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汽车电子|高阶智驾加速渗透,硬件产业链深度受益
中信证券研究· 2025-03-04 00:10
Core Viewpoint - BYD's advanced intelligent driving solutions are expected to significantly penetrate the market, with projected sales of high-level NOA models reaching nearly 3 million units by 2025, indicating a penetration rate of 60% for highway NOA and 9% for urban NOA, leading to a total of 3.46 million units and a combined penetration rate of 69%, a substantial increase from 7.2% in 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving Configuration - BYD's intelligent driving technology matrix includes three levels: 1) Tian Shen Zhi Yan A with three LiDARs and DiPilot 600, mainly used in the Yangwang brand for urban NOA 2) Tian Shen Zhi Yan B with one LiDAR and DiPilot 300, used in Tengshi and BYD brands for urban NOA 3) Tian Shen Zhi Yan C with high-definition three-camera setup and DiPilot 100, primarily in BYD models for high-speed NOA - All models priced above 100,000 yuan will be equipped with the Tian Shen Zhi Yan system, while models below this price, such as Qin PLUS DM-i, Sea Lion 0.5 DM-i, and Sea Gull, will also feature this technology, making advanced driving technology accessible at a starting price of 78,800 yuan [2] Upstream Hardware Supply Chain - The core incremental components in the hardware supply chain for intelligent driving include: 1) Main chips and domain controllers: Tian Shen Zhi Yan A uses dual NVIDIA Orin-X chips, B uses a single Orin-X, and C uses either Orin-N or Horizon J series chips 2) Cameras: All three configurations use 12 cameras, with a significant demand increase projected for 2024 and 2025, estimated at 10 million and 50 million units respectively 3) LiDAR: Tian Shen Zhi Yan A has three LiDARs, B has one, and C uses a pure vision approach, with demand expected to rise to 80,000 and 450,000 units for 2024 and 2025 respectively [3][4][5] Investment Strategy - The investment focus for 2025 is on edge AI, with BYD's automotive intelligent upgrade as a key direction. The hardware sector's core growth is anticipated in main chips, domain controllers, cameras, LiDAR, and connectors. - The investment tiers are categorized as follows: 1) First tier: Upstream components with potential supply-demand tightness and long-term product upgrade logic 2) Second tier: Components with volume growth logic, particularly in lens modules and LiDAR 3) Third tier: Components with volume growth logic and potential market share increase in connectors 4) Fourth tier: General automotive components and PCBs [7][8][9][10]