2026 年 1 月 9 日 供强需弱库存高位 铁矿石震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 铁矿石月报 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责条款 ⚫ 需求要点端：受环保限产、集中检修及需求淡季影响，12 月国内钢厂生产明显收缩。高炉日均铁水产量环比下 降至约228万吨，钢厂盈利面小幅改善，但仍处于低 位。钢厂节前原料补库或对铁矿石价格形成短期支 撑，但受制于终端需求疲软，难以改变供应宽松格局。 ⚫ 供应端：12月全球铁矿石供应强劲，发运量达年内新 高，澳洲、巴西贡献显著，中国到港量维持高位。需 关注一季度南半球雨季可能引发的供应扰动。港口铁 矿石累库至历史同期高位，钢厂库存维持低位运行， ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/5 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 797.00 | +7.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 618,775 | +25428↑ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 22 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16904 | +1762↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | ...

05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 上下空间有限，震荡运行为主 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2026/01/04 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 月度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算12月全球铁矿石发运周均值3525.68万吨，环比+228.93万吨；12月，19港口径澳洲发往中国周均值1645.45万吨，较上月变化 +69.65万吨。巴西发运量周均值844.35万吨，较上月变化+20.32万吨。45港到港量周均值2613.00万吨，较上月环比-18.63万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算12月国内日均铁水产量228.22万吨，较上月变化-6.95万吨。 ◆ 库存：12月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存15929.06万吨，较上月末变化+718.94万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值316.54万吨，较上月 变化-10.56万吨。钢厂进口铁矿石日耗周均值282.24万 ...

东证衍生品研究院黑色金属资深分析师：许惠敏 从业资格号 : F3081016 投资咨询号 : Z0016073 报告日期：2025年12月26日 | 铁水持续下行压制需求，库存累升叠加估值压力，市场维持震荡格局 前景 铁水季节性回落，库存压力延续，矿价弱势震荡 | 因子 | 周度观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 本周全球铁矿石发运量3464.50万吨，环比减少128.00万吨（-3.56%）； 澳洲发运量1950.60万吨，环比下降102.00万吨（-4.97%）； 巴西发运量864.10万吨，环比减少48.80万吨（-5.35%）；澳巴合计发运量2814.70万吨，环比下降150.80万吨（-5.09%）。本周中国 | 中性 | | | 45港铁矿到港量2646.70万吨，环比减少76.70万吨（-2.82%）。矿山发运保持稳定，季节性供应压力未见明显缓解。 | | | 謂求 | 全国247家钢厂高炉产能利用率84.94%、环比微增0.01%（+0.01%）； 日均铁水产量226.58万吨、环比上升0.03万吨（+0.01%）； 盈利 | 利空 | | | 比例37.23% ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/12/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 777.50 | +9.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 518,155 | +29159↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 19.5 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 14165 | +5994↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,300.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 104.75 | +1.10↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 854 | +5↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 849 | +6↑ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 758 | +6↑ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干 ...

行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 0.13%。 研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 基本面：上周 Mysteel 统计全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 15300.81 万吨，环比增加 90.69 万吨；日均疏港量 318.45 万吨，环比下降 12.13 万 吨。上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 80.16%，环比减少 0.93%，同比减少 1.31 个%；日均铁水产量 232.3 万吨，环比减少 2.38 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 后市展望：上周铁矿石价格在 106 美元/吨附近上下波动，目前 1 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月17日08时11分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价均已经跌破了下方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方 有布林带下轨的支撑，短线窄幅震荡之后，面临方向选择。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。价格处于低位，不建议做空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3053 7 0.23% 19 0.63% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3256 2 0.06% 11 0.34% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3190 -10 -0.31% 0 0 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 ...

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a slight decline, with PB powder port spot prices at 775 CNY/ton and super special powder at 675 CNY/ton [1] - On November 11, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 763.0 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.20%, reaching a high of 767.0 CNY/ton and a low of 759.0 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 262,391 contracts [1] Group 2 - CSN, a Brazilian steel and mining group, reported third-quarter iron ore production of 11.928 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with sales reaching 12.396 million tons, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year [3] - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.626 million tons, an increase of 458,000 tons from the previous period, indicating a slight accumulation trend, with current inventory levels slightly below the median for the second half of the year [3] Group 3 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures research report, global iron ore shipments have decreased compared to the previous period but remain slightly above last year's levels, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining [4] - Domestic arrivals have significantly decreased but are still at high levels compared to the same period last year, while steel demand has weakened during the off-season, leading to increased losses for steel mills and continued production cuts [4] - The macroeconomic factors affecting the market are weakening, and the market is beginning to reflect the reality of marginal easing in iron ore, with expectations of a primarily fluctuating trend in iron ore prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroeconomically, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th, and the federal government's "shutdown" will set a record. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The domestic port inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. Coupled with the weak steel market squeezing furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a low level. The operation suggestion is to short on rebounds and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 776.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 544,659 lots, down 3,095 lots [2]. - The price difference between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 22 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 22,121 lots, down 8,273 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,000.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.40 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 64 yuan, down 6 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.60 US dollars/ton, down 1.25 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.23, up 0.03 [2]. - The estimated import cost was 853 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,213.80 million tons, down 174.50 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 3,314.10 million tons, up 1,229.80 million tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,272.93 million tons, up 163.44 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,849.86 million tons, down 229.33 million tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23.00 days, up 4 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.35 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.97%, up 0.47% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 47.75 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the BDI index was 1,958.00, up 13.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.99 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.485 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.33%, down 0.05%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.21%, down 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 16.53%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 14.55%, down 0.93% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,213.8 million tons, a decrease of 174.5 million tons compared with the previous period. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,759.2 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 million tons, a decrease of 77.5 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3,314.1 million tons, an increase of 1,229.8 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3,218.4 million tons, an increase of 1,189.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,585.9 million tons, an increase of 490.0 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to decline in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions in the rebar industry are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, the inventory has increased significantly, and the price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore turned weak and declined, with a daily decline of 2.07%, and both the volume and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore is performing well, which supports the price of iron ore. However, the supply of iron ore is high, and the resilience of demand is weakening. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a high-level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Among them, domestic sales were 89,877 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 84,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [6]. - From January to September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the new car sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.1% of the total new car sales. From January to September, automobile exports were 4.95 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.758 million, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%. From the perspective of the consumer terminal, from January to September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high - speed growth of 24.4%, and the retail penetration rate in September reached 57.8% [7]. - The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2025 will be about 1.75 billion tons, the same as in 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026 to reach 1.772 billion tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of 61.5% PB powder, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index also decreased, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, and the ocean freight increased slightly [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore futures all declined. The decline rates were 0.81%, 0.70%, and 2.07% respectively. The trading volume of rebar and hot-rolled coil plate decreased, while that of iron ore increased. The open interest of all three increased [11]. Relevant Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory changes of steel and iron ore (including rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore in ports and at steel mills), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operation rate, and profitability) [13][20][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. The production of construction steel mills is weak, and the weekly output decreased by 36,200 tons. The supply has shrunk to a relatively low level, but the space for production reduction during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect is not strong. The demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. Weak demand will continue to suppress the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner under the game of multiple and short factors [35]. - For hot-rolled coil plate, the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output decreased by 14,000 tons, but it is still at a high level within the year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large. The demand during the holiday is weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons. Although the production of cold-rolled products, the main downstream, remains at a high level, there are concerns about the demand for hot-rolled coil. The price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly [35]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand have changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remains at a high level. The demand for iron ore is performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the resilience is expected to weaken. The arrival at domestic ports continues to rise, and the overseas miners' shipments decline slightly, both maintaining high levels within the year. The supply pressure of iron ore increases. It is expected that the price of iron ore will maintain a high-level volatile operation [36].