1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level with a marginal decline. The BHP negotiation issue intensifies the expectation of resource structural tension. Overseas, the Middle - East conflict affects the commodity market, with high uncertainty in the situation. The continuation of the conflict may increase freight costs and slightly disrupt the supply side. Overall, affected by the negotiation issue and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices fluctuate widely. The recent fluctuation range has increased, and attention should be paid to risk control, as well as the progress of subsequent negotiations and the development of the geopolitical situation [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The latest global iron ore shipping volume was 2,897.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 442.9 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,342.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 348.5 tons. Australia's shipping volume was 1,753.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 195.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,465.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 105.1 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 589.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 153.3 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,697.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 467.5 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,609.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 463.0 tons [11]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 221.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points; the blast furnace operating rate was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 percentage points [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17,947.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.49 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 332.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.35 tons [11]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Price Difference**: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 123 yuan/ton, a change of +7.0 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 152 yuan/ton, a change of +20.0 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 208 yuan/ton, a change of +21.0 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 14.5 yuan/ton, a change of +6.5 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feed ratio was 14.45%, a change of +0.36 percentage points compared with the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.91%, a change of +0.21 percentage points compared with the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.64%, a change of - 0.56 percentage points compared with the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of +20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of +40 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a week - on - week change of +3.03 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 9.53 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17,187.52 tons, a week - on - week change of +69.66 tons. The pellet inventory was 383.2 tons, a week - on - week change of +18.25 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1,664.3 tons, a week - on - week change of +41.89 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1,966.48 tons, a week - on - week change of - 26.58 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 8,328.78 tons, a week - on - week change of +245.29 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 5,105 tons, a week - on - week change of - 215.40 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8,929.1 tons, a week - on - week change of - 82.47 tons [35][38][41][46]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Shipping Volume**: The latest shipping volume from Australia to China through 19 ports was 1,407.7 tons, a week - on - week change of - 101.5 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 574.5 tons, a week - on - week change of - 163.2 tons. Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 545.9 tons, a week - on - week change of - 3.5 tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 427.9 tons, a week - on - week change of - 24.3 tons. Vale's shipping volume was 387.1 tons, a week - on - week change of - 145.7 tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 257.6 tons, a week - on - week change of - 34.2 tons [51][54][57]. - **Arrival Volume**: The latest arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,609.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 463.0 tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 2,192.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 292.36 tons [60]. - **Domestic Mine**: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 59%, a week - on - week change of +0.95 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 46.11 tons, a week - on - week change of +0.75 tons [66]. 3.5. Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal output was 221.2 tons, a week - on - week change of - 6.39 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a week - on - week change of - 2.4 percentage points. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 317.9 tons, a week - on - week change of +6.82 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 271.95 tons, a week - on - week change of - 8.9 tons [71][74]. 3.6. Basis As of March 13, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 18.68 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.25% [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2605 contract remained strong. The supply and demand situation shows that the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and the iron ore port inventory continued to rise. With the end of the Two Sessions, the expected increase in hot metal production boosts the spot demand for iron ore. Additionally, the stable rebound of international oil prices will drive up freight rates again, providing support for the iron ore price. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0-axis, with a stable red bar. The reference view is that the market is oscillating with a bullish bias, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 795.50 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the position volume was 480,735 lots, up 5,766 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 29 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was -37,117 lots, up 5,083 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots, up 300 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 107.1 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 2.95 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 821 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 729 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 26 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 105.10 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.19, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 834 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 2,897.80 million tons, down 442.90 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,697.50 million tons, up 467.50 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,894.83 million tons, up 3.53 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,011.57 million tons, down 73.53 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,965.00 million tons, up 2,201.21 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.60 million tons, up 1.48 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 60.90%, up 1.87 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 50.17 million tons, up 8.45 million tons. The BDI index was 1,926.00, up 7.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 27.95 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 11.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.30%, down 2.18 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.83%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.93%, down 1.89 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 25.48%, up 4.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 24.61%, up 1.82 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed to China, with four ship rerouting events reported. Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 2,742.38 million tons, a decrease of 88.58 million tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 101.66 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 26.98, a decrease of 0.41 compared with the previous period [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The domestic iron ore port inventory, steel mill blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization rate on Friday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore demand is continuously recovering. After the Spring Festival, steel mills are resuming production steadily, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills rising to 80.22%. There is still room for growth in molten iron production after the end of northern production restrictions. However, limited by a profitability rate of only 39.83% and more than half of the enterprises incurring losses, the room for steel mills to increase their operating rates is limited. Overseas, India's demand has increased significantly, and demand in Japan, South Korea, and Europe has improved, but the US tariff policy and intensified geopolitical conflicts have brought uncertainties to global demand [3][53]. - The overall supply is becoming looser. As the impact of weather in Australia and Brazil weakens, the shipments of Rio Tinto, Vale, etc. are steadily recovering. Coupled with the incremental release of new projects such as Simandou, the global iron ore supply is loosening. Domestic mines are resuming production after the Spring Festival, and the output continues to increase month - on - month. Port inventories remain at a high level, reaching 171 million tons at 45 ports, and the supply pressure persists [3][53]. - In the next month, molten iron is in an upward cycle, which supports the iron ore price. In terms of supply, overseas shipments are steadily recovering, domestic mines are advancing in resuming production, and port inventories remain at a high level, so the supply pressure persists. In terms of demand, steel mills are resuming production steadily, and molten iron production is rising; macroscopically, the Two Sessions have released positive signals, while overseas risks add uncertainties. It is expected that the iron ore price will rebound in a volatile manner, ranging from 700 to 850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and production restrictions [3][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In February, the iron ore market fluctuated downward and was generally weak. Affected by poor macro - sentiment and a continuous weakening of fundamentals, the ore price quickly declined from the high at the beginning of the month and reached the monthly low of 736 yuan/ton on February 24, with a decline of 10% in this round. After the Spring Festival, Shanghai introduced real - estate policy adjustments, and with the support of expectations for the Two Sessions, demand recovered steadily, and market sentiment briefly improved. In early March, the futures price fluctuated and stabilized. The spot market also weakened synchronously, port prices generally declined, and the price differences between lumps and fines, as well as between high - and medium - grade ores, widened. The demand was affected by the Spring Festival off - season, terminal steel consumption had not substantially recovered, and although steel mills were resuming production one after another, the recovery of molten iron production was a bit slow, and port inventories continued to accumulate at a high level [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Molten Iron Enters an Upward Cycle after the Spring Festival - In February, blast furnace production was generally stable with a slight increase, showing a pattern of pre - festival maintenance and post - festival resumption of production. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills rose to 80.22% at the end of February, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate reached 87.45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.87 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production rose to 2.3328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 53,400 tons. The steel mills' profit performance was poor, with a profitability rate of 39.83%, a slight month - on - month increase but a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points, and more than half of the enterprises were in the red. Looking forward to March, 17 blast furnaces (with a capacity of 74,500 tons per day) are planned to resume production, and only 2 are for maintenance. However, high inventories and weak demand still restrict the production intensity, and the resumption of production rhythm of steel mills is limited [9]. - Overseas, the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariff measures implemented by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal. Trump then launched a 301 investigation and signed an executive order to impose a 10% - 15% tariff on the world, valid for 150 days. The Middle East situation has also tightened, and the joint attack by the US and Israel on Iran has led to damage to its nuclear facilities and other key targets. Iran then blocked the Strait of Hormuz and launched a counter - attack, pushing up oil prices and intensifying the volatility of global energy and risk assets. This year, overseas iron ore demand has increased slightly, but affected by tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, the global economic outlook has weakened, and the demand side still faces pressure. In January, the global blast furnace steel mill pig iron production reached 106.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons (+0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. Excluding mainland China, the sample production of other countries and regions was 35.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons (+0.3%) and a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.1%; the daily average production was 1.1596 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,400 tons (+0.29%). Regionally, India has become the main growth driver, with its crude steel production in January increasing by 11% year - on - year. The production in Japan, South Korea, and many European countries has also improved. However, the demand of major iron ore importing countries is significantly differentiated, with Japan's crude steel production decreasing by 0.5% year - on - year and demand continuing to decline, while South Korea's increasing by 8% and Germany's by 10%, both showing a recovery trend [10]. 3.2.2. Overseas Iron Ore Supply is Expected to Improve - In February, overseas iron ore shipments first decreased and then increased. At the beginning of the month, the super - hurricane "Ilsa" in Australia caused Rio Tinto's Dampier and Lambert Port to suspend shipments for 3 days. Coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall shipments were still at a relatively low level. Regionally, shipments from Australia and non - mainstream countries decreased, while those from Brazil increased slightly month - on - month. Among specific mines, the shipments of Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG first decreased and then increased, and the weekly average shipments of VALE decreased month - on - month. The weekly average global shipments were 29.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Among them, the weekly shipments from Australia were 16.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and those from Brazil were 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The shipments of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil were outstanding, with Rio Tinto increasing by 8 million tons, BHP by 1.3 million tons, FMG by 3.2 million tons, and VALE by 3.6 million tons year - on - year. From January to February, due to the low base last year, the global shipments contributed a large year - on - year increase, but in February alone, affected by the holiday, the shipment rhythm slowed down stage by stage. In March, the overseas iron ore supply is expected to improve. The impact of the Australian hurricane is weakening, and shipments will resume steadily. The rainy season in Brazil is gradually receding, and the production increase expectations of Vale and other mines are strengthening. Non - mainstream mines remain active. Coupled with the incremental release of new projects such as Simandou, the global supply is loosening, and the pressure on port arrivals may rise again [22]. 3.2.3. Iron Ore Port Inventories - In February, port iron ore inventories continued the trend of high - level accumulation. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 940,000 tons compared with the end of January to 171 million tons, an increase of 25.39 million tons compared with the same period last year, reaching the highest level in the past 6 years. Australian ore inventories increased by 3.09 million tons month - on - month, while Brazilian ore inventories decreased by 2.58 million tons; coarse powder inventories increased by 2.8 million tons, pellet inventories decreased by 430,000 tons, and lump ore inventories decreased by 1.67 million tons. The port throughput decreased by 110,000 tons to 3.2998 million tons per day. High inventories suppress the elasticity of spot prices and also reflect that the current pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged [32]. 3.2.4. Steel Mill Inventories - Steel mills actively replenished their inventories before the Spring Festival and gradually consumed them after the festival. Currently, the overall inventory is at a medium - to - low level. After the festival, they mainly replenish inventories on - demand, and the port throughput is maintained at around 2.9 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Affected by high port inventories and slow demand recovery, steel mills mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude, only maintaining rigid procurement, and waiting for the terminal demand to pick up before increasing procurement. The overall strategy is relatively conservative. It is expected that the number of available days of inventory may further decrease. In a low - inventory state, if the resumption of production accelerates after the festival, the rigid demand for replenishment is expected to be released, which will support the iron ore price, but the current high port inventories still restrict the upward space [44]. 3.2.5. Domestic Mine Production - At the beginning of 2026, domestic iron ore production was generally stable. In January, driven by the end of mine maintenance, the output increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, mine production declined slightly. According to Mysteel statistics, the iron concentrate output of 433 domestic mines in February was 22.618 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.2%, indicating that the output fluctuations at the beginning of the year were not large, mainly restricted by seasonal and holiday factors. Looking forward to March, with the end of the holiday and the resumption of normal production after the Two Sessions, the previously maintained mines will resume production intensively. It is expected that the domestic ore output will experience a recovery growth. According to Mysteel's prediction, the output in March is expected to increase by more than 2 million tons month - on - month, achieving a slight year - on - year increase [46][47]. 3.2.6. Ocean Freight - This year, geopolitical risks have dominated the trend of the global shipping market. At the beginning of March, the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz directly pushed up tanker freight rates, and the transportation costs of crude oil and refined oil increased significantly. Driven by this and affected by the mine shipping rhythm, iron ore ocean freight rates rebounded sharply. As of March 5, the freight rate for the route from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao was reported at 11.03 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32%; the route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was reported at 26.06 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11%. This round of short - term strengthening of freight rates has provided certain support for the imported ore price. Overall, the sudden geopolitical conflicts are reshaping the 2026 shipping market, and the volatility of freight rates has increased significantly [50]. 3.3. Market Outlook - Demand side: Iron ore demand is continuously recovering. After the Spring Festival, steel mills are resuming production steadily, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills rising to 80.22%. There is still room for growth in molten iron production after the end of northern production restrictions. However, limited by a profitability rate of only 39.83% and more than half of the enterprises incurring losses, the room for steel mills to increase their operating rates is limited. Overseas, India's demand has increased significantly, and demand in Japan, South Korea, and Europe has improved, but the US tariff policy and intensified geopolitical conflicts have brought uncertainties to global demand. - Supply side: The overall supply is becoming looser. As the impact of weather in Australia and Brazil weakens, the shipments of Rio Tinto, Vale, etc. are steadily recovering. Coupled with the incremental release of new projects such as Simandou, the global iron ore supply is loosening. Domestic mines are resuming production after the Spring Festival, and the output continues to increase month - on - month. Port inventories remain at a high level, reaching 171 million tons at 45 ports, and the supply pressure persists. - In the next month, molten iron is in an upward cycle, which supports the iron ore price. In terms of supply, overseas shipments are steadily recovering, domestic mines are advancing in resuming production, and port inventories remain at a high level, so the supply pressure persists. In terms of demand, steel mills are resuming production steadily, and molten iron production is rising; macroscopically, the Two Sessions have released positive signals, while overseas risks add uncertainties. It is expected that the iron ore price will rebound in a volatile manner, ranging from 700 to 850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and production restrictions [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.23%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the situation of weak supply and demand before the holiday remains unchanged, fundamental contradictions of rebar continue to accumulate, inventory has increased significantly, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.31%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand continues to weaken, and the fundamentals continue to operate weakly. The price of hot-rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance, and beware of the intensification of contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, affected by weather factors, the overseas ore supply has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable. On the contrary, the demand performance is weakly stable, and the fundamentals of iron ore remain weak. Under the dominance of the real logic, the ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the United States maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism, aiming to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US economic and trade relations [7]. - In January 2026, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.544 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.973 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The wholesale volume of self - owned car companies was 1.326 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The wholesale volume of mainstream joint - venture car companies was 0.42 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The wholesale volume of luxury cars was 0.228 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - As of February 11, 2026, 35 steel enterprises have passed the acceptance and publicity of the ultimate energy - efficiency benchmark of the China Iron and Steel Association, and on that day, Shiheng Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,190, 3,150 and 3,304 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,240, 3,140 and 3,279 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet is 2,900, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160. The volume - to - rebar spread is 50, and the rebar - to - scrap spread is 1,030. The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 758, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 767, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates are 8.27 and 22.58 respectively, the SGX swap price (current month) is 100.29, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 99.95 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,050, with a decline of 0.23%, the trading volume is 444,164, a decrease of 113,120 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 2,029,537, a decrease of 34,123 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,218, with a decline of 0.31%, the trading volume is 214,288, a decrease of 40,967 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 1,533,692, a decrease of 18,682 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 762.0, with a decline of 0.20%, the trading volume is 112,867, a decrease of 20,919 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 497,918, a decrease of 9,039 compared with the previous period [12]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore, including inventory changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of steel mills [14][29]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to weaken, inventory has increased significantly, the weekly output of short - process steel mills has decreased by 22.52 tons, and supply continues to shrink. However, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. The demand for rebar also weakens, and high - frequency demand indicators are at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to drag down steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand continue to weaken seasonally, the inventory increase has expanded, the production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 1.40 tons, and it is still at a relatively high level. The supply pressure still exists. The demand for hot - rolled coil continues to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 9.35 tons. Although the downstream cold - rolled production remains at a high level, it provides support for hot - rolled coil, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The export performance is average, and the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil weakens. The price of hot - rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills stabilizes, and the terminal consumption of ore increases slightly. However, considering the poor profitability of steel mills and the accumulation of steel market contradictions, the demand improvement is limited. The arrival volume at domestic ports has declined again, and the shipping of miners has decreased significantly due to hurricane disturbances, resulting in a short - term contraction of overseas ore supply. The domestic ore supply also contracts seasonally, and the high - inventory situation limits the relief of ore supply pressure. The ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For螺纹、热卷**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, with low output and demand. Inventory is expected to increase rapidly from a low level, and the market's demand expectation for next year is relatively weak. The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range, showing a downward trend. However, due to the low current valuation, the downside space is limited [2]. - **For铁矿石**: The market is still in the off - season, and the iron - making water production is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses more on the spring consumption demand. The global shipment has rebounded from a low level, but is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price is under pressure to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. 螺纹、热卷** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range and is approaching the previous low, with potential support. But it is considered to be in a downward trend without a reversal signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2]. **II. 铁矿石** - **Demand**: The production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses on spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have rebounded from a low level but are expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is under pressure to decline, and on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, potentially forming a downward effective breakout [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions with a light position [4]. **III. Industry News** - As of the week ending February 11, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of key steel products in China decreased by 429,100 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 266,200 tons, the social inventory increased by 533,100 tons, the total inventory increased by 799,300 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 635,300 tons [6]. - On February 11, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was $89.6 per ton, and all 64,000 tons were sold at a price of $95.1 per ton (ex - tax) [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract rebounded but faced pressure. Macroscopically, Iranian President Pezeshkiyan ordered the initiation of nuclear negotiations with the US, and high - level negotiations may be held in the next few days. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased simultaneously this period. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, the molten iron output remained below 2.3 million tons, the iron ore port inventory reached a new high, and the supply remained relatively loose. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the green bar is expanding. The reference view is oscillating bearish, and risk control should be noted [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.50 yuan; the position volume was 518,849 lots, a decrease of 1,835 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 478 lots, a decrease of 5,020 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 2,900 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, a decrease of 0.71 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 847 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 6 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 837 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 757 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 60 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.40 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.80 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.14, an increase of 0.01. The estimated import cost was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,094.60 million tons, an increase of 116.20 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,669.20 million tons, an increase of 43.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,758.26 million tons, an increase of 261.73 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,968.59 million tons, an increase of 579.77 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,965.00 million tons, an increase of 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 29 days, an increase of 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.94%, a decrease of 0.82%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.78 million tons, a decrease of 2.49 million tons. The BDI index was 2,124.00, a decrease of 24.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.87 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.345 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.49 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 79.02%, an increase of 0.36%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.45%, a decrease of 0.08%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.11%, a decrease of 0.02%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.28%, a decrease of 0.15%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.42%, an increase of 0.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.20%, a decrease of 1.54% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,094.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,521.0 million tons, an increase of 126.7 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,820.4 million tons, a decrease of 17.0 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,619.1 million tons, an increase of 131.5 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 700.6 million tons, an increase of 143.7 million tons. From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,669.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,484.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,288.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 million tons [2]

Demand - In 2025, national fixed asset investment is expected to decrease by 3.8% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to January-November [18][19] - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from January-November [18] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to decline by 2.2%, with a 1.1 percentage point increase in the rate of decline compared to January-November [18] - Real estate development investment is expected to drop by 17.2% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase in the decline rate compared to January-November [18] - January average weekly demand for rebar is 1.82 million tons, down 12% month-on-month, while hot-rolled coil demand is 3.11 million tons, up 1% month-on-month [18][19] - February demand is expected to stagnate due to the Spring Festival holiday [18][19] Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a decrease of 44.22 million tons or 4.4% year-on-year [19] - Pig iron production is expected to be 836 million tons, down 25.86 million tons or 3% year-on-year [19] - January production saw a slight rebound, with molten iron production increasing by 0.55 million tons [19] - February is expected to see stable production for long-process steel mills, while electric arc furnace plants will gradually shut down for the holiday [19] Inventory - In January, inventory of the five major steel products increased by 463,600 tons, with rebar inventory rising by 535,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory decreasing by 153,800 tons [19] - Total inventory of the five products increased by 1.4615 million tons year-on-year [19] - February is expected to see accelerated inventory accumulation due to stagnant demand and high production levels [19] Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2% month-on-month [20] - Cumulative steel exports for 2025 reached 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [20] - The implementation of the steel product export license management system from January 1, 2026, may lead to a noticeable decline in export volumes in January and February [20] Costs - In January, iron ore prices fluctuated, while coke prices saw an initial increase followed by a decline, leading to a slight narrowing of profits for long-process steel mills and an expansion of losses for short-process mills [20] - The profit margin for 247 steel mills is currently at 39.39%, with raw material replenishment nearing completion [20] Summary - The steel market in January was characterized by weak demand and insufficient driving forces, leading to narrow price fluctuations [21] - February is expected to see increased supply pressure due to stagnant demand and high production levels, with inventory accumulation expected to accelerate [21] - The overall market sentiment remains somewhat positive due to a strong atmosphere for price increases in the commodity market [21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory is rising from a low level. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [2]. - For iron ore, the overall production of the five major steel products remains basically unchanged, the apparent demand declines month - on - month, and inventory increases. The iron ore supply is expected to decline, and the port inventory is rising [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased month - on - month, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods declined month - on - month, the apparent demand for the five major varieties declined overall, inventory increased, and production remained basically unchanged [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction choice [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.19% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3280 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day and down 0.18% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production is 199.55 tons, up 4.86% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 305.41 tons, down 0.96% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 868.46 tons, up 0.25% from last week; the social inventory of threaded rods is 303.12 tons, up 2.61% from last week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 281.14 tons, down 1.63% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 809.52 tons, down 2.01% from last week; the apparent demand for threaded rods is 185.52 tons, down 2.53% from last week; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 309.96 tons, down 1.34% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products remains basically unchanged, the apparent demand declines month - on - month, and inventory increases. The iron water production is likely to decline seasonally, and the steel and iron water production will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decline, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume decreases, and the port inventory is rising. The shutdown of two Vale mines has little impact on the overall supply [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price breaks through the recent oscillation range and then falls back to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. The short - term rebound encounters resistance at the 10 - day moving average, indicating strong resistance above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 783 yuan/dry ton, down 0.63% from the previous day and down 1.0 from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price is 102.87 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.82% from the previous day and down 1.79 from last week [4]. - **Shipments**: The Australian iron ore shipments are 1653.7 tons, up 213.6 from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipments are 485.2 tons, up 5.1 from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 16766.53 tons, up 211.43 from last week; the port trade ore inventory is 11527.84 tons, up 174.99 from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on January 30, 2026 [6]. - Two iron ore units of Vale in Brazil have been ordered to suspend operations and have had their licenses revoked due to water overflow incidents. The annualized total output of these two units is expected to be about 8 million tons, accounting for about 2.3% of its annual output guidance [6]. - As of the week ending January 28, according to zhaogang.com data, the national building materials production is 430.1 tons, a decrease of 8.33 tons from last week; the factory inventory is 414.39 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons from last week; the social inventory is 388.22 tons, an increase of 21.05 tons from last week; the total inventory is 802.61 tons, an increase of 31.4 tons from last week; the apparent demand is 398.7 tons, a decrease of 14.06 tons from last week [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests short - term trading and emphasizes risk control. The port continues the inventory accumulation trend, with relatively sufficient spot resources. The record - high quarterly iron ore production and sales of Rio Tinto and the growth potential of Simandou may limit the upside of ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 786.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the position volume is 566,469 lots, down 8,780 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 14,751 lots, down 3,102 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 1,300 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 103.55 dollars/ton, up 0.36 dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 846 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore is 841 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port is 751 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract is 55 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 103.20 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port is 3.10, up 0.01. The estimated import cost is 832 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] 产业情况 - The global iron ore shipment volume is 2,929.80 million tons per week, down 251.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,897.70 million tons per week, down 117.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 17,288.70 million tons per week, up 244.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 9,262.22 million tons per week, up 272.63 million tons. The iron ore import volume is 11,965.00 million tons per month, up 911.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore are 22 days per week, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.95 million tons per week, up 0.81 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 63.02%, up 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 43.44 million tons per week, down 0.49 million tons. The BDI index is 1,803.00, up 74.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.95 dollars/ton, up 0.02 dollars; from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.55 dollars/ton, up 0.06 dollars [2] 下游情况 - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.82% per week, down 0.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.46% per week, down 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output is 6,818 million tons per month, down 169 million tons [2] 期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.78% per day, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.05% per day, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.66% per day, down 0.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.54% per day, up 1.48% [2] 行业消息 - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. Mysteel's new - caliber statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 3,088.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.05 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder is 115.99 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 26.63, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 [2]

Group 1 - The current winter season has led to a significant decline in construction activities in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, particularly in northern regions due to low temperatures and frequent rain and snow, resulting in a traditional off-peak season for construction steel consumption [1] - Market focus is on the winter storage process, with some steel mills in Northeast and North China implementing winter storage policies, although traders generally have a pessimistic outlook on future consumption, leading to low enthusiasm for winter storage [1] - As of January 9, 247 steel mills reported a total pig iron output of 2.295 million tons, marking a three-week consecutive increase, but overall profits for steel mills remain low, particularly for hot-rolled coils, which are in a loss-making state, limiting the potential for increased pig iron output [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at 47 national ports reached 170.44 million tons, the highest seasonal level in recent years, while global major mining companies are steadily releasing production capacity [2] - BHP's iron ore production in Western Australia reached a record 257 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year, with production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year set between 251 million and 262 million tons, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [2] - Vale's S11D project expansion is progressing steadily, with an expected additional capacity of 20 million tons, aiming for full production in the second half of 2026, and a target of 335 million to 345 million tons for 2026 iron ore production, an increase of approximately 5 million tons from 2025 [2] Group 3 - Rio Tinto's West Pilbara iron ore project is designed to compensate for resource depletion in the Pilbara region, with a planned annual capacity of 25 million tons, expected to be fully operational by June 2025, and production is anticipated to grow in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore resource globally, is set to ship its first batch of 200,000 tons by December 2025, with a target production of 5 to 10 million tons in 2026 [3] - Non-mainstream iron ore projects are also contributing to production increases, with the Onslow iron ore project expected to achieve stable production in early 2026, projecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 7 million tons [3] Group 4 - The steel market is currently in a traditional off-peak season, with weak downstream consumption expectations and low enthusiasm for winter storage among traders, which will suppress the upward trend of steel prices [4] - Low profit margins for steel mills are limiting the potential for increased pig iron output, leading to weak growth in iron ore consumption [4] - Port inventories are at historically high levels, and the total supply from the four major mining companies and non-mainstream miners is expected to increase year-on-year, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance in the iron ore market [4]