—10 月美联储议息会议点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 10 月 29 日，美联储召开议息会议，降息 25BP 至联邦 基金目标利率区间 3.75%-4.00%，12 月 1 日起结束缩表。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 鲍威尔为 12 月降息泼冷水 本次鲍威尔定调偏鹰，给市场过度定价 12 月降息浇冷水，他强调"远非（Far from it）板上钉钉"。此外，美联储内部对 12 月是否降息亦存强烈分歧，美 国政府结束关门后的通胀与就业数据成为 12 月议息会议能否顺利降息的关 键。结束缩表短期是缓解流动性压力，意味着美联储从控总量转向调结构，有 助于缓解近期回购市场波动，美债收益率曲线向正常化方向移动，但此前市场 已有充分预期，亦非更为宽松之举。 资产方面，短期风险资产波动加大，中期仍然看多美股。本次答记者问中鲍威 尔提及美股与 AI 投资时的态度似乎更乐观，在对比 90 年代末的互联网泡沫时 他提到当下估值高的科技企业有盈利支撑，这是与 90 年代最大的不同，AI 投 资也确实是今年美国经济增长的重要来源。考虑到目前标普 500CAPE 已高达 41.1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周一，在联邦政府关门导致官方劳动数据暂停发布的背景下，芝加哥联储利用私营 部门数据构建的模型显示，美国10月失业率大致维持在4.3%附近，与8月的官方读数一致，表明就业市 场进一步降温但尚未出现失控迹象。 美联储本周召开议息会议，市场普遍预计将再度降息25个基点，一方面作为对经济放缓和数据盲区风险 的保险性操作，另一方面也是为了提前对冲失业率潜在的突然上行压力。 芝加哥联储此前估算，9月未四舍五入的失业率为4.34%，8月为4.35%。由于9月官方失业数据缺失，该 模型被迫以上一月自身"实时估算"作为基准，进而推算10月水平。芝加哥联储提醒，这一做法可能在政 府停摆持续时间较长时累积误差，但预计在未来一至三个月影响"仍然有限"。 该模型结合多类私营来源，与劳动力市场不同切面高度相关。芝加哥联储指出，当前估算结果与仍正常 公布的部分州级失业救济申领小幅上升趋势一致，显示美国就业已明显降温，但尚未进入衰退性恶化。 ...

市场对于10月份再次降息的预期几乎已被完全消化。根据联邦基金期货数据显示，投资者普遍认为降息25个基点的可能性接近百分之百。自去年底以来， 美联储仅在9月实施过一次降息，该举措被视为应对经济增长放缓的信号。 然而，美联储内部对于未来利率路径仍存分歧。多数官员预计今年还将实施两次降息，但部分决策者倾向于维持当前利率水平不变。这种分歧反映了政策 层对经济前景的不同判断，也使未来政策方向更具不确定性。 在通胀仍未完全受控、就业市场又显降温的背景下，美国货币政策再次成为市场焦点。美联储主席鲍威尔近期表示，劳动力市场疲软与关键经济数据延迟 正在加大政策判断的不确定性，市场普遍预计本月将迎来新一轮降息。 一、就业市场降温与潜在风险 鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会年会上指出，近期招聘活动明显放缓，就业增长势头正在减弱。虽然失业率仍处于较低水平，但劳动力市场的降温可能预示经 济放缓的风险。他表示，过去的强劲就业表现已出现疲态，而进一步的岗位减少或成为经济下行的早期信号。 分析人士普遍认为，就业风险上升已成为货币政策制定的核心因素。MacroPolicyPerspectives创始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多指出，劳动力市场仍承受下行压力， ...

大家好，我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，专做中长线投资——今天美联储两大"话事人"的表态，看似松了口气，实则藏着不少门道，咱们得慢慢唠， 关系到咱们手里的钱下一步怎么走。 先看鲍威尔，周二在年会上一开口，就把市场最关心的事儿挑明了：本月晚些时候，大概率再降25个基点。要知道，9月才刚降过一次，当时就说今年可 能再降两次，现在他说"经济前景没大变化"，意思就是"降息的节奏，接着来"。但别光听好消息，鲍威尔翻来覆去提一件事：招聘慢了，而且可能越来越 慢。他甚至直言，"就业岗位再少，失业率早晚得涨"——之前那阵子就业稳步向好，现在看来，大概率要踩刹车了。 更有意思的是，市场早就把这点摸透了。联邦基金期货的数据显示，大家对10月降息的预期，几乎快到100%了，鲍威尔这通讲话，算是给市场吃了颗"定 心丸"，没超预期，但也没泼冷水。 不过有个麻烦事绕不开：美国政府停摆，关键数据全断档。非农就业报告推迟发布，美联储想判断经济真实情况，跟摸黑走路似的。鲍威尔自己也急， 说正找私营部门的数据凑数，但官方数据才是"黄金标准"，缺了就像做菜少了盐，"根本没法完全替代"。要是停摆再拖，10月的数据都没法收集，到时候 政策能不能踩对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly Williams, supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential risks of a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Assessment - Williams highlighted a gradual cooling trend in the labor market over the past year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decline in job vacancies and turnover rates [2]. - He noted that the latest indicators for September show a continued moderate cooling in the overall labor market without signs of accelerated deterioration [2]. - The reasons for the slowdown in job growth are complex, involving both reduced demand for new employees and a decline in available labor supply, primarily due to decreased immigration [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Williams indicated that tariff impacts on import prices have been less severe than previously anticipated, estimating that tariffs have raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points [3]. - He observed that core inflation is gradually approaching the 2% target, with improvements in housing costs being particularly notable [3]. - There are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs on inflation, and stable inflation expectations alongside normal supply chain indicators are present [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Stance - Despite low unemployment and stable consumption, Williams maintains that monetary policy remains moderately tight, reflecting economic performance relative to maximum employment and price stability goals [4]. - He supports further interest rate cuts this year, contingent on economic data developments, with expectations of inflation rising slightly to around 3% and a gradual increase in the unemployment rate [4]. Group 4: Commitment to Independence - Williams defended the independence of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing its importance in achieving economic goals and the responsibility of its staff to maintain this independence [5][6]. - He reiterated that decisions made by the Federal Reserve are based on data analysis rather than political considerations [6].

市场普遍预期非农就业人数增加约5万，但或受季节性因素影响而有上行风险。然而，整体趋势仍然疲 弱，年内就业增长料将维持在10万以下，进一步反映就业市场正在降温。 面对这些不确定因素，市况前景愈趋难以判断，部分投资者已开始降低风险。 美国联邦政府正在停摆，普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，市场正预期重要经济数据将会延 迟公布，包括10月3日的就业数据。对以数据为依据的美联储而言，这带来挑战，尤其是当投资者正在 评估未来减息的时机和可能性之际。 美联储或需依赖ADP私人就业和首次申领失业救济金等较不完整的指标，令政策前景更添不确定因素。 数据缺乏透明度或加剧短期市场波动，令投资者难以建立具有信心的部署。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 235,000 [2] - The total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits remains at 1.94 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [2] - The August non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, with a three-month average of 116,000, marking the lowest since the pandemic recovery began in 2020 [2] Group 2 - Major companies in the manufacturing and information services sectors, such as Boeing, General Motors, and Intel, have announced layoffs, while Tesla has reportedly paused hiring on certain production lines [3] - The NFIB employment plans index has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, reflecting employers' lack of confidence in demand prospects [3] - Economic uncertainty stemming from tax and tariff policies, along with the upcoming presidential election, is causing companies to be more cautious in their capital spending and hiring decisions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's internal stance is shifting, with officials discussing the need for preemptive action if the job market unexpectedly weakens [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with over 70% probability of a cumulative 100 basis points cut by the end of the year [4] - Despite the concerning job data, some analysts caution against overreacting to single-week figures, noting that the four-week average for initial claims remains below recession thresholds [4] Group 4 - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on September 18 is being closely watched, as a rate cut would mark a shift in the current tightening cycle and provide support for the struggling labor market [5] - The ability to reverse the hiring downturn will depend on companies' confidence in future demand and the resolution of uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies [5]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market amid a sharp slowdown in hiring activities [1][2][7] - This figure exceeded economists' expectations, which had predicted a median of 235,000 claims, highlighting growing concerns about the health of the job market [2][6] - The total number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 1.94 million, suggesting persistent unemployment issues [4] Group 2 - The recent employment report showed that only 22,000 jobs were added in August, continuing a trend of significant slowdown in job growth [6][9] - The increase in jobless claims, particularly in Texas, has intensified market worries regarding employment conditions, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to resume interest rate cuts [7][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from inflation risks to supporting employment and economic growth, given the dual signs of slowing job growth and potential layoffs [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The release of the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book on September 4 indicated a strong signal of policy shift, with a 96.6% probability of a rate cut in September, marking a critical turning point in the monetary policy cycle [1][2][4] - The Beige Book highlighted a significant easing of inflation pressures, with mentions of inflation at a four-year low and 10 out of 12 districts reporting "moderate or slight" price increases, suggesting that inflation is now within a controllable range [2][3] - The labor market shows subtle changes, with employment levels remaining stable but potential downward risks emerging, such as a drop in job vacancies to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets quickly reacted to the Fed's signals, with a divergence in stock performance; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.02%, reflecting different interpretations of the rate cut's impact [4][5] - The bond market has already priced in significant easing expectations, with a 96.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 51.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October [4][5] - The currency market showed a mild but clear trend, with the USD/CNY exchange rate rising by 0.0196% to 7.1429, indicating that the dollar has not depreciated significantly despite the Fed's shift to easing [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed's emphasis on flexibility and data dependency in its policy approach suggests a shift from predetermined paths to a more responsive strategy based on economic conditions [7][9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be a critical juncture, with potential for a 25 basis point cut, but the pace of future cuts may be constrained by factors such as the possibility of inflation rebounding post-tariff reductions [8][9] - The initiation of this rate cut cycle may signify a broader adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy framework, focusing on preemptive actions in response to emerging risks rather than waiting for clear recession signals [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams anticipates a gradual cooling of the job market [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a cooling job market suggests potential shifts in monetary policy and economic conditions [1]