人民财讯12月23日电，在今日由证券时报举办的"攻守之道：新消费高波动背后的定价逻辑重构"沙龙 上，景顺长城研究部基金经理张欢指出，2026年新消费投资或将往"两端"迁移：一是市场需求刚起步、 尚处于早期阶段的品类，包括新功效成分的保健品和口服养生品、医美创新材料、宠物保健品等；其次 是供给释放相对有序，甚至有望出清，供需相对平衡的品类，包括功能性饮料、低糖健康食饮、古法黄 金，以及零食量贩和高端美容服务(中小企业出清)等，其中优选成长确定性高的单品牌或平台型公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities emphasizes the importance of creating new demand to promote consumption and investment, enhancing the internal circulation's endogenous power and reliability during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 1: Demand-Side Management - The "Suggestions" elevate the expansion of domestic demand to a strategic level, indicating a fundamental adjustment in the national economic growth logic and a reorientation of supply-demand relationships [1] - The document proposes that new demand should lead new supply, and new supply should create new demand, marking a shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency [1] Group 2: Policy Direction for Consumption - The "Suggestions" outline clear policies to boost consumption, including enhancing public service spending, increasing residents' consumption capacity, and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption [2] - The report anticipates that future policies will focus more comprehensively on social security areas such as elderly care and healthcare [2] Group 3: Opportunities in Food and Beverage Consumption - Food and beverage consumption is expected to gain incremental opportunities as it follows the overall expansion of consumption [3] - New channel models like instant retail, snack wholesale, and membership supermarkets are emerging, reshaping the sales landscape and presenting new investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.0%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, up 3344.1% year-on-year [7] - The snack wholesale business continues to show strong growth, with Q1 revenue of 10.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.6% [7] - The net profit margin for the snack wholesale business significantly improved, reaching 3.85% in Q1, up from previous quarters [7] - The report anticipates continued growth for the company, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 944 million, 1.257 billion, and 1.608 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 221.68%, 33.18%, and 27.85% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 9.294 billion yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 49.460 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 944 million yuan in 2025, with an EPS of 5.25 yuan [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 69.23 in 2024 to 21.52 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [1] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 13.46% by 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.91% [8]