1日，美国纽约，纽约证券交易所(NYSE)内，交易员在工作。 美国劳工部的最新就业数据发布仅数小时后，当地时间8月1日，美国总统特朗普因不满相关数据，宣布 已下令解雇劳工部下属的劳工统计局局长埃丽卡.麦肯塔弗，并指控她"出于政治目的操纵就业数据"。 此举遭到两党批评，被指破坏统计独立性，将数据政治化。 保守派美国企业研究所的经济学家迈克尔.斯特兰也表示，"总统将劳工统计局和官方政府数据政治化， 此举正冒着造成重大经济损害的风险"。 外媒认为，这一事件不仅凸显了人们对美国就业市场状况的质疑，也引发了对联邦机构独立性和稳定性 的疑问。3日，接受《环球时报》记者采访的专家认为，美国国内就业情况差，是其关税"回旋镖"效应 的一种体现。 北京商报综合报道 解雇麦肯塔弗的指令遭到民主党人的批评。美国民主党成员伊丽莎白.沃伦指责特朗普不仅没有帮助人 们找到好工作，反而解雇了"因为报告了他不喜欢的就业数据而成为替罪羊的统计学家"。据外媒报道， 美国劳工部长洛丽.查韦斯.德雷默当地时间1日宣布，劳工统计局副局长威廉.维亚特罗夫斯基将出任代 理局长。 美国劳工统计局前局长威廉.比奇称，解雇麦肯塔弗"毫无根据"，并在X平台上表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK central bank is likely to lower interest rates in response to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth [1] Group 1: Employment Market - Average wage growth in the UK has slowed to 5% for the three months ending in May, down from 5.3% in the previous period [1] - The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since 2021, indicating cracks in the UK employment market [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Joe Nellis from MHA Economic Advisors suggests that with easing inflation pressures, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote for a rate cut in their next meeting on August 7 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations for June's non-farm payrolls to increase by 110,000, down from 139,000 in May, and an unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][2] - Economists are divided on whether the unemployment rate will rise, with most leading indicators suggesting an increase, as the number of continuing unemployment claims has risen to nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2][3] - The private sector unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023, indicating a cooling job market [2][4] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% in May, and if this trend continues, it may keep the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% for June [3][4] - Economists have noted that the estimates for June's non-farm payrolls have the narrowest range since 2018, reflecting a consensus that job growth will slow [4][5] - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to a slowdown in consumer spending on travel-related services [4][5] Group 3 - The potential impact of trade policies and immigration changes may influence the unemployment rate, with some economists suggesting that reduced labor force expansion could help keep the unemployment rate lower [2][3] - Market reactions to the upcoming employment report are anticipated, with expectations that a disappointing report could lead to a decline in stock prices and an increase in bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Gold prices are also being closely monitored, with expectations that a weak employment report could support gold prices, while a strong report may lead to a decline [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The price of copper remains firm while the US dollar is under pressure [1] Summary According to Related Contents Copper Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,540 with a daily decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 80,900 with a night - session increase of 0.45%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,010 with a daily increase of 0.67% [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,958, a decrease of 11,491 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 223,122, a decrease of 861. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 16,830, a decrease of 5,645, and the open interest was 285,000, an increase of 1,136 [1] - The futures inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,097, an increase of 324, and that of LME Copper was 90,625, a decrease of 625. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 36.33%, an increase of 1.29% [1] - The LME copper premium was 116.3, a decrease of 65.39 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,900, an increase of 600. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 120, a decrease of 80 [1] Macro and Industry News - Macro: The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, the first monthly decline in more than three years. UBS and Citigroup warned that the cooling of the job market may accelerate interest rate cuts. Trump said that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and 40% on transshipped goods, and Vietnam "fully opening the market" to the US [1] - Micro: Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved, and the copper production scale will increase to 30 million tons per year. The negotiation result of TC/RC between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in 2025 was set at 0.0 dollars per thousand tons and 0.0 cents per pound, far exceeding market expectations. More than 33,000 metric tons of copper concentrate have been shipped from the closed Cobre Panama copper mine. Chile's copper production in May was 486,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [1][3] Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The zinc market is expected to operate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,230 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 1.00% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 128,020 lots, a decrease of 50,663 lots. The trading volume of LME zinc was 12,773 lots, an increase of 685 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 129,763 lots, a decrease of 4,670 lots. The open interest of LME zinc was 209,218 lots, an increase of 837 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 105 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The LME CASH - 3M discount was -12.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,624 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, an increase of 2,575 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, the first monthly decline in more than three years. UBS and Citigroup warned that the cooling of the job market may accelerate interest rate cuts [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].

Core Viewpoint - The employment market is showing signs of cooling, which is not a cause for concern according to Powell [1] Group 1 - Powell indicates that the current trends in the employment market suggest a reduction in job growth [1] - The cooling of the job market is viewed as a natural adjustment rather than a negative development [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of monitoring these trends for future economic implications [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.61% to $9,707.5/ton, SHFE copper up 0.58% to 78,570 yuan/ton. US trade deficit in April narrowed 55.5%, but jobless claims rose. LME copper stocks fell, Comex increased, and SHFE declined. Demand slowed due to the off - season. Sino - US trade conflict eased, and LME de - stocking supported prices. Copper prices face a directional choice, with resistance at 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, AO2509 down 1.17% to 2,953 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum was strong, AL2507 up 0.1% to 20,075 yuan/ton. Spot alumina prices fell, and upstream costs eased. Alumina production resumed, and the supply shortage improved. Aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the US tariff hike provided short - term support [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.75% to $15,445/ton, Shanghai nickel up 0.28% to 122,060 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE stocks decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel demand was weak, and new - energy demand was also sluggish. The market was in a short - term oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On June 5, 2025, the price of flat - water copper dropped 85 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 55 yuan/ton. LME stocks fell 3,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 246 tons, and social inventory increased 1.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead rose 70 yuan/ton, and LME stocks increased 1,100 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 1,928 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On June 5, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes declined. LME stocks fell 2,025 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 16,856 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On June 5, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel dropped 375 yuan/ton. LME stocks decreased 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell 48 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price dropped 0.2%, LME stocks increased 875 tons, and social inventory decreased 0.09 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose 1.5%, LME stocks decreased 160 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased 338 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, Senior Precious Metals Researcher, Intermediate Gold Investment Analyst, Excellent Metal Analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Best Industrial Futures Analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With over a decade of commodity research experience, he has published many articles and been interviewed by multiple media. His team won industry awards [50]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for May is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, down from the previous increase of 177,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.2% [1][4] Employment Data Analysis - The ADP employment data for May indicates that only 37,000 new jobs were created in the private sector, marking the smallest increase in over two years and significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [3][4] - The weak ADP data has led to increased short-term bullish sentiment for gold, as it suggests a slowdown in job growth amid ongoing trade tensions [3][4] - Despite the weak job creation figures, wage growth remains strong, with no significant changes reported in May [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that if the upcoming non-farm payroll data aligns with market expectations, it will confirm a cooling job market, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12] - A non-farm payroll figure below 130,000 could trigger heightened expectations for earlier and more substantial rate cuts, potentially leading to a significant rise in gold prices [12] - Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, particularly approaching 200,000, it may exert downward pressure on gold prices, failing to alter the prevailing economic slowdown outlook due to tariffs [12] Economic Context - The ongoing trade war has caused many companies to pause hiring, contributing to the slowdown in job growth [4][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain patient in its monetary policy approach, observing the labor market for signs of genuine weakness before making any decisions on interest rate adjustments [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicates that tariffs may increase the likelihood of a cooling job market and exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are suggested to have a direct impact on the employment market, potentially leading to a slowdown [1] - The imposition of tariffs is linked to heightened risks of rising inflation [1]

Group 1 - The British pound is experiencing a narrow consolidation pattern against the US dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.3302, showing a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - Weak employment data in the UK is exerting short-term pressure on the pound, but rising expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are injecting positive long-term economic outlook [1][3] - The UK labor market data confirms the trend of economic slowdown, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.4% to 4.5% and new job additions dropping significantly to 112,000, well below the previous figure of 206,000 [3] Group 2 - The US inflation data shows a structural cooling, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth slowing to 2.3% in April, down from 2.4% and below market expectations [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8%, aligning with expectations, while both overall and core CPI grew by only 0.2% month-on-month, significantly lower than the 0.3% market forecast [3] - The technical analysis indicates a balanced market with moving averages intertwining, and key resistance and support levels identified at 1.3402 and 1.3165 respectively, suggesting a potential trading range for investors [4]