2025年12月30日，晶科能源披露接待调研公告，公司于12月30日接待淡水泉资管、汇添富基金、交银施 罗德基金、永赢基金、华商基金、大成基金等22家机构调研。 调研情况显示，公司电池效率通过整合新型钝化接触技术、超低光学寄生吸收技术、新型金属化方案等 多项自主研发核心技术创新，提升至27．79％新高，夯实TOPCon技术主流地位，其与钙钛矿叠层电池 转化效率达34．76％，为空间能源应用奠定基础。针对白银等大宗商品涨价，公司推进银包铜等贱金属 技术研发，预计明年规模放量以形成成本领先优势，并通过套期保值应对价格波动。 受宏观环境影响，以白银为代表的贵金属短期价格波动较大。白银占组件整体成本上升，公司根据日常 生产经营的需要进行必要的套期保值，并持续推动贱金属的研发和导入，如银包铜浆料方案等，有望在 一定程度上抵消原材料价格上涨的影响。公司目前贱金属方案预计明年实现规模放量，在行业中有望形 成显著成本领先优势。 3．如何看待太空算力中光伏市场空间潜力和技术路线展望？ 业内分析指出，未来低轨通信卫星、轨道式太阳能电站及地外数据中心等空间能源应用场景，均需依托 超高效率、轻质化的光伏技术。第三方研究机构表示，钙钛 ...

abc 2025 年 12 月 24 日 Global Research 捷佳伟创 光伏板块低迷叠加半导体处于起步阶段，维持 中性 短期内尚无实质性正向催化落地，维持中性评级 我们下调2025-27年EPS预测9%-52%，以此体现光伏设备板块的承压（我 们认为短期内半导体设备很难抵消光伏设备板块的下滑）。年初迄今捷佳伟 创的股价已回升逾50%，我们认为股价已反映了：1）潜在的订单下滑 和TOPCon市场竞争加剧；2) 公司在积极布局新一代光伏电池技术（主要是 钙钛矿叠层电池）和半导体设备，中长期看可望带来增量订单。公司当前股 价对应21.6x 2026E PE，比历史均值低0.2SD，我们认为当前估值合理，我 们维持捷佳伟创的中性评级，因为市场已大致了解产能过剩的问题，但是拐 点可见度较低。 光伏设备短期仍面临显著压力... 估值: 目标价自73.00元上调至95.70元 我们下调2025-27年EPS预测，但我们将目标价自73.00元上调31%至95.70 元，主要由于1）将目标估值比率上调至22x 2026E，此前为10x 2024E（我 们预测2026E EPS降47% vs. 我们此前预测2024 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that perovskite tandem batteries are the inevitable choice for the next phase of photovoltaics due to their superior efficiency compared to traditional silicon-based solutions [7][8] - The efficiency ceiling for tandem batteries is projected to be 44%, with expected mass production efficiency exceeding 35% in the long term [8] - Major manufacturers in the perovskite sector have successfully transitioned to large-scale production, with significant efficiency improvements observed in large-area perovskite batteries [8][9] Industry Overview - The report discusses the limitations of single-material solar cells in efficiently utilizing the entire solar spectrum, which tandem batteries aim to address [8] - The commercial viability of perovskite tandem components is highlighted, with a significant price-performance advantage over traditional silicon components, projected to yield a premium of 1.28 CNY/W while maintaining a cost of only 1.2 CNY/W [8] - The anticipated efficiency of tandem components is expected to reach 28% by 2026, with a breakthrough of over 30% deemed inevitable [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the perovskite industry has seen a surge in production capacity, with nearly 10 companies operating 100MW lines as of October 2025, and several major players like BOE and CATL investing in GW-level production lines [9] - The compatibility of perovskite tandem technology with existing silicon production capabilities is expected to facilitate further expansion in the industry [9] - Key materials and equipment suppliers are identified, including TCO glass manufacturers like Jinjing Technology and Yaopi Glass, and equipment providers such as Jiejia Weichuang and Jing Shan Light Machinery [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in semiconductor equipment, with a significant advantage in perovskite technology [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 7.6 billion, 8.8 billion, and 11.0 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39, 34, and 27 times [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8,089 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 94.99%. However, a decline of 23.09% is expected in 2025 [1][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 913.90 million RMB, with a growth of 6.03%. A decrease of 17.39% is anticipated in 2025 [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 3.27 RMB, expected to drop to 2.74 RMB in 2025 before rising to 3.93 RMB by 2027 [1][8] Market Position and Product Development - The company has made significant advancements in semiconductor wafer etching and advanced packaging equipment, achieving key breakthroughs with differentiated technology [7] - The company has successfully launched several core devices in the semiconductor packaging sector and has a leading market share in laser grooving equipment [7] - The company is expanding its product matrix in 2024, introducing new equipment such as temporary bonding machines and laser debonding machines [7] - The company is also rapidly advancing in perovskite technology, adding a full suite of equipment necessary for perovskite tandem solar cells [7]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 5.68 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -420 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.02 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.4% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -160 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 38% [1] - The company's overseas sales proportion increased significantly from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% in 2025, with overseas gross margin at 4.5%, a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The company is continuously reducing costs and increasing efficiency through technologies such as half-cell edge passivation and ultra-fine grid, with the xBC battery conversion efficiency improving by 1-1.5 percentage points compared to mainstream N-type batteries [2] - The laboratory efficiency of the perovskite tandem battery developed in collaboration with external institutions reached 32.08% [2] Group 3 - The company revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 10.0 billion, 12.03 billion, and 14.67 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [3] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are -510 million, 620 million, and 1.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20 and 12 times for 2026-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the competitive industry landscape [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price compared to the benchmark index [6][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.68 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -420 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [3]. - The overseas sales proportion has significantly increased from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% in 2025, with overseas gross margins at 4.5%, up by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is actively pursuing N-type technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency, with laboratory efficiency of perovskite tandem batteries reaching 32.08% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 10.0 billion, 12.03 billion, and 14.67 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at -510 million, 620 million, and 1.05 billion yuan [6][11]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow significantly from 607.16 million yuan in 2025 to 2.47 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [11][12]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 are 20 and 12 times respectively, reflecting an anticipated improvement in earnings [6].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Zhongrun Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. (Zhongrun) is advancing its IPO process in Hong Kong, having submitted its application twice, with a focus on specialized photovoltaic cell manufacturing and vertical expansion into module production [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongrun is the world's largest specialized manufacturer of photovoltaic cells, with a significant market share of 18.3% among specialized manufacturers and 14.6% among all manufacturers, based on a projected shipment of 34.5GW in 2024 [1]. - The company has two main business lines: photovoltaic cells and modules, with cell revenue accounting for 81.1% of total revenue in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Zhongrun's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected at 12.517 billion, 20.838 billion, and 11.320 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 834 million, 1.681 billion, and a loss of 1.363 billion RMB [1]. - In the first half of 2025, Zhongrun reported revenue of 7.465 billion RMB, a 26.46% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.204 billion RMB, reversing previous losses [1][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price declines, with prices for mainstream products dropping by 60% to 90% compared to 2020 highs, leading to a competitive environment characterized by aggressive pricing strategies [7][9]. - Zhongrun's average selling price for photovoltaic cells decreased from 0.9945 RMB/W in 2022 to 0.3202 RMB/W in 2024, reflecting the industry's pricing pressures [8]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Zhongrun is capitalizing on the shift from P-type to N-type photovoltaic cells, with N-type cell revenue growing from 0% in 2022 to 48.1% in 2024, driven by advancements in technology [3][4]. - The company is focusing on R&D for advanced technologies such as HJT, TOPCon, and perovskite cells, which are critical for maintaining competitive advantages and ensuring long-term growth [10]. Group 5: International Expansion - Zhongrun has established a global presence, with over 15GW of monocrystalline cell capacity and 3GW of module capacity overseas, serving customers in more than 32 countries [5]. - In 2024, 67.1% of Zhongrun's revenue came from mainland China, while 32.9% was generated from international markets, indicating successful international expansion efforts [6].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 837 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -71.217 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company successfully completed a board restructuring and management team adjustment, enhancing its decision-making mechanism [1] - The company has made significant improvements in its fundamentals, effectively mitigating core risks and achieving notable results in internal control governance [1] Group 2 - The special cable business has a diverse product matrix, including flame-retardant soft cables, ship cables, and railway signal cables, catering to specialized needs in key sectors [1] - The photovoltaic business focuses on the research, production, and sales of high-efficiency monocrystalline solar cells and large-size modules, implementing an integrated development strategy [1] - The company has established a comprehensive energy system solution by combining photovoltaic manufacturing with energy storage system services [1] Group 3 - The company adheres to a "mass production of one generation, reserve of another" strategy in its R&D approach, providing solid technical support for future industrial upgrades [2] - The company holds 35 patents related to TOPCon batteries and modules, achieving mass production of the entire series [2] - The company has laid out 29 patents in next-generation technologies such as BC, HJT, and perovskite stacked batteries, indicating a rich reserve of forward-looking technologies [2]

Core Insights - The SNEC International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Exhibition in Shanghai is viewed as a key observation point for the photovoltaic industry amidst significant losses in 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - Despite the industry's downturn, the exhibition attracted over 3,600 exhibitors from nearly 100 countries, with an expected attendance of over 500,000 [1] Industry Trends - The competition between TOPCon and BC technologies remains intense, with various new products showcased at the exhibition [2] - JinkoSolar presented the TigerNeo3.0 series with a power output of 670W and a conversion efficiency of 24.8% [2] - LONGi Green Energy's Hi-MO 9 module achieved a conversion efficiency of 27% and a power output of 670W, reflecting a year of innovation [3] Technological Advancements - The industry is shifting focus towards perovskite technology, with Trina Solar planning to establish a pilot production line for perovskite cells, aiming for a 4% efficiency increase over traditional silicon cells [4] - GCL-Poly Energy showcased perovskite modules with a theoretical efficiency of 33% for single-junction and over 43% for tandem cells [5] Business Diversification - Companies are increasingly diversifying their business models, moving from traditional manufacturing to comprehensive energy solutions [6] - Trina Solar is transitioning to become a leader in smart energy solutions, expanding into areas like green transportation and zero-carbon parks [6] - GCL-Poly is enhancing its silane gas production capabilities, which are crucial for silicon production, and is exploring new applications in the energy materials sector [7] AI Integration - The integration of AI in the energy sector is growing, with companies like Forhan Intelligent showcasing platforms that enhance energy management and optimize revenue [8] - Trina Solar's GainCube AI solution aims to increase returns by 5%-10% through smarter energy management strategies [9] - JA Solar is collaborating with Ant Group to expand virtual power plant applications, highlighting the trend towards AI-driven energy solutions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to unspecified investors, which may dilute immediate returns but includes measures to compensate for this dilution [1][2][3] Financial Impact Analysis - The issuance of convertible bonds may lead to a situation where profit growth in the year of issuance is lower than the expansion of the share capital, resulting in a dilution of earnings per share [1][2] - The estimated net profit for the company in 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 926.06 million yuan and 837.10 million yuan respectively, with three scenarios for growth rates: flat, 10% increase, and 20% increase [2][3] - Under different performance growth scenarios, the diluted earnings per share will vary, with a potential decrease in basic earnings per share from 3.33 yuan to 3.04 yuan in the worst-case scenario [3][4] Use of Proceeds - The funds raised from the bond issuance will be used for the industrialization of perovskite tandem solar cell equipment, aligning with the company's strategic direction and enhancing its competitive edge [6][8] - The company has a strong foundation in high-end equipment manufacturing and aims to leverage its existing technology and market position to capture a share of the growing perovskite solar cell market [7][8] Market Position and R&D - The company has established a robust R&D team with 1,552 personnel across various technical fields, enhancing its capability to innovate and develop new products [8][9] - The company has developed several patents related to perovskite-silicon tandem cells and has invested in advanced testing facilities to support its R&D efforts [9][10] Commitment to Shareholder Returns - The company has outlined measures to mitigate the dilution of immediate returns, including enhancing operational efficiency and improving profit distribution mechanisms [11][12] - The controlling shareholders and management have made commitments to uphold the interests of the company and its investors, ensuring that the measures to compensate for diluted returns are effectively implemented [13][14]