作者|中国企业资本联盟中国区首席经济学家柏文喜 一、财政货币政策的明确基调 12月10—11日召开的中央经济工作会议，往往是资本市场判断接下来政策导向的核心风向标。本次会议 明确"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"，在宏观政策取向上实现两大关键升级：财政政策由"积极"升级为"更 加积极"，货币政策由"稳健"升级为"适度宽松"，这是2011年以来首次同步松动两大总需求管理闸门。 会议同时强调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重 要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融 机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本 稳定。 二、政策逻辑解码：为何聚焦"财政更积极和货币更宽松" （一）现实约束：三大硬指标凸显政策发力必要性 需求缺口持续存在：2025年前10个月，社零两年复合增速为4.1%，低于疫情前年均8%的"潜在中枢"； 地产销售面积累计同比下降15%，拖累建筑及装潢类消费下降9%；核心CPI连续14个月低于1%，剔除 猪价扰动后仍在0.5%以下，反映居民边际支出倾向低于收入增速，与会 ...

Core Insights - The current stability mechanism of China's capital market has shifted from "crisis response" to "proactive governance," significantly enhancing the market's inherent stability [1] - The 2026 economic outlook is framed around the theme of "ReNew," highlighting the coexistence of global "new patterns and cycles" with domestic "new blueprints and new productive forces" [1][2] Group 1: Economic Challenges and Trends - The economic landscape is characterized by three layers of challenges: long-term "3D challenges" (aging population, debt crisis, de-globalization), mid-term "spiral downward" mechanisms, and recent "three inflection points" (U.S. political shift, China's economic transformation, global technological leap) [2] - Global economic growth is expected to continue a slight decline, but the growth gap between developed economies and emerging markets is predicted to narrow [2] - By 2026, Asia's economic scale is projected to surpass that of North America and Europe for the first time, indicating a profound shift in the global economic landscape [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - China must seize opportunities presented by "creative destruction," with the government playing dual roles as "investor" and "insurer" to stimulate innovation and buffer transformation shocks [3] - The future of China's economy is summarized by "three news" (new blueprint, new starting point, new productive forces) and "three rebalances" (external vs. internal demand, supply vs. demand, nominal vs. real variables) [3] - The capital market is undergoing a paradigm shift from "cyclical fluctuations" to "structural changes," necessitating a comprehensive update of traditional analytical frameworks [4] Group 3: Asset Pricing and Market Dynamics - The traditional correlation between asset prices and economic fundamentals is being restructured, with economic drivers shifting from traditional inputs to innovation-driven growth [4] - The capital market in 2026 is expected to exhibit "economic rebalancing and moderate re-inflation," with fiscal policy maintaining necessary spending intensity and monetary policy remaining prudent [4] - Investors are advised to focus on the changes in "three prices": RMB exchange rate, Sino-U.S. interest rate differentials, and stock-bond relative prices, as these will influence asset performance [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - In the AI sector, a shift from "model-driven" to "application-driven" development is anticipated, with 2026 being a critical year for AI applications [5] - The communication industry is expected to upgrade due to AI computing power demands, with significant growth in AI capital expenditures by cloud vendors [5] - The pharmaceutical sector is undergoing a "hard technology" transformation, with a focus on innovative drug companies and medical device firms that possess genuine innovation capabilities [6] - The consumer market is evolving into a "dual-driven" new pattern, with continuous innovation in technology consumption and emerging new consumption scenarios [6]

Core Insights - The conference themed "Change and Leap" highlighted the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst global restructuring and transformation, with a focus on structural opportunities in the capital market [1][2] - China Galaxy Securities aims to inject financial momentum into the new development pattern, emphasizing the importance of capital markets in the upcoming five years [2][3] Economic Outlook - The chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, Zhang Jun, introduced the "ReNew" framework, predicting a convergence of growth rates between emerging and developed markets, and a rebalancing of the US and Chinese economies [3][4] - Zhang emphasized the importance of new supply-side reforms in 2026, focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, eliminating outdated production capacity, and promoting AI and digital economy development [3][4] Policy and Market Predictions - The macro chief analyst, Zhang Di, forecasted a stable policy environment in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and special government bonds between 1.3 trillion and 1.5 trillion yuan to support consumption [4] - Zhang also predicted a mild re-inflation with CPI growth around 0.4% and a recovery in PPI, which would positively impact corporate profits and household income expectations [4] Investment Strategy - The strategy chief analyst, Yang Chao, suggested that the A-share market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on new quality productivity and manufacturing sector optimization [5][6] - Yang recommended two main investment lines: focusing on key areas such as AI, quantum technology, and new energy, and capitalizing on domestic consumption policies [5][6] Technology Trends - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities discussed the future of the computer industry, predicting a shift towards AI applications and increased domestic computing power penetration [6] - The communication sector is expected to benefit from AI computing power, with a focus on operational efficiency and advancements in quantum technology [6]

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth projected at 4.8%[22] - The retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to grow by 4.7%, supported by policies encouraging durable goods consumption[22] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to increase by 2.4%, with manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate[22] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to rise by 0.4%, while PPI is projected to decline by 1.1%[22] - The combination of internal demand stimulation and anti-involution policies is expected to drive a mild recovery in prices[22] Policy Environment - Fiscal policy will maintain continuity and stability, with a deficit rate of 4% and special bonds totaling CNY 1.3 trillion planned[22] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with interest rates projected to decrease by 10-20 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[22] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively for 2026, with expectations of excess returns due to a gradual bottoming of housing prices and steady currency appreciation[24] - The internal conditions are improving, with a focus on counter-cyclical policies and a stable liquidity environment[24] Global Context - The U.S. is expected to experience a shift in focus towards domestic economic growth, potentially benefiting China's export environment[24] - Global trade demand is projected to remain stable, with China's manufacturing advantages continuing to manifest[22]

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company achieved a revenue of 8.419 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 738 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [17][18] - For the second quarter of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.084 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52% [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The overall sales volume of compound fertilizers increased by 12.38% year-on-year in H1 2024, with ordinary compound fertilizers up 10.16% and new-type compound fertilizers up 19.45% [18] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 16.06%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.79%, up 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [18] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company’s new-type fertilizer sales revenue reached 2.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.94%, accounting for 30.43% of the overall sales volume and 35.41% of the sales revenue of compound fertilizers [18] - The company has established a competitive advantage through an integrated industrial chain, with various production capacities including 9.83 million tons/year of high-concentration phosphate fertilizers [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on enhancing its integrated industrial chain advantages and expanding upstream phosphate mine layouts to strengthen its market position [19] - The company aims to achieve net profit growth targets of 30%, 65%, and 100% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a strong commitment to growth [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in the recovery of the compound fertilizer industry and the company's ability to restore volume and profit margins [17][19] - The management highlighted the importance of adapting to changes in the real estate market and consumer behavior as key factors influencing future performance [8][19] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan, with performance targets set to double over three years, indicating a strong commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value [14][15] - The company plans to repurchase 4-8 million shares for the incentive plan, which represents 0.37%-0.75% of the total share capital [14] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What are the expected profit targets for the next three years? - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.25 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [15] Question: How does the company plan to enhance its competitive advantage? - The company plans to enhance its competitive advantage through integrated production capabilities and expanding its phosphate mining operations, which will support its fertilizer production [19]