Supply of Light Rare Earths - The biggest variable in the supply of light rare earths is the mining quota set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which has not yet been disclosed for 2025 [3] - Baotou Steel's 2024 annual report indicates a 3.4% increase in rare earth concentrate production for 2025, but overall supply growth is expected to be limited due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths and a 6.45% decrease in tungsten quotas [3] Demand for Light Rare Earths - In the first half of 2025, China's total production of new energy vehicles increased by 40.61%, with a penetration rate of 44.13% [4] - Wind power installations in China saw a significant increase, with a 104.64% year-on-year growth in new installed capacity during the same period, reaching 26.3 GW in May 2025 [4] Heavy Rare Earths Production - China dominates global rare earth smelting and separation capacity, accounting for approximately 88.56% of the total 407,000 tons (REO) expected in 2024 [5] - It is projected that by 2029, global rare earth smelting and separation capacity will rise to 560,000 tons (REO), with China's share decreasing to 64.17% [5] Strategic Metal Resource Management - China has implemented four rounds of export controls on strategic metal resources in 2023, with an increasing number of metals being controlled and faster implementation times [6][7] - The latest measures have included a broader range of metals, indicating a growing emphasis on managing strategic resources [6][7] Price Trends Post-Export Controls - Historical data shows that export controls typically lead to a short-term increase in metal prices and export volumes before stabilizing [8] - Following the recent export controls on tungsten and medium-heavy rare earth elements, a price increase is anticipated in the coming months as export volumes recover [8] Company Performance Elasticity - An elasticity analysis of four rare earth listed companies indicates that a 1% price increase in rare earth products could significantly impact their performance, particularly for companies focused on ion-adsorption type rare earth mines [9]

Market Overview - On June 13, A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.75% to 3377.00 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.10% to 10122.11 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.13% to 2043.82 points [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets was approximately 14672.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 1954.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included aerospace, nuclear pollution prevention, oil, national defense and military industry, and shipping ports [1] - Conversely, sectors that saw declines included emerging economies, daily chemicals, infant products, IP economy, CRO/CMO, beauty care, film and television, publishing, cultural media, and food and beverage [1] Individual Stock Performance - Only 849 stocks rose, with 63 hitting the daily limit up, while 4477 stocks fell, with 15 hitting the daily limit down [1] Geopolitical Impact - The Israeli Defense Ministry announced an attack on Iran, which negatively impacted market sentiment [1] - The potential for conflict escalation in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to significant oil price increases if shipping is disrupted [2] Company Spotlight: Hengguang Co., Ltd. - Hengguang Co., Ltd. was a standout performer, with a 20% increase in stock price, despite the overall market downturn [3] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of sulfur and chlorine chemical products [3] - In Q1 2025, Hengguang reported earnings per share of 0.04 yuan and a net profit of 4.1587 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 127.88% [3] - The company benefits from the nuclear pollution prevention concept, with its core product, ammonium perchlorate, primarily used in rocket propellants and explosives [3] - Hengguang's sodium chlorate production in 2023 was 50,100 tons, providing essential raw materials for ammonium perchlorate production [3]