| 贵金属日评20250728:美欧达成关税贸易协议,美日达成关税协议提高日本央行加息预期 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-24 | 收盘价 | 777.32 | 778.74 | 781.70 | -4. 38 | -1. 42 | | | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 190255.00 | -25, 933.00 | 216188.00 | -140, 962. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 213456.00 | 211239.00 | 211851.00 | -1, 605. 00 | 612. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358. 00 | 28857.00 | 1, 401. 00 | 30258.00 | 900. 00 | 上海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The overall view is that the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate weakly. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation difference, a neutral Sino-US interest rate difference, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. The outlook suggests that the US dollar index is facing dual impacts of repeated inflation data and policy uncertainty, with a short-term weak trend. The RMB is supported by export resilience and flexible policy adjustments, and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15–7.20. It is recommended to maintain a neutral and flexible allocation [30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with significantly higher volatility on the Put side than on the Call side. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY [4]. - The term structure data shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the Sino-US interest rate difference in different periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter-cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has narrowed [10]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - The Fed has priced in a 65bp interest rate cut by 2025, and the pricing of US interest rate cuts has rebounded. The TGA account had a balance of $334.5 billion on June 25 (previous value of $383.8 billion, $120.7 billion/month), and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $210.8 billion. On June 24, Powell stated that there are multiple possibilities for the future monetary policy path [17]. - The US economic situation shows mixed employment, stable inflation below expectations, and marginal economic decline. Fiscal spending has declined, the economic sentiment in June has been differentiated, and retail sales in May have been under pressure [19]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations between the US and 15 key countries and regions, there is a differentiated pattern. As the deadline for Trump's "reciprocal tariff" 90-day suspension period (July 9) approaches, most negotiations have not made breakthroughs. The US government's attitude towards extension is inconsistent, and the subsequent progress needs continuous attention [20]. Event: The "Big and Beautiful" Bill - The bill consists of six parts and is expected to increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 - 2034. Trump requires the bill to be passed before Independence Day. The US Senate passed the bill on July 1, and it has been submitted to the House of Representatives [24]. Macro: Chinese Economy - The economic structure in China showed increased pressure in May. The June national PMI was 49.7, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 and a year-on-year increase of 0. The production volume increased by 0.3 to 51, and new orders increased by 0.4 to 49.5. Different industries showed different trends [25][27].

5月8日，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国政府同意在进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出 让步，以换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。英国政府发布官方声明称，英国汽车出口至美国的关税 将从27.5%降至10%，钢铁和铝关税从25%降至零。这一关税优惠将适用于10万辆英国汽车，几乎覆盖 去年英国对美出口的全部数量。（央视新闻） 就美国对部分英国汽车加征关税降至10%，日本首相石破茂5月11日表示，虽然这是一种模式，但日本 寻求撤销加征汽车关税，并非降到这一百分比即可。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows overseas Fed maintaining interest rates and UK - US tariff trade agreement, while domestically, there will be Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks and central bank measures to stabilize the property market. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased, but April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates are slightly up, and hot metal production remains high. Technically, the iron ore 2509 contract shows a bearish pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of May 9, the iron ore main contract futures price was 696 (-7.5) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 (-7) yuan/dry ton. - The total Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased by 218000 tons this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.184 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons. - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 45200 tons. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons; at 45 ports, 24.497 million tons; and at the six northern ports, 13.347 million tons. - Hot metal production increased by 220 tons, with a daily average of 2.4564 million tons. - Port inventory decreased by 83000 tons. As of May 9, 2025, the inventory at 47 ports was 147.64 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.5898 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, up 2.59 percentage points week - on - week and 6.92 percentage points year - on - year [6]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks will be held, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market. - Supply and demand: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventory decreased. However, April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates were slightly up, and hot metal production remained high. - Technical: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed DIFF and DEA below the 0 - axis. - Strategy: It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures prices fluctuated weakly this week. The I2509 contract was stronger than the I2601 contract, with a spread of 26 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Iron ore warehouse receipts remained flat this week, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 3200 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 7604 lots, an increase of 7823 lots from last week. - Spot prices declined this week. On May 9, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, spot prices were stronger than futures prices, with a basis of 103 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [14][22][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The total arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons, and the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons. - The utilization rate of mine production capacity decreased, and the BDI index decreased. As of April 25, the utilization rate of 266 mines was 63.06%, and the inventory was 65260 tons. On May 8, the BDI was 1316, down 105 week - on - week. - Iron ore port inventory decreased. This week, the total inventory at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. - The available days of iron ore inventory in sample steel mills remained flat this week. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5898 million tons, and the available days of inventory in large and medium - sized steel mills were 22 days as of May 7 [32][35][40]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - From January to April, steel exports increased year - on - year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, and from January to April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel and imported 2.072 million tons of steel. - Steel mill blast furnace operating rates increased, and hot metal production increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, and the daily average hot metal production was 2.4564 million tons [46][49]. 3.5 Options Market - With the overall weakness of the black - series and the significant rebound in iron ore imports, the expectation of increased supply is enhanced. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, copper first declined and then rose, with LME copper up 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton and SHFE copper up 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained open. With the market focusing on US tariff progress and the improvement expectation continuing, and the short - term boost from China - US economic and trade talks, along with the strong demand in the copper peak season since April, there is no reason to be significantly bearish on copper prices in the short - term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, investors should pay attention to the downstream's acceptance when copper prices enter the high - price range again and the performance of fundamentals and inventory when the peak season weakens [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated higher, with AO2509 closing at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2506 closing at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. Due to new maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and the acceleration of downstream stocking after the festival, alumina showed an upward correction in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For aluminum, due to limited inventory accumulation during the festival and weakening post - festival demand, short - term narrow - range adjustments are expected [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, while SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, the pressure on nickel prices will gradually emerge [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. US three - year inflation expectations reached a nearly three - year high, and the EU plans to sue the US at the WTO. LME copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 194,275 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,899 tons to 143,987 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons. Copper prices are expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but pay attention to downstream acceptance and inventory performance when the peak season weakens [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%, and SHFE aluminum AL2506 closed at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. SMM alumina price slightly adjusted down to 2,895 yuan/ton. New maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and accelerated downstream stocking after the festival led to short - term upward adjustment of alumina. In the long - term, short on rallies. Aluminum inventory accumulation was limited during the festival, and post - festival demand is weak [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,470 tons to 198,312 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 23,564 tons. Nickel iron prices weakened, and if domestic primary nickel accumulates inventory, it will pressure nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On May 8, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 78,420 yuan/ton, with a decline in premium. LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 300 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 27,446 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,550 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,752 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,470 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased. LME inventory decreased by 750 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the SMM spot price increased. SHFE inventory decreased by 340 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][18] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32] - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（81）期 发布日期：2025-05-09 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/8 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 882.00 | 894.00 | -12.0 | -1.342 | | | 焦炭 | 1,464.00 | 1,478.00 | -14.0 | -0.947 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,705.00 | 14,710.00 | -5.0 | -0.034 | | | 20号胶 | 12,560.00 | 12,535.00 | 25.0 | 0.199 | | | 塑料 | 7,022.00 | 7,016.00 | 6.0 | 0 ...

铅：短期震荡 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 2025 年 05 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16775 | 0.45% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1959.5 | 2.19% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 39686 | -5276 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4927 | -161 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 34382 | -2547 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 149724 | 1025 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -16.08 | 1.56 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -30 | 20 | 进口升贴水（美 | 10 ...

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 比尔·盖茨宣布： 将在20年内捐出几乎全部财富 当地时间5月8日，比尔·盖茨发文宣布，未来20年将捐出其几乎全部财富，用于挽救和改善 世界各地的生命，到2045年12月31日，盖茨基金会将永久性关闭。盖茨表示，他满怀信心 地将剩余财富投入基金会，因为负责管理和使用这些钱的人非常杰出和敬业。此前，盖茨在 播客采访中透露，他的孩子们将继承不到他总财富的1%，他认为给孩子们太多财富对他们 没有好处，希望他们开辟自己的成功之路。盖茨还强调，其资源的最大用途是通过基金会支 持最需要帮助的人。 英美就关税贸易协议条款 达成一致 当天晚些时候，英国政府发布官方声明，称 英国汽车出口至美国的关税将从27.5%降至 10%，钢铁和铝关税从25%降至零 。这一关税优惠将适用于10万辆英国汽车，几乎覆盖去 年英国对美出口的全部数量。 双方还就牛肉市场达成新的互惠准入协议， 英国农民获得1.3万吨免税配额 ，同时英国强 调对进口食品标准不会放松。此外， 英国将把来自美国、用于啤酒生产的乙醇关税降为零 。 据悉，谈判仍将继续，涵盖制药业和其他剩余的互惠关税项目。美国已同意，未来若根 据"232条款"调查再征 ...

Market Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has maintained the base interest rate at 4.75%, indicating that the supply and demand for Hong Kong dollars and overall liquidity will continue to influence the Hong Kong interbank offered rate, particularly for short-term interest rates [1] - The HKMA's CEO, Eddie Yue, stated that to enhance defensive measures, the proportion of US dollar assets in the foreign exchange fund has been reduced from over 90% to approximately 79%, and the duration of US Treasury investments has been shortened [1] - The Bank of England has lowered its interest rate to 4.25%, with the monetary policy guidance remaining "gradual and cautious," reflecting differing opinions within the central bank regarding the extent of the rate cut [2] Economic Indicators - As of the end of April, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves have decreased to $404.67 billion, the lowest level in five years, although it is expected not to fall below the $400 billion mark [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US have decreased to 228,000, with continuing claims also showing a reduction, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The US first-quarter labor productivity has experienced its first decline since 2022, while unit labor costs have significantly increased [5] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.62% to 41,368.45 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.58% to 5,663.94 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 1.07% to 17,928.14 points [6] - COMEX gold futures fell by 2.40% to $3,310.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.57% to $32.61 per ounce [7] - The main contract for US oil rose by 3.81% to $60.28 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil increased by 3.40% to $63.20 per barrel [8] Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell by 0.73% to 100.63, with the euro to dollar exchange rate down by 0.68% to 1.1226, and the British pound to dollar rate down by 0.34% to 1.3247 [9]

Group 1 - The US-UK trade agreement is expected to increase market access by $5 billion [1] - The agreement will generate an additional $6 billion in tariff revenue [1] - UK tariffs on US goods will be reduced to 1.8%, while US tariffs on UK goods will be raised to 10% [1] Group 2 - The UK government has agreed to concessions on imports of US food and agricultural products [1] - In exchange, the US will lower tariffs on UK automotive exports [1]