【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 作者 Johnny Zhang，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公 众号对文中观点结论认可。 2025 年底，在持续政策扶持和机构唱多的双重驱动下，不少"AI 概念股"走出了一波陡峭的暴 涨行情。 但尴尬的是，这些公司的业绩却迟迟没有跟上。 股价先于业绩起飞，在市场里其实是常有的 事，但脱离当前基本面去赌长期增长，本身就风险不小。 随着公司盈利下滑，市盈率这类前瞻估值指标会变得高得离谱，有时候资金跟风炒作的热度， 甚至能把股价推到基本面完全撑不起的高度。 在 2025 年四季度财报发布前，英特尔（INTC）已经从2025年8月的低点飙涨了180%。 要知道，这段时间里英特尔营收不过是持平或个位数低速增长，自由现金流更是连续第四年下 滑。 市场之所以愿意买单，是押注它的数据中心和晶圆代工业务能成功翻身。 财报发布前，市场情绪一片火热，投资者都觉得英特尔已经熬过了增长低谷，这才把股价越推 越高。可等到公司发布 2026 财年一季度的疲软业绩指引后，大家才被泼了一盆冷水。 公司明确表示，本季度营收会下滑，非公认会计准则下的每股收益基本持平，毛利率还会大 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices declining, while the Nasdaq rose slightly. The Dow fell by 0.94% to 48,996.08 points, and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.34% to 6,920.93 points, whereas the Nasdaq increased by 0.16% to 23,584.27 points [2]. Economic Data - The ADP employment report for December 2025 indicated an increase of 41,000 jobs, which was below the expected increase of 47,000 jobs. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 jobs to a decrease of 29,000 jobs. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 was reported at 54.4, exceeding the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6. This data suggests a resilient service sector, a weak manufacturing sector, and moderate employment recovery with insufficient momentum [2]. Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached a market capitalization of $388.92 billion, surpassing Apple, which had a market cap of $384.70 billion, marking the first time in seven years that Google has outpaced Apple [4][5]. - Intel experienced a significant intraday increase of over 10%, closing up 6.47% at $42.63 per share, with a total market capitalization of $203.3 billion [8][9]. - Intel's CEO emphasized the company's commitment to delivering its first 18A process products by 2025, indicating a strategic turning point for the industry and Intel in 2026, suggesting a new phase in technology iteration and market dynamics [10]. - At CES, Intel officially launched a series of AI PC chips based on the 18A process technology, which is seen as a critical milestone for the company's manufacturing revival and technological leadership. This new generation of chips features groundbreaking transistor architecture and power design, marking Intel's first large-scale production of the 18A process and aiming to reclaim market share from AMD [11].

Market Overview - The overall market risk appetite was influenced by geopolitical factors and mixed market data, resulting in mixed performance among major U.S. stock indices. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices closed down, while the Nasdaq saw a slight increase [2] - As of the market close, the Dow Jones fell by 0.94% to 48,996.08 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.34% to 6,920.93 points, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.16% to 23,584.27 points [2] Economic Data - In December 2025, the ADP employment number in the U.S. increased by 41,000, which was below the expected increase of 47,000. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 to a decrease of 29,000 [4] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for December 2025 was reported at 54.4, exceeding the expectation of 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6, indicating resilience in the service sector while manufacturing remains weak [4] Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, surpassed Apple in market capitalization for the first time in seven years, reaching a market value of $388.92 billion compared to Apple's $384.70 billion [5][6] - Intel experienced a significant intraday increase of over 10%, closing up 6.47% at $42.63 per share, with a total market capitalization of $203.3 billion [9][10] - Intel's CEO emphasized the company's commitment to delivering its first 18A process products by 2025, indicating a strategic turning point for the industry and Intel [11] - At CES, Intel officially launched its AI PC chip series based on the 18A process technology, marking a critical milestone in the company's manufacturing revival and technological leadership [13]