Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk events are increasing, while domestic policy expectations are positive. The iron ore port inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the molten iron output has decreased for two consecutive weeks, weakening demand support. The sluggish steel market may drag down iron ore prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the I2509 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - The continuous decline in iron ore arrivals and port inventory supports the ore price, but as the molten iron output corrects from its high level, the support from the demand side weakens. It is suggested to buy out - of - the - money put options [55]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights 1.1 Price - As of the close on May 23, the price of the iron ore main contract was 718 (-10) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 801 (-15) yuan/dry ton [6]. 1.2 Shipment - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.3478 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 318,800 tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 283,200 tons. Australia's shipment was 1.8887 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,100 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.635 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 800 tons. Brazil's shipment was 886,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 237,100 tons [6]. 1.3 Arrival - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.2804 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 289,600 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.2713 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83,300 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0578 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203,600 tons [6]. 1.4 Demand - The daily average molten iron output was 2.436 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [6]. 1.5 Inventory - As of May 23, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14.59183 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155,160 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 914,490 tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8.92548 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,680 tons [6]. 1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The I2509 contract was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 35.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On May 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,900, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 14,267, an increase of 4,643 compared with the previous week [21]. 2.3 Spot Price - On May 23, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Industry Situation 3.1 Arrival Volume - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.3478 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 318,800 tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 283,200 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.2804 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 289,600 tons [30]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14.59183 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155,160 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 343,190 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 97,400 tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 71,390 tons, and trade ore decreased by 137,340 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8.92548 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,680 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore was 301,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,040 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.57 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 days [33]. 3.3 Inventory Available Days - As of May 22, the average inventory available days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2 days. On May 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,341, a week - on - week decrease of 47 [38]. 3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; from January to April, the import volume was 388.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. As of May 16, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sampled mines was 66.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%; the inventory was 634,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,500 tons [42]. 3.5 Domestic Ore Output - In April 2025, China's iron ore output was 84.696 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%; from January to April, the cumulative output was 328.596 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2%. In March, the iron concentrate output of 433 iron mines was 2.3587 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 246,500 tons or 11.7%; from January to March, the cumulative output was 6.7368 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 470,300 tons or 6.5% [46]. 4. Downstream Situation 4.1 Crude Steel Output - In April, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, the same as the previous year; from January to April, the cumulative output was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49]. 4.2 Steel Exports and Imports - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%; from January to April, the export volume was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 522,000 tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 20.7%; from January to April, the import volume was 2.072 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [49]. 4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On May 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.436 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [52]. 5. Options Market - It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options as the arrival and port inventory of iron ore continue to decline, supporting the ore price, but the support from the demand side weakens as the molten iron output corrects from its high level [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows overseas Fed maintaining interest rates and UK - US tariff trade agreement, while domestically, there will be Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks and central bank measures to stabilize the property market. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased, but April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates are slightly up, and hot metal production remains high. Technically, the iron ore 2509 contract shows a bearish pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of May 9, the iron ore main contract futures price was 696 (-7.5) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 (-7) yuan/dry ton. - The total Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased by 218000 tons this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.184 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons. - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 45200 tons. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons; at 45 ports, 24.497 million tons; and at the six northern ports, 13.347 million tons. - Hot metal production increased by 220 tons, with a daily average of 2.4564 million tons. - Port inventory decreased by 83000 tons. As of May 9, 2025, the inventory at 47 ports was 147.64 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.5898 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, up 2.59 percentage points week - on - week and 6.92 percentage points year - on - year [6]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks will be held, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market. - Supply and demand: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventory decreased. However, April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates were slightly up, and hot metal production remained high. - Technical: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed DIFF and DEA below the 0 - axis. - Strategy: It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures prices fluctuated weakly this week. The I2509 contract was stronger than the I2601 contract, with a spread of 26 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Iron ore warehouse receipts remained flat this week, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 3200 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 7604 lots, an increase of 7823 lots from last week. - Spot prices declined this week. On May 9, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, spot prices were stronger than futures prices, with a basis of 103 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [14][22][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The total arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons, and the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons. - The utilization rate of mine production capacity decreased, and the BDI index decreased. As of April 25, the utilization rate of 266 mines was 63.06%, and the inventory was 65260 tons. On May 8, the BDI was 1316, down 105 week - on - week. - Iron ore port inventory decreased. This week, the total inventory at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. - The available days of iron ore inventory in sample steel mills remained flat this week. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5898 million tons, and the available days of inventory in large and medium - sized steel mills were 22 days as of May 7 [32][35][40]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - From January to April, steel exports increased year - on - year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, and from January to April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel and imported 2.072 million tons of steel. - Steel mill blast furnace operating rates increased, and hot metal production increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, and the daily average hot metal production was 2.4564 million tons [46][49]. 3.5 Options Market - With the overall weakness of the black - series and the significant rebound in iron ore imports, the expectation of increased supply is enhanced. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [52].