1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market opened low and trended weakly today, with stable factory shipments and prices. The supply is relatively abundant after the release of domestic daily production and national reserve supplies, while the downstream mainly relies on high - nitrogen compound fertilizers from compound fertilizer factories. The subsequent agricultural demand is expected to be concentrated around May and June. The compound fertilizer factory's开工率 reached 51.24% as of March 27, with a month - on - month increase of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The urea inventory in factories is expected to continue to decline in the short term, and the market is characterized by strong supply and demand [1]. - The futures of the urea main 2605 contract opened at 1,880 yuan/ton, closed at 1,874 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.9%. The trading volume decreased, and the positions of both long and short decreased [2]. - On March 31, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained stable at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [3][4]. - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the May contract at - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [7]. - On March 31, 2026, the national daily urea production was 219,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.67% [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The urea market opened low and trended weakly today. The factory shipments were stable, and the prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The international urea market is tight, while the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories, and the subsequent agricultural demand is expected to be concentrated around May and June. The compound fertilizer factory's开工率 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The urea inventory in factories is expected to continue to decline in the short term, and the market is in a state of strong supply and demand [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2605 contract opened at 1,880 yuan/ton, closed at 1,874 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.9%. The trading volume decreased, and the positions of both long and short decreased. Among them, Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of - 2,961 hands, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of + 458 hands, Yide Futures had a net short position of - 1,428 hands, and Galaxy Futures had a net short position of - 1,901 hands [2]. - Spot: The factory shipments were stable, and the prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipts - On March 31, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,707, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the May contract at - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On March 31, 2026, the national daily urea production was 219,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.67% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices opened lower and moved higher today, showing a weakening trend in a volatile manner. Factory quotes are firm, and market transactions are good. The state will release the national fertilizer commercial reserve to ensure fertilizer supply during the spring plowing season. The supply side is stable and strong, with sufficient market circulation of goods. The high - yield output is digested smoothly, and inventory has significantly decreased by 12.79%. With the start of downstream industrial demand, the urea market is expected to fluctuate based on domestic supply - demand fundamentals during the spring plowing season [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened lower and moved higher, with a weakening trend in a volatile manner. The state will release the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve to meet agricultural production needs during spring plowing. The supply side is stable and strong, with short - term parking and resumption of production occurring frequently, and daily output basically within 230,000 tons. High - yield output is digested smoothly, and inventory has decreased significantly by 12.79%. With the end of the Lantern Festival and the progress of the Two Sessions, downstream industrial demand is accelerating. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased by nearly 10% this week, and there is still room for load increase within the month. The urea market is expected to fluctuate based on domestic supply - demand fundamentals during the spring plowing season [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,885 yuan/ton, closed at 1,889 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The trading volume formed a positive line, and the open interest was 231,921 lots (+8,230 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 7,388 lots, and short positions increased by 8,801 lots. For example, Huatai Futures had a net long position of +2,660 lots, and Yide Futures had a net short position of - 2,174 lots [2]. Spot - Factory quotes are firm, and market transactions are good. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [1][5]. 3.3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 13, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, a net increase of 1,675 compared to the previous trading day. For example, Liaoning Jiashi increased by 75, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen (CNAGRI UR) increased by 500 [3]. 3.4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on Henan, the basis has weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the May contract is - 19 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton) [9]. Supply Data - On March 13, 2026, the national daily urea output was 221,900 tons, the same as yesterday, and the operating rate was 88.94% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the positive factors for urea are limited, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. The supply pressure remains due to the slowdown in the reduction of gas - fired plants, and the daily output is 190,000 tons. The winter storage of compound fertilizers provides demand support, but the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices restricts the upward movement of prices. The inventory is mainly being depleted in Northeast and North China for winter storage, while there is a trend of inventory accumulation in other areas. The market has limited bullish factors and mainly relies on winter storage and exports. The futures market shows a technical rebound, waiting for a correction [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market of urea opened higher and rose during the day. The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1704 yuan/ton, closed at 1721 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.24%. The trading volume increased, with the long position increasing by 6573 hands and the short position increasing by 11684 hands. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 23, 2025, was 10,532, a decrease of 349 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The spot market price is stable, mainly focused on fulfilling previous orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1610 - 1700 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end and Hebei's at the higher end [1][4]. 2. Fundamental Tracking - The basis weakened compared to the previous trading day. Taking the Henan region as the benchmark, the basis of the May contract was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [7]. - On December 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,800 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.04% [10].