证券研究报告 商业航天规模化在即， 太空光伏打开成长空间 ——商业航天&太空光伏系列深度（一） 行业投资评级：强于大市|维持 中邮证券研究所 电新团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-24 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 卫星需求拉动太空光伏市场空间：卫星互联网应用场景打开+战略布局+太空算力，低轨卫星需求将 快速提升。太空光伏是卫星能源供应唯一供给方案，受益于卫星数量+单星功率提升。 太阳翼向柔性演进：单星功率提升要求太阳翼向轻量化、柔性化发展。 技术路线迭代带来新机遇：砷化镓-HJT-钙钛矿叠层演进。（1）砷化镓为目前主流技术路线，可靠性 高但成本高昂。（2）p-HJT方案依托于成熟的晶硅产业，较砷化镓方案大幅降本，且异质结作为向钙钛 矿叠层方案发展的基础，预计在短中期有较大发展空间。（3）钙钛矿叠层方案目前仍处于起步研究阶段， 存在光照或高温环境下稳定性不足、寿命短等问题亟待突破，随技术成熟产能增加叠加降本，预计中长期 将有较大发展空间。 投资建议：建议关注迈为股份、东方日升、钧达股份。 风险提示：商业火箭发射降本、卫星发射频次不及预期，技术迭代、产业落地不及预期，国际技术标准 与规则竞争 ...

格隆汇1月29日丨苏州固锝(002079.SZ)近日接受特定对象调研时表示，目前，公司已经成功研发钙钛矿 叠层电池超低温银浆，在客户端测试验证优异，产品性能指标处于行业先进水平。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 is under pressure, but it is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, indicating a potential inflection point. The company has a sufficient order backlog and is expanding in non-lithium sectors, which may lead to improved performance in the future [2][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,805 million, with a decrease to 4,525 million in 2024, followed by a further decline to 4,372 million in 2025. However, revenue is expected to rebound to 6,012 million in 2026 and reach 7,482 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37.5% and 24.4% respectively [4][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 322 million in 2023, but it is expected to decline to -163 million in 2024 and -857 million in 2025. A recovery is anticipated in 2026 with a net profit of 483 million and further growth to 803 million in 2027 [4][13] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.30 in 2023, dropping to -0.66 in 2024 and -3.46 in 2025, before recovering to 1.95 in 2026 and 3.24 in 2027 [4][13] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.7% in 2023, turning negative at -5.1% in 2024 and -36.5% in 2025, but recovering to 17.1% in 2026 and 22.1% in 2027 [4][13] Order and Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with approximately 44.21 billion in new orders (including tax) in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. As of June 30, 2025, the order backlog stands at about 100.85 billion (including tax), up 46% year-on-year [12][13] - The decline in profitability in 2025 is attributed to overcapacity in the lithium and photovoltaic industries, leading to sustained price pressure on products. Additionally, increased costs and asset impairment losses have negatively impacted profits [12][13] Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding into multiple sectors, including: 1. In the photovoltaic sector, it is collaborating with leading manufacturers to develop perovskite tandem batteries, which are expected to enhance efficiency and be used in low-orbit satellites and space computing power generation [12] 2. In the solid-state battery sector, the company is the first in the industry to pursue dual technology routes and has secured commercial production orders for solid-state battery equipment [12] 3. In other areas, the company has received orders for laser drilling equipment in HDI and PCB sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI computing power [12]

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar has achieved a record battery efficiency of 27.79%, solidifying its position in the TOPCon technology mainstream and paving the way for future advancements in solar energy applications, particularly in space [1][2]. Group 1: Battery Efficiency and Technology Innovations - The company has integrated multiple core technological innovations, including new passivated contact technology and ultra-low optical parasitic absorption technology, to reach a new high in battery efficiency [2]. - The conversion efficiency of the perovskite tandem battery has reached 34.76%, establishing a strong foundation for space energy applications [4]. Group 2: Commodity Price Impact and Cost Reduction Strategies - The recent rise in silver and other commodity prices has prompted the company to accelerate the development of silver-coated copper technology, which is expected to provide a significant cost advantage in the industry [3]. - The company is implementing hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations while pushing for the adoption of cheaper metal solutions [3]. Group 3: Market Demand and Pricing Dynamics - Domestic demand remains resilient, with approximately 60-70GW of large-scale projects not subject to mechanism pricing, supported by policies for green electricity direct connection [8]. - The company has adjusted its component pricing to account for raw material price increases, with short-term price stabilization expected and a long-term outlook for improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability recovery [5]. Group 4: High-Power Product Performance - The company has begun delivering high-power products (640W and above), achieving a premium of 1-2 cents per watt compared to non-upgraded products [6]. - With the anticipated release of high-power production capacity in the first half of next year, the company expects that high-power product shipments will account for no less than 60% of total shipments by 2026 [7].

Summary of the Conference Call for Jiejia Weichuang Company Overview - **Company**: Jiejia Weichuang (捷佳伟创) - **Industry**: Photovoltaic Equipment and Semiconductor Equipment - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb 32.7 billion / US$ 4.66 billion - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb 93.98 - **12-Month Target Price**: Rmb 95.70, up from Rmb 73.00 Key Points Industry and Market Conditions - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a downturn, compounded by oversupply and intensified competition in the TOPCon battery technology market [1][2] - The company’s contract liabilities and inventory of goods sent out have decreased by 48% and 57% year-on-year, indicating a decline in new orders [2][13] - Revenue from photovoltaic equipment is projected to drop by 45% in 2026 due to these market pressures [2][9] Financial Performance and Forecasts - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 9%-52% to reflect the challenges in the photovoltaic equipment sector [1][32] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards by 19%-57% [26][32] - The company’s stock is currently valued at 21.6x 2026E PE, which is below historical averages [1][17] Semiconductor Equipment Potential - The semiconductor equipment segment is still small but has potential for growth due to synergies with photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [3][10] - The semiconductor equipment index has risen over 90% year-to-date, indicating market optimism despite the challenges in the photovoltaic sector [3][16] Valuation Adjustments - Target price has been raised by 31% to Rmb 95.70, based on an increased valuation ratio of 22x 2026E, up from 10x 2024E [4][32] - The new target price reflects a more conservative approach given the current low point in profitability [32] Risks and Outlook - The company maintains a neutral rating due to balanced risks; potential upside from semiconductor orders could be offset by continued pressure in the photovoltaic sector [1][32] - The market is expected to remain cautious regarding the photovoltaic sector until 2026-2027, when a recovery may begin with the maturation of new technologies like perovskite cells [9][10] Additional Financial Metrics - Projected net profit for 2025 is Rmb 2.85 billion, down from previous estimates of Rmb 3.16 billion [27][28] - Operating cash flow is expected to be significantly negative in 2026, indicating potential liquidity challenges [27] Conclusion - Jiejia Weichuang is navigating a challenging environment in the photovoltaic equipment sector while exploring growth opportunities in semiconductor equipment. The adjustments in financial forecasts and target pricing reflect a cautious but strategic outlook amidst market volatility.

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that perovskite tandem batteries are the inevitable choice for the next phase of photovoltaics due to their superior efficiency compared to traditional silicon-based solutions [7][8] - The efficiency ceiling for tandem batteries is projected to be 44%, with expected mass production efficiency exceeding 35% in the long term [8] - Major manufacturers in the perovskite sector have successfully transitioned to large-scale production, with significant efficiency improvements observed in large-area perovskite batteries [8][9] Industry Overview - The report discusses the limitations of single-material solar cells in efficiently utilizing the entire solar spectrum, which tandem batteries aim to address [8] - The commercial viability of perovskite tandem components is highlighted, with a significant price-performance advantage over traditional silicon components, projected to yield a premium of 1.28 CNY/W while maintaining a cost of only 1.2 CNY/W [8] - The anticipated efficiency of tandem components is expected to reach 28% by 2026, with a breakthrough of over 30% deemed inevitable [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the perovskite industry has seen a surge in production capacity, with nearly 10 companies operating 100MW lines as of October 2025, and several major players like BOE and CATL investing in GW-level production lines [9] - The compatibility of perovskite tandem technology with existing silicon production capabilities is expected to facilitate further expansion in the industry [9] - Key materials and equipment suppliers are identified, including TCO glass manufacturers like Jinjing Technology and Yaopi Glass, and equipment providers such as Jiejia Weichuang and Jing Shan Light Machinery [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in semiconductor equipment, with a significant advantage in perovskite technology [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 7.6 billion, 8.8 billion, and 11.0 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39, 34, and 27 times [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8,089 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 94.99%. However, a decline of 23.09% is expected in 2025 [1][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 913.90 million RMB, with a growth of 6.03%. A decrease of 17.39% is anticipated in 2025 [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 3.27 RMB, expected to drop to 2.74 RMB in 2025 before rising to 3.93 RMB by 2027 [1][8] Market Position and Product Development - The company has made significant advancements in semiconductor wafer etching and advanced packaging equipment, achieving key breakthroughs with differentiated technology [7] - The company has successfully launched several core devices in the semiconductor packaging sector and has a leading market share in laser grooving equipment [7] - The company is expanding its product matrix in 2024, introducing new equipment such as temporary bonding machines and laser debonding machines [7] - The company is also rapidly advancing in perovskite technology, adding a full suite of equipment necessary for perovskite tandem solar cells [7]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 5.68 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -420 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.02 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.4% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -160 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 38% [1] - The company's overseas sales proportion increased significantly from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% in 2025, with overseas gross margin at 4.5%, a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The company is continuously reducing costs and increasing efficiency through technologies such as half-cell edge passivation and ultra-fine grid, with the xBC battery conversion efficiency improving by 1-1.5 percentage points compared to mainstream N-type batteries [2] - The laboratory efficiency of the perovskite tandem battery developed in collaboration with external institutions reached 32.08% [2] Group 3 - The company revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 10.0 billion, 12.03 billion, and 14.67 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [3] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are -510 million, 620 million, and 1.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20 and 12 times for 2026-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the competitive industry landscape [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price compared to the benchmark index [6][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.68 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -420 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [3]. - The overseas sales proportion has significantly increased from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% in 2025, with overseas gross margins at 4.5%, up by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is actively pursuing N-type technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency, with laboratory efficiency of perovskite tandem batteries reaching 32.08% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 10.0 billion, 12.03 billion, and 14.67 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at -510 million, 620 million, and 1.05 billion yuan [6][11]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow significantly from 607.16 million yuan in 2025 to 2.47 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [11][12]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 are 20 and 12 times respectively, reflecting an anticipated improvement in earnings [6].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Zhongrun Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. (Zhongrun) is advancing its IPO process in Hong Kong, having submitted its application twice, with a focus on specialized photovoltaic cell manufacturing and vertical expansion into module production [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongrun is the world's largest specialized manufacturer of photovoltaic cells, with a significant market share of 18.3% among specialized manufacturers and 14.6% among all manufacturers, based on a projected shipment of 34.5GW in 2024 [1]. - The company has two main business lines: photovoltaic cells and modules, with cell revenue accounting for 81.1% of total revenue in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Zhongrun's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected at 12.517 billion, 20.838 billion, and 11.320 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 834 million, 1.681 billion, and a loss of 1.363 billion RMB [1]. - In the first half of 2025, Zhongrun reported revenue of 7.465 billion RMB, a 26.46% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.204 billion RMB, reversing previous losses [1][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price declines, with prices for mainstream products dropping by 60% to 90% compared to 2020 highs, leading to a competitive environment characterized by aggressive pricing strategies [7][9]. - Zhongrun's average selling price for photovoltaic cells decreased from 0.9945 RMB/W in 2022 to 0.3202 RMB/W in 2024, reflecting the industry's pricing pressures [8]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Zhongrun is capitalizing on the shift from P-type to N-type photovoltaic cells, with N-type cell revenue growing from 0% in 2022 to 48.1% in 2024, driven by advancements in technology [3][4]. - The company is focusing on R&D for advanced technologies such as HJT, TOPCon, and perovskite cells, which are critical for maintaining competitive advantages and ensuring long-term growth [10]. Group 5: International Expansion - Zhongrun has established a global presence, with over 15GW of monocrystalline cell capacity and 3GW of module capacity overseas, serving customers in more than 32 countries [5]. - In 2024, 67.1% of Zhongrun's revenue came from mainland China, while 32.9% was generated from international markets, indicating successful international expansion efforts [6].