Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, suppressing the mid - year Fed rate - cut expectation. The first rate cut this year is postponed to the July FOMC meeting, causing a marginal weakening of market risk appetite and a collective oscillating correction in the precious metals market. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. The core variable lies in the balance between the subsequent inflation rebound risk and the cooling trend of the employment market. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium still have room to rise under the boost of their financial attributes [7]. - The EU's official postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and the simultaneous strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards have led to higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales have been moderately revised down due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial fundamentals of platinum and palladium still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, combined with the implementation of the new vehicle emission policy, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - The US January non - farm payrolls data showed an unexpected increase, but last year's data was also unexpectedly revised down, intensifying market divergence in interpreting the non - farm data. Fed officials still have differences in their recent statements, with some re - emphasizing the risk of inflation rebound. They will continue to follow a data - dependent path [7]. - The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, they have room to rise under financial - attribute support [7]. - The EU's new policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve platinum's medium - to - long - term demand. The "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue due to the supply - demand pattern [7]. - The London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2200 and support at $2000; the London palladium may face resistance at $1800 and support at $1600. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may trade in the range of 460 - 600 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may trade in the range of 400 - 460 yuan/gram [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange oscillated within a range. As of February 13, 2026, the palladium 2606 contract was at 416.80 yuan/gram, up 1.53% week - on - week; the platinum 2606 contract was at 523.80 yuan/gram, up 3.52% week - on - week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of February 3, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 20,207 contracts, down 8.26% month - on - month; the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 2,307 contracts, up 18.77% month - on - month [13][17]. - This week, the basis of the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the NYMEX weakened. As of February 12, 2026, the basis of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, and the palladium contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram; the NYMEX platinum basis was - 22.30 dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 52.50 dollars/ounce, showing a week - on - week weakening [18][20][27]. - This week, the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories both decreased. As of February 12, 2026, the NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369.21 ounces, down 9.76% month - on - month; the palladium inventory was 186,863.10 ounces, down 2.10% month - on - month [28][32]. - Platinum and gold prices showed a strong synchronicity, with platinum price fluctuations being more significant. The gold - platinum ratio declined this week [33]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [39]. - Since 2023, the demand for platinum and palladium in vehicle exhaust catalysts has been declining year by year. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a mild slowdown [45][50]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [55]. - The price differences between the domestic and foreign markets of platinum and palladium have shown a converging trend [59]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield fell nearly 4% [63]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio declined [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Core View - The December non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, and the job market continued to cool. The new employment center continued to decline, but the unemployment rate dropped again, and the overall downward risk was still controllable. The market's expectation for interest rate cuts remained cautious after the data was released, with a high probability of a pause in rate cuts in January, and 1 - 2 rate cuts within 2026 likely to occur in the second half of the year [3][4][39] Summary by Relevant Catalog US 12 - month Non - farm Payrolls and Job Market Analysis - Non - farm payroll data: In December, non - farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, less than the market expectation of 60,000. The average monthly new jobs in the past 12 months were 48,000, and the new employment center further declined. The new employment numbers in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the market expectation and the previous value, and the labor participation rate marginally declined to 62.4%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.3% month - on - month, up from the previous value and in line with expectations, and 3.8% year - on - year, higher than expectations and the previous value [3][9] - Sector - specific employment: New employment mainly came from leisure and hospitality (47,000), education and healthcare (41,000), and government (13,000). All industries in the production sector laid off workers, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure due to high interest rates. The drag on employment from the government sector eased, and the service industry maintained employment resilience [3] - Private service employment: Private service employment added 58,000 jobs, up from the previous value. However, the retail industry laid off 25,000 workers for the third consecutive month, and the employment structure continued to deteriorate [19] - Government employment: In December, government employment increased by 13,000, with federal government employment increasing slightly by 2,000. Since January 2025, federal government employment has decreased by 277,000, a decline of 9.2%, and the subsequent drag on the job market from the government sector may ease [19] - Service industry employment: The end - of - year consumer demand rebounded, and employment in the catering service industry increased. The ISM service PMI in December rebounded significantly to 54.4, and the employment sub - index rose to 52, indicating that the service employment market remained resilient [23] - Production sector employment: The production sector continued to lay off workers, with a reduction of 21,000 jobs in December. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December further declined to 47.9, and the traditional manufacturing industry was still suppressed in a high - interest - rate environment [26] - Job vacancies: In November, the number of job vacancies dropped to 7.15 million, lower than expectations and the previous value. The service industry's job vacancies decreased significantly, while the production sector's job vacancies increased slightly [30] - Wage growth: In December, wage growth rebounded marginally, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.3% and a year - on - year growth rate of 3.8% higher than expectations. Most industries saw a rebound in wage growth, except for construction, professional and business services, and education and healthcare [34] - Working hours: In December, the average weekly working hours were 34.2 hours, slightly lower than expectations and the previous value. Most industries saw a decline in working hours, and the overall economic situation was stable [36] Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical risks have increased recently, with the Trump administration's military actions in Venezuela and its interest in Greenland's sovereignty. This has triggered short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, providing support for the US dollar index and precious metals. Economic data is mixed, and the market's expectation for the new Fed chair is divided between Hassett and Waller. The expectation for interest rate cuts remains cautious, with the US Treasury yield oscillating upwards and the US stock market oscillating at a high level [5][44]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market risks and the necessity for cautious investment strategies [1] Group 1 - The market presents inherent risks that investors must be aware of [1] - Individual investment decisions should consider personal financial situations and goals [1] - The article does not provide specific investment advice tailored to individual circumstances [1]

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 912,164 kilograms, with an increase of 240 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main silver futures maintained a fluctuating pattern, opening at 15,447 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 15,666 yuan, and closing at 15,521 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.44% [1] Group 2 - In the Shanghai warehouses, the total silver futures showed a net decrease of 3,483 kilograms, with specific warehouses like Zhonggongmei Supply Chain reporting a drop of 8,819 kilograms [2] - The Guangdong warehouse, Shenzhen Weibao, reported an increase of 3,723 kilograms, contributing to the overall total [2]

Group 1 - The non-farm employment report indicates a cooling job market, with November's non-farm employment increasing by 64,000, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, exceeding the previous month's 4.4% and market expectations of 4.5% [3][4] - The October data revealed a significant decline in employment, with a reduction of 105,000 jobs, far worse than the anticipated decrease of 25,000, primarily due to layoffs in government sectors, including a loss of 16,200 jobs in October alone [3][4] - Wage growth in November was only 3.5%, the lowest since May 2021, with the average hourly wage in the private sector increasing by just $0.05 to $36.86, indicating a slowdown in corporate profit growth and potential impacts on consumer spending [3][4] Group 2 - The rising unemployment rate and significant job losses in October may compel the Federal Reserve to consider more aggressive policy measures, such as increasing the frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts [4] - Market consensus suggests that the current data alone may not prompt immediate action from the Federal Reserve, as the job losses are primarily attributed to government layoffs, necessitating further data to support any policy changes [4] - The composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped from 54.2 in November to 53.0 in early December, marking a six-month low, with new business growth at its lowest in nearly 20 months, indicating a clear economic slowdown [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment data for November showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than September's 4.4% and slightly above the expected 4.5% [1] - In October, the employment figure saw a significant decline of 105,000 jobs, which was much worse than the market forecast of a decrease of 25,000 jobs, indicating a potential cooling in the job market [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted that the impact of the government shutdown on the employment data for October and November could not be quantified, leading to uncertainties regarding the completeness and comparability of the latest figures [1] Group 2 - The healthcare sector continued to be a major contributor to job growth in November, adding 46,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a reduction of 6,000 jobs, with a significant drop of 162,000 jobs in October, which negatively impacted overall employment [2] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced layoffs of 18,000 jobs in November, primarily in courier and logistics positions, reflecting a decline in consumer and logistics demand [2] - The manufacturing sector's job total has fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, which does not align with the expectations set by the Trump administration for a manufacturing resurgence [2] Group 3 - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings in November increasing by 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021, indicating a narrowing space for household purchasing power improvement [3] - The current labor market is characterized by a "low layoffs, low hiring" state, with companies showing caution in recruitment and some positions potentially being replaced by artificial intelligence, leading to a noticeable decrease in seasonal hiring compared to previous years [3] Group 4 - Following the release of the employment data, the market reacted in a dovish manner, with U.S. stocks initially rising, the dollar index declining, and U.S. Treasury yields falling, as traders believed the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates twice in 2026 [4] - Traders are focusing on the rising unemployment rate and the significant drop in October employment, which they believe increases the likelihood of further easing by the Federal Reserve [5] Group 5 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that due to the missing data for October and the first half of November, officials will approach the interpretation of the latest statistics with "a degree of cautious skepticism," warning that official data may overestimate job growth by up to 60,000 jobs each month [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates was supported by signs of a cooling labor market and easing inflation risks, as articulated by Williams, who believes that price increases will continue to slow down [1] Group 1: Inflation Insights - Williams noted that inflation remains "temporarily above" the Federal Reserve's target, but he anticipates that it may continue to decline as the impact of tariffs is absorbed by the broader economy next year [1] - The overall assessment indicates that inflationary pressures are changing, which supports the recent interest rate cut decision [1] Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - While the employment situation has not deteriorated sharply, it is gradually cooling, as reflected in official data and consumer and business surveys [1] - The gradual cooling of the labor market is a significant factor influencing the Federal Reserve's economic objectives [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the growth rate of labor costs in the U.S. has slowed to 3.5% in the third quarter, marking the lowest level in nearly four years, which suggests a cooling job market is effectively alleviating inflationary pressures [1] - The Employment Cost Index, which tracks changes in wages and benefits, increased by 3.5% year-over-year and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, lower than economists' expectations of 0.9%, reflecting weakened job market momentum and a general slowdown in hiring [1] - The Federal Reserve views the decline in labor cost growth as a key positive signal for controlling inflation, as the Employment Cost Index is considered a core monitoring indicator that accurately reflects labor market softness and future inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The labor market is experiencing a structural shift, with a decrease in hiring activities and an increase in layoffs, reaching the highest level since early 2023 [2] - The voluntary quit rate, which measures worker confidence, has dropped to its lowest level since 2020, indicating a cautious attitude among employees towards job changes and a significant decline in labor market fluidity [2] - Real wage growth in the private sector has only increased by 0.5% year-over-year after adjusting for inflation, with nominal wage growth at 0.6%, suggesting that nominal increases are largely offset by rising prices, particularly affecting younger workers [2] - The annual wage growth for government employees has also slowed due to cost-cutting measures in the "government efficiency department," leading to a continuous decline in public sector employment, which adds pressure to the overall job market [2] - Economists and policymakers are closely monitoring the upcoming November non-farm payroll report and consumer price index report, which will provide a more comprehensive economic picture, especially following delays in data releases due to a government shutdown [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market continues to show signs of cooling, as indicated by the latest report from the Department of Labor [1] Employment Data Summary - As of October 2025, the number of job vacancies in the U.S. stands at 7.67 million, slightly above the 7.615 million reported in the same month last year and the 7.658 million in September [1] - The number of hires in October was 5.149 million, down from 5.367 million in September and 5.35 million in October of the previous year [1] - The number of resignations in October was 2.941 million, showing a significant decrease both month-over-month and year-over-year [1] Layoff and Termination Trends - In contrast, the number of layoffs and discharges in October reached 1.854 million, marking an increase both month-over-month and year-over-year, and the highest level since January 2023 [1] - The decrease in resignations suggests a lack of confidence among workers in finding new employment, while the rise in layoffs indicates employers are looking to reduce labor costs, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. job market continues to show signs of cooling, with slight changes in job vacancies and hiring numbers [1][2] - In October 2025, the number of job vacancies in the U.S. was 7.67 million, slightly higher than 7.615 million in the same month last year and 7.658 million in September [1] - The number of hires in October was 5.149 million, down from 5.367 million in September and 5.35 million in October last year [1] Group 2 - The number of resignations in October was 2.941 million, which represents a decrease of 187,000 month-over-month and 276,000 year-over-year [1] - The hospitality and food services sector, as well as the healthcare and social assistance sector, saw resignations decrease by 136,000 and 114,000 year-over-year, respectively [1] - Conversely, the number of layoffs and discharges in October was 1.854 million, which is an increase of 73,000 month-over-month and 66,000 year-over-year, marking the highest level since January 2023 [1][2]