上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美东时间1月7日，地缘政治因素叠加市场数据喜忧参半影响市场整体风险偏好，美股三大指 数涨跌不一，道指、标普500指数收跌，纳指收涨。 截至收盘，道指跌0.94%，报48996.08点；标普500指数跌0.34%，报6920.93点；纳指涨 0.16%，报23584.27点。 经济数据方面，美国2025年12月ADP就业人数增4.1万人，预期增4.7万人，前值由降3.2万 人修正为降2.9万人。美国2025年12月ISM非制造业PMI为54.4，预期为52.3，前值为 52.6。数据显示美国经济呈现服务业韧性强、制造业疲软、就业温和止跌但动能不足的态 势。 宏观方面，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将从委内瑞拉获得5000万桶此前受制裁的石油，这些 石油将由美国代表委内瑞拉进行销售。 英特尔盘中一度大涨超10% 美东时间1月7日，英特尔盘中一度大涨超10%，之后涨幅回落。截至收盘，英特尔涨 6.47%，报42.63美元/股，最新总市值为2033亿美元。 英特尔CEO陈立武强调，公司已兑现"2025年交付首批18A工艺产品"的承诺 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies analysts predict that large-cap tech stocks may underperform small-cap stocks in the coming years due to the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Since 1990, during periods of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the S&P 500 equal-weight index has outperformed the traditional market-cap weighted index [1] - In the past four rate-cut cycles, the S&P 500 equal-weight index outperformed the traditional S&P 500 index by 0.6% in one year, approximately 4% in two years, and averaged 12.5% in four years [1] - The greater the rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the better the performance of the equal-weight index [1] Group 2: Current Market Trends - Following the recent "non-farm payroll shock," there has been an adjustment in rate cut expectations, with the Nasdaq 100 index dropping by 2% and the S&P 500 index by 1.6%, while the S&P 500 equal-weight index only fell by 1% [1] - The next Federal Reserve rate cut is anticipated to occur when the weight of tech giants in the index reaches a record high due to "crowded trades" [1] - Jefferies suggests that it may be time to rotate out of large-cap tech stocks, as value and small-cap stocks tend to perform better over the long term [1] Group 3: Valuation Discrepancies - Jefferies' strategy team highlights a significant valuation gap in the U.S. stock market, with the highest and lowest valuation groups in the S&P 500 index differing by 26, which is at the 87th percentile of observations since 2009 [1] - The crowded nature of tech stocks presents more downside risk, according to Jefferies [1] Group 4: Investor Behavior - This year, tech giants have performed well, leading investors to favor large-cap stocks, with a recent trend of small and mid-cap stocks rotating into large-cap stocks [1] - The Russell 2000 ETF experienced an outflow of $4.9 billion last week [1] - Following the slowdown in non-farm payroll data, market policy expectations have shifted significantly, with a two-thirds probability of three rate cuts by the end of January next year [1]