投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 12 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 节前情绪弱稳，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.23%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 节前供需双弱局面未变，螺纹钢基本面矛盾持续累积，库存大幅增加， 钢价继续承压运行，相对利好的是政策预期与成本支撑，预计走势延续 弱势寻底态势，关注假期累库情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.31%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供应压力未退，而需求持续走弱，基本面延续弱势运行，热卷 价格承压偏弱运行，关注需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For螺纹、热卷**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, with low output and demand. Inventory is expected to increase rapidly from a low level, and the market's demand expectation for next year is relatively weak. The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range, showing a downward trend. However, due to the low current valuation, the downside space is limited [2]. - **For铁矿石**: The market is still in the off - season, and the iron - making water production is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses more on the spring consumption demand. The global shipment has rebounded from a low level, but is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price is under pressure to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. 螺纹、热卷** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range and is approaching the previous low, with potential support. But it is considered to be in a downward trend without a reversal signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2]. **II. 铁矿石** - **Demand**: The production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses on spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have rebounded from a low level but are expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is under pressure to decline, and on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, potentially forming a downward effective breakout [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions with a light position [4]. **III. Industry News** - As of the week ending February 11, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of key steel products in China decreased by 429,100 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 266,200 tons, the social inventory increased by 533,100 tons, the total inventory increased by 799,300 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 635,300 tons [6]. - On February 11, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was $89.6 per ton, and all 64,000 tons were sold at a price of $95.1 per ton (ex - tax) [6].

铁矿石产业链日报 2026/2/3 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 777.50 | -5.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 518,849 | -1835↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17.5 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -478 | -5020↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 2 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 钢材：春节因素供需双弱，钢价或将窄幅震荡 （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 需求：2025年全国固定资产投资同比下降3.8%，较1-11月降幅扩大1.2个百分点。其中制造业投资同比 增长0.6%，较1-11月增幅收窄1.3个百分点；基础设施投资同比下降2.2%，较1-11月降幅扩大1.1个百分 点；房地产开发投资比上年下降17.2%，较1-11月降幅扩大1.3个百分点。投资增速延续全面下行态势， 钢材需求表现低迷。1月螺纹周均表需182万吨，环比12月回落12%；1月热卷周均表需311万吨，环比12 月回升1%。1月钢材需求螺纹弱热卷强，基本符合季节性特征。2月份受春节长假影响，钢材市场需求 将趋近于停滞。 供应：2025年我国粗钢产量9.61亿吨，同比减少4422万吨，降幅4.4%；2025年我国生铁产量8.36亿吨， 同比减少2586万吨，降幅3%。1月份产量略有回升，铁水产量回升0.55万吨，五大材产量回升7.99万 吨，其中螺纹产量回升11.61万吨，热卷产量回升4.7万吨。2月份电炉钢厂逐步放 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月29日08时05分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 投资咨询系列报告 需求方面，上周五大钢材品种整体产量基本维持不变 ，表观需求环比回落，库存增加。目前市场仍处于消费淡季，铁水产量大概率仍将沿着季节性 趋势回落，上周 247 家样本钢厂铁水产量基本维持不变 。由于今年春节较晚，节前的补库需求到来时间也会晚于往年 ，钢材表观需求的好转或主要 因年末抢工期所致，钢材以及铁水产量暂时不会大幅上升 ，但回落的空间也不大。供应端，全球发运回落，后期受南半球季节性因素的影响，发运 预计将 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 786.50 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 566,469 | -8780↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -14751 | -3102↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,300.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.55 | +0.36↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 846 | +2↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 841 | 0.00 | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 751 | 0.00 I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 55 | -3↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 103.20 | -0. ...

Group 1 - The current winter season has led to a significant decline in construction activities in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, particularly in northern regions due to low temperatures and frequent rain and snow, resulting in a traditional off-peak season for construction steel consumption [1] - Market focus is on the winter storage process, with some steel mills in Northeast and North China implementing winter storage policies, although traders generally have a pessimistic outlook on future consumption, leading to low enthusiasm for winter storage [1] - As of January 9, 247 steel mills reported a total pig iron output of 2.295 million tons, marking a three-week consecutive increase, but overall profits for steel mills remain low, particularly for hot-rolled coils, which are in a loss-making state, limiting the potential for increased pig iron output [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at 47 national ports reached 170.44 million tons, the highest seasonal level in recent years, while global major mining companies are steadily releasing production capacity [2] - BHP's iron ore production in Western Australia reached a record 257 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year, with production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year set between 251 million and 262 million tons, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [2] - Vale's S11D project expansion is progressing steadily, with an expected additional capacity of 20 million tons, aiming for full production in the second half of 2026, and a target of 335 million to 345 million tons for 2026 iron ore production, an increase of approximately 5 million tons from 2025 [2] Group 3 - Rio Tinto's West Pilbara iron ore project is designed to compensate for resource depletion in the Pilbara region, with a planned annual capacity of 25 million tons, expected to be fully operational by June 2025, and production is anticipated to grow in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore resource globally, is set to ship its first batch of 200,000 tons by December 2025, with a target production of 5 to 10 million tons in 2026 [3] - Non-mainstream iron ore projects are also contributing to production increases, with the Onslow iron ore project expected to achieve stable production in early 2026, projecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 7 million tons [3] Group 4 - The steel market is currently in a traditional off-peak season, with weak downstream consumption expectations and low enthusiasm for winter storage among traders, which will suppress the upward trend of steel prices [4] - Low profit margins for steel mills are limiting the potential for increased pig iron output, leading to weak growth in iron ore consumption [4] - Port inventories are at historically high levels, and the total supply from the four major mining companies and non-mainstream miners is expected to increase year-on-year, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance in the iron ore market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the demand aspect, due to environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons. Although the profit margin of steel mills improved slightly, it remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it cannot change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [3][45]. - In the supply aspect, global iron ore supply was strong in December, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and the arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity [3][45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [3][45][47]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In December, the iron ore market first declined and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the disappointment of policy expectations and the continuous reduction of hot metal production, the price of the main contract quickly fell after approaching the pressure level of 800 yuan/ton. Subsequently, supported by the low - level hot metal output, the resilience of steel exports, and the inventory replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventories, the price rebounded and once exceeded 800 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the peak shipping season. The global shipping volume increased to 36.77 million tons month - on - month, with Australia and Brazil contributing an increase of 2.44 million tons. The arrival volume was 26.01 million tons, at a historical high. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output was 2.28 million tons, remaining flat month - on - month but at a historical low. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly within the month, but the off - season and major maintenance restricted the resumption of production. In terms of inventory, port inventories accumulated to 158.5866 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons month - on - month. Although the equity ore inventory of steel mills was at a low level, short - term inventory replenishment was limited [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Mill Start - up Contraction, Focus on Inventory Replenishment Rhythm Before the Festival - In December, domestic steel mills' production showed an overall contraction trend, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions, year - end concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was about 2.28 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70,000 tons month - on - month, at a historically low level for the same period. The weekly average output of five major steel products decreased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, with a significant reduction in construction steel such as rebar, reflecting the characteristic of structural supply contraction [10]. - The decline in production was mainly due to three factors: continuous production restrictions under the constraints of autumn and winter environmental protection policies, the entry of steel mills into the concentrated maintenance period after high - yield throughout the year, and the traditional off - season of terminal demand, with weak orders in industries such as construction and automobiles, and the pressure of social inventories leading steel mills to actively adjust production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [10]. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills' production is expected to remain in a "weak and stable" state. Constrained by the traditional off - season of terminal demand and year - end concentrated maintenance, hot metal output is unlikely to increase significantly and may continue to fluctuate around the daily level of 2.25 million tons. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore, but due to weak terminal demand, the intensity of replenishment may be limited, and it is difficult to change the current pattern of loose supply [11]. 2.2 End - of - Year Rush in Overseas Ore Shipments - In December, global iron ore supply was strong. Major mines concentrated on shipping at the end of the year, pushing the global iron ore shipment volume to a new high for the year. The total global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.126 million tons month - on - month to 36.771 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. Australia and Brazil shipped a total of 30.596 million tons, an increase of 2.448 million tons month - on - month. Australia's shipment volume was 21.137 million tons, an increase of 1.631 million tons month - on - month, and the iron ore shipped to China increased by 1.73 million tons to 18.676 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume also increased by 818,000 tons month - on - month to 9.459 million tons [18]. - The high shipment volume also raised the expectation of subsequent arrivals. Although the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China decreased slightly by 453,000 tons month - on - month to 26.014 million tons last month, it remained at a historically high level for the same period. According to the shipping rhythm, the arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on shipments in the first quarter [19]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventories - In December, iron ore port inventories continued to accumulate. The inventory at the 45 ports increased by 3.4603 million tons month - on - month to 158.5866 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. The main reason for the inventory accumulation was the relatively high arrival volume during the shipping peak season, combined with the low port clearance volume during the year - end off - season. Although the average daily port clearance volume increased slightly, it was difficult to offset the arrival pressure [33]. - In terms of structure, the inventory of trade ore increased to 103.6761 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore increased by 4.11 million tons month - on - month to 69.4126 million tons, while the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 1.65 million tons to 56.6956 million tons. Lump ore, pellets, and fines accumulated 1.08 million tons, 610,000 tons, and 2.99 million tons respectively. The high port inventory reflects the phased supply - demand relaxation [33]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In December, steel mills' iron ore inventories remained at a low level. As of the end of the month, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a slight increase of 1.3624 million tons month - on - month, still at a historically low level for the same period. In the context of weak off - season demand and continuous pressure on profits, steel mills generally adopted a low - inventory strategy to control capital occupation and procurement risks [37]. - The proportion of in - plant inventory in steel mills was not high, and the average available days of iron ore remained at about 31 days, in a relatively low normal range, reflecting that steel mills were cautious about the subsequent demand recovery and their procurement behavior was mainly on - demand, lacking the motivation for large - scale inventory building. Although there was a rigid demand for inventory replenishment at the end of the year, due to weak terminal orders, poor sales of finished products, and limited profit repair space, the actual intensity of inventory replenishment was relatively moderate [37]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In December, domestic mine production showed a seasonal decline at the end of the year. The iron concentrate output of 186 mining enterprises was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month and 30,000 tons year - on - year; the output of 126 mining enterprises was 371,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons month - on - month and 13,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of the year, some mines completed their annual production and sales targets, and more mines reduced or stopped production. In terms of regions, the output of major production areas such as North China, Northeast China, and East China all declined to varying degrees [41]. - From January to November 2025, China's iron ore production totaled 923.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The cumulative production in the main production areas of Hebei and Liaoning was 407.72 million tons and 160.5 million tons respectively, with a decline of 11% and 4% respectively, which were the main sources of the iron ore reduction. The production in Sichuan increased by 12% year - on - year to 96.32 million tons [41]. 2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In December, shipping freight rates generally declined. As of December 31, the freight rate for the route from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao was reported at $8.59/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $3.42/ton and a year - on - year increase of $2.17/ton, with a growth rate of 34%; the freight rate for the route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was reported at $22.66/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $2.37/ton and a year - on - year increase of $5.47/ton, with a growth rate of 32% [44]. - In 2025, iron ore shipping freight rates increased significantly. At the beginning of the year, affected by the contraction of global shipping trade volume and high port inventories in China, market sentiment was low, and freight rates were at a low level. With the seasonal recovery of demand, freight rates started to rebound fluctuatingly. In the second half of the year, driven by the strong export of Brazilian iron ore and the significant increase in China's import demand, shipping freight rates continued to strengthen [44]. 3. Market Outlook - Demand side: Affected by environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons, steel production decreased, and the reduction in construction steel was particularly prominent. The profit margin of steel mills improved slightly but remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [45]. - Supply side: In December, global iron ore supply was strong, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and mainstream mines such as Rio Tinto and Vale, as well as non - mainstream regions, all actively rushed to ship. The arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity. High port inventories suppress the willingness to purchase, but low steel mill inventories also limit the downward space of ore prices [45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [45][47].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The I2605 contract fluctuated strongly on Monday. In terms of macro, on January 4th, US President Trump threatened Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, the arrival volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. Overall, the ports are in a trend of inventory accumulation, while the in - plant inventory is at a medium - low level, and there is still an expectation of stockpiling in the long term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are sorted above the 0 axis. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 797 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan; the position volume was 618,775 lots, up 25,428 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 16,904 lots, up 1,762 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 2,000 lots, up 700 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.75 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.41 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 854 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port was 756 yuan/dry ton. The price of 60.5% Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 856 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The I main contract basis (Macfayden powder dry ton - main contract) was 59 yuan, down 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 105.50 US dollars/ton (previous day), down 3 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 3.01, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 852 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,213.70 million tons, down 463.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,824.70 million tons, up 96.90 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 16,721.79 million tons, up 101.83 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,946.54 million tons, up 86.35 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,054.00 million tons, down 77.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.56 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 0%, down 58.66%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 0 million tons, down 45.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,882, up 5. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.21 US dollars/ton, down 1.40 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.46 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 78.96%, up 0.66%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.28%, up 0.32%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,987 million tons, down 213 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 14.57%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 13.88%, up 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.14%, down 0.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 17.72%, up 1.46% [2]. Industry News - From December 29, 2025 to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,213.7 million tons, down 463.4 million tons. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,742.7 million tons, down 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,824.7 million tons, up 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,756.4 million tons, up 155.0 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,512.9 million tons, up 182.3 million tons [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The I2605 contract fluctuated strongly on Monday. The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipment volume decreased, the arrival volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. The ports showed a trend of inventory accumulation, the in - plant inventory was at a medium - low level, and there was still an expectation of stockpiling in the long term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were sorted above the 0 axis. It was recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner with limited upside and downside space. The upward space of the ore price is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. The main factors to watch in the future are the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of hot metal production [11][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In December, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 3,525.68 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 228.93 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In January, it is expected that the arrivals will continue to increase, but the shipments will decline month-on-month as it turns to the traditional off-season for mine shipments [11][13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in December was 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. With the end of some blast furnace overhauls, the hot metal production may increase slightly [11][13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were at a high level in the same period of history, while steel mills' imported ore inventories were at a low level in the same period, with some restocking demand [11][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of December, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 117 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 82 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 9.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 137 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -17.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **In - furnace Proportion and Scrap Steel**: At the end of December, the pellet in - furnace proportion was 14.69%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore in - furnace proportion was 11.98%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The sinter in - furnace proportion was 73.33%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of December, the profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 351.56 million tons, an increase of 49.21 million tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1,356.04 million tons, an increase of 71.61 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 2,144.66 million tons, an increase of 165.29 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 6,941.26 million tons, an increase of 633.8 million tons, and the Brazilian ore port inventory was 5,669.56 million tons, a decrease of 317.47 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8,860.19 million tons, a decrease of 82.29 million tons [35][41][43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In December, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 746.83 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 142.20 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 575.30 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.90 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 602.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.40 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 392.35 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.07 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In December, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1,900.41 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 84.50 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of December, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 55.53%, a decrease of 5.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 43.39 million tons, a decrease of 4.09 million tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The estimated domestic hot metal production in December was 7,074.96 million tons, with a daily average of 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. At the end of December, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a decrease of 3.04 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In December, the weekly average of 45 - port iron ore daily ore removal volume was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of December 31, the calculated basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 52.61 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.25% [74].