25Q4 业绩扭亏，多领域持续发力 海目星(688559) 25 年业绩预告点评 公司 25 年业绩整体承压，25Q4 单季度扭亏，盈利拐点已至。公司在手订单充足、 非锂电领域持续拓展，未来业绩有望改善。 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 88.22 | | 毛冠锦(分析师) | 021-23183821 | maoguanjin@gtht.com | S0880525040081 | | | 投资要点： 本报告导读： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 is under pressure, but it is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, indicating a potential inflection point. The company has a sufficient order backlog and is expanding in non-lithium sectors, which may lead to improved performance in the future [2][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,805 million, with a decrease to 4,525 million in 2024, followed by a further decline to 4,372 million in 2025. However, revenue is expected to rebound to 6,012 million in 2026 and reach 7,482 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37.5% and 24.4% respectively [4][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 322 million in 2023, but it is expected to decline to -163 million in 2024 and -857 million in 2025. A recovery is anticipated in 2026 with a net profit of 483 million and further growth to 803 million in 2027 [4][13] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.30 in 2023, dropping to -0.66 in 2024 and -3.46 in 2025, before recovering to 1.95 in 2026 and 3.24 in 2027 [4][13] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.7% in 2023, turning negative at -5.1% in 2024 and -36.5% in 2025, but recovering to 17.1% in 2026 and 22.1% in 2027 [4][13] Order and Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with approximately 44.21 billion in new orders (including tax) in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. As of June 30, 2025, the order backlog stands at about 100.85 billion (including tax), up 46% year-on-year [12][13] - The decline in profitability in 2025 is attributed to overcapacity in the lithium and photovoltaic industries, leading to sustained price pressure on products. Additionally, increased costs and asset impairment losses have negatively impacted profits [12][13] Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding into multiple sectors, including: 1. In the photovoltaic sector, it is collaborating with leading manufacturers to develop perovskite tandem batteries, which are expected to enhance efficiency and be used in low-orbit satellites and space computing power generation [12] 2. In the solid-state battery sector, the company is the first in the industry to pursue dual technology routes and has secured commercial production orders for solid-state battery equipment [12] 3. In other areas, the company has received orders for laser drilling equipment in HDI and PCB sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI computing power [12]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][15] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the domestic power lithium battery sector as leading manufacturers accelerate expansion [10] - The demand for laser assembly equipment is anticipated to increase significantly due to the adoption of steel shell packaging in solid-state batteries [11] - The company has been actively expanding into high-margin non-lithium battery orders, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [13] - The platform technology is being developed to create new growth avenues in large steel shell batteries and the semiconductor industry [14] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 2.9 billion, 4.5 billion, and 6.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 13, and 10 [15] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.512 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 286.29 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.24% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.85 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 20.62 based on the current price [1] - For 2024, total revenue is expected to decline to 3.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.33% year-on-year, with a net profit of 165.53 million yuan, down 42.18% [8]