作 者 | Envision Research 编译 | 华尔街大事件 博通公司 (NASDAQ： AVGO )最近公布了其第二财季业绩预告。如下图所示，该公司公布的业 绩在两个方面均超出市场预期。本文将关注迄今为止较少讨论的两个方面：其AI功能的可扩展性 以及库存水平。 | Latest Quarter's Earnings | | Upcoming Quarter's Earnings | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Announce Date | 6/5/2025 | Announce Date | | | EPS Normalized Actual | $1.58 (Beat by $0.01) | EPS Normalized Estimate | $1.66 | | EPS GAAP Actual | $1.03 (Beat by $0.07) | EPS GAAP Estimate | $1.07 | | Revenue Actual | $15.00B | Revenue Estimate | $15.82B | | Revenue Surprise | Bea ...

Automotive Dealer Strategy - SKU Streamlining: The number of configurations for single models has been reduced from 4-5 to 2-3 (e.g., Qin Lev/Seagull 06EV has only 3 versions) to optimize the supply chain, reduce inventory complexity, and enhance product competitiveness [4] - Inventory Break Mechanism: Immediate cessation of shipments when inventory exceeds warning levels to alleviate financial pressure on dealers and enhance operational flexibility [4] - Accelerated Rebate Payments: Shortening the rebate cycle and expediting fund allocation (personally supervised by Wang Chuanfu) to stabilize the pricing system and ensure dealer profitability [4] - Terminal Price Control: Managing discount levels and optimizing promotional policies to prevent vicious competition and ensure sustainable profits [4] International Market Dynamics - Indonesia Market: The first dealer conference was held, signing long-term service commitments, and traditional dance performances were used to strengthen brand cohesion [4] - Americas Market: 170 dealers experienced the Tengshi Z9GT/Yangwang U8, with a focus on expanding into European, North American, and South American markets, alongside tea ceremony activities to promote Chinese culture [4] Other Business Lines - Forklift Business: Targeting an annual sales revenue of 5 billion yuan, with strategies focused on electric forklift technology upgrades and intelligent logistics solutions, aiming to expand into high-end markets in Europe, the United States, and Japan [4]

麦格理认为，约10亿美元的关税增量成本影响将通过以下方式逐步缓解：1)优化不同国家的采购组合和 生产分配;计划到2026财年末将中国对美国的进口占比从目前的16%降至高个位数水平;2)与供应商和零 售合作伙伴合作，减轻成本上升的影响，以在2026财年将对消费者的影响降至最低;3)从2025年秋季开 始分阶段实施提价。这意味着原始设备制造商可能需要分担部分关税负担。 该行指，激活和重置中国市场的行动需要时间。在大中华区，耐克直营业务营收同比下降15%(2025财 年第三季度为-11%)，其中数字业务/门店分别同比下降31%/6%(2025财年第三季度为-20%/-6%)。更深层 次的重置导致折扣加大和供应减少，这从中国库存同比下降11%中得到体现。由于批发营收同比下降 24%(2025财年第三季度为-18%)，这应该会减轻滔搏等零售商的压力。更新市场、打造品牌特色或利用 地理快线推出本地化产品等举措需要时间才能见效。 智通财经APP获悉，麦格理发布研报称，耐克(NKE.US)管理层预计2026财年第一季度营收降幅将收窄 至中等个位数水平，而2025财年第四季度同比降幅为11%。在该行看来，对美国终端市场敞口较大 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net revenues for the first quarter were $7.1 million, down from $10 million in the prior year [6] - Average active brand partners decreased to 7,700 from 13,400 year-over-year [6] - Loss before income taxes improved to a negative $1.4 million from a negative $1.7 million [6] - Net loss decreased to $1.1 million compared to a loss of $1.3 million last year [6] - Loss per share improved to $0.13 from $0.15 on a fully diluted basis [6] - Net inventories decreased by $2.7 million from $44.7 million to $42 million [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The decline in sales was primarily driven by reduced brand partner levels in the paper pie division [4] - Customer sales events were implemented to promote paper pie sales and generate cash [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company faced a challenging sales environment due to high inflation and reduced disposable income among families with small children [4] - The direct sales industry, particularly in the product sector, has experienced difficulties in recruiting new consultants [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strategic changes to support brand partners and has launched new incentive programs [7] - A successful partnership with Ticket to Dream has allowed the company to distribute thousands of books to foster children [9] - The company is planning a phased approach to purchasing new titles and replenishing best sellers to energize the sales force [10][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the current downturn in the industry but expressed confidence in emerging stronger and more resilient [13] - The company is working on a sale leaseback of its headquarters, with expectations to complete the sale before September [12] - Management is optimistic about the ongoing sale process and has developed a contingency plan (Plan B) in case the primary sale does not go through [22][23] Other Important Information - The company has executed an agreement to sell the Hilti Complex, with a 90-day due diligence period [12] - Proceeds from the sale are expected to fully pay back the bank, leaving the company with no debt [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the contingency plan if the sale of the Hilti Complex falls through? - Management has a viable Plan B that includes other offers with quick close contingencies, which would also help eliminate bank debt [22][23] Question: Can you provide more details about the buyer group for the Hilti Complex? - The buyer group is a real estate company, and management is optimistic about the ongoing due diligence process [26][27] Question: What is the strategy behind buying new titles given the current inventory levels? - The strategy involves a conservative approach to introduce new titles to energize the sales force without significantly increasing inventory levels [40][41] Question: What is the target net revenue run rate and average from partners during normalization? - Management indicated that rebuilding will take time, and they are implementing various strategies to improve sales and recruitment [44][45] Question: Has there been any serious interest in acquiring the company? - Management has not received any serious unsolicited offers for acquisition, but they would entertain such discussions in the future [47][50] Question: What is the current relationship with the bank? - The relationship has been good, with the bank supporting the company through the process, although amendments have become more restrictive [51][53]

编者按：近期，麦格理发布研究报告指出，随着耐克在中国持续调整，安踏体育整体有望获得市场份额增长。报告主要内容 如下： 耐克管理层预计2026财年第一季度营收降幅将收窄至中等个位数水平，而2025财年第四季度同比降幅为11%。 在我们看来，对美国终端市场敞口较大的原始设备制造商可能更多地受到关税负担分摊的影响。 随着耐克在中国持续调整，安踏体育整体有望获得市场份额增长。滔搏可能会从耐克获得更多支持。 耐克(NKE US；未评级)公布2025财年第四季度剔除汇率影响后的营收同比下降11%(2025财年第三季度为-7%)，超过FactSet预 期3.4%。北美、欧洲-中东-非洲、大中华区、亚太-拉丁美洲的营收同比分别为-11%、-10%、-20%、-3%(2025财年第三季度分 别为-4%、-6%、-15%、-4%)。 与 2025财年第四季度相比，营收降幅将收窄。管理层预计2026财年第一季度营收同比下降中等个位数，毛利率同比下降350- 425个基点(包括关税带来的100个基点的负面影响)。批发假日订单同比增长，北美、欧洲-中东-非洲和亚太-拉丁美洲的增长被 大中华区抵消。按产品类别划分，服装同比下降9%(20 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年07月07日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 震荡区间59000-62000 | 21.1% | 25.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2509 | 卖出 | 70% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 30% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 管理 | 未来有采购计划，担心 ...

观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑现期，关注累库实际情况，宏观不稳，欧美甲醇价格弱势，单边暂不好定方向，估值 低，偏向低了做多配。 甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 280 350 220 350 -1173 2025/07/0 1 801 2520 2480 2430 2550 2445 2543 280 350 125 90 -1208 2025/07/0 2 801 2465 2480 2460 2550 2445 2603 277 345 58 45 -1240 2025/07/0 3 801 2470 2468 2500 2550 2445 2610 280 345 48 45 -1268 2025/07/0 4 801 2455 ...

数字化转型如同一场永不停歇的创新裂变反应，每一次技术融合都能释放出巨大的创新能量，催生出全 新的商业模式与竞争优势。 在数字洪流奔涌的当下，企业的生存法则正在经历颠覆性重构。数字化转型早已超越单纯的技术更迭范 畴，演变为一场关乎企业战略定位、运营模式、创新能力乃至文化基因的全面革新。这场变革不仅重新 定义了企业竞争力的构成要素，更塑造出全新的商业生态格局。接下来，我们将深入拆解数字化转型如 何通过四大核心维度，重塑企业在新时代的竞争优势。 传统企业运营往往如同驾驶一辆没有仪表盘的汽车，管理者凭借经验判断方向，效率提升依赖试错与运 气。而数字化转型为企业装上了智能导航系统，让运营管理从 "模糊感知" 迈向 "精准调控"。 某全球家电制造巨头曾面临生产计划与市场需求脱节的难题。过去，其依靠季度销售预测制定生产计 划，常出现热销产品断货、滞销产品积压的情况。引入数字化系统后，企业构建起 "需求感知网络"， 实时抓取全球 120 各电商平台、3000 家线下门店的销售数据，并结合社交媒体舆情分析消费趋势。当 系统监测到某款空气炸锅在短视频平台的搜索量 72 小时内激增 300% 时，立即触发智能排产，将该产 品的生产 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/02 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 155 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2760 2505 2480 2600 2460 2580 286 347 258 340 -1243 2025/06/2 7 801 2820 2505 2460 2600 2460 2580 282 350 267 400 -1176 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 280 350 220 350 -1173 2025/07/0 1 801 2520 2480 2430 2550 2445 2543 280 350 220 90 -1208 日度变化 0 -265 -5 0 -50 0 0 0 0 0 -260 -35 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东 ...

2025年07月02日 星期三 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 期货研究 延续跌势。铝合金下游需求进入消费淡季，开工率较稳定。 交易策略：期货价格反弹后，不同成本厂家会逐步套保，盘面反弹幅度或有限。目前盘面套保后，企业复工 弹性较大，价格承压。此外，受大厂减产和煤炭价格扰动影响，短期盘面有较强支撑。关注复产进度，预计 盘面宽幅震荡。 风险提示：工厂减产意愿、出台相关能耗双控政策 碳 酸 锂 市场表现：昨日主力 LC2509 合约收于 62,780 元/吨（+100），涨+0.16%。 基本面：供给端 7 月碳酸锂预计生产 81150 实物吨，环比增+3.92%。进口锂辉石精矿指数昨日跌至 625（-5） 美元/吨，目前外购锂辉石生产碳酸锂利润大幅修复，连续增产，上周周产产量创历史新高为 18767 吨，环比 +1.65%。需求端因提前释放近端整体偏弱，远月预期边际改善但较难拉动去库，7 月下游排产方面，磷酸铁 锂为 29.38 万吨，环比增+3.0%，三元材料达 6.58 万吨，环比增+1.3%。库存方面，合计库存高位，昨日广 期所仓单为 22940（+312）手，上周库存创历史新高为 136837（+1936）吨。 ...