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建信期货铜期货日报-20250626
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 05:09
Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The short - term copper price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to low inventory support and a warming macro - environment. The market should pay attention to the Shanghai copper's test of the previous high pressure level [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper slightly rose to 78,810, with total positions increasing by 11,458 lots. The 07 - 08 spread on the board narrowed to 130, and the spot premium dropped 10 to 30. Downstream demand for high - priced copper was limited during the off - season [11] - LME market spreads also narrowed, with the 0 - 3 spread narrowing to $150/ton. The shortage of spot goods slightly eased, but LME inventory continued to decline by 1,200 to 93,475 tons. The high BACK structure caused by low LME inventory is difficult to ease in the short term [11] - The COMEX - LME spread widened to $1,214/ton. The high C - L premium due to the delayed US tariff implementation led to the continuous transfer of global inventory to COMEX. SHFE and LME will face continuous de - stocking pressure [11] - The macro - environment has improved. The sharp rise in A - shares has driven the market's bullish sentiment to spread to the commodity market, supporting the prices of Shanghai and London copper [11] 3.2. Industry News - A new preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona shows an initial cost of $1.24 billion and a post - tax net present value (NPV) of $1.4 billion. The underground mine can produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode per year in the first 15 years of its 23 - year lifespan. At a base price of $4.25 per pound, the internal rate of return (IRR) is 20%. At the current Comex high - grade copper price of $4.83 per pound, the NPV rises to $1.9 billion and the IRR rises to 24% [12] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper produced by Houma Beitong Copper Industry Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 200,000 tons. It also cancelled the registration qualification of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper of Shanxi Beifang Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s Houma Smelter [12] - The case of Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. and Ajlan Brothers Mining Company's new joint venture entered the publicity period (June 16 - 25, 2025). The joint venture will engage in exploration, potential mining, operation, management, development, production, and sales of minerals in Saudi Arabia [13] - An employee of First Quantum's Trident died in a dump truck accident at Sentinel. The company will cooperate fully with the investigation, and operations in the accident area have been temporarily suspended [13]