大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,119.9 | 9.3 | 0.84% | 15,562.0 | 10.14% | 21,030.0 | -15.14% | | EC2512 | 1,688.0 | -43.9 | -2.53% | 41,507.0 | 168.58% | 24,222.0 | 16.61% | | EC2602 | 1,406.0 | -236.8 | -14.41% | 12,789.0 | 213.53% | 8,743.0 | 2.45% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The shipping market shows mixed trends across different segments. In container shipping, the spot market is under pressure with falling prices, and the market anticipates intensified competition among shipping companies in the second half of the year due to tariff impacts. In dry bulk shipping, the market sentiment is complex, but short - term运价 for large and medium - sized ships is expected to be slightly bullish. In oil tanker transportation, the crude oil market is tightening with rising freight rates, while the refined oil market is relatively calm with stable freight rates [5][18][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Disk Performance**: On August 28, all listed futures contracts of the container freight index (European Line) showed declines, with EC2510 closing at 1285 points, down 2.36% from the previous day. The trading volume of some contracts increased significantly, such as EC2510 with a 40.64% increase, and EC2604 with an 85.93% increase [2]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European Line index was 1990.20 points, down 63.73% year - on - year and 8.71% month - on - month. Most container freight routes showed year - on - year and month - on - month declines [2]. - **Fuel Costs**: The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $67.2 per barrel, up 0.76% month - on - month and down 14.9% year - on - year; WTI crude oil near - month was $63.34 per barrel, up 0.88% month - on - month and down 15.26% year - on - year [2]. - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: Mainstream shipping companies face high cargo - collecting pressure, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. The EC disk fell below 1300 points. It is expected that the freight rate support will weaken in the off - season of the second half of the year, and competition among shipping companies will intensify. The trading strategy suggests a bearish and volatile trend for singles, and a rolling operation of reverse spreads between the 10 - 12 contracts at low prices [5][8][9]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Dry Bulk Freight Index**: On August 27, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) was 2046 points, up 0.24% day - on - day and 18.88% year - on - year. The Panamax and Supramax bulk carrier demand increased, while the Capesize ship freight index decreased [15]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On August 27, the Capesize ship iron ore route: Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI - C3) freight rate was $24.71 per ton, down 0.04% month - on - month; Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $10.33 per ton, down 3.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 90.8 tons month - on - month. In August 2025, the cumulative soybean shipment was 725.78 tons, and the cumulative corn shipment was 496.04 tons [17]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: The spot market of Capesize ships in Australia and Brazil is differentiated. The Panamax ship market has relatively stable coal and grain cargoes, and the market expectation is optimistic. It is expected that the freight rate of large - sized ships will be slightly bullish in the short term, and the medium - sized ship market will also be slightly bullish [18]. Oil Tanker Transportation - **Oil Transportation Market Freight Index**: On August 27, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1036, unchanged day - on - day and up 17.59% year - on - year; the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 622, down 0.32% day - on - day and up 1.3% year - on - year [23]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: The crude oil market and the refined oil market have different trends. The crude oil market is in an upward trend, and the demand for VLCC and Suezmax increases, supporting the upward movement of freight rates. The refined oil market is relatively calm, and the freight rate maintains a volatile trend [24]. Industry News - **Container Shipping**: The US plans to complete an investigation into imposing additional tariffs on furniture imports within 50 days. The White House trade advisor said that India could get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil. The EU plans to accelerate the legislative process to completely cancel tariffs on US industrial products [5][10]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: As of the week of August 21, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1305325 tons. In July 2025, the US coal production was expected to be 46.9586 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34% [19]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: On August 28, 2025, after the discount of Russian oil weakened, India resumed purchasing Russian oil. The EIA inventory shows that the US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while the refined oil inventory increased [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the container shipping market, the spot price is in a rapid decline, and the valuation of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downward. The market is under pressure from tariffs, and the overall freight rate center is expected to move down in the second half of the year [5][6]. - In the dry - bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose to a more than one - week high. The freight rates of large - scale ships are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and the medium - sized ship market is also expected to be slightly stronger [14][17]. - In the tanker transportation market, the crude oil and refined oil markets show a differentiated trend. The crude oil market is tightening, supporting freight rates, while the refined oil market is weak and the freight rates are in an oscillating trend [21]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Situation**: On August 27, EC2510 closed at 1316 points, down 0.22% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported $1668/TEU on August 22, down 8.35% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported 1990.2 points, down 8.7% month - on - month. The final delivery settlement price of EC2508 was 2135.28 points. The freight rate support in the off - season in the second half of the year is expected to weaken, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify [5]. - **Tariff Impact**: The US plans to complete an investigation on imposing tariffs on furniture imports within 50 days. In 2024, the US imported 31.55 million TEU of containerized goods, of which furniture, home furnishings, and lighting accounted for 411,000 TEU, or 13% of the total imports [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be in a bearish oscillation. The 10 - contract valuation center is expected to be revised downward. For arbitrage, conduct low - level rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [7][9]. Industry News - Starting from August 29, the US will suspend the tax - free treatment for imported packages worth $800 or less, which will harm low - income groups and put logistics companies in trouble [9]. - Trump said he may visit China this year or as soon as possible, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays a strategic leading role in Sino - US relations [9]. - Trump threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China for rare - earth magnet supplies, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [10]. - Brazilian President Lula emphasized the importance of sovereignty, negotiation, and multilateralism and said Brazil will handle tariff disputes with the US through negotiation [10]. - More than 70% of Israeli people support ending the Gaza conflict through an agreement to exchange detainees, and 40% of soldiers' willingness to participate in the war has declined [11]. Dry - Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose to 2041 points on August 26, up 5% from the previous day. The Capesize ship freight index rose 8.5% to 3031 points, and the Panamax ship freight index rose 2.7% to 1818 points [14]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On August 26, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.72/ton, up 5.46% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.72/ton, up 14.10% month - on - month [15]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 908,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.604 million tons, an increase of 44,000 tons. In the fourth week of August 2025, Brazil shipped 7.2578 million tons of soybeans and 4.9604 million tons of corn [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore cargo volume in the Australian and Brazilian markets of Capesize ships increased, and the freight rates rose significantly. The Pacific coal cargo volume in the Panamax ship market was fair, and the freight rates rose slightly. In the short term, the freight rates of large - scale ships are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - sized ship market is also expected to be slightly stronger [17]. Industry News - Indonesia abolished the rule that miners must sell coal and minerals at the government - set base price [18]. - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products [18]. Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rates**: On August 26, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1036, down 0.58% month - on - month and up 17.19% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 624, up 0.97% month - on - month and down 0.16% year - on - year [21]. - **Market Situation**: The crude oil market is tightening, and the demand for VLCC and Suezmax is increasing, supporting freight rates. The refined oil market is weak, and the freight rates are oscillating. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of concentrated bookings on the Middle - East routes in September, and long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping [21]. Industry News - As of the week ending August 27, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 16.009 million barrels, an increase of 518,000 barrels from the previous week [22]. - Russia plans to increase its oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, but there is uncertainty due to drone attacks and maintenance work [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for container shipping is in a downward trend, and the EC futures market is expected to remain weakly volatile. The dry bulk shipping market has seen a decline in the Baltic Dry Index due to falling freight rates for Capesize vessels, while the tanker market shows a divergence between the crude oil and refined oil sectors [6][14][22]. Summary by Directory Part I: Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On August 20, the EC2510 contract closed at 2123 points, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SCFI Europe Line reported on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month-on-month. The second-phase settlement index of EC2508 reported on Monday was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month-on-month, slightly exceeding market expectations [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in cargo volume and sufficient capacity supply, spot freight rates are accelerating their decline. The tariff policy has put pressure on the market, and geopolitical factors such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect a weak and volatile market. For arbitrage, consider rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low levels [8][9]. Industry News - Trump believes there is a good chance to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Korea's KMTC ordered 4 container ships and returned to the Trans - Pacific route [11]. Part II: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The Baltic Dry Index fell to a two - week low on Tuesday due to falling Capesize vessel freight rates. The Capesize vessel freight index and daily earnings decreased, while the Panamax vessel freight index and daily earnings increased slightly [14]. - **Spot Rates**: On August 19, the Capesize vessel iron ore route rates from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased. Weekly data showed mixed trends for different routes [15]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 11 - 17, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, and Brazilian soybean and corn shipments showed certain growth compared to the same period last year [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market has few cargoes and weak market sentiment, while the Panamax vessel market has limited coal and grain cargoes. The short - term freight rates of large - sized vessels are under pressure, and the support for medium - sized vessel freight rates from coal transportation demand is expected to weaken [18]. Industry News - The iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The US added product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. A coal - laden bulk carrier explosion closed the main channel of the Baltimore Port [19]. Part III: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On August 19, the BDTI was 999, down 1.58% month - on - month and up 8.0% year - on - year. On August 18, the BCTI was 612, up 1.16% month - on - month and down 4.38% year - on - year [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The crude oil market is stable, with VLCC and Aframax vessel freight rates supported by tight capacity. The refined oil market has an imbalance between supply and demand, and short - term and long - term factors need to be monitored [22]. Industry News - The refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased. India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [23][24]. Part IV: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation indices and freight rates over different time periods [26][37][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of continuous game with mainstream shipping companies having differentiated quotes, and the EC disk generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations and the cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East [4][5]. - For the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose on Tuesday driven by the increase in Capesize ship freight rates. The market demand for large - sized ships is expected to improve in the short - term, while the medium - sized ship market lacks the impetus for continuous rise in the short - term but has a good peak - season shipping expectation later [17][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Disk - Different futures contracts show different price changes. For example, EC2510 closed at 1537 points on July 23, down 0.71% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Monthly Difference Structure - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread of EC08 - EC10 was 703, up 1 [2]. Container Freight Rates - Container freight rates vary by route. The SCFIS European Line was 2400.50 points, down 0.89% week - on - week and 62.01% year - on - year. Some routes' freight rates increased week - on - week, while others decreased [2]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was $64.58 per barrel, down 1.84% week - on - week and 16.40% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price was $67.89 per barrel, down 0.56% week - on - week and 16.5% year - on - year [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The market is in a game state with mainstream shipping companies' quotes being differentiated. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East. The trading strategies include holding or rolling short positions in the EC2510 off - season contract and conducting rolling operations for the 10 - 12 reverse spread [4][5][8]. Dry Bulk Shipping Dry Bulk Freight Index - On July 22, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 19 points, or 0.94%, to 2035 points. The Capesize ship freight index rose 80 points or 2.7% to 3061 points, while the Panamax ship freight index fell 6 points, or 0.3%, to 1909 points [16][17]. Spot Freight Rates - On July 22, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.12 per ton, up 0.81% week - on - week. As of July 18, the freight rates of some coal and bauxite routes also changed [18]. Shipment Data - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, up 122.0 million tons week - on - week. In July 2025, Brazil shipped 743.68 million tons of soybeans in the third week [19]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The Capesize ship market has a general cargo volume with increasing market wait - and - see sentiment, but shipowners' quotes are relatively firm, and freight rates rose slightly. The Panamax ship market's demand for grain and coal transportation decreased, and the market sentiment was stable with slightly fluctuating freight rates. The market transportation demand is expected to improve in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the iron ore shipment demand in mid - and early August [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For container shipping, the spot freight rate is gradually recovering, with the first round of price increases exceeding expectations and the second round still under observation. The spot freight rate center is expected to continue rising, and there is still an expectation of price increases in July. In the short term, the market is volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see. For the 08 contract, with the peak - season expectation still in place, the general idea is to go long on dips, and 10 - 12 and 6 - 8 reverse arbitrages should be held [5][6][7]. - For dry - bulk shipping, the Baltic Dry Index reached a near - seven - month high on June 9. Recently, the transport demand of large - vessel markets has increased, supporting the freight rate, but it may peak and decline in the short term. The medium - vessel market is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the coal transport demand [15][18]. - For oil tanker transportation, the BDTI is maintaining a volatile trend. OPEC+ has gradually increased production since May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The impact of the cargo source release rhythm on the freight rate should be further observed [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On June 10, the EC2508 contract closed at 2042.1 points, down 1.14% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European Line reported 1622.81 points on June 6, up 29.5% month - on - month, and the SCFI European Line reported $1667/TEU on June 6, up 5.04% month - on - month [2][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The spot freight rate in June is gradually rising, with the second - week price center between $2800 - 2900. Mainstream shipping companies have launched the second round of GRI window price increases in June. The first round of price increases exceeded expectations, and the second round is still under observation. The demand side has the continued rush of shipments on the Sino - US route, alleviating the pressure of vessel spill - over from the US route to the European route. The supply side shows that the monthly average weekly capacity from May to August 2025 is 27.36/27.58/30.53/31.94 million TEU respectively [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see due to high short - term uncertainty. For the 08 contract, the general idea is to go long on dips. For arbitrage, hold the 10 - 12 and 6 - 8 reverse arbitrages [7][8]. Industry News - On June 6, Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding delivered the world's largest 24000TEU LNG dual - fuel ultra - large container ship "CMA CGM Saint - Germain" for CMA CGM, 6 months ahead of schedule. The US Trade Representative's Office adjusted the port charging structure for Chinese - built ships, postponed the implementation time for using US - built LNG carriers for US LNG exports, and further targeted car carriers [10]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, on June 10, Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that if Iran is attacked by Israel, Israel's secret nuclear facilities will become Iran's targets. Iran's Foreign Ministry said it will take retaliatory measures if the IAEA passes a resolution against Iran [11][12]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On June 9, the Baltic Dry Index rose 3.6% to 1691 points, reaching a near - seven - month high. The Capesize vessel freight index rose 5.9% to 3010 points, and the Panamax vessel freight index rose 1.5% to 1264 points, while the Supramax vessel freight index fell to 926 points [14][15]. - **Export Data**: In May, Brazil exported 35.077 million tons of iron ore, up 7.4% year - on - year and 16.2% month - on - month. From January to May, the export volume was 150 million tons, up 2.5% year - on - year. The export volume to China in May was 23.43 million tons, up 14% year - on - year [15]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On June 9, the freight rate of the Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI - C3) route was $24.13/ton, down 1.45% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao (BCI - C5) route was $10.09/ton, down 3.39% month - on - month [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The transport demand of the Capesize vessel market has weakened recently, and the freight rate may peak and decline in the short term. The Panamax vessel market is relatively positive, and it is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the coal transport demand [18]. Industry News - From June 2 to June 8, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.104 million tons, up 794,000 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.194 million tons, up 506,000 tons month - on - month [19]. - In May, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, up 1.1% month - on - month, and imported 481,000 tons of steel, down 7.9% month - on - month. The import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 98.131 million tons, down 4.9% month - on - month, and the import volume of coal and lignite was 36.04 million tons, down 4.7% month - on - month [20]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rate Index**: On June 9, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 941, down 1.05% month - on - month and 25.73% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 616, down 1.60% month - on - month and 25.42% year - on - year [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC+ has gradually increased production since May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The impact of the cargo source release rhythm on the freight rate should be further observed [23]. Industry News - The price of refinery naphtha has been declining in the past three months, but the profit of the refinery reforming unit has improved, and the demand for naphtha is expected to improve [25]. - The oil production of five OPEC+ member countries participating in the production increase in May increased by 180,000 barrels per day, lower than the promised increase of 310,000 barrels per day [25]. - Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that if Iran is attacked by Israel, Israel's secret nuclear facilities will become Iran's targets [26].