Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's copper industry has achieved remarkable results in production, consumption, corporate strength, technological innovation, and economic benefits during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to build a copper industry powerhouse in two steps, focusing on aspects such as independent innovation, resource security, green and low - carbon development, and digitalization [1][2][5] - The global copper market is facing challenges such as high copper prices suppressing demand, accelerated copper - aluminum substitution, and pressure on smelting profits. However, there are also opportunities in new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence driving demand growth. The market will be in a long - term tight balance, requiring industry collaboration, technological innovation, and ecological construction to address challenges [11][18][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs "15th Five - Year Plan" to Fully Realize a Copper Industry Powerhouse "14th Five - Year Plan" Core Development Achievements - **Output and Consumption Scale**: China's copper industry has maintained rapid growth since reform and opening - up. In 2024, refined copper production accounted for nearly 50% of the global total, and consumption accounted for 58%. Per capita copper consumption reached 10 kg, and consumption increased from 1.266 billion tons to nearly 1.5 billion tons from 2020 - 2024. The power sector accounted for 50% of domestic consumption [2][6] - **Enterprise and Resource Status**: Two Chinese enterprises have entered the global top ten in the copper mining field, with Zijin Mining ranking among the top four. Domestic refined copper production capacity is concentrated in provinces such as Jiangxi, Shandong, Guangxi, and Anhui. Significant progress has been made in domestic and overseas resource exploration [6][7] - **Economic Benefits**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the copper industry's operating income increased from 1.7 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.9%. Profits increased from 45.4 billion yuan to 95.3 billion yuan, accounting for 22% of the non - ferrous metal industry [7] - **Technological Innovation**: China has achieved import substitution for copper tubes, copper plates, and copper foils. Ultra - thin copper foils with a length of over 20,000 meters have been produced, and energy consumption has been continuously optimized [7] "15th Five - Year Plan" Strategic Plan - **Overall Goals**: Build a copper industry powerhouse in two steps. From 2025 - 2030, focus on independent innovation, resource security, green and low - carbon development, and digitalization. From 2030 - 2035, achieve technological self - reliance, resource control, green production, smart factories, global layout, and talent cultivation [5] - **Key Goals**: Promote work in five major areas: scientific and technological research, resource security, green and low - carbon development, smart factory construction, and high - end talent deployment [10] Current Situation of the Copper Mine Industry and Corporate Green Transformation Global and Chinese Copper Mine Industry Patterns - **Global Pattern**: Global copper resources are concentrated in countries such as Chile and Peru. In 2024, global production was 2.298 billion tons, consumption was 2.35 billion tons, and the new energy sector accounted for 27% of consumption [11][12] - **Chinese Situation**: China's copper resource reserves are 41 million tons, accounting for 4.2% of the global total, with a static guarantee period of 24 years. In 2024, production was 1.364 billion tons (49.9% of the global total), and consumption accounted for 58% of the global total, with a high degree of external dependence [11][15] Challenges in the Development of the Copper Industry - **High Copper Prices Suppress Downstream Demand**: After the National Day in 2025, copper prices rose to nearly 89,000 yuan/ton. For every 10,000 - yuan increase in copper prices, the cable industry's cost increases by 12%, and the new energy vehicle procurement cost increases by 8%. In the first half of 2025, domestic copper processing enterprises' orders decreased by 7.3% year - on - year [16] - **Accelerated Copper - Aluminum Substitution**: When the copper - aluminum price ratio exceeds 4, downstream enterprises tend to use aluminum to replace copper. The aluminum industry association has conducted special research on "replacing copper with aluminum" [16] - **Pressure on Smelting Enterprise Profits**: In 2025, copper processing fees were negative, about - 40 US dollars/ton. Domestic smelting enterprises mainly rely on the profits of by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver to subsidize production [17] Round - Table Discussion: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities Mine Copper Supply Shows "Short - Term Growth, Long - Term Bottlenecks" - Global copper demand is growing structurally, driven by new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence. It is predicted that in 2035, the global copper industry demand will reach 42 million tons, with a shortage of 4.5 million tons of mine copper [20] There are Delivery Arbitrage Opportunities When the LME - COMEX Copper Price Difference Reaches a Maximum of 2,500 US Dollars - The Trump administration's tariff policies have changed the global copper trade pattern, widening the LME - COMEX copper price difference. Trade enterprises can profit from cross - market arbitrage, but they also face challenges such as high market access thresholds and policy risks [22] The Low TC/RC is Corely Due to Supply - Demand Mismatch and Insufficient Industry Collaboration - The TC/RC has deteriorated significantly. In 2025, it dropped from 80 US dollars/ton in 2024 to 21.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 75%. The core reasons are supply - demand mismatch and insufficient industry collaboration [25] 2025 Global Copper Industry Chain Supply - Demand Pattern and Price Forecast - The US manufacturing reshoring and the Trump administration's tariff policies have affected the copper market. The supply - demand pattern of the copper industry chain is tense, and it is predicted that the copper price will rise to about 12,000 US dollars/ton in 2026 [28][29]