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上市首日暴涨次日回落 长风药业超额认购背后有何隐忧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 23:17
Core Viewpoint - Changfeng Pharmaceutical has successfully entered the inhalation drug market, traditionally dominated by multinational companies, by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after 18 years of effort [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changfeng Pharmaceutical officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 8, 2023, with an IPO price of HKD 14.75 per share, and saw its stock price surge to HKD 48, marking a 225.42% increase on the first day [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 31.72 million in 2023, reversing a loss of RMB 49.39 million in 2022, and projects a revenue of RMB 608 million for 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% from 2022 to 2024 [2][6]. - The company has approximately 40 research and development pipelines, with four products approved by the National Medical Products Administration of China and one product approved by the FDA [6]. Group 2: Market Performance - The public offering of Changfeng Pharmaceutical was oversubscribed by nearly 6,700 times, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence in the company's competitive edge [2][3]. - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in activity, with 68 IPOs completed in the first three quarters of 2023, a 51.11% increase from the previous year, and total fundraising reaching HKD 182.4 billion, up 228% year-on-year [10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The inhalation drug market in China is highly concentrated, with the top five products accounting for 69.6% of the market share, and Changfeng's core product, CF017, holds approximately 16% of the market share for budesonide inhalation drugs [5][6]. - Despite strong initial market performance, Changfeng Pharmaceutical faces significant risks, particularly its heavy reliance on the CF017 product, which accounted for 96.2% of total revenue in 2022 and is projected to decline in growth [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to use approximately 40% of the IPO proceeds for research and development of inhalation drug candidates, 30% for expanding production facilities, and 20% for supporting other pipelines [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that the company must diversify its product offerings and continue to innovate to mitigate risks associated with dependence on a single product and to navigate the competitive landscape effectively [12].
上市首日大涨218%,长风药业单品依赖症未解
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-08 06:29
Core Viewpoint - Changfeng Pharmaceutical successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 8, achieving a remarkable opening increase of 218.64%. However, the company's performance is heavily reliant on a single product, "Inhalation Budesonide Suspension," which accounts for over 90% of its revenue, facing intensified market competition and growth challenges [1][3]. Company Overview - Established in 2007, Changfeng Pharmaceutical focuses on inhalation formulations targeting respiratory diseases, including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and allergic rhinitis. The company has received six product approvals from the National Medical Products Administration and the U.S. FDA [3]. Financial Performance - The revenue for Changfeng Pharmaceutical from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be approximately RMB 349 million, RMB 556 million, and RMB 608 million, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9%. The net profit for the same period is expected to be -RMB 49.4 million, RMB 31.7 million, and RMB 21.1 million [3][4]. Product Dependency - The "Inhalation Budesonide Suspension" (CF017) is the primary revenue driver, contributing 96.2%, 98.4%, 94.5%, and 91.6% of total revenue from 2022 to Q1 2025. In contrast, the revenue contribution from CF018 is significantly lower, at 0.1%, 0.2%, 3.9%, and 7.6% during the same period [4][6]. Market Competition - The global inhalation formulation market for respiratory diseases is projected to reach USD 26.8 billion (approximately RMB 195.6 billion) in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.2% until 2033. The Chinese market is expected to grow from RMB 232 billion in 2024 to RMB 351 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.7% [5][6]. Sales Performance - CF017's sales volume from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 121 million, 198 million, and 209 million units, with a significant decline in growth rate from 63.97% to 5.66%. The sales revenue for the same period is projected to be RMB 336 million, RMB 548 million, and RMB 574 million, with a decrease in growth rate from 63.05% to 4.88% [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - To mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single product, Changfeng Pharmaceutical plans to diversify its product line and enhance its overall risk resilience. The company intends to allocate 40% of its IPO proceeds to the research and clinical development of domestic and international inhalation formulation candidates [6][7]. Controversies - During its previous attempts to list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Changfeng Pharmaceutical disclosed significant "hospital visit fees," raising concerns about its long-term sustainability and investor trust. The company has since reframed its sales expenses in its latest prospectus [7][8].