美联储"三把手"、纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳 动力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。 周四，威廉姆斯表示："劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他认为，如果经济如预期 发展——通胀率升至3%左右，失业率微升至当前4.3%以上——他将支持"今年降息"。 他还表示，并不认为美国经济处于衰退的边缘。通胀前景不像今年早些时候那么可怕。劳动力市场疲软 将有助于抑制通胀。 威廉姆斯的言论呼应了市场的普遍预期。联邦基金期货的定价显示，投资者预计美联储将在今年余下的 两次会议（10月和12月）中再次降息。今晚20:30，鲍威尔在美联储理事会主办的社区银行会议上有一 场开场录播讲话，届时可能将会释放有关美国经济的信号。 就业市场渐进降温引发政策调整考量 威廉姆斯详细阐述了美联储对当前就业市场状况的评估。他表示，过去一年来劳动力市场呈现渐进式降 温趋势，虽然失业率仅上升了几个十分之一个百分点，但职位空缺持续下降，离职率也降至较低水平。 "我们看到就业市场在过去一年中逐步降温，但这种降温并未引发对即将陷入衰退或急剧放缓的担 忧，"威廉姆斯说。他表示，9月份的最新指标显示，整体就 ...

市场普遍预期非农就业人数增加约5万，但或受季节性因素影响而有上行风险。然而，整体趋势仍然疲 弱，年内就业增长料将维持在10万以下，进一步反映就业市场正在降温。 面对这些不确定因素，市况前景愈趋难以判断，部分投资者已开始降低风险。 美国联邦政府正在停摆，普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，市场正预期重要经济数据将会延 迟公布，包括10月3日的就业数据。对以数据为依据的美联储而言，这带来挑战，尤其是当投资者正在 评估未来减息的时机和可能性之际。 美联储或需依赖ADP私人就业和首次申领失业救济金等较不完整的指标，令政策前景更添不确定因素。 数据缺乏透明度或加剧短期市场波动，令投资者难以建立具有信心的部署。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 235,000 [2] - The total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits remains at 1.94 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [2] - The August non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, with a three-month average of 116,000, marking the lowest since the pandemic recovery began in 2020 [2] Group 2 - Major companies in the manufacturing and information services sectors, such as Boeing, General Motors, and Intel, have announced layoffs, while Tesla has reportedly paused hiring on certain production lines [3] - The NFIB employment plans index has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, reflecting employers' lack of confidence in demand prospects [3] - Economic uncertainty stemming from tax and tariff policies, along with the upcoming presidential election, is causing companies to be more cautious in their capital spending and hiring decisions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's internal stance is shifting, with officials discussing the need for preemptive action if the job market unexpectedly weakens [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with over 70% probability of a cumulative 100 basis points cut by the end of the year [4] - Despite the concerning job data, some analysts caution against overreacting to single-week figures, noting that the four-week average for initial claims remains below recession thresholds [4] Group 4 - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on September 18 is being closely watched, as a rate cut would mark a shift in the current tightening cycle and provide support for the struggling labor market [5] - The ability to reverse the hiring downturn will depend on companies' confidence in future demand and the resolution of uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies [5]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market amid a sharp slowdown in hiring activities [1][2][7] - This figure exceeded economists' expectations, which had predicted a median of 235,000 claims, highlighting growing concerns about the health of the job market [2][6] - The total number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 1.94 million, suggesting persistent unemployment issues [4] Group 2 - The recent employment report showed that only 22,000 jobs were added in August, continuing a trend of significant slowdown in job growth [6][9] - The increase in jobless claims, particularly in Texas, has intensified market worries regarding employment conditions, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to resume interest rate cuts [7][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from inflation risks to supporting employment and economic growth, given the dual signs of slowing job growth and potential layoffs [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The release of the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book on September 4 indicated a strong signal of policy shift, with a 96.6% probability of a rate cut in September, marking a critical turning point in the monetary policy cycle [1][2][4] - The Beige Book highlighted a significant easing of inflation pressures, with mentions of inflation at a four-year low and 10 out of 12 districts reporting "moderate or slight" price increases, suggesting that inflation is now within a controllable range [2][3] - The labor market shows subtle changes, with employment levels remaining stable but potential downward risks emerging, such as a drop in job vacancies to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets quickly reacted to the Fed's signals, with a divergence in stock performance; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.02%, reflecting different interpretations of the rate cut's impact [4][5] - The bond market has already priced in significant easing expectations, with a 96.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 51.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October [4][5] - The currency market showed a mild but clear trend, with the USD/CNY exchange rate rising by 0.0196% to 7.1429, indicating that the dollar has not depreciated significantly despite the Fed's shift to easing [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed's emphasis on flexibility and data dependency in its policy approach suggests a shift from predetermined paths to a more responsive strategy based on economic conditions [7][9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be a critical juncture, with potential for a 25 basis point cut, but the pace of future cuts may be constrained by factors such as the possibility of inflation rebounding post-tariff reductions [8][9] - The initiation of this rate cut cycle may signify a broader adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy framework, focusing on preemptive actions in response to emerging risks rather than waiting for clear recession signals [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams anticipates a gradual cooling of the job market [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a cooling job market suggests potential shifts in monetary policy and economic conditions [1]

Core Points - President Trump's unprecedented threat to dismiss a sitting Federal Reserve governor has sparked significant public outcry and raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Nearly 600 economists, including two Nobel laureates, have signed an open letter urging the White House to cease actions that undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [1][10] - The ongoing debate centers around the potential for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut exceeding 90% ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting [3] Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index in July rose by 2.6% year-over-year, indicating that inflation pressures have not intensified, despite ongoing concerns from retailers about the impact of tariff policies [5] - The job market has shown signs of significant cooling, with only 78,000 new jobs added in July, far below the level needed to maintain a healthy job market [7] - The number of Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut has increased from two to at least five, with key figures expressing more dovish views [7] Political Implications - Trump's push for a substantial rate cut, aiming for a reduction of 300 basis points to around 1%, is seen as an attempt to mitigate the inflationary effects of his tariff policies and shift economic responsibility to the Federal Reserve [6][9] - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, nominated by President Biden, could allow Trump to gain greater control over the Federal Reserve's decision-making [9] - The backlash against Trump's actions includes strong statements from economists and international officials warning that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to higher long-term interest rates and inflation [10]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased slightly, indicating that companies are delaying layoffs but hiring is slowing down [1] - As of the week ending August 23, initial jobless claims fell by over 5,000 to 229,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000 [1] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending August 16 stood at 1.954 million, lower than the expected 1.966 million and the previous value of 1.972 million, suggesting that finding new jobs is becoming more difficult for job seekers [1] Group 2 - Overall, the U.S. labor market is characterized by "few layoffs and slowing hiring," with companies maintaining existing positions but being more cautious about new hires [1] - The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose to 228,500, indicating a gradual cooling trend in the labor market [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that the risks of a downturn in employment are increasing, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September [1]

Group 1 - The CDC has laid off approximately 600 employees, affecting the entire organization [1] - The layoffs come amid criticism from the CDC employee union regarding the chaotic process and the recent shooting incident at the Atlanta headquarters, which has severely impacted the agency's normal operations [3] - According to Mark Zandi, chief economic analyst at Moody's, over half of U.S. industries have begun layoffs, indicating a potential economic recession [3][4] Group 2 - Zandi noted that in July, over 53% of industries were experiencing layoffs, with only the healthcare sector showing significant job growth [4] - A report from JPMorgan highlighted that private sector hiring has decreased to an average of 52,000 over the past three months, excluding healthcare and education, signaling a substantial decline in labor demand [4]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the UK remained stable at 4.7% as of June, but the number of employed individuals decreased by 26,000 from May to June, indicating a cooling job market in the second quarter [1] - Companies are facing multiple pressures, including increased labor costs due to a new payroll tax implemented in April, uncertain trade prospects, and cautious consumer spending, which collectively suppress hiring intentions and heighten concerns about the job market [1]