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扬言“不缺牛马,只缺驴”的缺驴论,从何而来
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-25 10:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging "donkey shortage" crisis in China, highlighting the paradox of increasing consumer demand for donkey products while the supply is dwindling due to declining breeding interest among farmers [1][4][7]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - The term "donkey shortage" has gained popularity on social media, with discussions indicating that while cattle and horses are abundant, donkeys are in short supply [1][2]. - China's donkey population has drastically decreased from 11.2 million in the early 1990s to approximately 1.46 million in 2023, primarily due to changes in agricultural practices and consumer preferences [2][6]. - The demand for donkey-derived products, such as donkey-hide gelatin (Ejiao), has surged, necessitating the slaughter of over one million donkeys annually to meet consumer needs [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The high costs associated with donkey farming, including long breeding cycles (one offspring per year and 2-3 years to reach market weight), deter farmers from raising donkeys compared to more profitable livestock like pigs and chickens [2][3][6]. - The limited economic return from donkey products compared to other livestock further contributes to the decline in domestic donkey farming [2][3]. Group 3: Import Trends - As domestic supply fails to meet rising demand, imports of donkeys are becoming increasingly important, with Pakistan emerging as a key supplier due to its large donkey population [6][7]. - The global donkey market is shifting, with countries like Ethiopia, Sudan, and Pakistan leading in donkey farming, while new regulations in Africa may impact supply chains [6][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The donkey market has experienced a U-shaped demand curve, initially declining due to mechanization and then rebounding as health trends favor donkey products [7][9]. - Companies are expected to adapt by establishing their own breeding bases and creating a dual supply model to stabilize the supply chain, addressing the current "donkey shortage" [9].