投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月17日08时11分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价均已经跌破了下方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方 有布林带下轨的支撑，短线窄幅震荡之后，面临方向选择。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。价格处于低位，不建议做空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3053 7 0.23% 19 0.63% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3256 2 0.06% 11 0.34% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3190 -10 -0.31% 0 0 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 ...

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a slight decline, with PB powder port spot prices at 775 CNY/ton and super special powder at 675 CNY/ton [1] - On November 11, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 763.0 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.20%, reaching a high of 767.0 CNY/ton and a low of 759.0 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 262,391 contracts [1] Group 2 - CSN, a Brazilian steel and mining group, reported third-quarter iron ore production of 11.928 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with sales reaching 12.396 million tons, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year [3] - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.626 million tons, an increase of 458,000 tons from the previous period, indicating a slight accumulation trend, with current inventory levels slightly below the median for the second half of the year [3] Group 3 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures research report, global iron ore shipments have decreased compared to the previous period but remain slightly above last year's levels, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining [4] - Domestic arrivals have significantly decreased but are still at high levels compared to the same period last year, while steel demand has weakened during the off-season, leading to increased losses for steel mills and continued production cuts [4] - The macroeconomic factors affecting the market are weakening, and the market is beginning to reflect the reality of marginal easing in iron ore, with expectations of a primarily fluctuating trend in iron ore prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroeconomically, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th, and the federal government's "shutdown" will set a record. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The domestic port inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. Coupled with the weak steel market squeezing furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a low level. The operation suggestion is to short on rebounds and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 776.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 544,659 lots, down 3,095 lots [2]. - The price difference between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 22 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 22,121 lots, down 8,273 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,000.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.40 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 64 yuan, down 6 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.60 US dollars/ton, down 1.25 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.23, up 0.03 [2]. - The estimated import cost was 853 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,213.80 million tons, down 174.50 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 3,314.10 million tons, up 1,229.80 million tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,272.93 million tons, up 163.44 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,849.86 million tons, down 229.33 million tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23.00 days, up 4 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.35 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.97%, up 0.47% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 47.75 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the BDI index was 1,958.00, up 13.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.99 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.485 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.33%, down 0.05%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.21%, down 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 16.53%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 14.55%, down 0.93% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,213.8 million tons, a decrease of 174.5 million tons compared with the previous period. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,759.2 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 million tons, a decrease of 77.5 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3,314.1 million tons, an increase of 1,229.8 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3,218.4 million tons, an increase of 1,189.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,585.9 million tons, an increase of 490.0 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to decline in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions in the rebar industry are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, the inventory has increased significantly, and the price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore turned weak and declined, with a daily decline of 2.07%, and both the volume and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore is performing well, which supports the price of iron ore. However, the supply of iron ore is high, and the resilience of demand is weakening. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a high-level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Among them, domestic sales were 89,877 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 84,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [6]. - From January to September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the new car sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.1% of the total new car sales. From January to September, automobile exports were 4.95 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.758 million, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%. From the perspective of the consumer terminal, from January to September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high - speed growth of 24.4%, and the retail penetration rate in September reached 57.8% [7]. - The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2025 will be about 1.75 billion tons, the same as in 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026 to reach 1.772 billion tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of 61.5% PB powder, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index also decreased, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, and the ocean freight increased slightly [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore futures all declined. The decline rates were 0.81%, 0.70%, and 2.07% respectively. The trading volume of rebar and hot-rolled coil plate decreased, while that of iron ore increased. The open interest of all three increased [11]. Relevant Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory changes of steel and iron ore (including rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore in ports and at steel mills), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operation rate, and profitability) [13][20][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. The production of construction steel mills is weak, and the weekly output decreased by 36,200 tons. The supply has shrunk to a relatively low level, but the space for production reduction during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect is not strong. The demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. Weak demand will continue to suppress the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner under the game of multiple and short factors [35]. - For hot-rolled coil plate, the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output decreased by 14,000 tons, but it is still at a high level within the year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large. The demand during the holiday is weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons. Although the production of cold-rolled products, the main downstream, remains at a high level, there are concerns about the demand for hot-rolled coil. The price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly [35]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand have changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remains at a high level. The demand for iron ore is performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the resilience is expected to weaken. The arrival at domestic ports continues to rise, and the overseas miners' shipments decline slightly, both maintaining high levels within the year. The supply pressure of iron ore increases. It is expected that the price of iron ore will maintain a high-level volatile operation [36].

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report Core View - The negotiation between Sinomine Group and BHP may increase market risk aversion, and iron ore prices are strongly supported at the bottom. They are expected to consolidate at high levels in the near future. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand, which could boost iron ore prices if it recovers quickly [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 10, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated upward, opened higher and then oscillated, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The main contract prices of other steel products also had different changes. For example, RB2601 closed at 3103 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; HC2601 closed at 3285 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; SS2512 closed at 12805 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [5][7] - In the spot market, on October 10, the main iron ore foreign market quotes rose by $1.5/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main-grade iron ore at Qingdao Port rose by 5 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to fall, showing a potential golden cross. The green bars of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.2 Outlook - There are reports that Sinomine Group has suspended purchasing imported iron ore produced by BHP priced in US dollars, and there are rumors that BHP has agreed to fulfill long - term contracts priced in RMB, but the news is unconfirmed, bringing some support to iron ore prices [10] - In terms of fundamentals, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased in September, possibly due to end - of - quarter volume surges. Considering the uncertainty of the negotiation results and the regular decline after the end of the volume surge, shipments and arrivals are expected to decline in October [11] - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons. Given the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the growth space of output is limited, and it may oscillate at around 2.4 million tons in the short term [11] - In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their restocking efforts before the holiday, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow. It is expected to gradually decline after the holiday, but the decline may not be significant in the short term due to the uncertainty of the negotiation between Sinomine Group and BHP [11] 3.2 Industry News - On the 10th, the Israeli government approved a cease - fire agreement in Gaza, which will end the war, release Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip [12] - Starting from October 14, 2025, the US will impose additional port service fees on Chinese - owned or - operated ships, Chinese - flagged ships, and Chinese - built ships. In response, China will collect special port fees on relevant US ships starting from the same date [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industries, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the main port iron ore trading volume, the steel mill iron ore inventory available days, the imported sintered powder ore inventory, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the sample steel mill tax - free pig iron cost, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][18][22][24][26][29][34][38][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. Macroscopically, most Fed officials indicated that further policy easing in 2025 might be appropriate, with a few supporting no rate - cut in September. In terms of supply - demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased this period while arrivals increased, and domestic port inventories turned from decreasing to increasing. Due to the holiday, downstream steel demand weakened and inventories increased. Overall, the expectation of blast furnace复产 by steel mills after the holiday and the expectation of continued Fed rate - cuts may support the iron ore price to run strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels with an enlarged red column. The operation suggestion is to expect a volatile and upward trend with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 790.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the position volume was 459,565 lots, up 12,200 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 19.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 8,651 lots, up 6,698 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 500.00 lots, up 500.00 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.9 dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 0.77 dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 849 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 766 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 46 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.20 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore was 3.30, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 852 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,279.00 million tons, down 196.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 2,775.80 million tons, up 172.10 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,550.68 million tons, up 169.00 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,736.39 million tons, up 426.96 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,522.00 million tons, up 60.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 26.00 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.04 million tons, down 0.77 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.28%, down 0.95%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 43.27 million tons, up 5.60 million tons. The BDI index was 1,963.00, up 16.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.46 dollars/ton (unchanged), and from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.34 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 84.27%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.63%, down 0.25%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 14.68%, up 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.10%, up 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.42%, down 1.96%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.02%, down 1.79% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,279.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 196.4 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,825.9 million tons, with Australian shipments at 1,979.9 million tons (down 48.1 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,661.2 million tons, down 110.2 million tons) and Brazilian shipments at 846.0 million tons (up 9.9 million tons). The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,775.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 172.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,608.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 248.2 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,451.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 450.2 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. In the short - term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. The positive market sentiment after the China - US leaders' call also has a positive impact on the ore price. Further observation of downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed is needed [11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. Australia and Brazil's total iron ore shipment was 29.778 million tons, an increase of 6.482 million tons. Australia's shipment was 20.846 million tons, an increase of 2.622 million tons, with 18.362 million tons shipped to China, an increase of 3.049 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.932 million tons, an increase of 3.86 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.923 million tons, a decrease of 1.806 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 23.623 million tons, a decrease of 0.857 million tons [11][13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points [11][13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 0.7444 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.5103 million tons, an increase of 0.0664 million tons [11][13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 18.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 129 yuan/ton, a change of + 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 173 yuan/ton, a change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 28.0 yuan/ton, a change of + 10.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.05%, a change of - 0.25 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a change of + 0.4 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.67%, a change of - 0.16 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2285 yuan/ton, with no change; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2130 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a change of - 1.3 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was - 14.01 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: No specific data analysis on freight is provided in the summary part, only relevant charts are shown. 3.3. Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 138.0108 million tons, a change of - 0.4839 million tons. The pellet inventory was 291,240 tons, a change of + 3840 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.02666 million tons, a change of - 0.05196 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 1.67176 million tons, a change of + 0.04523 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 5.77557 million tons, a change of - 0.03094 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.26652 million tons, a change of + 0.0383 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9.30943 million tons, an increase of 0.31638 million tons from last week [46]. 3.4. Supply Side - Overseas Shipment: The latest 19 - port data shows that Australia's shipment to China was 17.367 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.445 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.693 million tons, an increase of 3.818 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment to China was 6.372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.388 million tons. BHP's shipment to China was 4.798 million tons, an increase of 0.272 million tons. Vale's shipment was 6.112 million tons, an increase of 2.591 million tons. FMG's shipment to China was 3.981 million tons, an increase of 0.715 million tons [51][54][57]. - Arrival and Import: The latest 45 - port arrival volume was 23.623 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.857 million tons. In July, China's non - Australia and Brazil iron ore imports were 17.5216 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1066 million tons [60]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%, a change of + 0.42 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate powder output of domestic mines was 48,140 tons, a change of + 330 tons [66]. 3.5. Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points [71]. - Ore Clearance and Consumption: The 45 - port iron ore daily average clearance volume was 3.3917 million tons, a change of + 0.0789 million tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore daily consumption was 2.9745 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.008 million tons [74]. 3.6. Basis As of September 19, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.16 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.85% [79].

东海期货：市场再出限产传闻，成材产量小幅回落。上周铁水产量回升至240万吨上方，短期继续上涨 空间也有限。供应方面，本周全球铁矿石发运量环比回升816.9万吨，到港量环比回落85.7万吨，供应整 体维持高位。铁矿石港口库存也小幅下降63万吨。铁矿石价格仍以区间震荡思路对待。 据统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存总量13801.08万吨，环比下降48.39万吨；日均疏港量339.17万吨，增 7.89万吨；在港船舶数量101条，增1条；全国47个港口进口铁矿库存总量14381.68万吨，环比下降74.44 万吨；日均疏港量351.03万吨，增6.64万吨。 9月18日，中国钢铁工业协会铁矿石工作委员会在北京组织召开铁矿石工作会议，分析当前铁矿石市场 形势，研究近期主要工作，围绕北京铁矿石交易中心即将推出的进口铁矿石港口现货价格指数进行了安 排部署。国内钢铁生产企业和铁矿石贸易企业铁矿石采购业务负责人参加会议。 机构观点 正信期货：昨日五大材产量下滑幅度较小，夜盘矿价震荡偏强。本周澳巴发运回升，到港继续走低，近 端供应环比收紧；需求方面，受唐山限产结束影响，铁水产量大幅回升，铁矿需求增加明显；库存来 看，疏港量大幅增 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macroeconomically, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the US economy is slowing, making short - term interest rate cuts a possible policy option. In terms of supply - demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, arrivals increased, and domestic port inventories declined; hot metal and key steel mills' crude steel daily output decreased. Overall, the short - term market is mixed, the position of the September contract continues to shrink as it approaches delivery, and the market may enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the position was 335,365 lots, down 22,928 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 18.5 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 4,804 lots, up 6,732 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3,900 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at $102.2/ton at 15:00, up $0.40 [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 829 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 717 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 36 yuan, down 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was $101.20/ton, down $0.45. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fines was 3.32, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,994, up 73. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.87/ton, up $0.23; from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.15/ton, up $0.50 [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.43%, down 3.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.90%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.76%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.19%, down 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sintering powder of 114 steel mills was 2,756.28 million tons, a decrease of 74.41 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintering powder was 116.14 million tons, an increase of 0.44 million tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.73, a decrease of 0.74 from the previous period. In July, China imported 10,462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 132.5 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; from January to July, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 69,656.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [2] Key Focus - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization [2]

Report Title - Black Sector R & D Report: Iron Ore Monthly Report for August 2025 (dated July 31, 2025) [1][7] Core Viewpoint - The market game intensifies, and iron ore prices remain at a high level [1] Summary by Section 1. Iron Ore Market Data Review - Multiple charts show historical price trends of iron ore, including 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different ore types, and basis and spreads of futures contracts [9][15][17] 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Import quantity charts show the historical import volumes of iron ore from different regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of iron ore [30][31][36] - A table presents the supply - side data of major iron ore producers from 2020 to 2026E, including RIO, BHP, FMG, etc., along with their year - on - year changes in 2025 and 2026 [57] - Charts display the global shipping volumes of iron ore from different sources like non - Australia and Brazil, non - top four mines, and domestic refined powder production and inventory [62][69][74] Demand Side - Charts show relevant data reflecting iron ore demand, such as real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate, domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, and iron ore consumption in the steel industry (including domestic and overseas) [85][95][100] - Inventory - related charts show the inventory status of imported iron ore at ports, in trade, and the total inventory of the entire iron - element industrial chain [110][112] 3. Iron Ore Market Outlook - No specific content in the provided text for this part, but the section is named "Iron Ore Market Outlook" [116]