证券研究报告 | 2026年03月31日 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 优于大市 2025 年啤酒业务量升价减,产品结构延续提升 公司公布 2025 年业绩：2025 年实现营业总收入 324.7 亿元，同比+1.0%； 实现归母净利润 45.9 亿元，同比+5.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 41.3 亿元， 同比+4.5%。2025Q4 实现营业总收入 31.1 亿元，同比-2.3%；实现归母净利 润-6.9 亿元，同比+6.4%；实现扣非归母净利润-7.9 亿元，同比+7.7%。 啤酒业务量升价减，产品结构提升。啤酒业务收入同比+0.8%，其中销量同比 +1.5%，吨价同比-0.7%，主要系市场费用投入增多。青岛主品牌销量同比 +3.5%，其中中高档产品销量同比+5.2%，青岛主品牌销量占比提升 1.2pp 至 58.8%。青岛啤酒经典系、白啤、超高端系列等产品销量持续创历史新高。 盈利能力提升主要受益于原料成本下行。啤酒毛利率 41.7%，同比+1.6pp，主 要受益于原料成本下行，啤酒吨成本同比-3.3%。公司费用率同比变化不大， 政府补助、投资收益、持有债券类资产的公允价值变动收益同比减少，归母 净利 ...

2026 年 03 月 28 日 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品饮料 青岛啤酒（600600） 2025 年报点评：经典、白啤韧性增长，分红 率稳步提升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 32,138 | 32,473 | 33,394 | 34,870 | 36,193 | | 同比（%） | (5.30) | 1.04 | 2.83 | 4.42 | 3.80 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,345 | 4,588 | 4,829 | 5,200 | 5,555 | | 同比（%） | 1.81 | 5.60 | 5.25 | 7.67 | 6.84 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.19 | 3.36 | 3.54 | 3.81 | 4.07 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 19.61 | 18.57 | 17.65 | 16.39 | 15.34 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [1] Core Insights - In 2025, Qingdao Beer achieved operating revenue of 32.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.59 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.13 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year [6] - The company experienced steady sales growth with a total sales volume of 7.648 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while the average price per ton decreased slightly by 0.4% to 4,246 yuan [7] - The company continues to focus on high-end product development, with sales of its main brand increasing by 3.5% year-on-year, and sales of mid-to-high-end products growing by 5.2%, significantly outpacing overall sales growth [7] - The company is implementing a high-quality development strategy, focusing on product diversification and market expansion, including a strong emphasis on shareholder returns with a proposed cash dividend of 3.206 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of approximately 70% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the gross profit margin was 41.84%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices and product structure optimization [8] - The sales expense ratio for 2025 was 13.81%, down 0.51 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio was 4.51%, up 0.13 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The net profit margin for 2025 reached 14.53%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2026 and 2027 to be 48.887 billion yuan and 51.24 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected EPS of 3.58 yuan for 2026 and 3.76 yuan for 2027 [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17x for 2026 and 16x for 2027, reflecting the company's strong market position and brand advantages [10]