公司研究 证券研究报 告 青岛啤酒（600600）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 逆势稳增，布局修复 目标价：90 元、70 港元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025年半年报，25H1公司实现营业总收入 204.9亿元，同增 2.1%； 实现归母净利润 39.0 亿元，同增 7.2%；扣非后归母净利润为 36.3 亿元，同增 6.0%；25Q2 公司实现营业总收入 100.5 亿元，同增 1.3%；实现归母净利润 21.9 亿元，同增 7.3%；扣非后归母净利润为 20.3 亿元，同增 6.0%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 32,138 | 33,156 | 34,288 | 35,067 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 4,345 | 4,733 | 5,210 | 5,553 | | 同比增速(%) | 1.8% | 8. ...

事件：公司发布2025 年半年报，根据公司公告，2025H1 公司实现营业总收入204.91 亿，同比增长 2.11%，归母净利润39.04 亿，同比增长7.21%，扣非净利润36.32 亿，同比增长5.99%。2025Q2，公司实 现营业总收入100.46 亿，同比增长1.28%，归母净利润21.94 亿，同比增长7.32%，扣非净利润20.29 亿，同比增长6.02%。公司业绩符合预期。 投资评级与估值：维持盈利预测，预测2025~2027 年公司实现归母净利润48/52/55 亿，分别同比增长 10.3%/8.6%/5.9%，当前股价对应2025~2027 年PE 分别为20/18/17x，港股最新收盘价对应2025~2027 年 PE 分别为13/12/12x。当前青岛啤酒（A 股）股息率（以2024 年度分红金额计算）3.2%，青岛啤酒股份 （港股）股息率4.7%(税前)。伴随着未来资本开支减少，公司分红率具备提升空间，维持买入评级，H 股更具吸引力。中长期看，公司持续优化产品结构，吨酒价格有望进一步提升，伴随成本压力改善，盈 利弹性将进一步释放。公司作为兼具品牌力和高端化基因的本土企业，产能利用率 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 26 日 青岛啤酒 (600600) ——25Q2 点评：产品结构进一步提升 成本红利驱动净 利率提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 投资要点： 上 市 公 司 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 21.96 | | 资产负债率% | 41.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,364/709 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 08-26 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 青岛啤酒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 《青岛啤酒（600600）点评：销量恢复增 长，关注旺季表现》 2025/04/28 《青岛啤酒（600600）点评：成本下降驱 动盈利改善 25 年关注产品结构升级》 2025/03/30 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The Qingdao Beer Festival is experiencing widespread popularity across various cities in China, creating a vibrant atmosphere for social gatherings and consumption [1][3][18] - The festival is successfully integrating local cultural elements and sporting events, such as the "Soochow Super League," enhancing the overall experience for attendees [3][5][6] Group 1: Festival Highlights - The Qingdao Beer Festival is celebrated in multiple cities, including Hohhot, Nanjing, and Jinan, showcasing local hospitality and cultural diversity [1][11] - The festival has become a significant social event, with thousands of attendees enjoying beer, food, and live sports, creating a lively and immersive experience [6][15] - In cities like Yangzhou and Zhangjiakou, the festival has sparked consumer enthusiasm and become a trending topic among locals [7][15] Group 2: Economic Impact - Local businesses are benefiting from the festival's popularity, with reports of high customer turnout and increased sales, such as a vendor in Zhangjiakou making over 9,000 yuan on the opening day [15] - The festival is driving tourism and local consumption, with unique offerings like cultural performances and local delicacies enhancing the overall appeal [15][18] - The integration of local food and drink experiences, such as pairing Qingdao beer with regional dishes, is contributing to a richer consumer experience [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Qingdao Beer Festival is creating a vibrant atmosphere across various cities in China, combining beer enjoyment with social events like the "SPL" league, thus driving consumer engagement and summer leisure activities [3][6][11] Group 1: Event Highlights - The Qingdao Beer Festival is being held nationwide, providing emotional value and creating immersive summer experiences for citizens [3][6] - The festival features a combination of beer and sports viewing, enhancing the celebratory atmosphere and attracting large crowds [5][6] - In cities like Nanjing and Yangzhou, the festival has successfully integrated local culture and sports, leading to full attendance and lively interactions among attendees [6][8] Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The festival has sparked significant consumer interest, with vendors reporting long queues and high sales, indicating a strong market response [9] - In Jinan, unique food offerings and creative merchandise have become popular attractions, enhancing the overall festival experience [9] - The festival's inclusive nature appeals to diverse age groups, fostering a sense of community and shared enjoyment [11] Group 3: Cultural Integration - The Qingdao Beer Festival showcases local culinary traditions and cultural performances, enriching the festival experience and promoting local heritage [8][11] - The event serves as a platform for cities to express their unique cultural identities while engaging in a nationwide celebration [8][11] - The festival's ability to adapt and innovate keeps it relevant and appealing to consumers, ensuring its continued success [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Jinan Qingdao Beer Festival is revitalizing consumer activity in the city, providing a vibrant summer experience through a unique beer celebration format that enhances social interaction and enjoyment [1][4]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The festival features a tented format, offering a comfortable environment that is unaffected by weather changes, creating a strong sense of community and engagement among attendees [3][4]. - Attendees can enjoy a variety of Qingdao beer products, including fresh draft beer and new product lines, catering to diverse consumer preferences [6][12]. - The event includes creative installations and interactive experiences that integrate local cultural elements, enhancing the overall festival atmosphere [10][12]. Group 2: Consumer Experience - The festival has become a popular destination for relaxation and socializing, with attendees enjoying fresh beer alongside local delicacies [8][16]. - Special promotional items, such as beer cups featuring local landmarks, serve as unique souvenirs and enhance the connection between the festival and the city [14][16]. - The festival is part of a broader trend of beer culture that is being leveraged to promote urban tourism and local identity [10][12].

Group 1: Brand Value and Market Position - Qingdao Beer has a brand value of 280.355 billion RMB, retaining its position as the number one beer brand in China [2] - The company is actively engaging with consumers through sports marketing, leveraging the connection between beer and football to enhance brand visibility and consumer interaction [2] Group 2: Non-Alcoholic Beer Market - The non-alcoholic beer market is experiencing significant growth, with a market value exceeding 13 billion USD in 2023, projected to reach nearly 4% of the overall alcohol market by 2027 [3] - Qingdao Beer is at the forefront of non-alcoholic beer innovation, having launched the first non-alcoholic beer in China in 2012 and achieving breakthroughs in production technology [4][5] Group 3: Product Innovation and Consumer Engagement - Qingdao Beer is committed to product innovation, launching a variety of new products, including flavored beers and non-alcoholic options, to meet diverse consumer preferences [6][12] - The company has successfully integrated consumer creativity into product design, exemplified by the "Sakura Can" project that involved consumer participation [6] Group 4: Cultural and Experiential Marketing - Qingdao Beer is enhancing consumer experiences by creating diverse consumption scenarios, such as beer-themed cultural tourism and immersive events [8][9] - The brand is leveraging its historical and cultural heritage to connect with modern consumers, establishing itself as a cultural symbol in urban life [12] Group 5: Digital and Instant Retail Strategies - The company has introduced a "Fresh Delivery" service, allowing consumers to order fresh beer products through digital platforms, enhancing the immediacy of consumption [11] - This initiative reflects a shift in consumer demand towards fresh experiences and convenience, aligning with the evolving retail landscape [11] Group 6: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Qingdao Beer reported a 7.08% increase in net profit, achieving sales of 2.261 million kiloliters and revenue of 10.446 billion RMB [12]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Shanghai Wine Festival has opened at the Jin Chao 8 Nong Bin Port Commercial Center, featuring multiple benefits and activities to boost Shanghai's summer night economy through wine and food pairing [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The festival showcases over a thousand types of wines from renowned domestic and international wineries, covering various categories such as white wine, red wine, yellow wine, beer, and spirits, reflecting diverse wine cultures from around the world [3]. - The event integrates wine, food, culture, and art, allowing visitors to enjoy global wines without leaving Shanghai [3]. Group 2: Activities and Promotions - Various unique activities are set up by exhibitors, including free tastings of award-winning wines from Zhangyu, a collaboration with brand ambassador Hua Chenyu by Penfolds, and an immersive wine museum experience by "Cast Express" [5]. - Other brands like Qingdao Beer and Yuanhai provide special offerings such as themed ice cream and cocktails, creating a vibrant atmosphere for attendees [5]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement - The festival collaborates with three major commercial districts to enhance consumer experience, offering benefits like "Drunken Beauty Welfare Coupons" and "Tipsy Map 2.0" for attendees [8]. - Various shopping centers are running limited-time promotions, allowing consumers to exchange vouchers for free beer at the festival [8]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The event aims to leverage ticket root economics by combining shopping center coupons with festival discounts, providing consumers with substantial savings [10].

Core Viewpoint - The 9th China Time-honored Brand (Shandong) Expo showcases the rich heritage and innovative achievements of time-honored brands, with Qingdao Beer, a 122-year-old brand, prominently featured, attracting attention from domestic and international distributors and visitors [1] Group 1: Qingdao Beer Presentation - Qingdao Beer presented its full range of products, including Classic 1903, Pure Draft, White Beer, and others, at the expo, drawing significant visitor interest and engagement [5][9] - The beer's unique flavors and styles were well-received, with attendees expressing pride in the brand and sharing personal connections to it [3][5] Group 2: Product Innovation and Technology - Qingdao Beer has leveraged technology to enhance its distribution, ensuring that fresh raw beer can reach consumers across various regions, including remote areas [7] - The company maintains strict brewing standards and utilizes data-driven approaches to ensure product quality, with nearly 400 beer flavor compounds standardized [10][12] Group 3: Brand Evolution - Qingdao Beer exemplifies the balance of tradition and innovation, continuously evolving while adhering to its century-old quality standards [10][12] - The brand has received national recognition for its technological advancements, positioning itself as a leader in the future of manufacturing [12]

Core Viewpoint - The significant price reductions in alcoholic beverages during the 618 shopping festival are attributed to increased competition among e-commerce platforms and substantial subsidy investments in the liquor category [3][4]. Group 1: Price Reductions - Major liquor brands, including Moutai and Jian Nan Chun, have seen their prices drop significantly, with Moutai available for around 1900 yuan and Jian Nan Chun for 369 yuan [1][3]. - Beer prices have also decreased, with brands like Snow Beer and Budweiser priced under 4 yuan [2]. Group 2: E-commerce Competition - The competition among leading e-commerce platforms has intensified, leading to increased subsidies for liquor products, with some brands offering official subsidies of up to 10% [3][4]. - The 618 shopping festival has expanded its subsidy coverage to the liquor sector, further driving down online prices [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The summer season typically sees a decline in liquor consumption, contributing to lower market prices [3]. - Beer consumption has shifted from on-premise channels like restaurants to off-premise channels, prompting beer companies to focus on flash sales and delivery services [5][6]. - Non-on-premise beer is generally cheaper, and with additional subsidies during the 618 festival, prices are expected to decrease further [6][7].