Core Viewpoint - The current leverage level in the A-share market is stable and controllable, with significant changes in both on-market and off-market leverage since the "leverage bull" of 2014-2015 [1][2]. On-Market Leverage - Since August 11, the financing balance in the A-share market has exceeded 9 consecutive trading days, indicating active trading of leveraged funds, yet overall leverage remains stable and risks are manageable [3]. - The financing balance as a percentage of the circulating market value is significantly lower than historical peaks, maintaining between 2.23% and 2.35% since July, which is well below the historical maximum of 4.72% [6]. - The proportion of financing purchases to A-share transaction volume is at historical mid-levels, typically between 6% and 9%, and currently remains below the peak of 19.26% [6]. - The average maintenance guarantee ratio is at a high level of 286.80%, well above the warning line of 140%, indicating a safe level of leverage [7]. Off-Market Leverage - Off-market leverage has significantly shrunk, with stricter regulations in place, although there are signs of structural changes, such as an increase in inquiries and business volume for off-market options [4][8]. - Pure off-market financing is rare due to its illegal status, but there is a growing interest in off-market options, particularly bullish structures like "vanilla" options [9][11]. - Despite the emergence of off-market options, compliance risks and payout issues remain significant barriers to growth in this area [12]. - There are indications of potential violations regarding credit funds entering the market, with over ten banks issuing notices to prohibit credit card funds for stock trading, although the actual scale of credit funds entering the market is limited [5][13]. Market Indicators - The data indicates a low level of off-market leverage activity, with negative growth in entrusted loans and limited increases in trust loans, suggesting constrained growth in structured trust financing [18][19]. - The growth in A-share transaction volume aligns with the increase in on-market financing balances, indicating minimal contribution from off-market leverage [21]. - Search volume for keywords related to financing has decreased significantly, reflecting weak demand for off-market leverage [22].

Core Viewpoint - The current leverage levels in the A-share market are significantly lower than historical peaks, indicating a more stable and controlled risk environment compared to the "leverage bull" market of 2014-2015 [1][2]. Group 1: On-Site Leverage - Since August 11, the financing balance in the A-share market has exceeded 9 consecutive trading days, indicating active trading with leverage funds [2][3]. - The financing balance as a percentage of the circulating market value remains low, fluctuating between 2.23% and 2.35%, well below the historical peak of 4.72% [3][4]. - The proportion of financing purchases to A-share transaction volume is stable, typically ranging from 6% to 9%, and currently remains below the historical high of 19.26%, suggesting a healthy trading structure [3]. Group 2: Off-Site Leverage - The scale of off-site leverage has significantly shrunk, with stricter regulations in place, although there are signs of structural changes [5][6]. - There has been an increase in inquiries and business volume related to off-site options, indicating a resurgence of interest among risk-tolerant investors [6][7]. - Despite the rise in off-site options, compliance risks and payout issues remain significant barriers to expansion in this market [8]. Group 3: Credit Funds - There are indications of potential violations regarding the use of credit funds in the stock market, although the actual scale of such inflows appears limited [9][10]. - In July, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, with stock financing increasing by 27.4 billion yuan, suggesting some credit funds may be entering the market [9]. - Data indicates that the actual scale of credit funds entering the stock market is minimal, with negative growth in household short-term loans suggesting limited avenues for such inflows [10][11]. Group 4: Overall Activity of Off-Site Leverage - The overall activity level of off-site leverage is low, as indicated by negative growth in entrusted loans and limited increases in structured trust financing [12][13]. - The correlation between A-share transaction volume and on-site financing balance growth suggests that off-site leverage is contributing minimally to market activity [14]. - Search interest in keywords related to financing has decreased significantly, indicating weak demand for off-site leverage [17].