证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 尚太科技（001301.SZ） 出货持续景气，业绩符合预期 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4,391 | 5,229 | 7,434 | 9,448 | 10,913 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -8.2 | 19.1 | 42.2 | 27.1 | 15.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 723 | 838 | 1,045 | 1,350 | 1,604 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -43.9 | 16.0 | 24.6 | 29.2 | 18.8 | | ROE（%） | 12.8 | 13.4 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 16.6 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 2.77 | 3.21 | 4.01 | 5.18 | 6.15 | | P/E（倍） | 20.2 | 17.5 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 9.1 | | P/B（倍） | 2. ...

证券研究报告 目标价(人民币): 73.91 申建国 研究员 shenjianguo@htsc.com SAC No. S0570522020002 SFC No. BSK177 +(86) 755 8249 2388 边文姣 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110004 SFC No. BSJ399 bianwenjiao@htsc.com +(86) 755 8277 6411 尚太科技 (001301 CH) Q2 出货环增，盈利韧性强 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 邵梓洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124030024 shaoziyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 73.91 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 19 日) | 54.48 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 14,210 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 257.39 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 36.23-78.53 | | BVPS (人民币) | 25.03 | 股价走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The arbitration dispute between Shenzhen-listed company Huakong Saige and the government of Qitaihe City, Heilongjiang Province, stems from a lithium battery project that has stalled for four years, leading to mutual accusations of breach of contract and escalating claims for compensation [2][5][12]. Summary by Sections Project Background - In December 2019, the Qitaihe government designated a lithium battery anode material project as a key investment initiative and signed an investment contract with Huakong Saige's subsidiary, Heilongjiang Aoyuan New Materials [7]. - The government committed to providing 272,000 square meters of land and constructing the factory based on the company's design, while Huakong Saige promised to complete a production line with a capacity of 30,000 tons per year and received an advance of 50 million yuan [7]. Project Stagnation - The project quickly stalled after initiation, with Huakong Saige publicly acknowledging in 2021 that the construction had not started due to pandemic-related factors [9]. - By 2023, the project had a remaining book balance of only 5.206 million yuan, and by 2024, the company had made provisions for impairment, indicating that the project was unlikely to resume [10][11]. Escalation of Dispute - Over four years, the local government repeatedly urged progress, while the company accused the government of failing to fulfill its obligations, leading to a breakdown in relations and the initiation of arbitration proceedings in 2025 [12]. - Both parties filed for arbitration, with the government claiming that Huakong Saige had not invested the received funds and demanding the return of the 50 million yuan along with penalties for breach of contract [12]. Financial Implications - As of August 2025, the total amount claimed by the Qitaihe government had risen to approximately 23.962 million yuan, which represents about 17.6% of Huakong Saige's revenue of 136 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [14][15]. - If Huakong Saige loses the arbitration, it could face significant financial pressure, exacerbating its already challenging financial situation, as the company reported a net loss of 17.37 million yuan in the same quarter [18].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery project involving Huakong Saige has stalled, leading to a protracted arbitration battle between the company and the local government, with claims totaling 23.96 million yuan [1][5]. Group 1: Project Background - In December 2019, the Qitaihe New District government designated the lithium battery anode material project as a key investment initiative and signed an investment contract with Huakong Saige's subsidiary, Heilongjiang Aoyuan [2]. - The agreement included the government providing 272,000 square meters of land and constructing a factory based on the company's design, while Huakong Saige committed to building a production line with a capacity of 30,000 tons per year [2]. Group 2: Project Stagnation - The project quickly stalled after its initiation, with Huakong Saige acknowledging in 2021 that construction had not started due to the pandemic [5]. - By 2023, the company's annual report indicated that only 5.206 million yuan remained on the project’s books, and it had made provisions for impairment, stating that the project was expected to remain dormant [5]. Group 3: Arbitration Developments - Over four years, the local government repeatedly urged progress, while the company accused the government of failing to fulfill its obligations, leading to a breakdown in relations and the initiation of arbitration proceedings [6]. - In June 2025, both parties filed for arbitration, accusing each other of breach of contract, with the government claiming Huakong Saige had not invested the pre-paid 50 million yuan, while the company countered that the government had not completed necessary land preparations [6]. Group 4: Financial Implications - The actual controller of Huakong Saige has changed, and the amount in dispute represents 17.6% of the company's revenue for the first quarter, which was 136 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.98% [7]. - If the company loses the arbitration, its financial pressure could increase significantly, as the total claims from the government, including the project costs and additional claims, amount to approximately 74 million yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense family feud within the Shanshan Group following the sudden death of its founder, Zheng Yonggang, which has led to significant financial decline and potential bankruptcy for the company [2][3]. Group 1: Family Feud - Zheng Yonggang passed away unexpectedly in February 2023 without leaving a will, disrupting the existing power balance within the Shanshan Group and leading to chaos [5][8]. - Zheng Yonggang's son, Zheng Ju, was initially appointed as chairman but faced immediate challenges from his stepmother, Zhou Ting, who questioned the legitimacy of the board meeting and sought legal action to freeze key shares [13][14]. - The conflict escalated, with Zhou Ting pushing for a more defensive strategy while Zheng Ju aimed for aggressive growth, resulting in internal strife and decision-making paralysis [32][34]. Group 2: Company History and Growth - Founded in 1989, Shanshan Group transformed from a struggling garment factory into a leading clothing brand and later diversified into the lithium battery materials sector, becoming a significant player in the industry [17][19][25]. - By 2021, Shanshan's revenue soared to 20.7 billion, with a net profit of 3.34 billion, marking a significant turnaround for the company [27]. - However, the company faced challenges due to overexpansion and high debt levels, leading to financial strain as market conditions worsened [29][30]. Group 3: Financial Decline and Bankruptcy - Following Zheng Yonggang's death, Shanshan's financial situation deteriorated, with revenues dropping to 19 billion and net profits shrinking to 760 million in 2023 [35]. - By 2024, the company reported its first annual loss since going public, with a revenue decline of 2.05% and a net loss of 367 million, exacerbated by high debt levels [36][39]. - The company is now facing bankruptcy proceedings, with significant debts and ongoing power struggles within the family, leading to a loss of control over the company [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Jiangsu Baichuan High-tech New Materials Co., Ltd., Zheng Tiejiang, has been placed under investigation and detention by the Jiangyin Municipal Supervisory Committee, leading to a significant drop in the company's stock price and raising concerns about its financial stability and ongoing projects [2][9]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Baichuan High-tech New Materials Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002, with Zheng Tiejiang holding a 75% stake initially. The company has undergone several changes in ownership structure, with Zheng and his family remaining the primary shareholders [4]. - The company has faced financial difficulties, with a significant drop in revenue from 2014 to 2016, but saw a recovery in subsequent years, primarily driven by its traditional chemical business rather than its newer energy materials segment [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Baichuan's new materials and energy businesses reported negative gross margins of -4.76% and 0.51%, respectively, contributing to an overall net loss of 466 million yuan [6]. - The company reported a gross margin of -1.95% for its new materials business and -38.69% for its energy business in 2024, although its chemical business improved to a gross margin of 16.90%, allowing the company to return to profitability [7]. Shareholding and Financial Issues - As of March 2023, Zheng Tiejiang had pledged 36,397,500 shares, representing 6.12% of the company's total shares and 43.16% of his holdings, primarily for personal financing needs [8]. - Baichuan's financial situation is strained, with a significant liquidity gap, as its current assets of 3.016 billion yuan are overshadowed by current liabilities of 7.637 billion yuan, indicating a need for financial restructuring [8]. Impact of Leadership Changes - The detention of Zheng Tiejiang introduces uncertainty to ongoing projects, particularly in the energy sector, which has already been underperforming [9]. - The increasing regulatory scrutiny in the capital market reflects a broader trend of tightening oversight, which may impact investor confidence and the company's operational stability [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the lithium battery materials sector, particularly focusing on the strategic shift of Zhongke Electric towards establishing a large-scale anode material project in Oman while delaying another project in Morocco due to financial pressures and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Zhongke Electric plans to build a 200,000-ton annual capacity anode material base in Oman with a total investment of no more than 8 billion RMB, divided into two phases [1]. - The company has decided to delay the construction of its previously approved project in Morocco, which was set to invest 5 billion RMB for a 100,000-ton annual capacity [2]. - The decision to shift focus from Morocco to Oman is attributed to the greater demand for energy transition in the Middle East, particularly in the energy storage sector, and the competitive landscape in Morocco [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhongke Electric reported a revenue of approximately 5.58 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 13.7%, and a net profit of around 300 million RMB, up approximately 626.5% [4]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of about 1.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 50%, and a net profit of around 130 million RMB, up about 465.8% [5]. - Despite a revenue decline of 6.64% in 2023, the company has shown resilience and is now expanding its overseas investment targets [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the solid-state battery market has not yet disrupted the anode materials market, as graphite remains the dominant material due to its low cost, good performance, and mature technology [8]. - The U.S. has shown a significant dependency on Chinese anode materials, with about 60% of its imports coming from China, despite ongoing trade tensions [9][10]. - The reduction of anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese anode materials from 920% to 6.55% indicates a potential easing of trade barriers, allowing for continued export opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant revenue and net profit growth, driven by the production ramp-up of its new integrated anode material project [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.628 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.14% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 239 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 60.87% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.16% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 247 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.17% [1]. Sales and Production - The estimated sales volume for Q1 2025 was between 69,000 to 70,000 tons, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase attributed to the new production project [2]. - The average selling price for anode products was estimated at 23,000 to 24,000 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The net profit per ton was stable at approximately 3,300 to 3,700 yuan [2]. Cost and Pricing Impact - The increase in petroleum coke prices is expected to impact profitability in Q2 2025, with a projected cost increase of approximately 1,176 yuan per ton due to higher prices [3]. - As of April 27, 2024, petroleum coke prices had decreased to 4,500 yuan per ton, down 23% from late February [3]. Capacity Expansion and Incentives - The company plans to construct a 200,000-ton integrated anode material project in Shanxi and a 50,000-ton project in Malaysia, both expected to start construction in Q3 2025 and reach production by 2026 [4]. - By 2027, the effective production capacity for artificial graphite anode materials is projected to exceed 500,000 tons [4]. - A stock incentive plan was announced in August 2024, with performance targets set for annual net profit or sales volume growth of no less than 25% from 2024 to 2026, reflecting confidence in future growth [4]. Investment Rating - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits of 1.016 billion, 1.324 billion, and 1.500 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 62.24 yuan, based on a reasonable PE ratio of 16 times [5].