Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry (European route) is rated as "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the tariff exemption period may not reproduce the first - round market for the US route, and the transmission effect of the second - round exemption on the European route will be significantly weakened. The European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - round 90 - day tariff exemption period US route market review - From April to May 2025, due to the change of US tariff policy, the US route market experienced three typical stages: short - term pulse - type rebound period, high - level shock adjustment period, and supply - demand weakening downward period. The overall market trend was weaker than the initial optimistic expectations [8][9] 2. Tariff exemption period extension, US route may not reproduce the first - round market - The freight rate upward cycle driven by the first - round tariff exemption policy was short - lived, with a particularly short high - level platform period. Constrained by high inventory and the approaching off - season, the second - round 90 - day tariff exemption window will have a significantly weakened marginal stimulation effect on new demand. On August 12, the tariff exemption was extended for 90 days, but the US route is difficult to reproduce the first - round market [15][16][20] 3. Second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route is weakened - Before the tariff exemption, the European route market faced supply - demand surplus and seasonal off - season pressure. During the first - round exemption, the European route freight rate was strongly supported. However, due to the US route's difficulty in reproducing the first - round market and the shipping companies' conservative deployment strategy, the second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route will be significantly weakened [28] 4. European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution - In August, the European route freight rate declined from the top due to increased supply and weakened demand. In the traditional off - season from September to October, the downward trend is established. Short - term bearish thinking is maintained, and the strategy of shorting October is recommended. If there is an unexpected suspension of voyages, the trading logic may switch, and opportunities such as going long on December or 10 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [3][32][33]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot freight rate in the container shipping (European line) market is expected to remain weak, but the downward slope may slow down due to cost support and traditional peak - season cargo volume [1]. - The export volume of Chinese goods to Europe on the demand side remains stable, and the traditional restocking demand is expected to drive the shipment volume to improve month - on - month from the second half of May [1]. - The planned shipping capacity in late May will rise to 280,000 - 300,000 TEU/week, which is not enough to trigger a full - container situation [1]. - The 06 contract is under the dual pressure of "weak reality" and "weak expectation" and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term; the 08 contract involves the game of the expectation of improved tariff policies, but the uncertainty of policy change rhythm is high [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Market Quotes - Maersk opened the cabin for W20 yesterday with a quote of $1450/FEU, the lowest in the current market, indicating poor confidence in the loading rate in early May [1]. - The SCFI European route freight rate was $1316/TEU on April 18, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.9%. From April 23 - 28, the TCI was $1440.6/TEU on April 23 - 27 and dropped to $1406.9/TEU on April 28, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.3%. The freight rate from Tianjin to European base ports was $2225.0/FEU on April 28, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.5% [2]. b. Shipping Company Quotes - Different shipping companies have different quotes and price changes for different time periods (April 28 - May 18). For example, Maersk's quotes for 20GP and 40GP vary in different weeks, and some shipping companies' quotes have decreased compared to the previous day [2].