关税贸易协议

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欧元区二季度经济环比增长0.1%
Xin Hua She· 2025-07-30 12:33
Group 1 - The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, while the EU GDP grew by 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP increased by 1.4% in Q2, and the EU GDP rose by 1.5% [1] - In Q1, the Eurozone GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year, and the EU GDP increased by 1.6% [1] Group 2 - Germany, the largest economy in the EU, saw a GDP contraction of 0.1% in Q2, while France and Spain experienced growth of 0.3% and 0.7% respectively [1] - Italy's GDP also contracted by 0.1%, and Ireland's GDP shrank by 1% in Q2 [1] - The final GDP figures for Q1 showed a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6% for the Eurozone and 0.5% for the EU [1] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that the recent trade agreement between the US and EU may weaken EU export competitiveness due to high tariffs [1] - Increased investment from the EU to the US and the relocation of some production from Europe to the US could negatively impact local industry development and employment in the EU [1] - These factors are likely to drag down the economic growth prospects for the EU [1]
贵金属日评:美欧达成关税贸易协议,美日达成关税协议提高日本央行加息预期-20250728
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Due to the passage of the US stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and other assets, the Trump administration's pressure on Powell increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and unresolved geopolitical risks, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] Summary by Relevant Data Gold - **Futures Market**: Shanghai gold futures active contract closing price was 777.32 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 778.74 on 2025 - 07 - 25, 781.70 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 4.38 compared to a certain reference. Volume decreased from 331217.00 to 216188.00, and open interest decreased by 1605. Inventory (in ten - grams) increased from 29358.00 to 30258.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 37762393.92 to 37143884.29 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shanghai gold spot closing price was 773.61, with a change of - 3.39 compared to a reference. Spot - futures basis was - 3.71 on one date, - 3.64 on another, and - 4.70 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London gold spot price was 3343.50, 3365.85, and 3318.50 on different dates, with a change of 25.00. SPDR gold ETF holding was 957.09, and iShare gold ETF holding was 449.60 [1] Silver - **Futures Market**: Shanghai silver futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in ten - grams) decreased from 1188721.00 to 1204466.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 38.33, 39.29, and 38.44 on different dates, with a change of - 0.11. Volume decreased from 23117.00 to 17478.00, and open interest decreased by 1072. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 3632208.40 to 497804173.90 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shanghai silver spot closing price was 146.00, 9372.00, 9351.00, and 9226.00 on different dates, with a change of 21.00. Spot - futures basis was - 35.00 on one date, 25.00 on another, and - 20.00 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London silver spot price was 38.74, 39.03, and 37.76 on different dates, with a change of - 0.29. US iShare silver ETF holding was 15230.43, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holding was 6040.98 [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold spot price to Shanghai silver spot price was 82.97, 84.32, and 82.76 on different dates, with a change of - 1.55. The ratio of New York gold futures price to New York silver futures price was 87.11, 85.82, and 87.04 on different dates, with a change of 0.07. The ratio of London gold spot price to London silver spot price was 86.32, 86.25, and 87.90 on different dates, with a change of - 1.58 [1] Other Commodities - INE crude oil price was 512.90, 4.00, and 508.90 on different dates, with a change of - 3.90. ICE Brent crude oil price was - 2.05, 68.53, and 67.60 on different dates, with a change of - 0.93. NYMEX crude oil price was 65.07, 66.16, and 66.31 on different dates, with a change of - 1.09. Shanghai copper futures price was 79250.00, 79890.00, and 79700.00 on different dates, with a change of - 450.00. LME copper spot price was 9867.00, - 58.50, and 9796.00 on different dates, with a change of - 71.00. Shanghai rebar price was 3356.00, 3294.00, and 3224.00 on different dates, with a change of 62.00. Dalian iron ore price was 802.50, 811.00, and 809.00 on different dates, with a change of - 8.50 [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Shanghai inter - bank offered rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.52, 1.37, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of - 0.12. SHIBOR one - year was 1.63, 1.62, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of 0.01. US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4300, 4.4000, and 4.4700 on different dates, with a change of - 0.03. US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0400, - 0.02, and 1.9800 on different dates, with a change of - 0.08. US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.4400, 2.4500, and 2.4300 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01. US dollar index was 97.6701, 97.4884, and 98.6419 on different dates, with a change of - 0.97. US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1385, 7.1419, and 7.1522 on different dates, with a change of 0.00. Euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.4077, 8.3228, and 8.4001 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01 [1] Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite Index was 3593.6553, - 12.07, and 3605.7269 on different dates, with a change of 33.86. S&P 500 was 6363.3500, 6388.6400, and 6297.3600 on different dates, with a change of 25.29. UK FTSE 100 was 9120.3100, 9138.3700, and 8972.6400 on different dates, with a change of 147.67. French CAC40 was 7818.2800, 7834.5800, and 7822.0000 on different dates, with a change of 16.30. German DAX was 24217.5000, 24295.9300, and 24370.9300 on different dates, with a change of - 78.43. Nikkei 225 was 41456.2300, 41826.3400, and 39901.1900 on different dates, with a change of - 370.11. South Korean Composite Index was 3192.2900, 3.76, and 3196.0500 on different dates, with a change of 5.60 [1] Important Information - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff trade agreement, with Trump stating that the EU would increase investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of energy products [1] - After the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes within the year. There are different views on the " $550 billion investment" [1] - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US consumer - end inflation annual rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August increased, but the probability in February decreased [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France continued to rise in July. The eurozone (Germany) consumer price index annual rate in June was 2% (2%), meeting expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May, continuing to reduce government bond holdings from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK consumer price index annual rate in June was 3.68% (3.7%), higher than expected. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected. The expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England in August increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% in January and may start reducing quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The core consumer price index annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the above factors, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. Investors are recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around 3150 - 3250 and 3600 - 3700 respectively, for Shanghai gold around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850, for London silver around 35 - 37 and around 40 - 48, and for Shanghai silver around 8600 - 9000 and 9500 - 10000 [1]
中枢筑牢,行情反复
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 07:07
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The overall view is that the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate weakly. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation difference, a neutral Sino-US interest rate difference, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. The outlook suggests that the US dollar index is facing dual impacts of repeated inflation data and policy uncertainty, with a short-term weak trend. The RMB is supported by export resilience and flexible policy adjustments, and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15–7.20. It is recommended to maintain a neutral and flexible allocation [30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with significantly higher volatility on the Put side than on the Call side. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY [4]. - The term structure data shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the Sino-US interest rate difference in different periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter-cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has narrowed [10]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - The Fed has priced in a 65bp interest rate cut by 2025, and the pricing of US interest rate cuts has rebounded. The TGA account had a balance of $334.5 billion on June 25 (previous value of $383.8 billion, $120.7 billion/month), and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $210.8 billion. On June 24, Powell stated that there are multiple possibilities for the future monetary policy path [17]. - The US economic situation shows mixed employment, stable inflation below expectations, and marginal economic decline. Fiscal spending has declined, the economic sentiment in June has been differentiated, and retail sales in May have been under pressure [19]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations between the US and 15 key countries and regions, there is a differentiated pattern. As the deadline for Trump's "reciprocal tariff" 90-day suspension period (July 9) approaches, most negotiations have not made breakthroughs. The US government's attitude towards extension is inconsistent, and the subsequent progress needs continuous attention [20]. Event: The "Big and Beautiful" Bill - The bill consists of six parts and is expected to increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 - 2034. Trump requires the bill to be passed before Independence Day. The US Senate passed the bill on July 1, and it has been submitted to the House of Representatives [24]. Macro: Chinese Economy - The economic structure in China showed increased pressure in May. The June national PMI was 49.7, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 and a year-on-year increase of 0. The production volume increased by 0.3 to 51, and new orders increased by 0.4 to 49.5. Different industries showed different trends [25][27].
降至10%不够,日本首相:寻求美方撤销汽车关税
news flash· 2025-05-11 07:50
Core Points - The U.S. has agreed to reduce tariffs on certain British cars from 27.5% to 10% as part of a trade agreement [1] - The U.K. government has made concessions on imports of U.S. food and agricultural products in exchange for the tariff reduction [1] - The tariff reduction will apply to 100,000 British cars, nearly covering the total number exported to the U.S. last year [1] - Steel and aluminum tariffs will be reduced from 25% to zero [1] Summary by Category Tariff Changes - U.S. tariffs on British cars will decrease from 27.5% to 10% [1] - Steel and aluminum tariffs will be eliminated, dropping from 25% to zero [1] Trade Agreement Details - The U.K. has agreed to concessions on U.S. food and agricultural imports to facilitate the tariff reduction [1] - The agreement reached on May 8 outlines the terms of the trade deal between the U.K. and the U.S. [1] Export Impact - The tariff reduction will benefit 100,000 British cars, which is almost the entire volume of British car exports to the U.S. last year [1]
铁矿石市场周报:进口量大幅增加,铁矿石期价冲高回落-20250509
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 09:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows overseas Fed maintaining interest rates and UK - US tariff trade agreement, while domestically, there will be Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks and central bank measures to stabilize the property market. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased, but April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates are slightly up, and hot metal production remains high. Technically, the iron ore 2509 contract shows a bearish pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of May 9, the iron ore main contract futures price was 696 (-7.5) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 (-7) yuan/dry ton. - The total Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased by 218000 tons this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.184 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons. - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 45200 tons. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons; at 45 ports, 24.497 million tons; and at the six northern ports, 13.347 million tons. - Hot metal production increased by 220 tons, with a daily average of 2.4564 million tons. - Port inventory decreased by 83000 tons. As of May 9, 2025, the inventory at 47 ports was 147.64 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.5898 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, up 2.59 percentage points week - on - week and 6.92 percentage points year - on - year [6]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks will be held, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market. - Supply and demand: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventory decreased. However, April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates were slightly up, and hot metal production remained high. - Technical: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed DIFF and DEA below the 0 - axis. - Strategy: It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures prices fluctuated weakly this week. The I2509 contract was stronger than the I2601 contract, with a spread of 26 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Iron ore warehouse receipts remained flat this week, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 3200 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 7604 lots, an increase of 7823 lots from last week. - Spot prices declined this week. On May 9, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, spot prices were stronger than futures prices, with a basis of 103 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [14][22][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The total arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons, and the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons. - The utilization rate of mine production capacity decreased, and the BDI index decreased. As of April 25, the utilization rate of 266 mines was 63.06%, and the inventory was 65260 tons. On May 8, the BDI was 1316, down 105 week - on - week. - Iron ore port inventory decreased. This week, the total inventory at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. - The available days of iron ore inventory in sample steel mills remained flat this week. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5898 million tons, and the available days of inventory in large and medium - sized steel mills were 22 days as of May 7 [32][35][40]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - From January to April, steel exports increased year - on - year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, and from January to April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel and imported 2.072 million tons of steel. - Steel mill blast furnace operating rates increased, and hot metal production increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, and the daily average hot metal production was 2.4564 million tons [46][49]. 3.5 Options Market - With the overall weakness of the black - series and the significant rebound in iron ore imports, the expectation of increased supply is enhanced. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [52].
有色商品日报-20250509
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 08:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, copper first declined and then rose, with LME copper up 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton and SHFE copper up 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained open. With the market focusing on US tariff progress and the improvement expectation continuing, and the short - term boost from China - US economic and trade talks, along with the strong demand in the copper peak season since April, there is no reason to be significantly bearish on copper prices in the short - term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, investors should pay attention to the downstream's acceptance when copper prices enter the high - price range again and the performance of fundamentals and inventory when the peak season weakens [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated higher, with AO2509 closing at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2506 closing at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. Due to new maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and the acceleration of downstream stocking after the festival, alumina showed an upward correction in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For aluminum, due to limited inventory accumulation during the festival and weakening post - festival demand, short - term narrow - range adjustments are expected [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, while SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, the pressure on nickel prices will gradually emerge [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. US three - year inflation expectations reached a nearly three - year high, and the EU plans to sue the US at the WTO. LME copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 194,275 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,899 tons to 143,987 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons. Copper prices are expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but pay attention to downstream acceptance and inventory performance when the peak season weakens [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%, and SHFE aluminum AL2506 closed at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. SMM alumina price slightly adjusted down to 2,895 yuan/ton. New maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and accelerated downstream stocking after the festival led to short - term upward adjustment of alumina. In the long - term, short on rallies. Aluminum inventory accumulation was limited during the festival, and post - festival demand is weak [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,470 tons to 198,312 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 23,564 tons. Nickel iron prices weakened, and if domestic primary nickel accumulates inventory, it will pressure nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On May 8, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 78,420 yuan/ton, with a decline in premium. LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 300 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 27,446 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,550 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,752 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,470 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased. LME inventory decreased by 750 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the SMM spot price increased. SHFE inventory decreased by 340 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][18] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32] - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]
中原期货晨会纪要-20250509
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 05:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed an upward trend on May 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for three consecutive days. The military - industrial stocks remained strong, and the AI hardware direction strengthened. However, sectors such as PEEK materials and gold declined. The market trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3352 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.65% [8]. - In the futures market, different varieties had different price trends. For example, in the chemical industry, crude oil increased by 1.887%, while PVC decreased by 0.455%. In the agricultural products sector, straight fragrant rice increased by 0.928%, and cotton No. 1 decreased by 0.116% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - China and Russia deepened their comprehensive strategic partnership, and the two leaders witnessed the exchange of more than 20 bilateral cooperation texts in multiple fields [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade talks, stating that the US should correct wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariffs, and China will not sacrifice principles [7]. - The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the US reducing tariffs on UK - made cars to 10% and on steel and aluminum to zero. They also agreed to start negotiations on a digital trade agreement [7]. - The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sued the US at the WTO over its tariff policies [8]. - OpenAI made a major personnel adjustment, with co - founder and CEO Altman focusing more on core technologies [8]. 3.2 Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is stable, with limited speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Oils and fats: The external market lacks support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Sugar: Affected by international sugar prices and domestic supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to support and resistance levels [12]. - Corn: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is not advisable to chase long at the current price, and aggressive investors can try to go long lightly [12]. - Hogs: Spot prices are weak, and futures are range - bound. It is advisable to operate intraday [12][14]. - Eggs: Spot prices are weak, and the mid - term market faces pressure. Consider shorting in the far - month contracts [14]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The market price is stable, with high daily production and inventory de - stocking. The market may continue to consolidate at a high level [13][14]. - Caustic soda: The market fundamentals change little, and the 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level [14]. - Coking coal and coke: Trading is weak, and they may oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices are low due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and trade agreements [16]. - Alumina: The spot price is relatively firm, and the 2509 contract may be in low - level consolidation [16]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is weak, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening. Pay attention to support levels [16]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese ore shows signs of stabilizing, and the double - silicon market is in weak oscillation [16][18]. - Lithium carbonate: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate in the range of 63,000 - 65,000 yuan [18]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock index: The index maintains a strong consolidation, and the strategy is to buy on dips. Consider arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - Options: For trend investors, it is advisable to defend. Volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility drops [20].
铅:短期震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:54
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lead market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,959.5 dollars/ton, up 2.19% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 39,686 lots, a decrease of 5,276 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 4,927 lots, a decrease of 161 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 34,382 lots, a decrease of 2,547 lots; the LME lead open interest was 149,724 lots, an increase of 1,025 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 1 lead premium/discount was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was - 16.08 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.56 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 617.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.15 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three contract was - 525.61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.09 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 39,931 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; LME lead inventory was 255,150 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons; LME lead cancelled warrants were 134,525 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 674 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - The US and the UK reached an agreement on the terms of the tariff and trade agreement. The US will maintain a 10% benchmark tariff, reduce the tariff on the first 100,000 imported British cars to 10%, and reduce steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. The UK will reduce the tariff on US ethanol to zero, and a reciprocal beef access agreement was reached. Trump said the agreement with the UK is not a template, 10% may be the minimum, and tariffs for other countries may be higher [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].
比尔盖茨宣布将捐出几乎全部财富!英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致!A股又曝天价离婚!胖东来发布和田玉翡翠退货说明!
新浪财经· 2025-05-09 00:44
Group 1: Bill Gates' Philanthropic Announcement - Bill Gates announced that he will donate nearly all of his wealth over the next 20 years to save and improve lives globally, with the Gates Foundation set to permanently close by December 31, 2045 [2] - Gates expressed confidence in the management of the foundation, stating that the individuals responsible for managing the funds are outstanding and dedicated [2] - He revealed that his children will inherit less than 1% of his total wealth, believing that giving them too much wealth would not benefit them and that they should forge their own paths to success [2] Group 2: UK-US Trade Agreement - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK government agreeing to concessions on imports of US food and agricultural products in exchange for reduced tariffs on UK car exports [6] - The tariff on UK car exports to the US will decrease from 27.5% to 10%, and tariffs on steel and aluminum will be eliminated, covering nearly all of last year's UK car exports to the US [8] - A new mutual access agreement for the beef market was established, granting UK farmers a 13,000-ton duty-free quota, while the UK emphasized that food import standards will not be relaxed [8] Group 3: Zhu Cheng Technology Shareholder Divorce - Zhu Cheng Technology announced that its controlling shareholder and actual controller, Zhang Jianchun, has divorced, with the ex-wife receiving 8.7675 million shares valued at approximately 381 million yuan [10] - The change in shareholding will not affect the company's management or control structure, as the voting rights held by Zhang and his ex-wife will remain unchanged [10] - Zhang Jianchun, 55 years old, is a senior economist and has completed an MBA program at Renmin University of China [10] Group 4: Fat Donglai Return Policy - Fat Donglai issued a return policy for Hetian jade and jadeite, allowing customers to return items purchased in their jewelry department if they have any doubts about price or quality [14] - Customers can have their items evaluated by a third-party authority and can return them without incurring any fees or taxes [14]
国际金融市场早知道:5月9日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 00:43
Market Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has maintained the base interest rate at 4.75%, indicating that the supply and demand for Hong Kong dollars and overall liquidity will continue to influence the Hong Kong interbank offered rate, particularly for short-term interest rates [1] - The HKMA's CEO, Eddie Yue, stated that to enhance defensive measures, the proportion of US dollar assets in the foreign exchange fund has been reduced from over 90% to approximately 79%, and the duration of US Treasury investments has been shortened [1] - The Bank of England has lowered its interest rate to 4.25%, with the monetary policy guidance remaining "gradual and cautious," reflecting differing opinions within the central bank regarding the extent of the rate cut [2] Economic Indicators - As of the end of April, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves have decreased to $404.67 billion, the lowest level in five years, although it is expected not to fall below the $400 billion mark [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US have decreased to 228,000, with continuing claims also showing a reduction, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The US first-quarter labor productivity has experienced its first decline since 2022, while unit labor costs have significantly increased [5] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.62% to 41,368.45 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.58% to 5,663.94 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 1.07% to 17,928.14 points [6] - COMEX gold futures fell by 2.40% to $3,310.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.57% to $32.61 per ounce [7] - The main contract for US oil rose by 3.81% to $60.28 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil increased by 3.40% to $63.20 per barrel [8] Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell by 0.73% to 100.63, with the euro to dollar exchange rate down by 0.68% to 1.1226, and the British pound to dollar rate down by 0.34% to 1.3247 [9]