Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade showed resilience in the first five months of the year, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] Trade Performance - Exports increased by 7.2% while imports decreased by 3.8% in the first five months [1] - In May, the total trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3% and imports declining by 2.1% [1] - The general trade method accounted for 64.2% of total foreign trade, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] Key Export and Import Products - Mechanical and electrical products remained the main export category, with a value of 6.4 trillion yuan, a 9.3% increase, making up 60% of total exports [1] - Notable growth in specific products included industrial robots (55.4%), electric vehicles (19%), integrated circuits (18.9%), and construction machinery (10.7%) [1] - Major commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and coal saw a decline in import prices, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased [1] Trade Partners and Market Dynamics - Private enterprises were the largest trading entities, with a total import and export value of 10.25 trillion yuan, a 7% increase, accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [2] - The top three trading partners were ASEAN, the EU, and the US, with trade values of 3.02 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), while trade with the US decreased by 8.1% [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 9.24 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase, and trade with African countries hit a record high of 963.21 billion yuan, up 12.4% [2] Future Outlook - The export growth in May indicates ongoing external demand resilience, while the narrowing decline in imports suggests marginal improvement in domestic demand [3] - The activity of foreign-funded enterprises reached a near five-year high, with over 73,000 companies engaged in import and export activities, reflecting China's long-term attractiveness to foreign investment [3] - Expectations for June include continued export growth due to the "export rush" effect and proactive market expansion by foreign trade companies [3]

2025年5月20日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在京会见美国亚洲协会会长康京和。王毅说，中 国对美政策保持连续性和稳定性，始终遵循习近平主席提出的相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢三原则。 近期中美经贸高层会谈取得进展，这再次说明，平等对话、相互尊重、妥善处理彼此合理关切符合中美 两国共同利益。但与此同时，美方继续遏制打压中国的正当发展权利，近日竟然试图对中国芯片进行全 面封杀，这是赤裸裸的单边霸凌，中方坚决反对。(外交部网站) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA market: After the Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks, the atmosphere of bulk chemicals weakened, and the PTA market gave back some of the gains. Although downstream polyester manufacturers released remarks about production cuts, it is likely to adjust the output of polyester sub - products, and the impact on the PTA market is currently limited. The basis of PTA has strengthened significantly, and the market contango has emerged. Polyester factories' inventory has improved, and terminal export demand is expected to strengthen [2]. - MEG market: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China remains at over 700,000 tons. The inventory change is small. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol plants has recovered, putting pressure on the market, but coal prices have started to rise. The profit of coal - based plants has been compressed, and the mainstream plants are about to be overhauled, which will lead to the de - stocking stage [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: On May 15th, INE crude oil was 463.2 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1431.9 yuan/ton; on May 16th, INE crude oil was 456.2 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1458.7 yuan/ton, with a change of - 7.00 and 26.87 respectively [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX decreased from 854 to 838, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 264 to 273 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA main futures price decreased from 4798 yuan/ton to 4774 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased from 5030 to 4990, the spot processing fee decreased from 390.3 yuan/ton to 438.8 yuan/ton, the disk processing fee increased from 158.3 yuan/ton to 222.8 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased from 205 to 192. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 69236 to 70046 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price decreased from 4461 yuan/ton to 4460 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha increased from (86.32) to (85.51), the MEG domestic price decreased from 4581 to 4570, and the main basis decreased from 95 to 85 [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: PX and PTA operating rates remained unchanged at 73.32% and 74.41% respectively, MEG operating rate decreased from 53.02% to 52.52%, and polyester load decreased from 91.34% to 91.14% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F remained at 7050, POY cash flow increased from (35) to 3; FDY150D/96F remained at 7310, FDY cash flow increased from (275) to (237); DTY150D/48F increased from 8230 to 8245, DTY cash flow increased from (55) to (2); 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6805 to 6750, polyester staple cash flow decreased from 70 to 53; semi - bright chip decreased from 6045 to 6015, chip cash flow increased from (140) to (132). The sales of long - filament decreased from 35% to 28%, the sales of polyester staple decreased from 44% to 36%, and the sales of chips decreased from 40% to 36% [2]. Trade Negotiation Impact - Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th. Both sides agreed to establish a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and the reciprocal tariffs were significantly reduced. 24% of the tariffs were suspended within the initial 90 days, and the right to impose the remaining 10% tariffs on these goods was reserved. The additional tariffs on these goods imposed by Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, were cancelled [2]. Device Maintenance - Due to the recent rapid rise in raw material prices, three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making varieties and plan the next - step production cut plan, which will be implemented in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the issue of rare earth export controls, indicating adjustments in response to the U.S. actions regarding tariffs [1] Group 1 - The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, He Yongqian, stated that China is considering the cancellation or suspension of export controls on rare earths [1] - The adjustments are in line with the U.S. decision to withdraw or modify additional tariffs on China based on the consensus reached during high-level economic talks [1] - China will correspondingly adjust its tariff and non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. [1]

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 玻璃期货日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 玻璃期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场（元/吨） | 2025/5/13 | 2025/5/12 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沙河长城 | 1181 | 1181 | 1198 | 0 | -17 | | 沙河安全 | 1220 | 1220 | 1228 | 0 | -9 | | 沙河德金 | 1164 | 1164 | 1173 | 0 | -9 | | 沙河大板 | 1190 | 1194 | 1207 | -4 | -17 | | 湖北大板 | 1120 | 1160 | 1160 | -40 | -40 | | 浙江大板 | 1400 | 1400 | 1400 | 0 | 0 | | 华南大板 | 1320 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0 | | 东北大板 | 1240 | 1240 | 1240 | 0 | 0 | | 西北大板 | 1280 | 1280 | 1280 | 0 | 0 | | 西南大板 | 13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to supporting foreign trade enterprises amidst complex external challenges, emphasizing resilience in foreign trade operations and the importance of international cooperation [1]. Group 1: Current Foreign Trade Situation - The external shocks have intensified, making the foreign trade environment complex and severe, yet China's foreign trade operations remain generally stable and resilient [1]. - The Chinese government has taken countermeasures against the U.S. imposing high tariffs on Chinese products, aiming to protect national interests and uphold international fairness [1]. Group 2: Government Actions and Support - The Ministry of Commerce will implement the decisions of the Central Committee, coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles to provide more support for foreign trade enterprises [1]. - Various government departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Finance, and others, responded to the issues and suggestions raised by enterprises during the roundtable meeting [1]. Group 3: Business Confidence - Representatives from participating enterprises and trade associations expressed confidence in their ability to cope with external shocks and achieve stable business development [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows overseas Fed maintaining interest rates and UK - US tariff trade agreement, while domestically, there will be Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks and central bank measures to stabilize the property market. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased, but April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates are slightly up, and hot metal production remains high. Technically, the iron ore 2509 contract shows a bearish pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of May 9, the iron ore main contract futures price was 696 (-7.5) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 (-7) yuan/dry ton. - The total Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased by 218000 tons this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.184 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons. - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 45200 tons. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons; at 45 ports, 24.497 million tons; and at the six northern ports, 13.347 million tons. - Hot metal production increased by 220 tons, with a daily average of 2.4564 million tons. - Port inventory decreased by 83000 tons. As of May 9, 2025, the inventory at 47 ports was 147.64 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.5898 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, up 2.59 percentage points week - on - week and 6.92 percentage points year - on - year [6]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks will be held, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market. - Supply and demand: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventory decreased. However, April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates were slightly up, and hot metal production remained high. - Technical: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed DIFF and DEA below the 0 - axis. - Strategy: It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures prices fluctuated weakly this week. The I2509 contract was stronger than the I2601 contract, with a spread of 26 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Iron ore warehouse receipts remained flat this week, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 3200 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 7604 lots, an increase of 7823 lots from last week. - Spot prices declined this week. On May 9, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, spot prices were stronger than futures prices, with a basis of 103 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [14][22][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The total arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons, and the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons. - The utilization rate of mine production capacity decreased, and the BDI index decreased. As of April 25, the utilization rate of 266 mines was 63.06%, and the inventory was 65260 tons. On May 8, the BDI was 1316, down 105 week - on - week. - Iron ore port inventory decreased. This week, the total inventory at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. - The available days of iron ore inventory in sample steel mills remained flat this week. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5898 million tons, and the available days of inventory in large and medium - sized steel mills were 22 days as of May 7 [32][35][40]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - From January to April, steel exports increased year - on - year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, and from January to April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel and imported 2.072 million tons of steel. - Steel mill blast furnace operating rates increased, and hot metal production increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, and the daily average hot metal production was 2.4564 million tons [46][49]. 3.5 Options Market - With the overall weakness of the black - series and the significant rebound in iron ore imports, the expectation of increased supply is enhanced. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [52].

据玉渊谭天微博消息，当地时间5月6日，美国财长贝森特在接受媒体采访时回应了中美经贸高层会 谈。当被问及"谁先给对方打的电话"时，贝森特开始含糊其辞，称"没有什么谁先打电话"。 ...