本周，万泰生物九价HPV疫苗在上海开打。 万泰生物与默沙东在九价HPV疫苗领域竞争的序幕已经拉开。HPV疫苗对预防宫颈癌等疾病，挽救数以 万计的生命具有重大意义。目前在中国推出九价疫苗的企业只有这两家。此前，默沙东已经独占这个市 场七年时间，拿走了利润最丰厚的那部分市场。 "此前抢打HPV疫苗的人，一是对健康很关注，第二是有钱，对价格不敏感。这部分人的市场是进口疫 苗吃到的部分，类似于草莓的尖尖，最甜的那部分。"一家疫苗研发企业的相关负责人王浩对第一财经 记者表示。 过去七年时间里，默沙东独占了中国九价HPV疫苗市场。目前北上广深四个一线城市的接种率已经不 低，每个月接种人数已经自高峰期大幅滑落。比如，现在上海医大医院每月接种人数已经从2000例降至 200例左右。 现在，默沙东的代理商智飞生物已经累积了太多的库存。万泰生物以更低售价撬动价格敏感型市场。但 现在疫苗企业的商业回报，已经越来越不明晰，尤其是那些产品尚在临床阶段的企业。摆在一些企业面 前的难题在于，正在进行的二价、九价HPV疫苗临床试验，应该停下来吗？ 九价疫苗争锋 12月8日上午，国产九价HPV疫苗在上海医大医院正式开打。这款疫苗由万泰生物研发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Zhifei Biological has significantly declined, with a notable drop in revenue and profit, raising concerns about its future growth potential in the saturated HPV vaccine market [4][6][9]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Zhifei Biological reported a revenue decrease of 40% to 2.705 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 6.01 billion yuan, marking a 556.79% decline [9]. - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 7.627 billion yuan, down 66.53% year-on-year, and recorded a net profit loss of 1.206 billion yuan, a shift from profit to loss [9][10]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities surged by 201.18% to 2.985 billion yuan due to reduced payments for agency product purchases [11]. - Sales expenses decreased by 16.57% to 1.615 billion yuan, while R&D expenses fell by nearly 10% to 669 million yuan, which may impact the competitiveness of its products [12]. Market Challenges - The HPV vaccine market is becoming saturated, leading to a significant decline in sales for Zhifei Biological's key products [6][22]. - The company’s four-valent HPV vaccine saw a batch issuance volume drop to zero, while the nine-valent HPV vaccine issuance fell by 76.8% to approximately 4.24 million doses [24]. - The performance of the newly anticipated shingles vaccine has also been underwhelming, with only about 570,000 doses issued, a decrease of 64.24% [24]. Ownership and Dividends - Zhifei Biological has a history of generous dividends, with a total of 15 distributions amounting to 7.318 billion yuan since 2010, resulting in a dividend rate of 20.7% [13][14]. - Despite a significant drop in profits, the company distributed 479 million yuan in dividends last year [14]. Historical Context - Zhifei Biological was founded by Jiang Rensheng, who transitioned from a rural teacher to a prominent figure in the vaccine industry, leading to substantial growth in the company's revenue and market presence [25][30][36]. - The company experienced rapid growth after securing exclusive rights to distribute the four-valent HPV vaccine, with revenues soaring from 446 million yuan in 2016 to 52.918 billion yuan in 2023 [37][38]. Current Valuation - As of November 21, Zhifei Biological's stock price was 20.19 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 48.3 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of over 300 billion yuan from its peak in 2021 [7][40].

Core Insights - The wealth of the Jiang Rensheng family, associated with Zhifei Biological, has reached 42 billion yuan, making them the richest in Chongqing, despite a 4% increase from the previous year, their wealth has decreased by nearly 100 billion yuan compared to 2021 [2][35] - Zhifei Biological has reported a significant decline in performance, with a 66.53% drop in revenue and a net profit loss of 1.206 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking the first time the company has reported a loss in this period since its listing [3][4][35] Financial Performance - In Q3, Zhifei Biological's revenue fell by 40% to 2.705 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 601 million yuan, reflecting a 556.79% decline [4][5] - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 7.627 billion yuan, down 66.53%, and a net profit loss of 1.206 billion yuan, a shift from profit to loss [4][5] - The company's cash flow from operating activities increased by 201.18% to 2.985 billion yuan due to reduced payments for agency product purchases [6] - Sales expenses decreased by 16.57% to 1.615 billion yuan, while R&D expenses fell by nearly 10% to 669 million yuan, which may impact the competitiveness of its products [7] Market Challenges - The decline in revenue is attributed to unmet market sales expectations, particularly in the HPV vaccine market, which is becoming saturated [5][11] - The company has seen a significant drop in the issuance of its HPV vaccines, with the four-valent HPV vaccine's issuance dropping to zero and the nine-valent vaccine's issuance down by 76.8% [16][18] - The performance of the company's restructured shingles vaccine has also been underwhelming, with only about 570,000 doses issued, a decrease of 64.24% [18] Ownership and Dividends - Jiang Rensheng and his son hold 48.44% and 5.41% of Zhifei Biological's shares, respectively, allowing them to benefit significantly from dividends [9] - The company has a history of generous dividends, totaling 7.318 billion yuan since 2010, with a dividend rate of 20.7%, although there are no plans for dividends this year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in China's national immunization program starting from November 10, 2025, will allow eligible residents to receive the vaccine for free, significantly enhancing public health efforts against cervical cancer and related diseases [1][2][4]. Group 1: Policy and Implementation - The HPV vaccine will be provided free of charge to girls born on or after November 10, 2011, who are 13 years old, with a recommended two-dose schedule [4][6]. - The addition of the HPV vaccine increases the total number of vaccines in the national immunization program to 15, which aims to improve vaccination rates and public health [2][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The procurement price of the bivalent HPV vaccine has decreased significantly, with a reported price of 86 yuan per dose in March 2024 and a budgeted price of 27.5 yuan per dose for 2025 [5]. - The government’s centralized procurement is expected to drive a substantial increase in HPV vaccine sales and market penetration, benefiting companies like Watson Bio, which has sufficient production capacity to meet demand [5][6]. Group 3: Health Benefits and Efficacy - Vaccination can prevent over 70% of cervical cancer cases and reduce the incidence of other HPV-related diseases, as evidenced by experiences from other countries [4][6]. - Research indicates that girls aged 9-14 produce antibody levels more than twice that of those over 15 when vaccinated, making this age group a strategic target for vaccination [6][9]. Group 4: Vaccine Options and Recommendations - There are three types of HPV vaccines available: bivalent, quadrivalent, and nonavalent, with the nonavalent vaccine providing the broadest protection against various HPV strains [7][9]. - The guidelines suggest that women who have completed the bivalent or quadrivalent vaccination do not need to receive the nonavalent vaccine unless they choose to do so based on personal circumstances [9].

Core Insights - The company reported its worst quarterly results in a decade, with revenue of 7.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.06%, and a net loss of 6.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 156.1% [1] Group 1: Dependency on Agency Model - The end of the "easy profit era" for HPV vaccines is evident as the company, once benefiting from being the exclusive agent for Merck's HPV vaccine in China, faces declining sales due to increased competition and market saturation [1] - The approval of domestic nine-valent HPV vaccines in June 2025 and the inclusion of HPV vaccines in national immunization programs further compress the market for self-paid high-priced HPV vaccines [1] - The company experienced a 76.8% year-on-year decline in the batch issuance of the nine-valent HPV vaccine in the first half of 2025, with zero issuance for the four-valent HPV vaccine [1] Group 2: Struggles with Self-Developed Products - The company is struggling to transition to an innovative enterprise, as its self-developed products lack competitiveness, with zero batch issuance for the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine in the first half of the year [2] - The company faces intense price competition, with competitors offering the pneumonia vaccine at a significantly lower price of 25 yuan compared to the market price of 200 yuan [2] Group 3: Challenges in Transformation and Financial Health - To accelerate its transformation, the company invested 593 million yuan to acquire a controlling stake in Chen'an Biotech, entering the GLP-1 drug market, which is already highly competitive with 21 GLP-1 drugs either on the market or in late-stage development as of July 2025 [3] - The company has high accounts receivable and inventory, amounting to 12.814 billion yuan and 20.246 billion yuan respectively, which together account for over 70% of total assets, posing a risk of financial strain if not managed effectively [3] Conclusion - The company's difficulties reflect the broader challenge faced by Chinese vaccine companies in transitioning from a channel-driven model to an innovation-driven one, emphasizing the need for rapid commercialization of self-developed products and optimization of asset structure to return to a growth trajectory [4]

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is set to significantly reduce disease burden and enhance public health, while intensifying market competition and accelerating industry restructuring [2][6]. Group 1: National Immunization Program - The National Health Commission and seven other departments announced that the HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program starting November 10, 2025, providing free vaccinations for girls born after November 10, 2011, who are at least 13 years old [1][7]. - Approximately 60% of eligible girls in China have already benefited from local government initiatives providing free HPV vaccinations [1][6]. - The program aims to address the rising incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in China, particularly among younger women [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The government procurement project for the HPV vaccine has a budget of approximately 425 million yuan, with a total of 15.4465 million doses planned, and a maximum price of 27.5 yuan per dose [10][12]. - Currently, three bivalent HPV vaccines are approved in China, with increasing competition as domestic products enter the market, challenging the previous foreign monopolies [10][12]. - The HPV vaccine market is experiencing intensified competition, leading to structural adjustments within the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Major companies in the HPV vaccine market, such as Wantai Biological Pharmacy and Watson Bio, are facing significant revenue declines, with Wantai's revenue dropping by 23.09% in the first three quarters of 2023 [12][13]. - Watson Bio's revenue also decreased by 19.73% in the same period, indicating a challenging financial environment for leading firms [12][13]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth potential of the HPV vaccine market remains strong, with projections estimating the market size to reach 69 billion yuan by 2030 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is expected to significantly reduce the disease burden and improve public health, while also intensifying market competition and accelerating industry restructuring [2][4]. Group 1: National Immunization Program - The National Health Commission and other departments have announced that starting from November 10, 2025, the HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program, providing free vaccinations for girls born after November 10, 2011, who are at least 13 years old [1][5]. - Currently, three types of bivalent HPV vaccines are approved in China, including those from WanTai Bio and Watson Bio, as well as GSK's Cervarix [1][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The government procurement project for the bivalent HPV vaccine has a budget of approximately 425 million yuan, with a total of 15.4465 million doses planned, indicating a competitive landscape with only two manufacturers involved [8]. - The HPV vaccine market in China is experiencing increased competition, with prices for bivalent vaccines dropping significantly; for instance, the price fell from 329 yuan at launch to as low as 27.5 yuan in recent government procurement projects [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Major companies like WanTai Bio and Watson Bio are facing significant revenue declines, with WanTai's revenue dropping by 23.09% in the first three quarters of 2023, marking its first loss since going public [10]. - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term growth potential of the HPV vaccine market remains strong, with projections indicating the market could grow from 13.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 69 billion yuan by 2030 [10].

Group 1: HPV Vaccine Inclusion in National Immunization Program - The Chinese government has decided to include the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program starting from November 10, 2025, allowing eligible girls to receive the vaccine for free [1][2] - This initiative is a significant step towards China's commitment to eliminate cervical cancer by 2030, as outlined in the global strategy by the World Health Organization [1][3] Group 2: Target Population and Vaccination Details - Girls born after November 10, 2011, who are at least 13 years old will be eligible for two doses of the bivalent HPV vaccine, with a six-month interval between doses [2] - Local health authorities are required to assess the number of eligible girls and their previous vaccination status, and to set up vaccination units accordingly [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Production - The centralized procurement project for the bivalent HPV vaccine has a budget of approximately 425 million yuan, with a total quantity of 15.4465 million doses [8] - Only two companies are specified to produce the bivalent HPV vaccine for the national immunization program, with six HPV vaccines currently available in China, including three bivalent vaccines [10] - Domestic companies, such as Wantai Biological Pharmacy and Watson Biotech, have successfully launched their bivalent HPV vaccines, contributing to a more competitive market landscape [10][11] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The domestic HPV vaccine market is becoming increasingly diversified, with imported products like Merck's nine-valent HPV vaccine and four-valent HPV vaccine leading the high-priced segment [11] - New entrants, such as China National Pharmaceutical Group's four-valent HPV vaccine, have recently received approval, indicating a shift in market dynamics [11]

Group 1 - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program marks a significant breakthrough in public health in China, with over 10 million eligible girls expected to benefit annually from the free vaccination policy starting November 10, 2025 [1][2] - The two-valent HPV vaccine can prevent approximately 70% of cervical cancer cases, which is a major advancement in cervical cancer prevention [1][5] - The market demand for HPV vaccines is projected to reach tens of millions of doses annually, with the market size expected to exceed 10 billion RMB, indicating a substantial growth opportunity for domestic vaccine manufacturers [1][5][6] Group 2 - The government has allocated a budget of approximately 425 million RMB for the centralized procurement of the two-valent HPV vaccine, with an estimated procurement price of 27.5 RMB per dose [5] - The total market size for the national immunization program from 2025 to 2030 is estimated to be around 3.8 billion RMB, which includes both new eligible girls and existing populations needing booster shots [5][6] - The policy is expected to enhance public awareness and willingness to receive HPV vaccinations, potentially increasing demand for self-paid vaccinations among other age groups [5][6] Group 3 - Domestic vaccine companies such as Wantai Biological Pharmacy and Watson Bio are leading the charge in the HPV vaccine market, with significant advancements in technology and production capacity [6][8] - Wantai Biological's two-valent HPV vaccine was the first domestically produced vaccine to break the monopoly of imported vaccines, and the company has also developed the first nine-valent HPV vaccine in China [8][9] - The competition among domestic companies is expected to ensure supply security and drive technological innovation, while also reducing costs and enhancing industry safety and self-sufficiency [9]

Core Viewpoint - Zhifei Biological's Q3 2025 report shows a continuous recovery in operating income, indicating a positive trend in the company's financial health and operational performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zhifei Biological achieved operating income of 2.705 billion yuan, a 6.29% increase from Q2, marking two consecutive quarters of positive growth [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 2.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 201.18%, maintaining positive cash flow for three consecutive reporting periods [3]. - Accounts receivable and inventory decreased by 5.21% and 9.85% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting improved operational efficiency [3]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is expanding its product portfolio with multiple self-developed products and has received approvals for new indications for its exclusive agency products, including the four-valent and nine-valent HPV vaccines for males [3][4]. - The restructured shingles vaccine has also been approved for new target groups, significantly increasing its market potential, especially given the high burden of shingles in China [4]. - Zhifei Biological has 34 self-developed projects, with 21 in various stages of clinical trials and regulatory submissions, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [4][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is optimizing its marketing strategies and inventory turnover, contributing to a stabilization in revenue [3]. - Zhifei Biological is enhancing its integrated "prevention & treatment" approach through its subsidiary, aiming to leverage advancements in GLP-1 class drugs for weight loss and diabetes management [5]. - The company is actively pursuing global market opportunities, focusing on high-quality innovative products to expand its international presence [5][6].