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碳酸锂日评:波动再放大,持仓注意保护-20250826
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 06:18
Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250826: Fluctuations Amplified Again, Protect Positions [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term supply and demand are both strong, the fundamentals change little in the short term, and it is necessary to guard against the recurrence of "contrarian" sentiment. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, buy on dips if there is an oversell, and appropriately buy options for protection [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared to the previous trading day, with increases of 400 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 420 yuan/ton, and 420 yuan/ton respectively [3] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on August 25, 2025, was 626,916 lots, a decrease of 305,759 lots compared to the previous trading day [3] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of active contracts on August 25, 2025, was 368,667 lots, an increase of 6,413 lots compared to the previous trading day [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on August 25, 2025, was 25,630 tons, an increase of 640 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 0 yuan/ton; the spread between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 540 yuan/ton; the spread between consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton [3] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 82,500 yuan/ton; the average price of 99.2% industrial - grade domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 80,200 yuan/ton [3] Company News - **Zhongkuang Resources**: In the first half of 2025, the company's self - supplied raw materials achieved a lithium salt output of 17,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.37%. It also directly sold 34,800 tons of self - produced spodumene powder ore and adjusted the raw material supply structure to reduce lithium salt production costs [3] - **Global Lithium Resources**: The Manna lithium mine project in Australia has obtained a 21 - year mining lease. The final feasibility study (DFS) is expected to be optimized by the end of 2025 [3] - **Pilbara Minerals**: In the fiscal year 2025, the company's spodumene concentrate output reached 754,600 tons, a 4% increase compared to the fiscal year 2024 [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, but the production of mica - based lithium carbonate decreased, and the production of spodumene - based lithium carbonate increased. In August, the planned production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the scheduled production increased [3] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the production of ternary materials increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C product shipments were average. In August, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased [3] Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 25,630 tons, an increase of 640 tons. Social inventory decreased, with smelters and others reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [3] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to operate in the short - term range. If there is an oversell, buy on dips and appropriately buy options for protection [3]