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李宁(02331.HK):25Q3流水承压 产品推新和奥运营销持续推进
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-30 21:14
Core Viewpoint - The company is facing pressure on overall revenue due to warmer weather, leading to a year-on-year decline in total channel revenue in the mid-single digits for Q3 2025, while maintaining a focus on marketing investments for the Olympics and product innovation [1][3]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total channel revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a month-on-month weakening trend observed from July to September [1]. - Breakdown of revenue by channel shows offline channels experiencing a high single-digit decline, with wholesale channels down significantly and direct sales channels down in the mid-single digits; online channels, however, saw a high single-digit growth [1]. Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts have deepened across channels, with overall channel discounts increasing in the low single digits year-on-year; the wholesale channel saw a slight increase, while direct sales and e-commerce channels experienced a more significant increase [2]. - Inventory levels are manageable, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio maintained at 5-6 months; it is expected to be controlled at 4-5 months by year-end [2]. Store Expansion - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores from the previous quarter and 15 stores from the previous year; direct stores decreased by 46 from the previous year, while wholesale stores increased by 61 [2]. Product Innovation - The company is actively promoting new products, including the launch of the superbeng capsule for key products like the Feidian 6 and Chitu 9, as well as new basketball and outdoor products [2]. Marketing Initiatives - The company is enhancing its marketing efforts, including the launch of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics gear for the Chinese sports delegation and collaborations for skiing events [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company aims to maintain revenue stability through 2025, with projected revenues of 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively; net profits are projected at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026, with a strong buy recommendation maintained [3].