Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Zhifei Biological, particularly in the sales of the nine-valent HPV vaccine, amid increasing competition and declining performance metrics [1][4][8]. Group 1: Sales and Market Challenges - Zhifei Biological has experienced severe sales difficulties with the nine-valent HPV vaccine, leading to significant inventory issues and delayed payments, resulting in a drastic decline in performance over the past year [1][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 26 billion yuan in 2025, a 50% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 2 billion yuan, down 75% from the previous year [8]. - The introduction of a competing nine-valent HPV vaccine by Wantai Biological has intensified market competition, prompting Zhifei to initiate promotional activities to boost sales [3][29]. Group 2: Inventory and Financial Management - As of the first quarter of 2025, Zhifei's accounts receivable decreased from 16.3 billion yuan to 14.6 billion yuan, indicating ongoing efforts to manage financial pressures [14]. - The company is focusing on "de-stocking, collecting payments, and reducing liabilities" as core strategies to mitigate operational risks [12]. - Inventory issues are compounded by a significant amount of unsold products, with a large portion being imported vaccines, leading to increased financial strain [17][18]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Zhifei Biological has outlined three main strategies to address market challenges: enhancing communication with partners, adjusting promotional policies, and strengthening risk control measures [10][11]. - The company has initiated a large-scale promotional campaign, including free vaccination offers, to stimulate demand and improve vaccination rates [2][5]. - Despite these efforts, there are concerns about the effectiveness of their promotional strategies, particularly in reaching target demographics and adapting to market needs [20][21]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Wantai Biological's entry into the market expected to create additional pressure on Zhifei, which has already been struggling with sales [26][30]. - Experts suggest that the market for the nine-valent HPV vaccine may face challenges due to a saturated customer base, as many potential recipients have already completed their vaccinations [30][31]. - The pricing strategy of Wantai Biological is anticipated to be significantly lower than that of imported vaccines, potentially affecting Zhifei's market share [27][32].

Industry Overview - The vaccine industry is experiencing a significant decline in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with total revenue dropping from 1,637 billion in 2023 to 1,283 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%, the first negative growth in five years [1] - Net profit in the industry has decreased from a peak of 309 billion in 2021 to 120 billion in 2024, a reduction of 61%, with profit margins declining from 21.7% in 2021 to 9.4% in 2024, indicating increased cost pressures [1] Company Performance - Leading companies show significant performance divergence; TianTan Bio and Tibet Pharmaceutical have reported growth, with TianTan Bio achieving 60 billion in revenue for 2024, a 17.6% increase, and a net profit of 15 billion, up 36.4% [3] - In contrast, Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological have faced substantial declines due to intensified competition in the HPV vaccine market, with Zhifei's revenue plummeting from 529 billion in 2023 to 260 billion in 2024, a 50.8% drop, and net profit falling from 80 billion to 20 billion, a 75% decrease [3] - Wantai Biological's net profit decreased from 47 billion in 2022 to approximately 1 billion in 2024, with a drop in gross margin from 89% to 66% [3] Cost and Profitability Trends - The median sales expense ratio in the industry has increased from 48% in 2020 to 58% in 2024, with over half of the companies exceeding a 50% expense ratio [3] - Changchun High-tech's sales expense ratio rose from 44% in 2023 to 57% in 2024, with net profit margin declining from 31% to 18.7% [3] - Kanghua Biological maintained a high gross margin of 93%, but its expense ratio increased from 47% to 54%, leading to a decrease in net profit margin from 33% to 21% [3] Vaccine Approval Trends - In 2024, most vaccine varieties saw a decline in batch approvals, with Zhifei Biological's HPV vaccines experiencing significant drops in approvals, including a 95% decrease for the four-valent HPV vaccine [4] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a mixed performance in vaccine approvals, with the recombinant herpes vaccine seeing a 54% decline in batch approvals, while the two-valent HPV vaccine saw a 367% increase [4] Specific Vaccine Performance - Rabies vaccines showed good overall approval growth, with Vero cell rabies vaccines achieving 199 batch approvals, a 24% increase [5] - The flu vaccine approvals in the first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase of 500%, with the three-valent flu vaccine experiencing a 1300% increase in approvals [5] - The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine approvals remained stable, while the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine saw a 71% decline [5]