大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线）日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,239.7 | -10.0 | -0.44% | 5,566.0 | -20.50% | 11,039.0 | -10.93% | | EC2510 | 1,537.0 | -11.0 | -0.71% | 59,535.0 | -10.69% | 50,131.0 | -3.10% | | EC2512 | 1,701.8 | -6.9 | -0.40% | 5,752.0 | -22.25% | 8,446.0 | -1.02% | | EC2602 | 1,477.3 | 16.8 | 1.15% | 1,2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market shows that the spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, with some shipping companies slightly reducing the freight rate in late July. The EC market generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August. The dry - bulk shipping market has ended its three - week decline, with the freight rates of large - sized ships expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The oil tanker transportation market's freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs further attention [4][24][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The spot freight rate is reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced the freight rate in late July. The EC market is volatile. On July 14, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week. The SCFI European line on July 11 was 2099 dollars/TEU, down 0.1% week - on - week. Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1 [4]. - In June, China's exports to the US were 381.7 billion dollars, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant month - on - month improvement. Exports to ASEAN were 581.9 billion dollars, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were 492.2 billion dollars, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. Logic Analysis - Spot freight rates vary among shipping companies. The OA alliance's freight rates remain high. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but tariff policies may affect the shipping rhythm. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively. July is a period of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1, and additional tariffs may impact China's exports and re - export trade [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile, pay attention to tariff and geopolitical dynamics [9]. - Arbitrage: Roll - over operation of the 10 - 12 spread [10]. Industry News - The White House economic advisor said Trump received trade agreement proposals and may impose additional tariffs if not improved. The EU extended the suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs to early August. Trump announced additional tariffs on Mexico, the EU, etc. The US and India are negotiating a trade agreement to reduce India's tariffs to below 20%. There are developments in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [11][13][14]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize ship freight index rose 440 points or about 26.4% to 2104 points, with the daily average profit increasing by 3654 dollars to 17453 dollars. The Panamax ship freight index rose 137 points or 8% to 1860 points, with the daily average profit rising by 1236 dollars to 16743 dollars. The Supramax ship freight index rose 37 points or 3.1% to 1219 points [20]. - The spot freight rates of Capesize ships' iron ore routes increased. The weekly freight rates of coal and bauxite routes of Capesize ships and coal and grain routes of Panamax ships also increased. From July 7 - 13, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2987.1 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments increasing [22][23]. Logic Analysis - The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The Capesize ship market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased shipping inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax ship market's freight rates continued to rise due to strong coal and grain transportation demand and tight shipping capacity. The freight rates of large - sized ships are expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [24]. Industry News - Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, Brazil, and the EU starting from August 1. Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships. The coal export volume of Newcastle Port in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 Chinese ports decreased [25][26]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs attention [28]. Industry News - Trump's dissatisfaction with Putin may lead to more sanctions on Russia, affecting oil prices. The domestic refined oil retail price may be reduced. OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, and the demand in the third quarter is expected to be strong [30].