| | | | 燃料油早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/02 | 燃 料 油 日期 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 LGO-Brent M1 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 2026/02/13 364.24 414.02 -9.60 649.91 -235.89 21.51 49.78 2026/02/24 385.38 439.67 -10.15 705.91 -266.24 26.01 54.29 2026/02/25 390.33 440.81 -9.20 704.25 -263.44 25.59 50.48 2026/02/26 397.76 449.83 -9.51 726.59 -276.76 28.68 52.07 2026/02/27 399.61 457.77 -9.37 728.55 -270.78 24.78 58.16 变化 1.85 7.94 0.14 1.96 5.98 ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2026/01/26 | 344.81 | 393.32 | -10.27 | 655.75 | -262.43 | 24.28 | 48.51 | | 2026/01/27 | 348.36 | 398.84 | -11.04 | 658.65 | -259.81 | 22.80 | 50.48 | | 2026/01/28 | 357.51 | 403.54 | -10.69 | 673.15 | -269.61 | 23.85 | 46.03 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, and the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil had a slight inventory build - up, with the inventory at a historical high year - on - year. ARA's residual oil had a slight inventory drawdown, and Fujairah's residual oil had an inventory build - up [4]. - This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur fuel oil was stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil. The high - sulfur spot market tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside space was limited. The external market of low - sulfur fuel oil remained weak [4]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 342.84 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 336.61 | 335.92 | -0.69 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 397.96 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 385.89 | 385.56 | -0.33 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -11.23 | -10.45 | -10.09 | -10.43 | -10.35 | 0.08 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 639.10 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 630.80 | 633.90 | 3.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -241.14 | -236.84 | -244.62 | -244.91 | -248.34 | -3.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.50 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 22.94 | 22.94 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 55.12 | 50.80 | 48.52 | 49.28 | 49.64 | 0.36 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 360.39 | 359.16 | 356.84 | 359.12 | 357.08 | -2.04 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 366.14 | 363.46 | 363.27 | 364.49 | 364.98 | 0.49 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 428.26 | 426.98 | 426.45 | 427.95 | 426.15 | -1.80 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 82.45 | 81.65 | 81.51 | 82.07 | 82.61 | 0.54 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.37 | -7.10 | -6.79 | -6.30 | -6.58 | -0.28 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -181.87 | -177.23 | -176.72 | -179.37 | -185.16 | -5.79 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 358.10 | 358.88 | 358.34 | 359.26 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 431.74 | 429.02 | 429.37 | 431.00 | - | - | | 380 Basis | -1.50 | -1.45 | -1.65 | -1.45 | - | - | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 10.8 | -1.8 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 16.0 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 1.3 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2513 | 2510 | 2485 | 2478 | 2467 | -11 | | FU 05 | 2578 | 2566 | 2520 | 2526 | 2507 | -19 | | FU 09 | 2546 | 2533 | 2498 | 2500 | 2487 | -13 | | FU 01 - 05 | -65 | -56 | -35 | -48 | -40 | 8 | | FU 05 - 09 | 32 | 33 | 22 | 26 | 20 | -6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 33 | 23 | 13 | 22 | 20 | -2 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3159 | 3166 | 3088 | 3136 | 3120 | -16 | | LU 05 | 3087 | 3074 | 3041 | 3052 | 3066 | 14 | | LU 09 | 3112 | 3090 | 3056 | 3073 | 3085 | 12 | | LU 01 - 05 | 72 | 92 | 47 | 84 | 54 | -30 | | LU 05 - 09 | -25 | -16 | -15 | -21 | -19 | 2 | | LU 09 - 01 | -47 | -76 | -32 | -63 | -35 | 28 | [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels. The European high - sulfur cracking spread weakened, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore fluctuated at a historical low, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels, and the VLSFO cracking spread in Singapore further weakened [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore residual fuel oil stocks increased, high - sulfur floating storage stocks increased, ARA residual fuel oil stocks increased significantly, Fujairah residual fuel oil stocks continued to increase significantly, high - sulfur floating storage stocks decreased, and EIA residual fuel oil stocks decreased [3][4]. - This week, the cracking spreads of foreign gasoline and diesel continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, it shut down, providing support for foreign low - sulfur fuel oil, but the short - term upside space is limited [4]. - Global residual fuel oil has entered the off - season with inventory accumulation. The foreign cracking spread is affected by crude oil price fluctuations, and the spot market shows no improvement, so it is regarded as bearish. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, but there is no driving force for now [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, and other related swap products changed from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 increased by 14.80, and the Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 increased by 9.01 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap and Spot Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, and other swap products changed from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 15.19 [1]. - The FOB prices of Singapore 380cst and FOB VLSFO in the spot market also changed during the same period. The FOB 380cst increased by 5.22, while the FOB VLSFO decreased by 2.42 [2]. Domestic Fuel Oil Futures Data - For domestic FU futures, from December 11 to December 17, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 changed. For example, FU 01 increased by 16 [2]. - For domestic LU futures, from December 11 to December 17, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased. For example, LU 01 decreased by 36 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The price difference between high and low sulfur fuels is at a historically low level compared to the same period. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, the residue oil in Singapore decreased, the high-sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. [3] - The heavy fuel inventory in Fujairah increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons. The high-sulfur floating storage decreased, but it was still at a historically high level compared to the same period. The ARA port decreased its inventory, and the inventory was at a historically low level compared to the same period. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. The shipment from Saudi Arabia decreased month-on-month, and the shipment from the UAE increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil began to accumulate inventory globally. The crack spread of Singapore is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as sanctions on Russia. The domestic and international prices of FU mainly fluctuated, and weakened slightly this week. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 365.63 to 400.88, with a change of 4.13. The price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 394.21 to 424.62, with a change of 3.74. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 362.82 to 394.15, with a change of 9.62. The price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 370.44 to 402.15, with a change of 9.62. The price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 420.94 to 448.43, with a change of 6.17. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased from - to 392.86, with a change of 8.86. The FOB price of VLSFO increased from - to 445.23, with a change of 6.73. [2] Domestic FU Fuel Oil Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2646 to 2814, with a change of 62. The price of FU 05 increased from 2616 to 2741, with a change of 40. The price of FU 09 increased from 2575 to 2663, with a change of 23. [2] Domestic LU Fuel Oil Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 3081 to 3224, with a change of 31. The price of LU 05 increased from 3117 to 3230, with a change of 10. The price of LU 09 increased from 3139 to 3235, with a change of 1. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking was volatile. Crude oil prices rose significantly. High - sulfur oil with a large proportion of Iranian supply performed well in oil product profits. The 380 - month spread was volatile, the 7 - 8 spread was $11.5, the basis strengthened, and the FU internal and external near - and far - month contracts were differentiated. The Singapore 0.5 cracking declined, the month spread strengthened month - on - month, and the basis strengthened. Singapore's on - shore inventory continued to accumulate, high - sulfur floating storage accumulated, low - sulfur floating storage fluctuated at a low level, ARA slightly reduced inventory, floating storage inventory fluctuated, Fujairah's on - shore inventory accumulated, and floating storage increased significantly. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month - on - month. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions. High - sulfur oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month contracts of FU are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. The subsequent focus is on Middle - East shipments, and the large downward drive inside and outside has decreased. LU production increased month - on - month [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by -$0.69, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by -$3.04, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by $0.15, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by $2.86, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$5.90, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -$0.02, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -$2.35 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by $3.70, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by $3.47, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by $8.86, Singapore GO M1 changed by $2.67, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by -$1.17, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$10.90 [2] Spot Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the FOB 380cst price in Singapore changed by $1.91, FOB VLSFO changed by $9.11, the 380 basis changed by -$0.48, the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by -$1.3, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed by $1.4 [3] Domestic FU Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, FU 01 changed by 91, FU 05 changed by 80, FU 09 changed by 86, FU 01 - 05 changed by 11, FU 05 - 09 changed by -6, and FU 09 - 01 changed by -5 [3] Domestic LU Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, LU 01 changed by 90, LU 05 changed by -44, LU 09 changed by 124, LU 01 - 05 changed by 134, LU 05 - 09 changed by -168, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 34 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread declined, the 380-month spread decreased, and the basis strengthened. The low-sulfur crack spread weakened in a volatile manner, the near-term month spread slightly weakened, and the basis weakened. This week, inventories in Singapore continued to accumulate, inventories in ARA ports continued to accumulate, and US residual oil inventories decreased slightly. Recently, the low-sulfur valuation has shown that there is room for downward correction in the crack spread and the inter-month spread after the supply recovers. The high-sulfur crack spread has started to loosen, and the game in the overseas market remains strong. This year, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has declined significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high-sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year-on-year, and Singapore remained basically flat. The total marine fuel was weaker year-on-year. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities in the future. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. High-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak season. Pay attention to the opportunity for the high-sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium term. The domestic production schedule is relatively high, and the idea of shorting LU at high levels both domestically and overseas remains unchanged. [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 increased from 397.00 to 416.62, with a change of 9.39; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 increased from 450.35 to 469.90, with a change of 11.94; the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 decreased from -2.45 to -3.10, with a change of -0.14; the price of Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 599.39 to 628.77, with a change of 12.17; the Rotterdam VLSFO-GO M1 decreased from -149.04 to -158.87, with a change of -0.23; the LGO-Brent M1 remained unchanged at 17.90; the Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 increased from 53.35 to 53.28, with a change of 2.55 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 412.03 to 430.99, with a change of 10.92; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 418.53 to 431.27, with a change of 4.30; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 478.40 to 501.76, with a change of 15.62; the price of Singapore GO M1 increased from 79.75 to 84.48, with a change of 2.50; the Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 decreased from 0.57 to -0.91, with a change of -0.63; the Singapore VLSFO-GO M1 decreased from -111.75 to -123.39, with a change of -2.88 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the FOB 380cst decreased from 435.70 to 435.55, with a change of -5.55; the FOB VLSFO increased from 489.42 to 499.42, with a change of 2.64; the 380 basis increased from 10.50 to 12.95, with a change of 0.70; the high-sulfur domestic and overseas price difference decreased from 6.7 to 6.8, with a change of -0.2; the low-sulfur domestic and overseas price difference increased from 18.4 to 17.6, with a change of 1.1 [2] Domestic FU Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the FU 01 remained unchanged at 2780; the FU 05 increased from 2657 to 2727, with a change of 10; the FU 09 decreased from 2853 to 2912, with a change of -12; the FU 01-05 decreased from 55 to 53, with a change of -10; the FU 05-09 increased from -196 to -185, with a change of 22; the FU 09-01 decreased from 141 to 132, with a change of -12 [2] Domestic LU Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the LU 01 decreased from 3356 to 3414, with a change of -17; the LU 05 decreased from 3280 to 3348, with a change of -10; the LU 09 increased from 3450 to 3524, with a change of 6; the LU 01-05 decreased from 76 to 66, with a change of -7; the LU 05-09 decreased from -170 to -176, with a change of -16; the LU 09-01 increased from 94 to 110, with a change of 23 [3]