11月26日，以"变局·飞跃"为主题的中国银河证券2026年度投资策略报告会在北京举办。会议汇聚了众 多专家学者、行业领袖与投资界人士，共同展望宏观经济走势，把脉产业变革机遇，探寻未来投资脉 络。 多名与会分析师表示，在"大重构、大变革"的时代背景下，中国经济展现出强劲韧性，新质生产力加速 成长，资本市场正迎来结构性机遇。 在薛军看来，我国资本市场也展现出强大韧性。今年以来，A股市场整体稳中向好，上证指数涨幅超过 15%。我国股市的稳定机制已从"危机应对"转向"主动治理"，通过政策协同、制度改革与应急响应的系 统推进，市场内在稳定性显著增强，为服务实体经济筑牢基础。 为构建新发展格局注入金融动能 回顾中国银河证券自身的发展，薛军介绍，作为根植资本市场二十五载的头部券商，公司服务客户超 1800万，托管资产超5万亿元，已发展成为国内分支机构最多、亚洲网络布局最广的投资银行之一。截 至2025年三季度，公司ROE、净利润、营业收入等核心指标均稳居行业前列。 中国银河证券总裁薛军在致辞中表示，当前世界正处在一个"大重构、大变革"的时代。百年变局加速演 进，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破，海外不确定性因素复杂多变。 ...

Core Insights - The conference themed "Change and Leap" highlighted the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst global restructuring and transformation, with a focus on structural opportunities in the capital market [1][2] - China Galaxy Securities aims to inject financial momentum into the new development pattern, emphasizing the importance of capital markets in the upcoming five years [2][3] Economic Outlook - The chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, Zhang Jun, introduced the "ReNew" framework, predicting a convergence of growth rates between emerging and developed markets, and a rebalancing of the US and Chinese economies [3][4] - Zhang emphasized the importance of new supply-side reforms in 2026, focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, eliminating outdated production capacity, and promoting AI and digital economy development [3][4] Policy and Market Predictions - The macro chief analyst, Zhang Di, forecasted a stable policy environment in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and special government bonds between 1.3 trillion and 1.5 trillion yuan to support consumption [4] - Zhang also predicted a mild re-inflation with CPI growth around 0.4% and a recovery in PPI, which would positively impact corporate profits and household income expectations [4] Investment Strategy - The strategy chief analyst, Yang Chao, suggested that the A-share market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on new quality productivity and manufacturing sector optimization [5][6] - Yang recommended two main investment lines: focusing on key areas such as AI, quantum technology, and new energy, and capitalizing on domestic consumption policies [5][6] Technology Trends - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities discussed the future of the computer industry, predicting a shift towards AI applications and increased domestic computing power penetration [6] - The communication sector is expected to benefit from AI computing power, with a focus on operational efficiency and advancements in quantum technology [6]