人民财讯8月26日电，近日，宇新股份（002986）控股子公司惠州博科环保新材料有限公司轻烃综合利 用项目(一期)中的24万吨/年顺酐装置产出纯度达99.9%的合格产品，产品各项指标高于国家标准。目前 生产装置运行稳定。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨齐翔腾达（002408.SZ） [Table_Title] 反内卷政策加速行业出清，景气度有望企稳向好 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司公布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年上半年实现营业收入 122.08 亿元，同比下降 4.09%； 归母净利润 0.23 亿元，同比下降 83.34%；扣非归母净利润 0.22 亿元，同比下降 82.14%。其 中 2025 年第二季度实现营业收入 65.90 亿元，同比下降 9.10%，环比增长 17.29%；归母净利 润 0.18 亿元，同比下降 83.38%，环比增长 228.72%；扣非归母净利润 0.17 亿元，同比下降 82.65%，环比增长 200.97%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 齐翔腾达（002408.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Tit ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in exports across multiple key products in the first half of 2025, with notable increases in MTBE, butanol, and anhydride exports [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the carbon four deep processing industry, with advantages in exporting to Southeast Asia and South Asia [4]. - Future profit forecasts for the company are optimistic, with projected net profits of 138 million, 408 million, and 546 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, translating to EPS of 0.36, 1.06, and 1.42 yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company exported 1.5205 million tons of MTBE, a year-on-year increase of 15.64%, and 132,700 tons of butanol, up 18.95% [1]. - The export of anhydride reached 109,800 tons, marking a 6.13% increase [1]. Market Dynamics - The company’s MTBE exports to Singapore reached 836,400 tons, a 10.97% increase, while exports to the UAE surged by 43.96% [2]. - The butanol market saw a significant increase in exports to India, with a year-on-year growth of 85.08% [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 7.701 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.816 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [5][10]. - The projected PE ratios indicate a favorable valuation, with 35 times for 2025 and decreasing to 9 times by 2027 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Energy Group New Materials Company has achieved significant growth and development in its three years of operation, focusing on becoming a leading new materials industry group through strategic acquisitions and enhancements in production capabilities [1] Group 1: Strategic Development - The company has successfully acquired Qixiang Tengda, enhancing its core chemical and new materials business through integration and collaboration [2] - New Materials Company leads in the production of acetone and anhydride, with the highest global output, and ranks third globally in nylon elastomer production [2] - The company has established six intelligent production lines, achieving an 80% level of automation, resulting in a 56% year-on-year increase in production capacity [2] Group 2: Industry Expansion - The company has initiated the Liuchuan Stone Mine project, which will significantly enhance its calcium-based materials production capabilities, with an expected annual output value exceeding 300 million yuan [3] - The company is transitioning from traditional cement production to a comprehensive high-end calcium-based industry [3] Group 3: Internal Reforms - The company has implemented significant organizational reforms, reducing management levels and improving operational efficiency by 10% [4] - Non-core business units have been integrated or closed, allowing the company to focus on its main business and enhance development momentum [4] Group 4: Party Leadership and Cultural Integration - The company emphasizes the integration of party leadership into its operations, which is seen as a key driver for reform and improvement [5] - A training program for party organization has been conducted, with 540 participants, aimed at unifying thoughts and enhancing collective strength [5] - The company has engaged in various employee welfare activities, distributing over 1 million yuan in support to employees in need, which has contributed to a significant increase in profits [6]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Energy Group is focusing on national strategic industries by establishing Shandong Energy New Materials Company in July 2022, aiming to create a leading new materials industry group with a target of building a trillion-level new materials industry cluster [1] Group 1: Industry Development Strategy - The new materials company emphasizes the cultivation of industrial clusters as a key driver for high-quality development, focusing on four major industrial clusters: high-end chemical new materials, calcium-based new materials, fiber and composite new materials, and optoelectronic new materials [2] - The company has achieved significant profit growth from January to May this year, exceeding annual assessment targets, and is actively engaged in project mergers and acquisitions to enhance its industrial chain [1][2] Group 2: High-End Chemical New Materials - Qixiang Tengda, as the world's largest carbon four deep processing base, leads in the production and sales of acetone and anhydride, with an expected export revenue of $442 million in 2024 [2] - Dongchen Ruishen has overcome key technologies in long-chain nylon, ranking third globally in nylon elastomer production capacity [2] Group 3: Calcium-Based New Materials - The calcium-based new materials industrial park is under rapid construction, with a million-ton industrial calcium stone processing line entering joint trial operation, and a 100,000-ton nano-calcium carbonate project expected to generate over 300 million yuan in annual output value [2][6] Group 4: Fiber and Composite New Materials - Shandong Glass Fiber has introduced a high-performance glass fiber manufacturing project with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons, meeting the demands of offshore wind power [2] Group 5: Optoelectronic New Materials - The company is strategically focusing on the research and industrialization of perovskite solar cells, with plans to establish the first 100-megawatt production line north of the Yangtze River by 2024 [3] Group 6: Intelligent Manufacturing - The company is advancing digitalization and intelligent management systems, exemplified by the "black light factory" concept, which has reduced labor from 300 to over 100 while improving production efficiency and product quality [4] - The integration of digital and intelligent technologies is seen as a transformative force in traditional manufacturing, enhancing productivity and quality [4] Group 7: High-End Value Creation - The company recognizes that high-end development is essential for survival in a competitive global market, focusing on the integration of raw materials and advanced production techniques [5] - The transformation of limestone into high-end calcium-based materials illustrates a significant value increase, with prices rising from around 100 yuan per ton to 3,000 yuan after processing [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the supply-demand imbalance in the anhydride industry is worsening due to significant capacity expansion and weak downstream demand, leading to a continued decline in market conditions [1][2] Group 2 - Capacity is continuously being released, with new anhydride production capacity expected to reach 1.25 million tons per year in 2024, resulting in a total capacity of 3.08 million tons, an increase of over 68% compared to 2023 [1] - In 2025, over 1 million tons of new capacity is anticipated, with 450,000 tons of new capacity added by the end of May 2024, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15% [1] - The market remains sluggish, with anhydride prices continuing to decline, reaching a near five-year low, and capacity utilization dropping to around 48% [1][2] Group 3 - Demand support is weak, with oversupply being a significant factor in the ongoing downturn of the anhydride industry [2] - Despite an increase in downstream product consumption last year, the growth rate lagged behind raw material supply, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] - Economic slowdown and low real estate activity are impacting end demand, with limited growth in emerging downstream BDO and an oversupply of acid anhydride products [2] Group 4 - To alleviate domestic market pressure, production companies are actively exploring overseas markets, with a record high export volume of anhydride expected in 2024 [2] - In the first five months of this year, cumulative anhydride exports increased by 11.32% year-on-year, providing some relief to the domestic market, although it does not fundamentally resolve the supply-demand conflict [2] Group 5 - Facing intense competition, an integrated model is expected to be the mainstream development approach for anhydride companies in the future [2] - Leading anhydride producers are equipped with comprehensive industry chain structures to reduce overall production costs, while also relying on technological innovation to enhance market competitiveness [2]

1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances and the resulting trade re - balancing were the main themes in the H1 2025 LPG market. In H2 2025, with the concentrated launch of new production capacities in the Middle East and the US, and the weak growth of domestic chemical demand, the supply - demand balance will turn to looseness [2][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 LPG Market Review - **Analysis of Different Stages**: - In Q1 2025, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The lowest deliverable domestic LPG was Shandong civil gas with a spot price around 4,800 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The LPG market fluctuated widely with costs under the pressure of cancellation [9]. - The 04 - contract LPG showed strength. Against the backdrop of weakening global crude oil and FEI prices, the domestic LPG price was strong, and the basis once shrank to around 100 yuan/ton. The contract mainly traded on the squeeze - out of the futures market and the expected tariff counter - measures due to Trump's potential global taxation [9]. - After Trump's global equal - tariff policy and high - tariff measures against China, China imposed a 125% counter - tariff on US imports. The global crude oil and FEI prices tumbled. The domestic LPG market was initially strong but then followed the decline of civil gas prices, while the internal - external price spread rebounded rapidly and fluctuated until early May [9]. - After the Sino - US phased tariff suspension agreement on May 12, the FEI market reversed, and the domestic LPG price fell sharply under the weakening civil gas and large - scale warehouse receipts, with the basis widening [9]. 3.2 2025 H2 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 LPG Import Pattern Outlook - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, with the rapid expansion of domestic PDH and other capacities, the chemical demand for LPG increased significantly, and the average annual growth rate of the total imports of propane and butane was 14.10% [11]. - **2025 H1 Import Situation**: From January to March, the cumulative imports of LPG were 8.514 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.44%. However, from April to May, under the impact of Trump's 125% tariff on China, the imports dropped to 5.0209 million tons, a 11.54% decrease from the Q1 average. Even after the tariff suspension in May, the procurement of US propane did not increase significantly due to policy uncertainty and supply - chain substitution [14]. - **Import Source Changes**: The share of US propane in China's imports dropped sharply. In May, it accounted for only 21.17% (310,000 tons). The shortfall was mainly filled by the Middle East (increasing to 55.12% in May 2025 from 23.96% in 2024) and non - traditional sources such as Canada, Australia, and North Africa [15]. 3.2.1.1 Tariff 1.0 - **2018 - 2020 Trade War Impact**: In 2018, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, China counter - imposed tariffs on US LPG. The US LPG imports dropped by about 290,000 tons/month on average. China supplemented imports through increasing Middle East imports, seeking non - traditional sources, and exchanging goods with Japan and South Korea. However, there was still a shortfall of about 40,000 tons/month [19]. - **2025 Situation**: By 2024, US propane accounted for 59% of China's imports, over 17 million tons annually. If US imports were to stop, it would be difficult to reshape the trade logistics, and the arrival cost of LPG would likely increase. Chinese PDH enterprises might face production cuts or shutdowns [21]. 3.2.1.2 Middle East LPG Supply - **H1 2025 Supply**: Since 2023, the average annual growth rate of Middle East LPG exports has been between 2.5 - 3%. From January to May 2025, it increased by 2.88% year - on - year. The supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar decreased, while the increments mainly came from Iran and Kuwait [23]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: From 2025 - 2026, the new LPG capacity in the Middle East is estimated to be between 14 - 16 million tons, mainly contributed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This expansion will add nearly 10% to the global LPG supply, intensify market competition, and may put downward pressure on international prices [27]. - **Change in Export Direction**: Due to the slowdown in Indian demand and the change in the North Asian import pattern, the Middle East's LPG exports will be more focused on China, Southeast Asia, and Europe [27]. 3.2.1.3 US LPG Supply - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of US propane exports was 10.69%. From January to May 2025, the exports increased by 6.51% year - on - year. Affected by the North American cold wave, exports in February decreased by 9.34% year - on - year and recovered to about 7% in March [33]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: In H2 2025, US LPG production is expected to increase with expanding exports. The Permian Basin's associated LPG supply will remain high, and with the launch of the Enterprise14 fractionation project and terminal expansion, the export capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 to 2.4 million barrels per day [35]. - **Logistics Pattern Change**: After Trump's "global equal - tariff" policy, the total US propane exports were not significantly affected, but the logistics pattern changed. China's procurement of US propane decreased significantly, while Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America increased their imports [37]. - **Export Capacity Constraints**: US LPG exports are highly concentrated in a few major terminals. Without considering terminal expansions, if the 1 - 5 month's 5% export growth rate is maintained, the average capacity utilization rate of the four major terminals in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach 91%. If calculated based on the average 10% growth rate in the past 5 years, it will rise to 98%, indicating a bottleneck in export capacity [42]. 3.2.2 Domestic LPG Supply Outlook - **H1 2025 Supply**: From January to May 2025, the domestic crude oil processing volume decreased by 4.12% year - on - year, dragging the LPG production into negative growth. The total LPG production was 22.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.56% [47]. - **Refinery Operations**: In H1 2025, the overall refinery operations were sluggish. The main refineries had a peak - and - trough pattern during the spring maintenance from March to May, while Shandong independent refineries started the year with a sharp decline and then stagnated at a low level [50]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: In H2 2025, new refinery capacities of 27 million tons/year will be gradually released, which is expected to increase the crude oil processing capacity by 2.5 - 3% and theoretically drive the marginal increase of LPG production by 3,500 - 4,500 tons/day [54]. 3.2.3 Domestic LPG Demand Outlook 3.2.3.1 PDH - **Profit and Operation in H1 2025**: In Q1 2025, the average profit of domestic PDH plants was 290 yuan/ton, a 71% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the falling import propane price and relatively stable propylene price. The average operating rate was 71.73%, a 1.59% increase from the previous quarter and an 8.47% increase year - on - year [58]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, the import cost of US propane soared, and the theoretical profit of PDH plants once fell below - 5,500 yuan/ton. Enterprises turned to the Middle East for procurement, making profit recovery difficult. The operating rate dropped from 70% in March to 60% in mid - May and then rebounded to 70% after the tariff suspension in May but fell again later. As of June 12, the theoretical profit was - 357 yuan/ton [59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: In H1 2025, 2.46 million tons/year of new PDH capacities were put into operation, and another 1.45 million tons/year are expected to be launched in H2. The total new capacity in 2025 will reach 3.91 million tons, increasing the propane demand by about 2 million tons. With the concentrated release of propylene capacity in H2 and weak downstream demand, the PDH operating rate may decline [62]. 3.2.3.2 C4 Demand - **MTBE**: In H1 2025, MTBE first rose and then declined. In Q1, it was supported by costs and policies, but in Q2, the market turned sluggish due to increased supply and weak gasoline - blending demand. In H2, the situation may improve slightly during the summer peak season. The expected new production capacity in 2025 is 2.742 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 12% [64][67]. - **Maleic Anhydride**: In H1 2025, maleic anhydride showed a one - way downward trend due to over - capacity. The expected new production capacity in 2025 will exceed 1.5 million tons/year, with a growth rate of over 40% [67].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for maleic anhydride in China is expected to grow significantly due to policy support for biodegradable plastics and advancements in technology, with production projected to reach 1.409 million tons by 2024, while the market size is anticipated to reach 8.379 billion yuan [1][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Definition and Classification - Maleic anhydride (MA) is a key organic compound, ranking third among anhydrides globally, primarily used in the production of unsaturated polyester resins and various chemical intermediates [2][4]. - The production methods for maleic anhydride can be classified based on raw materials, catalyst bed state, and post-treatment processes [2]. Group 2: Current Industry Status - Domestic maleic anhydride production capacity has remained high and stable, with production reaching 907,000 tons in 2019, although it lags behind the overcapacity in phthalic anhydride [4]. - The market faced challenges before 2020 due to environmental regulations and reduced demand from the real estate sector, leading to an oversupply situation [4]. - In 2020, demand for maleic anhydride increased significantly due to government policies promoting biodegradable plastics, with production capacity expected to grow [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand - By 2024, China's maleic anhydride production is projected to be 1.409 million tons, with a demand of 1.212 million tons, indicating a significant increase in both production and demand compared to previous years [4][10]. - The export volume is expected to reach 198,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 53,000 tons from 2023 [10]. Group 4: Industry Chain - The maleic anhydride industry chain involves raw material supply, production processing, and application markets, with upstream materials primarily sourced from petrochemical and coal chemical industries [8]. - The main production methods include n-butane oxidation and benzene oxidation, with n-butane oxidation being the dominant method due to its cost-effectiveness and environmental advantages [8]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Major domestic producers include Hengli Petrochemical, Qixiang Tengda, and Wanhua Chemical, with Hengli Petrochemical becoming the largest maleic anhydride producer globally with a capacity of 840,000 tons per year [12][13]. - Qixiang Tengda holds a 15% market share in domestic maleic anhydride production and 56% of the export market share, with projected revenues of 25.219 billion yuan in 2024 [15]. - Yuxin Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 150,000 tons per year and is expanding its production capabilities, with a focus on technological innovation [17]. Group 6: Future Development Trends - The maleic anhydride market is expected to see increased competition as new companies enter the market, driven by advancements in production technology and environmental policies [19]. - The demand for maleic anhydride is anticipated to grow steadily due to its applications in high-tech fields and the increasing emphasis on environmentally friendly products [19].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The petroleum and chemical indices mostly declined last week, with the chemical raw materials index down by 1.27% and the chemical machinery index down by 0.80% [1] - The chemical pharmaceutical index increased by 3.17%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index rose by 0.45% [1] - In the petroleum sector, the petroleum processing index remained flat, while the petroleum extraction index rose by 0.29% and the petroleum trade index increased by 0.10% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices experienced slight fluctuations downward, with WTI settling at $61.53 per barrel, down by 1.54%, and Brent at $64.78 per barrel, down by 0.96% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included acrylic acid up by 10.79%, acifluorfen up by 7.69%, coal tar up by 6.72%, nitrile rubber up by 3.99%, and potassium chloride up by 3.57% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included chloroform down by 19.05%, butadiene down by 5.41%, maleic anhydride down by 4.62%, butane down by 4.5%, and propane down by 4.35% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - In the capital market, the top five rising listed chemical companies included Huide Technology up by 35.58%, Yanggu Huatai up by 32.05%, Runyang Technology up by 24.74%, Lingpai Technology up by 23.81%, and Lafang Home up by 21.93% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Yuchanxia A down by 25.91%, Jitai Co. down by 24.85%, Hongqiang Co. down by 22.46%, Sanfu Xinke down by 13.54%, and Zhongxin Fluorine Material down by 12.38% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The LPG deep processing industry is facing significant challenges due to weak downstream product performance, driven by multiple factors including declining crude oil prices, increased supply pressure, weak terminal demand, and export obstacles. Some products have stabilized temporarily through production cuts in mid to late April [1]. Industry Summary - In April, the LPG raw gas market exhibited a "rise then fall" trend, with limited month-on-month changes. Initial market optimism was driven by policy expectations, but this was later overshadowed by cost declines and weak demand [2]. - The prices of LPG deep processing downstream products generally declined in April, influenced by international crude oil price fluctuations and exacerbated supply-demand imbalances. The market remains in a state of oversupply, with significant year-on-year price drops for many products [4]. - The profit situation across various products in the LPG deep processing chain varied significantly in April. The industry is under pressure from both high costs and weak demand, leading to a negative feedback loop that compresses profit margins [7]. - The operating load rates of LPG downstream facilities have generally shown a downward trend due to high raw material costs and weak terminal product prices, forcing companies to reduce output or halt operations [9]. - Looking ahead, the LPG raw gas market is expected to remain weak, with cost pressures from international crude oil prices and cautious purchasing sentiment limiting demand. However, supply reductions due to maintenance or losses may support short-term price rebounds for some products [11].