大摩分析师团队在针对大中华区科技半导体的报告中指出，"传统存储"市场正在酝酿一场供需错配的完 美风暴。对于仍在犹豫是否该在近期反弹中落袋为安的投资者，大摩的结论异常明确：周期才刚刚开 始，现在下车为时尚早。 大摩预计，2026年第一季度的合约价格可能飙升超过100%。目前的供需紧张 程度令人咋舌，尤其是16Gb DDR4产品严重短缺，渠道库存已接近于零。同时，减产效应正在全面扩 散至Flash产品。大摩预测，2026年NOR的供应缺口将从低至中个位数扩大到"高个位数"，并推动其价 格在明年一季度上涨超过20%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global DRAM Sales Forecast**: The 2026 global DRAM sales forecast has been revised upward from US$154 billion to US$170 billion, representing a 36% year-over-year increase. This revision is based on a 10% higher average selling price (ASP) assumption, which is a 17% increase year-over-year, compared to a previous estimate of 7% [1][9] - **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Forecast**: The 2026 HBM forecast remains at US$55 billion, with an assumed 6% ASP cut, which is more optimistic than the consensus expectation of a 20%+ decline. The forecast includes a 66% bit growth and limited HBM4 sales, accounting for 15% of total sales [1] Company-Specific Insights - **SK Hynix Valuation**: The price objective for SK Hynix has been raised from W470,000 to W700,000, using a 3.3x 2026E price-to-book (P/B) ratio, compared to a historical peak of nearly 2.0x. This valuation is supported by comparisons to US peer Micron, which trades at over 3.0x P/B, and reflects a more optimistic sentiment for memory stocks due to anticipated multi-year growth driven by AI [2] - **Samsung Electronics Comparison**: Some investors believe Samsung Electronics is more attractive than Hynix due to a lower 2026E P/B in the mid-1.0x range. However, Samsung's overall operating profit includes non-DRAM assets, which have lower growth and margins compared to Hynix's DRAM business [2] Pricing Dynamics - **DRAM Spot Price Analysis**: The current DRAM spot price is considered abnormally high, with historical averages around US$5 per unit. Recent prices for 16Gb DDR4 and DDR5 have surged to US$20 and above, indicating a potential price correction is due. Despite this, solid chip orders persist against tight supply conditions [3][6] - **Recent Price Increases**: Spot-market prices for DDR5 increased by 22%, DDR4 by 15%, and NAND by 28% week-over-week. The current prices for 16Gb DDR5 and DDR4 are US$12.6 and US$20.6, respectively, reflecting significant year-over-year increases of 163% and 537% [6] Market Trends and Projections - **Memory Market Growth**: The global memory market is expected to grow significantly, with DRAM sales projected to increase by 42% year-over-year in 2025, following an 80%+ increase in 2024. NAND sales are expected to recover strongly in 2026 with an 18% increase [8] - **Product Shipment Recovery**: Shipments for servers, SSDs, and smartphones are showing strong recovery, with promising growth in the automotive sector as well [10] Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 2025, inventory levels for both DRAM and NAND are reported to be only 3-4 weeks, which is lower than the normal range of 1-2 months, indicating potential supply constraints [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the optimistic outlook for the DRAM market, company-specific valuations, pricing dynamics, and overall market trends.