties) decreased by 9% to $422 per ton, reflecting effective cost control measures [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of AUD 251 million in Q3 2025, a 30% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 20% increase year-on-year [5]. Production and Sales Performance - Lithium concentrate sales in Q3 2025 were 214,000 tons, a 1% decrease quarter-on-quarter but nearly flat year-on-year [1]. - The lithium recovery rate improved significantly to 78.2%, up from 71.6% in the previous quarter, showcasing the effectiveness of operational strategies [1]. - Tantalum concentrate production totaled approximately 74,267 pounds, a 25% increase quarter-on-quarter, while shipments reached about 66,161 pounds, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 29% increase year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance - The company ended Q3 2025 with cash of AUD 852 million and undrawn credit facilities of AUD 625 million, with a cash outflow of AUD 19 million due to financing activities and foreign exchange changes [5][6]. - Operating cash profit for Q3 2025 was AUD 8 million, benefiting from price increases, although affected by timing factors [5]. Upstream Development Projects - The Ngungaju processing plant is expected to remain in maintenance mode throughout FY 2026 to flexibly increase production capacity amid rising lithium prices [7]. - A feasibility study for the P2000 project is anticipated to be published in FY 2027, with development progress dependent on research outcomes and funding [8]. Downstream Development Projects - The midstream demonstration plant in Australia is on track for completion in Q4 2025 [11]. - The joint venture with POSCO in South Korea has seen production lines operating in a moderate batch production mode to optimize operational efficiency amid fluctuating lithium prices [12]. - A feasibility study with Ganfeng Lithium regarding the construction of a lithium salt processing plant is ongoing, with site assessments being conducted [15].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming period [5]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company produced 85,892 tons of lithium concentrate, a 10% decrease from Q1 2025, while sales increased by 4% to 97,330 tons [1][2]. - The average realized price for lithium concentrate (SC6) in Q2 2025 was $740 per ton, down 9% from $815 in Q1 2025 [2]. - The unit operating cost (FOB) for sold lithium concentrate rose by 31% to $576 per ton, reflecting increased sorting costs and reduced inventory [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 96 million AUD in Q2 2025, an 8% decrease from 104 million AUD in Q1 2025, primarily due to the decline in average realized prices [3]. Production and Sales Summary - Q2 2025 lithium concentrate production: 85,892 tons, down 10% from Q1 2025 [1]. - Q2 2025 lithium concentrate sales: 97,330 tons, up 4% from Q1 2025 [1]. - Q2 2025 average realized price for SC6: $740 per ton, down from $815 in Q1 2025 [2]. - Q2 2025 unit operating cost (FOB): $576 per ton, up from $440 in Q1 2025 [2]. - Q2 2025 cash balance: 156 million AUD [4]. Financial Metrics - Q2 2025 net cash inflow from operating activities: 23 million AUD [7]. - Q2 2025 net cash outflow limited to 17 million AUD due to business optimization efforts [7]. - Expected non-cash impairment of inventory between 75 million to 85 million AUD for the fiscal year 2025 [8]. Future Guidance - For FY 2026, production guidance is set at 365,000 to 450,000 tons, reflecting a growth of 24% to 53% compared to FY 2025 [10]. - The company plans to transition to 100% underground mining operations in FY 2026, focusing on operational and strategic discipline [9]. - Unit operating costs for FY 2026 are expected to range from 855 to 1,045 AUD per ton [13].