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瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20260213
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 09:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, suppressing the mid - year Fed rate - cut expectation. The first rate cut this year is postponed to the July FOMC meeting, causing a marginal weakening of market risk appetite and a collective oscillating correction in the precious metals market. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. The core variable lies in the balance between the subsequent inflation rebound risk and the cooling trend of the employment market. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium still have room to rise under the boost of their financial attributes [7]. - The EU's official postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and the simultaneous strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards have led to higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales have been moderately revised down due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial fundamentals of platinum and palladium still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, combined with the implementation of the new vehicle emission policy, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - The US January non - farm payrolls data showed an unexpected increase, but last year's data was also unexpectedly revised down, intensifying market divergence in interpreting the non - farm data. Fed officials still have differences in their recent statements, with some re - emphasizing the risk of inflation rebound. They will continue to follow a data - dependent path [7]. - The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, they have room to rise under financial - attribute support [7]. - The EU's new policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve platinum's medium - to - long - term demand. The "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue due to the supply - demand pattern [7]. - The London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2200 and support at $2000; the London palladium may face resistance at $1800 and support at $1600. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may trade in the range of 460 - 600 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may trade in the range of 400 - 460 yuan/gram [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange oscillated within a range. As of February 13, 2026, the palladium 2606 contract was at 416.80 yuan/gram, up 1.53% week - on - week; the platinum 2606 contract was at 523.80 yuan/gram, up 3.52% week - on - week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of February 3, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 20,207 contracts, down 8.26% month - on - month; the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 2,307 contracts, up 18.77% month - on - month [13][17]. - This week, the basis of the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the NYMEX weakened. As of February 12, 2026, the basis of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, and the palladium contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram; the NYMEX platinum basis was - 22.30 dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 52.50 dollars/ounce, showing a week - on - week weakening [18][20][27]. - This week, the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories both decreased. As of February 12, 2026, the NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369.21 ounces, down 9.76% month - on - month; the palladium inventory was 186,863.10 ounces, down 2.10% month - on - month [28][32]. - Platinum and gold prices showed a strong synchronicity, with platinum price fluctuations being more significant. The gold - platinum ratio declined this week [33]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [39]. - Since 2023, the demand for platinum and palladium in vehicle exhaust catalysts has been declining year by year. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a mild slowdown [45][50]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [55]. - The price differences between the domestic and foreign markets of platinum and palladium have shown a converging trend [59]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield fell nearly 4% [63]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio declined [67].
瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20251212
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 09:30
Group 1: Report Summary - The main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed a volatile and upward trend this week. The platinum 2606 main contract rose 2.67% to 452.05 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 2.58% to 389.45 yuan/gram [8]. - Driven by the good news of the Fed's interest rate cut, the prices of platinum and palladium broke through the previous consolidation range and regained upward momentum [8]. - In the medium and long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. The demand for palladium is expected to weaken, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support its price [8]. - In the short term, due to the recent large increase in the precious metal market, attention should be paid to the risk of correction [8]. - The resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are 1750 US dollars/ounce and 1600 US dollars/ounce respectively; for London palladium spot, they are 1600 US dollars/ounce and 1400 US dollars/ounce. The reference ranges for platinum 2606 and palladium 2606 contracts are 445 - 460 yuan/gram and 385 - 400 yuan/gram respectively [8]. Group 2: Spot and Futures Market - As of December 12, 2025, the palladium 2606 main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was reported at 389.45 yuan/gram, up 2.58% for the week; the platinum 2606 main contract was reported at 452.05 yuan/gram, up 2.67% for the week [13]. - As of November 10, 2025 (latest), the total position of NYMEX platinum was 80,545 contracts, a 2.15% increase month - on - month; the net long position was 24,746, a 0.55% decrease month - on - month. The total position of NYMEX palladium was 20,626 contracts, a 4.64% increase month - on - month; the net long position was - 893, a 44.03% decrease month - on - month [16]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [17]. - As of December 11, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 614,561.35 ounces, a 0.11% decrease month - on - month; NYMEX palladium inventory was 189,229.71 ounces, a 9.77% increase month - on - month [25]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold decreased slightly [26]. - This week, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices rebounded [29]. - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and inventory, VIX index, and real yield of US Treasury bonds has increased [33]. Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand - As of October 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased [37]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally [42]. - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend [47]. - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined [52]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated weakly [55].