铁矿石产业链日报 2025/8/7 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 793.00 | -1.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 335,365 | -22928↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 18.5 | +1.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -4804 | +6732↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | ...

Report Title - Black Sector R & D Report: Iron Ore Monthly Report for August 2025 (dated July 31, 2025) [1][7] Core Viewpoint - The market game intensifies, and iron ore prices remain at a high level [1] Summary by Section 1. Iron Ore Market Data Review - Multiple charts show historical price trends of iron ore, including 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different ore types, and basis and spreads of futures contracts [9][15][17] 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Import quantity charts show the historical import volumes of iron ore from different regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of iron ore [30][31][36] - A table presents the supply - side data of major iron ore producers from 2020 to 2026E, including RIO, BHP, FMG, etc., along with their year - on - year changes in 2025 and 2026 [57] - Charts display the global shipping volumes of iron ore from different sources like non - Australia and Brazil, non - top four mines, and domestic refined powder production and inventory [62][69][74] Demand Side - Charts show relevant data reflecting iron ore demand, such as real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate, domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, and iron ore consumption in the steel industry (including domestic and overseas) [85][95][100] - Inventory - related charts show the inventory status of imported iron ore at ports, in trade, and the total inventory of the entire iron - element industrial chain [110][112] 3. Iron Ore Market Outlook - No specific content in the provided text for this part, but the section is named "Iron Ore Market Outlook" [116]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on Thursday, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. In terms of supply - demand, the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, while the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. Iron - water production remained above 2.4 million tons, and demand support still existed. Overall, due to the high linkage of the black series, the coking coal limit - down affected market sentiment, causing iron ore prices to decline under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were weakening downward, with the green bar expanding. The recommended operation is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position volume was 419,559 lots, a decrease of 32,551 lots. - The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 25.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,682 lots, a decrease of 604 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I were 3,600 lots, an increase of 200 lots. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 100 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.71 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 839 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 824 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 45 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.95 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.39, an increase of 0.07. - The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 32.009 million tons, an increase of 0.918 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.6306 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 105.95 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, an increase of 2 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 1,995, a decrease of 114. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.32 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, a decrease of 3.36 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.40%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.18%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.14%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.41%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2.83069 million tons, an increase of 35,920 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 115,700 tons, an increase of 2,230 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 24.47, a decrease of 0.16 compared with the previous period. - From July 21st to July 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - The iron ore port inventory in domestic ports, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the market anticipates that the China-US economic and trade talks will bring positive news; in terms of industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. For the I2509 contract, be cautious when chasing high prices. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it's advisable to buy call options opportunistically [7][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights Summary a. Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the futures price of the main iron ore contract was 802.5 (+17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 832 (+15) yuan/dry ton. - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 122000 tons week-on-week. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, with an increase of 122000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. - The arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 371400 tons. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The molten iron output decreased by 210 tons. The average daily molten iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to the same period last year. - The port inventory increased by 14170 tons. As of July 25, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons week-on-week and a decrease of 14.5226 million tons year-on-year. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons week-on-week. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from last week and an increase of 48.49 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, hitting the "pause button" on rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. Trump said he was abandoning the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that it should take the lead in resisting "involutionary" competition and strengthen restructuring and integration. The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. - Supply and demand aspect: The iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise, but the year-on-year decline widened; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons, so the demand support still exists. - Technical aspect: The iron ore I2509 contract is still in an upward channel, with the daily K-line moving average combination in a bullish arrangement; the MACD indicator shows that the upward momentum of DIFF and DEA has slowed down, and the red bars have shrunk. - Strategy suggestion: Considering the macro situation, the market expects positive news from the China-US economic and trade talks; in terms of the industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. Be cautious when chasing high prices for the I2509 contract. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the I2509 contract rose and then pulled back. It performed weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 25th, the price difference was 30 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. - This week, the iron ore warehouse receipts increased. On July 25, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3400 lots, a week-on-week increase of 400 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 25163 lots, an increase of 21618 lots compared to the previous week. - This week, the spot price increased. On July 25, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 832 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 25th, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [13][19][25]. 3. Industry Situation - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, an increase of 122000 tons; the iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 16.294 million tons, a decrease of 108900 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, an increase of 13500 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 9.226 million tons, an increase of 102100 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The iron ore port inventory increased. This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a decrease of 94300 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 63.0925 million tons, an increase of 88430 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 51.396 million tons, a decrease of 38630 tons; the trading ore inventory was 91.8357 million tons, a decrease of 9970 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a decrease of 150 tons; the inventory consumption ratio was 29.51 days, an increase of 0.22 days. - The available days of iron ore inventory for the sample steel mills increased this period. As of July 24, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for domestic large and medium-sized steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day. On July 24, the Baltic Dry Bulk Shipping Index BDI was 2258, a week-on-week increase of 206. - The iron ore import volume increased, and the mine capacity utilization rate was adjusted upward. According to customs data, in June 2025, China's iron ore and concentrate imports were 105.948 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68%; the average daily concentrate output was 406800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons; the inventory was 410000 tons, a decrease of 44500 tons. - The domestic iron ore concentrate output declined. In June 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. The iron concentrate output of 433 iron mine enterprises was 23.304 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 76200 tons, a decline of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decline of 8.0% [28][31][34][38][41]. 4. Downstream Situation - From January to June, the crude steel output decreased year-on-year. In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. In June, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 900000 tons, a decline of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 58.147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In June, China's steel imports were 470000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11000 tons, a decline of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative imports were 3.023 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%. - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron output decreased. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, the same as last week and an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points compared to last year. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to last year [44][47]. 5. Options Market - In the past two days, the ore price has pulled back from a high level, but the anti-involution expectation will continue to benefit the black series. Therefore, there is still a possibility of a rebound after the iron ore adjustment. It is recommended to buy call options opportunistically [50].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in global shipments and a decrease in port arrivals, while steel mills maintain high production levels and profitability, indicating a resilient demand despite seasonal trends [7]. Supply - Global shipments of iron ore increased to 31.09 million tons, up by 1.22 million tons week-on-week, while port arrivals decreased to 23.71 million tons, down by 2.91 million tons [5]. - Monthly national imports reached 105.948 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons compared to the previous month [5]. Demand - Daily iron water production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.46%, up by 0.31% [4]. - The profitability of steel mills stands at 60.17%, reflecting a 0.43% increase, indicating strong financial performance [4]. Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with total inventory at 137.9038 million tons, up by 51,700 tons week-on-week [6]. - The average daily dispatch volume from ports decreased to 3.1515 million tons, down by 75,900 tons [6]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory rose to 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 630,600 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain high production levels in July, averaging around 2.4 million tons per day, supported by improved steel mill profitability [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, which may influence supply-side dynamics [7]. - Short-term iron ore prices are anticipated to fluctuate, with recommendations for traders to gradually take profits on long positions and consider arbitrage strategies [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The mainstream positions increasing support the iron ore price to rise, but the adjustment of steel prices may affect the rebound space of iron ore prices. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 773 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume is 690,377 lots, up 21,689 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 31.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 5,148 lots, up 15,032 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 3,000 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 99.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.93 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines is 798 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 25 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.40, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 808 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil is 2,987.10 tons, down 7.80 tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,883.20 tons, up 347.70 tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,346.89 tons, down 139.01 tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,979.64 tons, up 61.07 tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,594.80 tons, up 781.80 tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.68 tons, down 0.72 tons; the operating rate is 62.83%, down 1.57%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 50.72 tons, down 1.59 tons. The BDI index is 1,783, up 120. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 US dollars/ton, up 0.48 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 tons, down 337 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.56%, down 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.43%, up 0.07%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.34%, up 4.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.45%, up 2.22% [2] Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,393.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 123.8 tons, with continuous inventory accumulation. From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,883.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 347.7 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,662.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 178.2 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,147.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 264.1 tons. The I2509 contract increased in position and rose on Wednesday. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the expiration date of the suspension of additional tariffs between the US and China, and the two sides' negotiations are in a "good situation", expecting talks in the next few weeks. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory in China changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued to decline slightly, but the molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macro - wise, Trump threatened to impose "very severe, about 100% tariffs" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot end within 50 days. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrivals increased, and the domestic port inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued a slight decline, but molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support. Currently, supported by favorable policies and steel mills' price - holding, the iron ore price is running strongly. However, steel mills' purchasing intention is general, with cautious inquiry and mainly for rigid demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are回调 at high levels, and the green bar is expanding. Operationally, trade in the short - term range of 775 - 750, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 767 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume is 668,688 hands, up 3,867 hands [2]. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 28.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 20,180 hands, up 4,019 hands [2]. - The I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,100 hands, unchanged [2]. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 98.9 dollars/ton, down 0.69 dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 818 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 30 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.60 dollars/ton, up 0.30 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.42, up 0.02 [2]. - The estimated import cost is 812 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - The weekly iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil are 29.871 million tons, down 78,000 tons; the weekly total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 28.832 million tons, up 3.477 million tons [2]. - The weekly iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 143.4689 million tons, down 1.3901 million tons; the weekly iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 89.7964 million tons, up 610,700 tons [2]. - The monthly iron ore imports are 105.948 million tons, up 7.818 million tons; the weekly available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days [2]. - The weekly daily output of 266 mines is 396,800 tons, down 7,200 tons; the weekly operating rate of 266 mines is 62.83%, down 1.57 percentage points [2]. - The weekly iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 507,200 tons, down 15,900 tons; the BDI index is 1,783, up 120 [2]. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 dollars/ton, up 0.85 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 dollars/ton, up 0.48 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.87%, down 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The monthly domestic crude steel output is 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.93%, down 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.36%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.17%, down 3.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.23%, down 0.48 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 29.871 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78,000 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.588 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 938,000 tons. Australia's shipments were 17.383 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 643,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 14.301 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 236,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.205 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.581 million tons [2]. - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 28.832 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.477 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 26.621 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.782 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 11.479 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.641 million tons [2].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a short-term price fluctuation with a tendency to strengthen, driven by seasonal supply declines, weak demand, and changing inventory levels [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons week-on-week [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons, with shipments to China at 14.537 million tons, down 3.231 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons [1] Demand Summary - Daily average pig iron production was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week [1] - The operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1] Inventory Summary - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily dispatch volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 36,100 tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The seasonal decline in iron ore shipments is evident, particularly from Australia and Brazil, while near-term arrivals have increased [1] - The decline in pig iron production is attributed to routine maintenance in some regions and weather conditions in Hebei [1] - The port arrivals fell short of expectations, leading to a decrease in port inventories and an increase in steel mills' imported ore stocks [1] - As July approaches, macroeconomic expectations are influencing the market, with a rebound in related commodities due to "anti-involution" trends [1] - The healthy profitability of steel mills and the absence of significant supply pressure suggest a short-term upward price trend for iron ore, with a need for risk control and attention to market sentiment and macroeconomic developments [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore" [1] Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - Last week, the policy side continued to emphasize anti - involution, and the supply - side expectations boosted market sentiment. Considering the good profit per ton of steel, raw material prices fluctuated and rebounded. From the fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment this period dropped to the lowest in two and a half months, mainly due to the end of the rush of mainstream mines, with declines in both Australia and Brazil; on the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly this period, slightly exceeding market expectations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the pig iron output, and there is a risk of decline in the north in August. It is expected to fluctuate between 85 - 95 US dollars in the near future, and cautious operation is recommended [10] Summary by Directory Part I: Fundamentals and Conclusions Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 7 - 18 yuan. As of July 4, the Platts 62% index closed at $95.7, up $1.3 week - on - week, equivalent to about 799 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.16. The optimal deliverable was NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 716 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at a discount to the spot. The 47 - port iron ore inventory in China increased week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of 47 ports was 14,485.9 tons, up 6 tons week - on - week, down 1,125 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,108 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may increase slightly in the next period [7] Supply - Shipment: The total global iron ore shipment this period was 2,994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons week - on - week. The shipment of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2,417.8 tons, a decrease of 369.3 tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment was 1,764.0 tons, a decrease of 145.1 tons week - on - week, and the shipment to China was 1,415.1 tons, a decrease of 282.2 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 224.3 tons week - on - week. - Arrival: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,535.5 tons, an increase of 122.0 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,412.0 tons, an increase of 194.8 tons week - on - week [8] Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased this week, with an average daily output of 240.85 tons/day, a decrease of 1.44 tons/day from last week, an increase of 10.34 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.53 tons/day year - on - year. There were 3 new blast furnace restart and 7 blast furnace overhauls this period. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may continue to decline in the next period. As of July 4, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 2,907 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 233 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 243 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China was about 3,293 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,162 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 223 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 92 yuan [9] Part II: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 4, the optimal deliverable was NM powder with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was PB powder with a converted warehouse receipt of about 749 yuan/ton [15] Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 4, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 25.5 (- 1.5) [18] Premium Index - As of July 4, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1635 (+ 0.0085); the premium index of 65% pellet was 13.15 (+ 0.15) [28] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory - As of July 4, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,230 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.02%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder ore was 8 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.41%; the inventory survey of imported ore was 19 days, unchanged from the previous week [33] 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption - As of July 4, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8,918.6 tons, an increase of 71.10 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.80%; the daily consumption of imported ore was 300.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.15%; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of imported ore was 29.7 days, an increase of 0.28 days from the previous week, an increase of 0.95% [36] Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - The data shows the historical trends of port total inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 45 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) [39] Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 4, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,513 tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week, an increase of 0.65%; the inventory of imported port pellet ore was 487 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,228 tons, an increase of 45 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.83%; the inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,650 tons, a decrease of 107 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.00% [42] Shipment Volume - The data shows the historical shipment volume data from 2020 - 2025 [45] Iron Ore Seaborne Volume - The data shows the historical seaborne volume data of iron ore from 2022 - 2025, including the seaborne volume from Australia to China, Brazil to China, and non - mainstream countries to China [48] Iron Ore Import Volume - The data shows the historical import volume data of iron ore from 2020 - 2025, including the import volume from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [53] Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 4, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 366 tons, a decrease of 191 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 34.34%; the shipment volume of BHP was 518 tons, a decrease of 37 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 6.67%; the shipment volume of Vale was 502 tons, a decrease of 144 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 22.26%; the shipment volume of FMG was 330 tons, an increase of 14 tons from the previous week, an increase of 4.39%; the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,716 tons, a decrease of 358 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 17.27% [71] Iron Ore Arrival Volume - As of July 4, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,484 tons, an increase of 121 tons from the previous week, an increase of 5.1%; the arrival volume at northern ports was 1,412 tons, an increase of 195 tons from the previous week, an increase of 16.0% [78] Domestic Ore Production - The data shows the historical production data of domestic ore from 2017 - 2025 [83] Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical daily average pig iron output data from 2016 - 2025, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. In 2025, compared with 2024, the daily average pig iron output increased by 1.71%, 1.71%, 3.62%, 1.32%, - 2.65% respectively [90] Global Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 - 2025 [93] Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 [98]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing fluctuations, with current spot prices for PB powder at 707 CNY/ton and super special powder at 600 CNY/ton [1] - As of July 1, 2025, various ports in China show different pricing for iron ore, with prices ranging from 650 CNY/ton to 762 CNY/ton depending on the type and origin of the ore [1] - The futures market closed at 708.5 CNY/ton on July 1, with a decline of 1.32%, indicating a volatile trading environment [1] Group 2 - On June 30, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in China reached 896,000 tons, reflecting a 5.29% decrease compared to the previous period [3] - The total iron ore arrival at 47 ports in China from June 23 to June 29 was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons from the prior week [3] - The report from Baocun Futures suggests that while iron ore demand shows some resilience, the overall market sentiment is improving, but supply remains high, leading to a forecast of continued price fluctuations [4]